Worst Arms in Baseball

[reillymcshane]

I saw this article on Fangraphs - a 15 year review of the worst arms in baseball. Khris Davis is the worst - hands down. In fact, Davis is have the worst season of any 'arm' in the last 15 years (even Juan Pierre beats him!).

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/instagraphs/good-lord-khris-davis/

 

The study uses DRS and UZR - so take that for what it's worth.

 

Please don't take this as a slam on Davis or a justification for trading him. He's a good player, even with the weak arm. He's an okay runner, and he takes good routes on the ball - meaning he's a not a total waste as an OF. Still, he is destined for DH sooner than later.

 

I just thought it was interesting.

 

Here's the top 10 worst arms for 2017 (player, innings, outfield value):

 

Khris Davis: 635.2 / -8.5

Ben Revere: 414.0 / -4.6

Christian Yelich: 812.2 / -3.7

Matt Joyce: 660.1 / -3.5

Adam Jones: 794.2 / -3.3

Charlie Blackmon: 850.1 / -3.3

J.D. Martinez: 441.0 / -3.2

Aaron Altherr: 598.1 / -3.0

Chris Young: 274.0 / -2.8

A.J. Pollock: 392.2 / -2.7

[pacopete4]

Paging Briggs... paging John Briggs.

 

 

 

I kid, I kid...

[OnaBadger58]

I knew he had a noodle for an arm, but wow is that bad. I would have figured Johnny Damon would've had the worst arm. I will never forget Manny cutting his throw off from 10 feet away

[KeithStone53151]

It's really more of a shame than anything. That historically awful arm is keeping him from being a very solid 1st division regular.

[Boomer5]

862 OPS. Yeah he totally sucks. /sarcasm

[JohnBriggs12]

The value of a good arm in LF is minimal and the downside of a bad arm is minimal too. Davis has hit 90 HR since August 1, 2015. All I ever said is the Brewers traded away one of the premier sluggers in the game (which he is) who was under control and didn't get enough in return. I stand by that, though Derby has certainly taken a huge step forward this year.

[Ennder]

This is o surprise. It is why it didn't bother me too much that they traded him. The problem is they traded him one year too early. The power is legit and he is bad at everything else.

[pacopete4]

The value of a good arm in LF is minimal and the downside of a bad arm is minimal too. Davis has hit 90 HR since August 1, 2015. All I ever said is the Brewers traded away one of the premier sluggers in the game (which he is) who was under control and didn't get enough in return. I stand by that, though Derby has certainly taken a huge step forward this year.

 

As has Jacob Nottingham defensively from what has been said. If they find a pitcher in Derby and possible a catcher down the road from Khris Davis, that's a fine trade. If neither pan out, than yeah it was lousy. But still way too early to make judgement on the return.

[reillymcshane]

As I said in the original post, this isn't about Davis' bat or the love that some people on this board have for him. I was reluctant to post this simply because I was afraid that's what it would turn into. I purposely avoided putting 'Khris Davis has the worst arm in baseball history' in the title for that reason.

 

What I think is cool is our ability to quantify these kinds of things. Understanding all the new data that is coming out of baseball can be difficult - but I find it pretty interesting.

[FVBrewerFan]

Semi-annual reminder that a big reason for trading him was to clear room for Santana, who is younger and out-performing Davis. Would have been great to wait a year, but they didn't have that luxury.

[reillymcshane]

The value of a good arm in LF is minimal and the downside of a bad arm is minimal too. Davis has hit 90 HR since August 1, 2015. All I ever said is the Brewers traded away one of the premier sluggers in the game (which he is) who was under control and didn't get enough in return. I stand by that, though Derby has certainly taken a huge step forward this year.

 

As has Jacob Nottingham defensively from what has been said. If they find a pitcher in Derby and possible a catcher down the road from Khris Davis, that's a fine trade. If neither pan out, than yeah it was lousy. But still way too early to make judgement on the return.

You are correct. Trades take time to evaluate.

 

Also, there's the simple fact that if the trade ends up poorly for Milwaukee, we can't freak out about it. The world doesn't end. We made a mistake, learn from it, move on.

 

Obsessing about roster moves years after the fact does little good. As I've said, sure you have to keep a tally of all the roster moves a GM makes. He's ultimately got to be held accountable for these things in the end.

 

But deals are made for a reason. Some will turn out good, others will bomb. So be it. That's life.

[OnaBadger58]

Suprised Blazek or Big Wily aren't on this list

[DuWayne Steurer]

Semi-annual reminder that a big reason for trading him was to clear room for Santana, who is younger and out-performing Davis. Would have been great to wait a year, but they didn't have that luxury.

 

 

Good point that is often forgotten.

 

Trades are (almost never) "X for Y". Santana was going to play, no matter what. He's going to be a 3 to 4 WAR player, this year. Davis is probably a 2 WAR guy, or thereabouts, even with his power. He's dreadful defensively, and will always carry a low OBP. He's hit .244, .247, .247, and .245 the last 4 years, and doesn't walk a lot. We needed to make room for Domingo and logistically, moving Davis made the absolute most sense.

[sveumrules]

The value of a good arm in LF is minimal and the downside of a bad arm is minimal too.

 

I guess it depends on what your definition of minimal is but Khris has registered 3748 innings in LF so far with a -22 Arm per DRS & a -21 Arm per UZR.

 

Yoenis Cespedes has registered 3888 innings in LF over that same time frame with a +27 Arm per DRS & a +22 Arm per UZR.

 

That is about a 5 win swing or about a win per season that can be gained or lost by a LFers arm.

[DuWayne Steurer]

The value of a good arm in LF is minimal and the downside of a bad arm is minimal too.

 

I guess it depends on what your definition of minimal is but Khris has registered 3748 innings in LF so far with a -22 Arm per DRS & a -21 Arm per UZR.

 

Yoenis Cespedes has registered 3888 innings in LF over that same time frame with a +27 Arm per DRS & a +22 Arm per UZR.

 

That is about a 5 win swing or about a win per season that can be gained or lost by a LFers arm.

 

To be fair, yoou're talking about one win per season between probably the absolute best arm in baseball in LF vs. the absolute worst arm. Most guys are going to fall somewhere in the middle, and the difference between probably 80% of the guys in MLB is going to be somewhat negligible I'd say.

[jerichoholicninja]

When we start attaching "wins" to OF arms, you lose me. It's such a situational thing. To try and put a value on it is almost silly. And to use things like preventing runners from advancing bases even more so because there are so many more variables involved.

 

I'd rather look at things that are easily measurable like velocity and release time.

[KeithStone53151]

When we start attaching "wins" to OF arms, you lose me. It's such a situational thing. To try and put a value on it is almost silly. And to use things like preventing runners from advancing bases even more so because there are so many more variables involved.

 

I'd rather look at things that are easily measurable like velocity and release time.

 

Um, what? You seriously think putting a value on an OF arm is silly? There's a ton of value in not letting every single base runner go 1st to 3rd on every single to left, and not letting every single base runner score from 2nd on a single to left. With Davis there are no variables, every single guy just goes. It without question should be factored into WAR as that significantly affects games.

[jerichoholicninja]

When we start attaching "wins" to OF arms, you lose me. It's such a situational thing. To try and put a value on it is almost silly. And to use things like preventing runners from advancing bases even more so because there are so many more variables involved.

 

I'd rather look at things that are easily measurable like velocity and release time.

 

Um, what? You seriously think putting a value on an OF arm is silly? There's a ton of value in not letting every single base runner go 1st to 3rd on every single to left, and not letting every single base runner score from 2nd on a single to left. With Davis there are no variables, every single guy just goes. It without question should be factored into WAR as that significantly affects games.

 

No, my problem is trying to equate it to wins.

[Austin Tatious]

I hope Keston Hiura is not on that list someday, or, ideally, the NL brings in the DH.

[sveumrules]

To be fair, yoou're talking about one win per season between probably the absolute best arm in baseball in LF vs. the absolute worst arm. Most guys are going to fall somewhere in the middle, and the difference between probably 80% of the guys in MLB is going to be somewhat negligible I'd say.

 

No doubt. Looking back at the last few individual seasons & the two different available arm rankings the difference from top to bottom is normally in the range of 11 to 19 runs per season for LF Arm. So from the best to the worst there is a significant difference.

 

Most players fall within a band of +/- 4 or 5 runs from even (& there's plenty of noise in the measurements to begin with) so for most players the difference is pretty minimal, but with an extreme outlier like Davis (or Cespedes on the other end) I think it has a real & noticeable effect without even looking at the numbers or trying to quantify it.

[Ennder]

The value of a good arm in LF is minimal and the downside of a bad arm is minimal too.

 

I guess it depends on what your definition of minimal is but Khris has registered 3748 innings in LF so far with a -22 Arm per DRS & a -21 Arm per UZR.

 

Yoenis Cespedes has registered 3888 innings in LF over that same time frame with a +27 Arm per DRS & a +22 Arm per UZR.

 

That is about a 5 win swing or about a win per season that can be gained or lost by a LFers arm.

 

To be fair, yoou're talking about one win per season between probably the absolute best arm in baseball in LF vs. the absolute worst arm. Most guys are going to fall somewhere in the middle, and the difference between probably 80% of the guys in MLB is going to be somewhat negligible I'd say.

 

To put 1 win into perspective it is the difference between a Domingo Santana and Orlando Arcia this year, it is pretty huge. It is the close to the difference between Aguilar and Villar. It is a very large difference.

[danzig6767]

 

Good point that is often forgotten.

 

Trades are (almost never) "X for Y". Santana was going to play, no matter what. He's going to be a 3 to 4 WAR player, this year. Davis is probably a 2 WAR guy, or thereabouts, even with his power. He's dreadful defensively, and will always carry a low OBP. He's hit .244, .247, .247, and .245 the last 4 years, and doesn't walk a lot.

I find his batting average numbers over the last four years to be kinda fascinating.

 

What are the odds of a player with regular at bats to carry a batting average that extremely close over four straight seasons? Hell, just random good or bad luck from year to year will often impact a batting average, besides the fact that players for whatever reason tend to be better or worse to varying degrees from year to year. There is at least a decent chance that come the end of the season, Davis will finish with the exact same batting average for three straight years. Has that happened before with an everyday player?

[MenchHead]

I always minimized a LF's arm until Davis couldn't even be accurate with it. It became embarrassing watching him throw. It was like watching little league-just sending kids when the worst arm had the ball. I know he had an injury and his arm was apparently never the same. But, it always amazed me a guy with his power and stocky frame suffered from a shotgun arm. Reminded me of Kyle Orton-couldn't get it downfield and really had no idea where it was going.

I always thought he got a decent jump and tracked the ball fairly well. Not a blazer by any means but he was adequate for his bat. I mean, if Lance Berkman can play right field...

[DuWayne Steurer]

 

To be fair, yoou're talking about one win per season between probably the absolute best arm in baseball in LF vs. the absolute worst arm. Most guys are going to fall somewhere in the middle, and the difference between probably 80% of the guys in MLB is going to be somewhat negligible I'd say.

 

To put 1 win into perspective it is the difference between a Domingo Santana and Orlando Arcia this year, it is pretty huge. It is the close to the difference between Aguilar and Villar. It is a very large difference.

 

 

I understand that, and I'm not downplaying 1 win, but my point was that there's one win difference between the absolute best arm and the absolute worst arm (according to the numbers). Briggs original comment was "The value of a good arm in LF is minimal and the downside of a bad arm is minimal too" which isn't too far off from the truth, unless you have to go to the extreme of comparing the worst guy in the league to the very best guy. Comparing Davis to an average left fielder is probably worth half a win per season, which isn't the end of the world if he's providing a good deal of offense.

 

If you compare the guy that's the very best at X and the very worst at X, you'll obviously, every time, get an extreme difference in the number that you're looking at, and nobody would ever say differently.