2017-07-22: Brewers (Suter) at Phillies (Hellickson) 6:05 PM CDT [Brewers win, 9-8]

[TJseven7]

You did no wrong... whatever you want to believe.

 

It is a fact that the numbers you thump as a bible do not in any way account for batters at the plate, on deck etc. (Ie your accomplished bunter or not, batter history with said pitcher, currently hot cold or high k rate batter/pitcher) Do not account for speed on the basepaths. Do they even account for inning and score?

 

Why do you think that is good enough to use as the end all be all?

 

At least I said bunt before it happened... you called it stupid after it failed.

 

I understand its niave to think any major league hitter should be able to lay down an acceptable bunt but the look of it says shaw with a guy on 3rd 1 out is a good bet. Santana with men at the corners 1 down is a good bet... especially in a tie game, in the top of 9... on the road, with an upper level closer.

[trwi7]

I don't see how Perez bunting Thames to 3rd is anything but stupid. Thames isn't fast, so even if he gets to 3rd, there's no guarantee he scores on any medium depth fly ball. Neris himself is a pretty good strikeout pitcher adding to the risk that no ball is even put in play with less than two outs and of course, you have to get a decent bunt on a decent pitch. The pitch that Perez bunted wasn't decent, it was a bad pitch that was extremely difficult to bunt so you have to have a hitter who's disciplined enough to wait for a good pitch to bunt. Perez is a lot of things but one of those things isn't disciplined enough to wait for a good pitch to bunt.

[TJseven7]

I get that about perez bunting but it goes both ways... I'm on the other side I'm happy to let my good strike out pitcher attack their weak link, cold, swinging at junk batter... so I can get that k or non advancing out... walk shaw and set up the gidp chance with a slow runner at 2nd who likely wont score on most singles.

 

I don't want the weak batter moving the runner... from how he's been lately... I'd think his best chance to do that was bunt.

 

I don't doubt blind stats say thats wrong. It absolutely worked horrifically. But there have been a number of decisions made sunday on that I've been disgusted with. This choice makes sense in this situation.

 

I can't see any logic in having perez hit. We had no baserunning sub unless we subbed in a pitcher. The other choice was lift him for aguilar and move thanes to left for the 9th... which is defensive backwards.

[adambr2]

I get that about perez bunting but it goes both ways... I'm on the other side I'm happy to let my good strike out pitcher attack their weak link, cold, swinging at junk batter... so I can get that k or non advancing out... walk shaw and set up the gidp chance with a slow runner at 2nd who likely wont score on most singles.

 

I don't want the weak batter moving the runner... from how he's been lately... I'd think his best chance to do that was bunt.

 

I don't doubt blind stats say thats wrong. It absolutely worked horrifically. But there have been a number of decisions made sunday on that I've been disgusted with. This choice makes sense in this situation.

 

I can't see any logic in having perez hit. We had no baserunning sub unless we subbed in a pitcher. The other choice was lift him for aquilar and move thanes to left for the 9th... which is defensive backwards.

 

I don't know why you keep talking about Perez like he's such a threat to strikeout if you have him hit away. Perez has terrible plate discipline but he's good at putting the ball in play. He strikes out at a much lower rate than both Shaw and Santana. He hasn't been hot but he hasn't been striking out much, either.

 

Could he strike out? Sure. But Shaw is even more likely to K with Thames standing on 3rd with 1 out. Then the sac bunt is wasted, you're up to 2 out and you still need a hit anyway.

[adambr2]

I don't see how Perez bunting Thames to 3rd is anything but stupid. Thames isn't fast, so even if he gets to 3rd, there's no guarantee he scores on any medium depth fly ball. Neris himself is a pretty good strikeout pitcher adding to the risk that no ball is even put in play with less than two outs and of course, you have to get a decent bunt on a decent pitch. The pitch that Perez bunted wasn't decent, it was a bad pitch that was extremely difficult to bunt so you have to have a hitter who's disciplined enough to wait for a good pitch to bunt. Perez is a lot of things but one of those things isn't disciplined enough to wait for a good pitch to bunt.

 

I'd at least understand a little better if you've got the bottom of the order coming up. Still would disagree, but it would make a little more sense to me. To me with the heart of your order coming up, great hitters but strikeout threats, yeah. I agree it wasn't the right strategy.

[adambr2]

I've actually got more confidence in Hughes than Barnes at this point in time.

 

Don't get me wrong, Barnes is good -- most of the time. But when he's bad, he seems to be really bad.

[TJseven7]

So you ignore the short term where Perez is struggling in his last 8 games ...5 of last 24 8k 33% k rate which has been equal to shaw's july and 5% worse than santana's july? Equal to santanas season and 8% higher than shaws season.

 

Coming in his 1st ab with 2 others on ab 5... 2 of 3 and a bb 1 of 3 and a bb respectively. 1k for shaw none for santana. Those factors mean zilch?

 

This is my issue with the situation devoid numbers... perez has been bad lately. His Ks have been up lately. What numbers do you choose... career season month recent? You can't just look at his career and go... he doesnt strike out as much... cuz then you ignore whats happening now. Shaws been on today santana too how much stock do you put in that?

 

To me its like seeing broxton clunking away and going yeah but his season = x so ignore what you see cuz its just a sample size thing. Villar and broxton have looked completely broken at times. Perez looks off lately. Santana has been taking his game up another level each passing month this year... ignore?

 

This blind numbers stuff just baffles me... its not like tgat in any other sport... i mean your 40% 3 point shooter is clanking 3s an is 1 for 8, hes off... and your 33% 3 point shooter is watching everything fall at 5 for 5... you can see it... its not the statistical norm... but who do you draw the play for? Baseball analytics... feeling it? Hot? On? IGNORE 40% shooter ftw.

[A Swing and A Drive]

Absolutely 100% the right call to bunt the runner to third in that situation.

 

After the bullpen fiasco, the Brewers desperately needed to regain the lead.

 

Getting a runner to 3rd wth less than 2 outs late in a tie game is HUGE! There is a multitude of ways a runner can score from third in that situation (sac fly, infield out up the middle, sac fly, Wild pitch, passed ball, error, ANY hit, etc)

[Pugger]

Interesting broadcasting group tonight.

 

I wonder where BA and Rock are...

[Pugger]

Most runs in a game since the first game back from the break.

 

Now just lock Torres and Scahill in a broom closet to remove temptation.

 

Should I or should I cry...?

[Pugger]

Take Braun out and bubble wrap him until tomorrow!

 

We did and it almost came back to bite us.

[Pugger]

Hey CC time to go to the guy you should have put in after drake walked rupp. Blazek is available.

 

Why does CC keep guys in even tho everyone and their uncle knows he just doesn't have it that day?

[Pugger]

LOL...great move Craig. Idiotic.

 

Actually it was a great idea. Terrible execution.

 

It might be a great idea if you have guys who can actually bunt...

[Pugger]

I've had it with these phillies fans in the front row staring at their phones all game.

 

You see this at a lot of games. It is rather sad so many people are addicted to those little machines.

[Pugger]

Honest question. What does Auggie think a breckabawl is? Seems literally any pitch other than a 4 seam FB? Change, slider, curve, vutter...Ive heard him call of them breckabawl.

 

Give him some slack. He's from Kewaunee.

[Pugger]

Suter deserved to PITCH the 7th inning if not more! That Bullpen sucks and it was the main culprit for the losing streak.

 

I should be happy they won but I am not. I am totally ticked off. Why was the pitching coach not out there with Barnes in the 8th inning when the 2nd man reached? Good grief.

 

5 1/2 game lead gone in one week. And now the Brewers have 3 teams breathing down their necks. Unreal.

 

Our bullpen has its issues but we couldn't score to save our lives during that losing streak.

 

It was great to see Corey sharp too. Let's hope he is back to his old self for a while now.

[adambr2]

So you ignore the short term where Perez is struggling in his last 8 games ...5 of last 24 8k 33% k rate which has been equal to shaw's july and 5% worse than santana's july? Equal to santanas season and 8% higher than shaws season.

 

Coming in his 1st ab with 2 others on ab 5... 2 of 3 and a bb 1 of 3 and a bb respectively. 1k for shaw none for santana. Those factors mean zilch?

 

My goodness, talk about cherry picking numbers with Perez. He also had 3 K's in his last 18 AB's which is a 16% K rate. Or 9 in 47 June AB's, which is 19%.

 

So which are the numbers that matter to you? Just the ones that support your argument?

[adambr2]

Absolutely 100% the right call to bunt the runner to third in that situation.

 

After the bullpen fiasco, the Brewers desperately needed to regain the lead.

 

Getting a runner to 3rd wth less than 2 outs late in a tie game is HUGE! There is a multitude of ways a runner can score from third in that situation (sac fly, infield out up the middle, sac fly, Wild pitch, passed ball, error, ANY hit, etc)

 

Overall over time, teams have a 66% chance of scoring more than 0 runs with a runner on 3rd and 1 out, and a 63% chance with a runner on 2nd and one out. I would not classify 3% as huge, nor overriding of the risk of a failed sac. IMO

 

I would guess that the 66% would be further reduced in this situation by a high strikeout pitcher.

[Devinep]

Can anyone explain why Villar pinch hit instead of Aguilar? Villar doesn't hit lefties (or baseballs) well and Aguilar does so it makes even less sense to me. It's been a couple times now

[lcbj68c]

Hey CC time to go to the guy you should have put in after drake walked rupp. Blazek is available.

 

Why does CC keep guys in even tho everyone and their uncle knows he just doesn't have it that day?

 

Because CC doesn't make decisions based upon situations (the environment) or what he sees with his eyes. Instead, he plays roles with his pitchers. About the longest managerial "tradition" in the game that drives me absolutely crazy.