Justin Wilson

[NievesNoNO]

I feel the same way about Wilson as Sonny Gray. On their own, I don't think they make enough of a difference. I think they ultimately need a couple of buys if they are serious about really taking a shot at holding the division. I like Wilson. He's quite good and controlled for another year. As others have noted, the cost will likely be significant. Now, if somehow you can add Verlander to the deal, then I think things change a bit.

 

If you can build something around Phillips, Diaz, Broxton then you might have a match.

[Warning Track Power]

Justin Wilson and Justin Verlander for Ray, Dubon, Cordell, Broxton and the Brewers take on all of Verlander's salary. Tigers get our #8, #9 prospects from Baseball America and they get 2 OFs that play in MLB immediately and the salary relief. Phillips and Brinson platoon in CF for the rest of the season in Milwaukee.

 

Is this realistic?

[bill hAll Star]

I've said it on other threads but a lot of the Verlander stuff depends on the new ownership.

 

I think they realize that they're on a 3-year rebuild. IF ownership is willing to have a $150 payroll next year and $120 the year after as they rebuild, I don't see the point of just giving away Verlander for nothing but salary relief. They can hold out for prospects.

[Boomer5]

I'd love to add Verlander to the deal to not give up many prospects but that feels too good to be true to me.

 

He is owed $56M plus a possible $22M vesting option plus the remainder of 2017. To the Dodgers that is chump change but the Brewers have never taken on anything like that by many orders of magnitude.

 

With the Brewers payroll being so low this is intriguing but does this hamper future moves? Right now the only guys we have under contract for next year are Braun and Thames so our payroll is gong to go way up whether we are winning or not.

 

Yeah, the Brewers with Verlander, Braun, Thames, and the 15 other guys on the 25 that we're fairly certain about would add up to about $70 million for 2018 and 2019. I'd bet that Mark could spend up to $120 nowadays if he wanted to so there would be room for filling out the last 5 or so slots. The thing with the roster is that we don't have many spots where we'd be dropping a ton of money to upgrade.

 

If the $22 million option vests - I'd call it a victory. That means he'd be a top 5 Cy Young candidate in 2019.

 

This is like the Eric Gagne contract in my opinion. 80% of fans will be losing their mind when he has a 4.50 ERA next year because he's getting paid $28 million. However, it's not a "huge undertaking" because it's not like it's a 7-year deal. It's only a 2-year commitment unless he's really good, which then I'm fine taking the 3rd year. Same with Gagne. It was an "overpay" of $10 million but who cares? It was mostly a strikeout of a contract but it was off the books the following year.

 

It won't set the Brewers back a ton unless they miss out on some big ticket trade or signing for 2019 that also has a massive contract.

 

With the way he's pitching I'm not sure I really want him in the first place - but if Mark insists on spending $ at the major league level, this still won't really affect our ability to buy players or keep our own going forward so go ahead if he wishes.

 

The vested option would likely move to a player option to waive his no trade.

[Brewcrewin07]

Crew not in on Verlander...

 

[Boomer5]

Crew not in on Verlander...

 

 

That makes sense. Verlander isn't a Brewer kind of pick up. If the analytics are correct, the Brewers aren't close to being a playoff ready team so picking up a contract that big at his age doesn't make a lot of sense.

 

However, that would mean the package for Wilson would be through the roof since there isn't a bad contract offset.

[And That]

For another bad Tigers contract, look down the roster a little and there's Jordan Zimmerman.

[billymac]

For another bad Tigers contract, look down the roster a little and there's Jordan Zimmerman.

 

He was very good in Washington but hasn't been good the last 2 years in Detroit. Perhaps a change of scenery?

 

He has a full no trade from 2016-2018, but he's from Wisconsin.

 

He's owed $74 for 2018-2020 and about $9 more this year.

[Outlander]

Doesn't the Madson/Doolittle trade kind of dampen the relief market? Those are two high quality RP and they didn't exactly bring back the Brett Phillips and Lewis Brinsons of the world.

I don't know, that one still makes me scratch my head since neither Madson/Doolittle are rentals. That would be great if the market for relievers isn't as high this year but maybe the Madson/Doolitle trade was the exception to the rule.

[statAddict]

Zimmermann seems like a nice buy low opportunity... could really benefit from moving back to the NL. Since the beginning of June, he hasn't been too bad (7.8 K/9, 4.07 FIP). He was very sharp in his most recent outing against the Royals. Perhaps he's just rounding back into form after an injury plagued campaign last year. Only 31 years old, so not to the point where you'd expect a dramatic decline in performance and his injury was to his neck not his arm.

[Boomer5]

For another bad Tigers contract, look down the roster a little and there's Jordan Zimmerman.

 

Not a bad idea, but still a lot of money for a Brewer team that hasnt shown this kind of spending before except for Brauns deal.

[reillymcshane]

If you package Zimmerman with Wilson, I'm guessing the Tigers would still have to pay at least 1/2 (if not more) of Zimmerman's salary (he is owed $83M through 2020). And we'd essentially give up a non-prospect in return.

 

That would mean Zimmerman would be getting paid around $12M a year by the Crew for 3+ years of work. Not an insignificant risk. Of course, the Crew would be essentially buying Wilson for the rest of this year and next.

 

The most important thing is that the Brewers would have to believe Zimmerman would rebound to some degree. No point in taking him on if you believe he is going to stink.

 

Personally, I'm not a fan of this kind of thing, as the odds of Zimmerman suddenly rebounding and becoming a 3.0+ WAR pitcher again is probably pretty small. In reality, he's probably lucky to be a back of the rotation guy - something we don't really need. We need someone who is more a middle of the rotation pitcher (or better). A back of the rotation guy just doesn't push the needle much in our favor - especially at the price he would cost.

[Boomer5]

If you package Zimmerman with Wilson, I'm guessing the Tigers would still have to pay at least 1/2 (if not more) of Zimmerman's salary (he is owed $83M through 2020). And we'd essentially give up a non-prospect in return.

 

That would mean Zimmerman would be getting paid around $12M a year by the Crew for 3+ years of work. Not an insignificant risk. Of course, the Crew would be essentially buying Wilson for the rest of this year and next.

 

The most important thing is that the Brewers would have to believe Zimmerman would rebound to some degree. No point in taking him on if you believe he is going to stink.

 

Personally, I'm not a fan of this kind of thing, as the odds of Zimmerman suddenly rebounding and becoming a 3.0+ WAR pitcher again is probably pretty small. In reality, he's probably lucky to be a back of the rotation guy - something we don't really need. We need someone who is more a middle of the rotation pitcher (or better). A back of the rotation guy just doesn't push the needle much in our favor - especially at the price he would cost.

 

Wilson is one of the biggest trade chips at the deadline. The reports I have seen suggest 10 teams are talking to the Tigers about him. I am guessing they wont be throwing in much if anything on the bad contract assuming we would be giving up a guy like Nottingham as our headliner. If we upgrade to a top 10 prospect then they'd probably put in some money.

[bill hAll Star]

The reason why the Zimmermann/Verlander-type salary dumps interest me is the contract length and Brewers positioning.

 

Right now, for the next 2 seasons, the Brewers probably will have about 20 of the 25 guys on their roster set next year and that collection of players is due a combined total of probably $40-$50 million.

 

Assuming Mark is willing to pay $110+ million when the team is competing, and I think he's fired the starting gun on that, I'm not sure the Brewers will be able to fill that payroll even if they try. Of course they aren't required to, but if Mark is saying, "use this money now or lose it," then shorter deals are much more desirable. They may only have 5 or 6 acquisition spots to fill and those players would have to average $10 million/year at least.

 

Given players that make that much money typically will require a 4-8 year contract and probably come with the same risk as a Verlander or Zimmermann, that is the one reason that I take a look at those deals assuming it is essentially a salary dump.

 

If Mark has earmarked that money already, these are ways to bring in a decent player on a short-term deal.

 

Again, those specific players may not be worth it even given the constraints, but that is why I will listen to these overpaid players that have 1-3 years remaining on their deals that are being offered in salary dumps.

[MrTPlush]

I am man missing the excitement on Wilson. I really don't see how his value is near Will Smith value. Will Smith had way more control at the point of trade. I am sure the injury earlier last season didn't help matters, but I would much prefer Will Smith(healthy obviously) over Justin Wilson.

 

Also I am not sure what Phil Bickford being their top prospect has to do with anything. Not our fault their entire farm system was poop on a stick last July.

[reillymcshane]

I am man missing the excitement on Wilson. I really don't see how his value is near Will Smith value. Will Smith had way more control at the point of trade. I am sure the injury earlier last season didn't help matters, but I would much prefer Will Smith(healthy obviously) over Justin Wilson.

 

Also I am not sure what Phil Bickford being their top prospect has to do with anything. Not our fault their entire farm system was poop on a stick last July.

Agree. Wilson is a solid reliever - but not that exciting. He would be a great addition and a good player - but it's not like he's elite.

[patrickgpe]

Crew not in on Verlander...

 

that link doesn't mean the brewers are not in on Verlander, its just why he doesn't make sense. it would be a way to get a good starter without giving up prospects. i don't rule out the brewers getting him.

[pacopete4]

Getting Verlander with Wilson would be a heck of a trading season. It'd be a dynamic that would be hard to even know how much it would help. Verlander hasn't exactly been himself really.

[brewcrewdue80]

Verlanders expense is too much to take on. With Brauns fragility, youre looking at 47mil for potentially negative War...though I think Braun isnt a negative War type. Sure the two could produce, but then its to what they are being paid. Throw in Justin Wilson I dont know, its like trying to make it reasonable to part with any top prospects. If we're willing to pay that kind of money, then why not do so in FA after the season? Detroit would need to pick up half the salary before Id part with a top ten Brewers prospect. Why would Detroit do that?

[JosephC]

I think Wilson is a better pitcher than Will Smith, but when the Smith trade was made the Giants were getting 3.5 years of control where Wilson is only controlled for 1.5 more years. So I don't think Wilson should bring the return that Smith brought. Awhile back I speculated on a Wilson for Ryan Cordell, Taylor Williams and Tyler Cravy package which seems ridiculous now. But right after I made the post Wilson went on a 13 appearance run where he posted a 1.46 ERA and 0.89 WHIP, Cordell's value took a nose-dive as every team in MLB saw the Brewers promote Brinson and Phillips (twice) instead of Cordell despite Cordell being older, and Taylor Williams went from being a pretty attractive lottery ticket (1.16 ERA, 1.20 WHIP before suggested trade) to falling off a cliff (7.43 ERA, 2.10 WHIP after suggested trade). Now I think an expected package for Wilson would be something like Lucas Erceg, Cody Ponce and either Cravy or someone like Jorge Lopez.

[JosephC]

Doesn't the Madson/Doolittle trade kind of dampen the relief market? Those are two high quality RP and they didn't exactly bring back the Brett Phillips and Lewis Brinsons of the world.

 

Too early to tell on the reliever market. Madson is old and Doolittle has major durability issues. I think that trade favored the Nationals (buyer) but it wasn't lop-sided. I thought the Phelps trade favored the Marlins (sellers) but that's only because one or two extra fringe prospects were included...some people would probably place a zero value on those guy. Again, not a lop-sided trade IMO. I think the Yankees/White Sox swap favored the White Sox (seller) but opinions on that are all over the board depending on how Rutherford is valued and how much Robertson's contract is weighed in the total equation. From what I've seen so far I don't think there is a real good indication of what guys like Justin Wilson, Brad Hand and Pat Neshek will go for. It wouldn't surprise me if those players fetched a back-half of the top 100 prospect plus another pretty decent prospect. But on the flip side it wouldn't surprise me if the headliner in the return ended up being a couple decent prospects plus a couple more fringy guys to give a more "quantity" over "quality" return.

[A Swing and A Drive]

How about Verlander with no money included for Clint Coulter, Victor Roache and Kyle Heckathorn?

 

I'm not sure if I'd want to part with so many high draft pick prospects for a washed up starter though.

[Brewcrewin07]

Looks like the Cubs are likely to land Justin Wilson...Lovely.

 

 

[adambr2]

Looks like the Cubs are likely to land Justin Wilson...Lovely.

 

 

 

I hope they do. They're in a bidding war with the Dodgers and I hope they win it. They can exhaust the last few remaining useful assets in their farm system for a good not great reliever with only 1+ remaining year of control. That's a great big picture scenario for us, actually.

[paul253]

That's a great big picture scenario for us, actually.

 

It would be great in the big picture if it were a team like us doing it. Chicago can make up for their lack of prospects by signing free agents, overspending on the draft and overspending on international free agents. Chicago doesn't need to rely on their farm system as much as we do so I don't think them trading away their top prospects is as big a deal as some make it out to be. The guys they traded to get Quintana are 3-4 years away from the majors, if they even make it. A lot can happen in 3-4 years. Meanwhile the Cubs are improving their major league team for the next few years, which is ultimately the goal.