Baseball America Midseason Top 10

[82brewcrew82]

He may "throw" more than two pitchers, but quality matters and I do believe you need a third pitch to be an effective starter. It's not just that though, that walk rate dances around a bit. Not sure if he found something at AA but it has been better there. I'm not saying he won't be a starter (and he should absolutely be given very chance to do that) but he does seem to trend reliever.

[homer]

I'm a pretty big glass is half full guy but I can't help but be disappointed by some of the numbers the top ten guys are putting up this year. Ray, Erceg, Diaz, Dubon are not doing much of anything.

[Jenkins5]

FB/Slider is plenty if FB can be located and slider is nasty enough. Agreed it's tough, and not ideal, but plenty of quality SP use that combo. In my perfect world, every pitcher would have an effective change or curve to go along with the heat.

 

Yeah Ben Sheets made his whole career fastball/curveball.... he threw change usually around 10% of the time. He was never big on throwing it.

 

As a starter having a curve or change to go with fastball is pretty important to keep hitters off balanced. Slider is a higher velocity pitch still that doesn't keep hitter off balanced as well over 2-3 times through line up.

[OnaBadger58]

FB/Slider is plenty if FB can be located and slider is nasty enough. Agreed it's tough, and not ideal, but plenty of quality SP use that combo. In my perfect world, every pitcher would have an effective change or curve to go along with the heat.

 

Yeah Ben Sheets made his whole career fastball/curveball.... he threw change usually around 10% of the time. He was never big on throwing it.

 

As a starter having a curve or change to go with fastball is pretty important to keep hitters off balanced. Slider is a higher velocity pitch still that doesn't keep hitter off balanced as well over 2-3 times through line up.

My thoughts exactly. A high fastball and a curve are a great combo because the start out in the same position for the hitter. With the mph difference, it becomes a guessing game. Sliders are maybe 5-7 mph difference whereas Curveballs are closer to 15 mphs.

[reillymcshane]

A starter with two pitchers can survive - even be very good - if one (or both) of those pitches is exceptional. Sheets had a wicked curveball. That allowed him be successful as a primarily two pitch guy.

 

There will always be exceptions - but generally a starter is going to need to have three pitches that can play.

[And That]

For me with Peralta it's not the offspeed stuff that will make him a reliever long term, it's the wonky delivery and awkward landing. It doesn't look like a starter's delivery, so to speak. He has not insignificant control issues and without fixing the delivery, don't think those issues go away.

[brewcrewdue80]

I'm a pretty big glass is half full guy but I can't help but be disappointed by some of the numbers the top ten guys are putting up this year. Ray, Erceg, Diaz, Dubon are not doing much of anything.

 

Diaz is doing fine, still collecting XBH. Hes a 2nd base bat still very young. As is Erceg in pro ball. Hes essentially finished his 1st year total. Probably too high on the bar set for him due to last year&spring.

Ray is most upsetting and We're awaiting his stats to approach what a college 5th pick should be producing....since lately these type of picks have been either promoted or knocking at the door for ML time. He's not even close.

Dubon like I said, is the shine his defense? With offense being adequate for it? Because his power lacking doesnt bring a lot of confidence to be a difference maker anytime soon in the Majors. Luis Sardinas #2?

Im thrilled honestly with the minors production. The pitching has shined in multiple arms, the bats have had shine to them as well. It wasnt so much like this last year.

[Eye Black]

Lets look at the AA Ortiz argument as well with our Top 5 pitchers

 

Name......Age..K/9 ...K% .BB% .BAA . xFIP

Woodruff. 23., 9.82, 27%, 6.5%,.208, 2.79

Hader...... 22 11.53, 33%, 8.5%,.189, 2.67

Burns...... 22., 9.13, 27%.., 3%, .178, 2.30

Peralta.... 21, 14.05, 37%.., 9%, .191, 2.28

Ortiz....... 21.., 7.85, 21%, 11%, .221, 4.19

 

Peralta & Hader (only 2016 AA stats) are pretty similar

Burns & Woody are pretty similar

 

 

Talent is there with Ortiz & he has stuff but so do those are guys. Age is only an excuse for so long. Peralta is same age even younger. Moreover, the other 4 aren't concerns with conditioning or at least yet. Ortiz since high school has battled with his weight jumping way up.

 

In my books he is #5 with Diplan, Bickford, Ponce, Mederois, Lopez behind. Yamamoto making case to join that tier while Lopez & Mederois are battling to drop out of it. (Mederois is electric when he pitches 2nd however.... just awful starting games)

Always enjoy your posts. My first reaction is that group of five arms is arguably as exciting of a collection of pitching prospects as the Brewers have had in the system at one time that were at AA or higher. In regards to Ortiz, I do agree that the conditioning remains a slight concern, but I still think Ortiz has the second best chance to develop into a major league starting pitcher behind only Woodruff. Regarding the AA stats according to Fangraphs Ortiz's BAA this year is now .209 following his last start. I do wish the K% and BB% were a little better, but they aren't to the point where I am overly concerned yet since as you mentioned he is in his age 21 season. It wouldn't be the worst AA season for Brewers pitcher that developed into a solid starter. Jimmy Nelson made his AA debut at age 23 and had a K% of 20.1% and a BB% of 17.7%. Ortiz is working with a good fastball and an above average slider. I know one of the primary focuses going into this season was for him to continue to work on developing a change-up, so I am hopeful that is a pitch he is continuing to perfect. We will see where his development goes from here, but based on the attributes he already possesses and the likelihood that he continues to improve, I still believe in Ortiz.