Current expectations for 2018

[Brewers4Ever]

TBH, I just don't see how we beat the Cubs anytime soon. A lot of money comes off their book at season's end and they're going to have the financial flexibility to go out and make a couple big signings to fill holes (probably another starter, maybe Yu Darvish). I look at the age of their players who are controlled through 2020, 2021. Then you look at the rumors of them launching their own TV network in 2020 which will generate bags of cash.

 

I just don't know guys.

 

I certainly haven't been the most optimistic one lately, but pretty much all of your 29 posts are in some way related to how much we suck or how much better the Cubs are than us. We get it.

 

Why not try addressing a few of my points rather than an ad hominem attack?

[adambr2]

TBH, I just don't see how we beat the Cubs anytime soon. A lot of money comes off their book at season's end and they're going to have the financial flexibility to go out and make a couple big signings to fill holes (probably another starter, maybe Yu Darvish). I look at the age of their players who are controlled through 2020, 2021. Then you look at the rumors of them launching their own TV network in 2020 which will generate bags of cash.

 

I just don't know guys.

 

I certainly haven't been the most optimistic one lately, but pretty much all of your 29 posts are in some way related to how much we suck or how much better the Cubs are than us. We get it.

 

Why not try addressing a few of my points rather than an ad hominem attack?

 

Its not an attack, it's true . I don't totally disagree with all of your points but when you constantly proclaim the worst it gets a bit tough to take seriously.

 

To address them, first off, we don't have to beat the Cubs . We just need to be one of the 5 best teams in the NL, then it's a new season, true of any season.

 

Yes, the Cubs have a lot of money coming off the payroll after this year, but as the Giants, Tigers and others will tell you, this doesn't guarantee success, nor is free agency any guarantee, especially down the road . They've already made a pretty bad investment with Heyward.

 

Their system is pretty void of any talent, so they'll need to plug holes with free agency going forward, and 20M these days basically buys you a decent player. They should be fine for a couple years, but down the road their lack of farm talent will hurt.

 

They are in a pretty good situation of control with Rizzo and Bryant through 2021 but they'll need to budget wisely even with their payroll because it'll take a huge investment to keep both.

 

Darvish will be 32 next year, if they want to go all in for 30M plus and 6 years, I think that would be fantastic.

 

Bottom line, I do think the Cubs are in a pretty good situation through 2021, but that doesn't guarantee they win the division every year, and while I think they're still really good they have showed some signs this year of perhaps being vulnerable sooner than expected .

 

The more they choose to sacrifice for the next 2-3 years, the better it is for us in the long run, not worse .

[brewmann04]

The brewers just need to be hopefully in contention for a wild card. I agree let's see what Phillips can do and get Woodruff in the rotation. Sit Villar on the bench l.

[Ennder]

TBH, I just don't see how we beat the Cubs anytime soon. A lot of money comes off their book at season's end and they're going to have the financial flexibility to go out and make a couple big signings to fill holes (probably another starter, maybe Yu Darvish). I look at the age of their players who are controlled through 2020, 2021. Then you look at the rumors of them launching their own TV network in 2020 which will generate bags of cash.

 

I just don't know guys.

 

I certainly haven't been the most optimistic one lately, but pretty much all of your 29 posts are in some way related to how much we suck or how much better the Cubs are than us. We get it.

 

Why not try addressing a few of my points rather than an ad hominem attack?

 

He has a point, you seem to be a Cubs fan just trolling in the forums. You have posted nothing but I told you so the Cubs passed us type posts for your entire history on the forums.

 

I don't think this Brewers team is competing in the next 2 years most likely because so much of the prospect talent is in A ball. The focus of this season should be looking at 2020 and not 2017.

[adambr2]

He has a point, you seem to be a Cubs fan just trolling in the forums. You have posted nothing but I told you so the Cubs passed us type posts for your entire history on the forums.

 

Absolutely he is.

 

Cubs have now win 6 straight and have home games coming up. They now have Q. And will be getting Hendricks back soon. It's a completely different team.

 

Very aware of the Cubs' upcoming schedule and injury returns. Refers to Quintana as "Q".

 

Wouldn't be surprised to still the Cubs make a move for him in the offseason once Jake Arrieta walks.

 

This was in the Michael Fulmer thread, more specific opinions on the Cubs, no one was even talking about the Cubs.

 

Yup 2.5. And one other thing to keep in mind is that the Cubs have a more favorable schedule than we do going down the stretch. They've played more games on the road than we have. So honestly, as things look now, I think we can all pretty much acknowledge this isn't looking very good.

 

Cubs could use a setup man for Davis. Create a lethal 8th/9th situation to go along with their top 4 of Q, Lester, Arrieta, Hendricks. They might just be in a position to repeat.

 

More very specific references to the Cubs' schedule and pitching staff.

 

How about red? I guess I'm more confused by the management's lack of moves. I mean I get not wanting to give away the farm but we could make a run here.

 

Refers to Cubs players by name on numerous occasions yet refers to our GM as "the management?" Yeah, okay.

 

Things that do not appear once in his posts:

1) A name of an actual Brewer player, coach, manager, or front office member. Not. Once.

 

So yeah, he's absolutely a Cubs' troll. The generic "Brewers4Ever" username was a cute touch, though.

[Brewers4Ever]

He has a point, you seem to be a Cubs fan just trolling in the forums. You have posted nothing but I told you so the Cubs passed us type posts for your entire history on the forums.

 

I don't think this Brewers team is competing in the next 2 years most likely because so much of the prospect talent is in A ball. The focus of this season should be looking at 2020 and not 2017.

 

I'm being realistic. I'm not one of those fans who just does a "rah rah rah" and ignores reality. It's fine for all of us to be optimistic about the future of our beloved Brewers while simultaneously acknowledging that some real problems exist.

[OnaBadger58]

He has a point, you seem to be a Cubs fan just trolling in the forums. You have posted nothing but I told you so the Cubs passed us type posts for your entire history on the forums.

 

I don't think this Brewers team is competing in the next 2 years most likely because so much of the prospect talent is in A ball. The focus of this season should be looking at 2020 and not 2017.

 

I'm being realistic. I'm not one of those fans who just does a "rah rah rah" and ignores reality. It's fine for all of us to be optimistic about the future of our beloved Brewers while simultaneously acknowledging that some real problems exist.

We're in year two of a five year rebuild. We're in first place in the division currently. We are at least one year ahead of schedule. Our farm system has been flipped from bottom five to top five in two years. Stearns has fleeced teams with trades, and has yet to deviate from his plan. Now if you're talking problems on the current team, yes there is, but what we're your expectations?

[Brewers4Ever]

He has a point, you seem to be a Cubs fan just trolling in the forums. You have posted nothing but I told you so the Cubs passed us type posts for your entire history on the forums.

 

I don't think this Brewers team is competing in the next 2 years most likely because so much of the prospect talent is in A ball. The focus of this season should be looking at 2020 and not 2017.

 

I'm being realistic. I'm not one of those fans who just does a "rah rah rah" and ignores reality. It's fine for all of us to be optimistic about the future of our beloved Brewers while simultaneously acknowledging that some real problems exist.

We're in year two of a five year rebuild. We're in first place in the division currently. We are at least one year ahead of schedule. Our farm system has been flipped from bottom five to top five in two years. Stearns has fleeced teams with trades, and has yet to deviate from his plan. Now if you're talking problems on the current team, yes there is, but what we're your expectations?

 

See my post above where I laid out how it's going to be difficult to compete against the Cubs for the next 4 or so years. That's the problem.

[FVBrewerFan]

I have a question. Will it be a challenge competing against the Cubs? Just not sure, since I haven't seen it discussed at all.

[owbc]

See my post above where I laid out how it's going to be difficult to compete against the Cubs for the next 4 or so years. That's the problem.

 

A Cubs team that just sent away a group of top prospects in response to the Brewers' success.

 

If the Brewers stick to their plan, the pendulum will shift sooner than you think. That's why 2017-2018 are irrelevant for the Brewers. I have no expectations going into 2018, it's already wonderful that we don't have to watch a 90-loss team while we wait for the prospects. I expect Stearns will gather another band of misfits for spring training and maybe a couple of them will work out.

[StearnsFTW]

See my post above where I laid out how it's going to be difficult to compete against the Cubs for the next 4 or so years. That's the problem.

 

A Cubs team that just sent away a group of top prospects in response to the Brewers' success.

 

If the Brewers stick to their plan, the pendulum will shift sooner than you think. That's why 2017-2018 are irrelevant for the Brewers. I have no expectations going into 2018, it's already wonderful that we don't have to watch a 90-loss team while we wait for the prospects. I expect Stearns will gather another band of misfits for spring training and maybe a couple of them will work out.

 

Pretty much perfectly stated in my opinion.

 

Personally, I will be very disappointed if they make a big move by trading prospects. I just want the GM of ONE of the teams I root for not to be an incompetent idiot. He's doing great so far.

[Boomer5]

I have a question. Will it be a challenge competing against the Cubs? Just not sure, since I haven't seen it discussed at all.

 

The Cubs are looking quite vulnerable. Yes they can probably hit far better than they have been, but their depth down on the farm is non-existent and their rotation is looking old even with adding Quintana.

 

Again, according to the analytics we are currently far from them in terms of MLB talent but as our young guys are coming up, their current guys are getting older and the gap should close.

[reillymcshane]

Back to the thread - Expectations for 2018:

 

Brewers resign Sogard and make him our everyday 2B. It will a modest deal for 2-3 years. The team likes his left handed bat and on base ability. He's a smart guy (I mean, look at the glasses - he has to be smart, right?). The team will take the gamble that his performance this year isn't a fluke. They don't expect him to hit .300, but if they can get .280 and a .350 OBP - plus good, consistent defense - they will be thrilled.

 

Villar is gone. This is my 'bold' guess for 2018. The team loves his abilities, but their frustration with his mental lapses and poor decision making will cause them to trade him. If the Sogard option didn't exist, they would probably try Villar for another year - but now that we are seen as possible contenders, accountability has to come into play. I think I read a comment about Villar by an Astro player or exec who - at the time of his trade to Milwaukee - said something like he was a 'knucklehead.' The Brewers will come to that conclusion as well and cut ties.

 

Brinson will be a full time OF. In fact, I'm predicting he is up and playing full time by sometime in August - similar to what the team did with Arcia last year.

 

Club brings back Vogt (assuming his injury isn't severe).

 

Team picks up Garza's option for $5M. It's a great deal for a back of the rotation guy.

 

Rotation out of camp is Nelson, Anderson, Garza, Woodruff and Suter. Burnes is in the rotation by mid-season.

 

Hader goes to the bullpen full time.

 

Brewers sign one or two free agent relievers in the off season. Guys like Neshak - overpaying a bit on 1-2 year deals - deals that won't cripple the franchise if the guy flames out.

 

Peralta will be released - probably before the end of this season.

 

Of course, all this is can change if we make any trades or have any injuries in the coming months. My guesses are based on the team make up as of right now.

[clancyphile]

I think 2018 will be the year that some of the young players will be brought up. The Brewers will move Garza and Guerra over the offseason. It will be when Woodruff, Suter, and Wang get long looks to see if they are the future or stopgaps.

 

Brinson and Phillips will platoon in CF. We may see Cordell come up as a bench asset. There will be some trades to clear room for them. But the young players will be coming up.

 

We'll see Corbin Burnes in Milwaukee by August 1.

 

Stearns will still look for the nuggets, but my hope is that most of the searching is done in the system.

[rickh150]

Being a GM is an easy job when there's no pressure to win. All you have to do is say "we have a plan for the future" and you have job security if the owner is on board. It doesn't take any skill whatsoever to turn a Shaw into lots of nice looking prospects. The real challenge is adding pieces to turn a promising group into a championship contender. Stearns got beat to the punch by the Cubs who understood acquiring Quintana would not just help their rotation but would turn around their mindset completely. Opportunity lost I'm afraid. That's what happens when your GM is in his early 30's and still learning nuances about the game.

 

Johnbriggs is right, though, that our GM does lack deadline deal experience to a certain extent! You may disagree with him on certain points and I do too, but DS hasn't ever been lead dog in a deadline buyer deal. The reflective, calculating position can take a backseat when GMs want an answer NOW and time to make wise, quick decisions are needed. That being said, DS gets an A or A+ for his job With the Brewers thus far.... simply amazing.

[Boomer5]

Being a GM is an easy job when there's no pressure to win. All you have to do is say "we have a plan for the future" and you have job security if the owner is on board. It doesn't take any skill whatsoever to turn a Shaw into lots of nice looking prospects. The real challenge is adding pieces to turn a promising group into a championship contender. Stearns got beat to the punch by the Cubs who understood acquiring Quintana would not just help their rotation but would turn around their mindset completely. Opportunity lost I'm afraid. That's what happens when your GM is in his early 30's and still learning nuances about the game.

 

Johnbriggs is right, though, that our GM does lack deadline deal experience to a certain extent! You may disagree with him on certain points and I do too, but DS hasn't ever been lead dog in a deadline buyer deal. The reflective, calculating position can take a backseat when GMs want an answer NOW and time to make wise, quick decisions are needed. That being said, DS gets an A or A+ for his job With the Brewers thus far.... simply amazing.

 

Briggs is correct. There is a huge difference between trading away what turned out to be excellent trade chips and being the front runner and outmaneuvering a guy the caliber of Epstein

 

Had DS made zero moves of any kind and just retained his roster, our team would still be quite competitive in a down 2017 NL Central

 

1B Lind

2B Scooter

SS Arcia

3B Segura

LF Davis

CF Phillips

RF Santana

C Lucroy

 

Bench Braun, Perez, Maldonado

 

P: Nelson

P: Davies

P: Garza

P: Suter

P: Woodruff

 

Closer Kintzler

Set Up: Knebel

7th: Hader

 

Yeah that not a perfect team of course but no one would make zero moves in a year and half. But it does go to show that there were plenty of excellent trade chips to play with for the incoming GM. The Red Sox trade is one of the franchises all time best. I do like the Rangers trade though that wasn't the deal he wanted.

 

So 2017 the MLB roster would have been just fine. Where we are going forward is all based on the following:

 

1. Is Shaw going to be a All Star caliber cornerstone going forward?

2. Can Anderson and Nelson continue their excellent 2017 going forward?

3. Will Brinson make the jump to be our regular 2018 CF and be the guy we all think he is?

4. Will Villar bounce back or if not can we reasonably expect Sogard to play well next year?

5. Can Braun give us a 120 game season next year because he is not tradable. Phillips is a good option for LF if he isn't.

6. Can we fix the bullpen?

7. Is a rotation of Nelson, Davies, Anderson, Garza, Suter/Woodruff good enough in 2018?

8. What is the realistic projection of Ortiz, Woodruff, and Dubon for the 2018 Brewers as I assume those are the closest guys we have to the Majors?

9. Will our farm have the performance that is more in line with the projection? We had a number of guys who started as top 100 who fell off by mid season. It's not getting a lot of talk here but that is a far worse development than our current free fall.

[Ennder]

This year was always just a building year for me. Build up the guys we have in value to sell them off because most of them are place holders. Unfortunately Villar has stunk, Braun has been injured and Broxton hasn't developed at all as they were the clearest sells for me. Santana and Arcia have shown some progress so they are the clear two to start building around for me.

 

Next year I see us breaking in a couple young guys. 2019 we start making decisions to be contenders either that year or in 2020. Most of the franchises real growth is still happening in the minor leagues and is a good 2-4 years away. So any deal they make right now should be focused on 2019 at the earliest and probably 2020-2022 being realitic. That is why trading for Quintana would have been a bad move, especially considering the price tag. Stearns might only be 30 but he absolutely did the right thing for the team by not outbidding the Cubs. Quintana is controllable 3 more years but by the final year he is likely going to be fading and it is the first one where we really likely will compete.

 

The Cubs have gone the path of going all in during Rizzo/Bryant's peak and that makes total sense for them. We have to hope our peak matches the Cubs fade somewhere around 2020-2022 most likely. Stearns approach seems to be to build for consistent good teams and to do that you can't be completely emptying your prospects the way the Cubs did. They have a little more leeway since they can just throw money at problems so that model works a bit better for them than it would for us.

[clancyphile]

This year was always just a building year for me. Build up the guys we have in value to sell them off because most of them are place holders. Unfortunately Villar has stunk, Braun has been injured and Broxton hasn't developed at all as they were the clearest sells for me. Santana and Arcia have shown some progress so they are the clear two to start building around for me.

 

Next year I see us breaking in a couple young guys. 2019 we start making decisions to be contenders either that year or in 2020. Most of the franchises real growth is still happening in the minor leagues and is a good 2-4 years away. So any deal they make right now should be focused on 2019 at the earliest and probably 2020-2022 being realitic. That is why trading for Quintana would have been a bad move, especially considering the price tag. Stearns might only be 30 but he absolutely did the right thing for the team by not outbidding the Cubs. Quintana is controllable 3 more years but by the final year he is likely going to be fading and it is the first one where we really likely will compete.

 

The Cubs have gone the path of going all in during Rizzo/Bryant's peak and that makes total sense for them. We have to hope our peak matches the Cubs fade somewhere around 2020-2022 most likely. Stearns approach seems to be to build for consistent good teams and to do that you can't be completely emptying your prospects the way the Cubs did. They have a little more leeway since they can just throw money at problems so that model works a bit better for them than it would for us.

 

That is, really, the big question the Brewers face.

 

How do you beat teams like the Cubs, Dodgers, Red Sox, and Yankees, who can throw money at free agents year-in and year-out?

 

Right now, the Brewers may need to look at trying to replicate the Lind trade with deals centered around Garza, Guerra, and even Broxton.

 

At some point in the medium term, MLB need to go back to some form of the older compensation system and/or a salary cap and allow teams to trade June amateur draft picks.

[Brewers4Ever]

This year was always just a building year for me. Build up the guys we have in value to sell them off because most of them are place holders. Unfortunately Villar has stunk, Braun has been injured and Broxton hasn't developed at all as they were the clearest sells for me. Santana and Arcia have shown some progress so they are the clear two to start building around for me.

 

Next year I see us breaking in a couple young guys. 2019 we start making decisions to be contenders either that year or in 2020. Most of the franchises real growth is still happening in the minor leagues and is a good 2-4 years away. So any deal they make right now should be focused on 2019 at the earliest and probably 2020-2022 being realitic. That is why trading for Quintana would have been a bad move, especially considering the price tag. Stearns might only be 30 but he absolutely did the right thing for the team by not outbidding the Cubs. Quintana is controllable 3 more years but by the final year he is likely going to be fading and it is the first one where we really likely will compete.

 

The Cubs have gone the path of going all in during Rizzo/Bryant's peak and that makes total sense for them. We have to hope our peak matches the Cubs fade somewhere around 2020-2022 most likely. Stearns approach seems to be to build for consistent good teams and to do that you can't be completely emptying your prospects the way the Cubs did. They have a little more leeway since they can just throw money at problems so that model works a bit better for them than it would for us.

 

That is, really, the big question the Brewers face.

 

How do you beat teams like the Cubs, Dodgers, Red Sox, and Yankees, who can throw money at free agents year-in and year-out?

 

Right now, the Brewers may need to look at trying to replicate the Lind trade with deals centered around Garza, Guerra, and even Broxton.

 

At some point in the medium term, MLB need to go back to some form of the older compensation system and/or a salary cap and allow teams to trade June amateur draft picks.

 

I agree. And one thing that I don't quite understand is why people here think the Cubs will die in 2021. They're not just going to let all their players walk. They will resign Rizzo, Bryant, Baez/Russell, Contreras. It's not like they're hurting for cash guys.

[adambr2]

I agree. And one thing that I don't quite understand is why people here think the Cubs will die in 2021. They're not just going to let all their players walk. They will resign Rizzo, Bryant, Baez/Russell, Contreras. It's not like they're hurting for cash guys.

 

This forum is for Brewer fans, and on occasion, friendly fans of opposing teams. Why not post in the forum of the team that you're actually a fan of rather than continuing to pretend to be a Brewer fan?

[Brewers4Ever]

I agree. And one thing that I don't quite understand is why people here think the Cubs will die in 2021. They're not just going to let all their players walk. They will resign Rizzo, Bryant, Baez/Russell, Contreras. It's not like they're hurting for cash guys.

 

This forum is for Brewer fans, and on occasion, friendly fans of opposing teams. Why not post in the forum of the team that you're actually a fan of rather than continuing to pretend to be a Brewer fan?

 

I'm a Brewers fan. Stop making up lies about me on all the different threads in the forum. I'm getting a bit tired of it.

[pacopete4]

I agree. And one thing that I don't quite understand is why people here think the Cubs will die in 2021. They're not just going to let all their players walk. They will resign Rizzo, Bryant, Baez/Russell, Contreras. It's not like they're hurting for cash guys.

 

This forum is for Brewer fans, and on occasion, friendly fans of opposing teams. Why not post in the forum of the team that you're actually a fan of rather than continuing to pretend to be a Brewer fan?

 

I'm a Brewers fan. Stop making up lies about me on all the different threads in the forum. I'm getting a bit tired of it.

 

I think the feeling is mutual man. You've chosen your path of how you interact with others on these boards and the type of content in which you try to cram down our throats. Change or don't but don't complain when people call you out on it like your some victim.

[adambr2]

I agree. And one thing that I don't quite understand is why people here think the Cubs will die in 2021. They're not just going to let all their players walk. They will resign Rizzo, Bryant, Baez/Russell, Contreras. It's not like they're hurting for cash guys.

 

This forum is for Brewer fans, and on occasion, friendly fans of opposing teams. Why not post in the forum of the team that you're actually a fan of rather than continuing to pretend to be a Brewer fan?

 

I'm a Brewers fan. Stop making up lies about me on all the different threads in the forum. I'm getting a bit tired of it.

 

Calling it like I see it. Almost all of your posts involve the Cubs in some way and you seem to have plenty of knowledge on them and have demonstrated none on the Brewers.

 

How's this for a test, because any real Brewer fan that posts here would know the answer. One specific Brewer trade in the last year is generally seen as a big win for the Brewers and was a 4 for 1 deal. Who was this trade with and what players were involved? How is the player or players we traded away doing this year?

 

If I'm wrong, my apologies, but I won't apologize for calling you out on your posts. You have been here 5 days and have done nothing but either complain or remind us of how great the Cubs are.

[Ennder]

 

I agree. And one thing that I don't quite understand is why people here think the Cubs will die in 2021. They're not just going to let all their players walk. They will resign Rizzo, Bryant, Baez/Russell, Contreras. It's not like they're hurting for cash guys.

 

I didn't say die, I said start to fade. I gave a time frame of 2020 to 2022. They have no real prospects in their system so they are going to have to throw money at the pitching next season and to replace Lester. In 2021 Rizzo will be 31 and likely starting to fade. Any of their players who don't excel will need cash replacements. The older core of the team will be going away without a lot replacing them. They can fix a little of that with this years and next years draft but not all of it.

 

Teams usually have a 5 to 7 year window with a group of prospects. The Cubs started in 2015 so they likely have a window into 2020-2022 before they struggle to keep said window open.

[Brewers4Ever]

 

Calling it like I see it. Almost all of your posts involve the Cubs in some way and you seem to have plenty of knowledge on them and have demonstrated none on the Brewers.

 

How's this for a test, because any real Brewer fan that posts here would know the answer. One specific Brewer trade in the last year is generally seen as a big win for the Brewers and was a 4 for 1 deal. Who was this trade with and what players were involved? How is the player or players we traded away doing this year?

 

If I'm wrong, my apologies, but I won't apologize for calling you out on your posts. You have been here 5 days and have done nothing but either complain or remind us of how great the Cubs are.

 

Pretty easy. Thornburg for Shaw and Dubon + couple other guys. Obviously huge win for us with Shaw killing it this year.

 

As for my knowledge about the Cubs, they're a divisional rival and our biggest competitor. Plus they just won the WS last year. I think it's only natural to know things about our biggest obstacle right now.