Current expectations for 2018

[owbc]

With all the recent talk about trading for pieces that will be around for a couple years, I started to wonder what our current expectations are for 2018. It seems like some regression might be expected from some of this year's key pieces, but more prospects will be coming up to fill in some of the gaps.

 

The long-term plan a few months ago seemed to assume that the Brewers would not be a serious contender until 2019 at the earliest (maybe .500 in 2018?).

 

It seems that there are two paths to take here. If we trade for pieces in the next 2 weeks that are only controllable through 2018, it would signal that the plan has been adjusted to assume a competitive team in 2018.

 

Alternatively, they could trade for two-month rentals (Neshek) that would allow for a push this year without making any effort to strengthen the 2018 roster. Players with longer-term control might help this year and in the future, but would come at a more significant cost.

 

So, have your expectations for 2018 changed over the past few months?

[Bombers]

My concern is this year is on pace to be similar to 2005 where we finally finished with a .500 record after years of losing. However, we faltered down the stretch and had a shot at post season that year. But we all knew we were not ready. So we let the older guys go finally rolled the whole year in 06 with the young guns. (Fielder, Hardy, Weeks, Hart) After a disappointing year in 2006 we said, yep just 1 pitcher away and purchased Jeff Suppan. (Still makes me mad) we gave up a high 2nd round pick for Suppan. I just don't want to see that again. If we would have just stayed the course and continued drafting and developing we would have been much better off. Stay the course and minimize expectations for next year as we are not there yet. After this week, the following 16 games of @ WAS, CHC, STL, @ TB , @MN/MN will be telling of where we sit. Then again at the end of August / early sept when we @ COL, @ SF, @ LAD, STL, WAS, @ CIN, @ CHC. Those are two really tough stretches coming up.

 

I think the largest challenge for the Brewers brass is the maneuvering of our 40 man and what to do with log jams like we are starting to see like our OF: Braun / Broxton/ Santana / Phillips / Brinson. We don't need 5 starting OF but who do you trade? So I just continue the course and aim for 2019/2020. If we make the playoffs this year, it should be with the band we got.

[igor67]

Externally you have to assume that the Cubs will not spend the first half+ looking like Sal Bando is in charge. I would be very surprised if Brinson and/or Phillips is not handed a full time shot. Which could be amazing, but so many guys have broken out this year that regression does seem in order, probably moreso on the pitching side as we are going to have to work in some of the real prospects, not nuggets that Stearns found. I could see the bullpen being better with so many young guys really ready to give it a go, but the rotation. Our current win% puts us on pace for 88-89 wins. I expect more like 84, but with a large margin either way. If we can find a way to acclimate the AAA wave 2019 onward could look real exciting though.

[FVBrewerFan]

My expectations for 2018 are the same as 2017. That they continue to follow the plan, and the record is what it is. Not trade prospects for a rental bullpen arm, not avoid trading assets like Knebel, Thames, Shaw, etc. if the right offer comes along.

 

2018 will be about introducing a few more prospects into the mix, and continue to mine deep to build the rest of the team. Impossible to predict or expect a certain record, just continue the process of injecting young talent into the 25.

[BrewCrewBlueDevil]

Acquire a bunch of talented players, let them rot in minors while your CF, 2B and RP is inadequate and you blow a five game lead........ repeat.

[JohnBriggs12]

Being a GM is an easy job when there's no pressure to win. All you have to do is say "we have a plan for the future" and you have job security if the owner is on board. It doesn't take any skill whatsoever to turn a Shaw into lots of nice looking prospects. The real challenge is adding pieces to turn a promising group into a championship contender. Stearns got beat to the punch by the Cubs who understood acquiring Quintana would not just help their rotation but would turn around their mindset completely. Opportunity lost I'm afraid. That's what happens when your GM is in his early 30's and still learning nuances about the game.

[adambr2]

Being a GM is an easy job when there's no pressure to win. All you have to do is say "we have a plan for the future" and you have job security if the owner is on board. It doesn't take any skill whatsoever to turn a Shaw into lots of nice looking prospects. The real challenge is adding pieces to turn a promising group into a championship contender. Stearns got beat to the punch by the Cubs who understood acquiring Quintana would not just help their rotation but would turn around their mindset completely. Opportunity lost I'm afraid. That's what happens when your GM is in his early 30's and still learning nuances about the game.

 

So it's Stearns' fault for not getting into a bidding war for Quintana. Gotta love it.

 

The Cubs were going to get help before the deadline whether it was Quintana or someone else. We cannot go out and outbid them for every upgrade they want.

[OnaBadger58]

Being a GM is an easy job when there's no pressure to win. All you have to do is say "we have a plan for the future" and you have job security if the owner is on board. It doesn't take any skill whatsoever to turn a Shaw into lots of nice looking prospects. The real challenge is adding pieces to turn a promising group into a championship contender. Stearns got beat to the punch by the Cubs who understood acquiring Quintana would not just help their rotation but would turn around their mindset completely. Opportunity lost I'm afraid. That's what happens when your GM is in his early 30's and still learning nuances about the game.

Can Quintana hit with RISP? Thw Brewers have 7 runs in there 3 game losing streak with no clutch hitting. It is too early in the stage of the rebuild trade talent in the farm system. I understand Quintana is controlled for another couple years, but he could be gone by the time the Brewers are ready to make something happen. As tough as it may be, I think the only moves should be within the system.

[3and2Fastball]

Expectations, to me, for 2018 are the following:

 

Give plenty of playing time to Brinson & Phillips, we need to figure out who our longterm CF is

Keston Hiura finishing the year in AAA, with the idea that he'll be a big contributor in 2019

No more long leashes with poor production. If Broxton/Villar etc don't hit, they sit

Figure out if Hader is a starter or relief ace

Woodruff in the starting rotation

Mauricio Dubon on the MLB roster, as a super utility player, getting 3-4 starts per week at various positions

Orlando Arcia in the All-Star Game

[rickh150]

Expectations, to me, for 2018 are the following:

 

Give plenty of playing time to Brinson & Phillips, we need to figure out who our longterm CF is

Keston Hiura finishing the year in AAA, with the idea that he'll be a big contributor in 2019

No more long leashes with poor production. If Broxton/Villar etc don't hit, they sit

Figure out if Hader is a starter or relief ace

Woodruff in the starting rotation

Mauricio Dubon on the MLB roster, as a super utility player, getting 3-4 starts per week at various positions

Orlando Arcia in the All-Star Game

 

Contending for a wildcard, at least.

Kinda like when Bo Ryan took over in Madison, expectations have risen a bit here.

That being said, I had similar expectations from 2005 thru 2015.

[Cool Hand Lucroy]

My expectation was always for this team to be "in the mix" by 2018. I don't think that should change now. A lot will depend on how Stearns and co. decide to balance the young talent in terms of offense versus pitching.

 

There are a lot of talented OFs in the system, and Dubon is someone I feel good about too. Then you've got Villar, who, well, who really knows what he is at this point. So, do you trade some of these guys for another starting pitcher? Do you assume Nelson and Anderson are for real and try to add a solid #3-#4 type to solidify the rotation? Or do you roll with the young starting possibilities (Hader, Woodruff, etc.) and see what happens?

 

If it were me, I'd look to move Garza this offseason (maybe even before the deadline) while he's got some value as an innings-eater on a team-friendly deal. I have to think the Twins would pay for him given that they just tried to bring back Colon. Some other teams might have interest. Maybe you get a bullpen arm or something while clearing some space. I'd also look to package some of the OF glut to see if we can get a middle of rotation arm. I think the Crew can win with five #3 type starting pitchers, and we may not be all that far off from that right now.

 

I think a corollary to this thread is "What would make 2017 a success?" What would provide reason to believe the window was opening for the Crew? I have to say it feels like we're there. Fangraphs has our true roster W% as .440, or 72 wins. Obviously this is a team with a lot of error margin on either side because of its youth, but if the Crew ends up in the 80-85 range that's a signal to me that expectations need to be higher entering next season.

[igor67]

In the 22 completed seasons of the National League Central's history the division leader has finished with less then 90 wins 6 times, and baseball prospectus simulation has them at 86.5. Which means there is roughly a 1/4-1/3 chance any given year that a so-so team wins and every year under the expanded wildcard at least 1 of the teams has also needed less then 90 wins. In short if you think the Brewers are in anyway shape or form a better then .500 team next year the 'window' is open. Whether or not it's going to be a good year is very up in the air. One finds a similar number of really high win totals being needed to win the division as well. Which is helpful because with better luck the Brewers could have snuck a 3rd playoff appearance via the wild card in the last run. Worse luck however would have been possible and the Brewers could have also finished that span with exactly 1 wildcard appearance and no division champs even with a 96 and 90 win seasons in there. The bar is a little lower now, so it really does pay to have a team that is in the mix and adjust frankly based on how lucky they are that year internally and how well the rest of the division is doing.

[FVBrewerFan]

I don't know we can have it both ways. Most of us seem to want to see Brinson, Phillips, Hader, Woodruff, Burnes, Wang, etc. get a shot to play full time in 2018. I know I do.

 

If that happens, I don't think it's fair to expect a playoff appearance, or even compete for one. Maybe all those guys come up and play great, and they're a contender. Maybe none of them pan out and they will be well below .500. Chances are, they will be somewhere in between.

 

But the goal should be to continue to find out who can be contributors, who can be a star, etc. That doesn't mean you punt the season. The goal is still to win games. But when you're doing that with a lot of young players, unfair to EXPECT them to win 90+ games.

[DuWayne Steurer]

Being a GM is an easy job when there's no pressure to win.

 

Attanasio is one of the most hyper-competitive owners in the league. They are absolutely trying to win. Just because they aren't implementing a plan that's consistent with the way you think they should do it, or the players you want them to do it with doesn't mean they aren't trying to win.

[Humans Need Water]

Being a GM is an easy job when there's no pressure to win. All you have to do is say "we have a plan for the future" and you have job security if the owner is on board. It doesn't take any skill whatsoever to turn a Shaw into lots of nice looking prospects. The real challenge is adding pieces to turn a promising group into a championship contender. Stearns got beat to the punch by the Cubs who understood acquiring Quintana would not just help their rotation but would turn around their mindset completely. Opportunity lost I'm afraid. That's what happens when your GM is in his early 30's and still learning nuances about the game.

Extremely short-sighted take overall and a dangerous accusation.

 

Regarding your final point. Here's what I'll tell you about guys in their early 30s with his academic background. I'm an Executive Recruiter for a Fortune 185 company (before spinning off we were a 12B arm of a Fortune 8 company) and part of my scope involves high level analytics and strategy roles within the company working directly with our strategy, analytics, M&A leaders. I speak with guys weekly from top tier management consulting firms who have their Bachelors/Grad degrees from Harvard, MIT, Oxford, U of Chicago, Penn, Stanford, Northwestern, Berkeley, Dartmouth, Columbia, etc. These guys are no different than Stearns - and I listen to Stearns every time I can because these are the guys I enjoy speaking with most. Their personalities vary, obviously, but they're all cut from the same cloth. They're very intelligent, articulate, poised, polished and calculated. They possess a very high level of critical thinking ability. They're very hands-on; they see and understand the big picture playing an integral role in developing and mapping a strategy then navigating through obstacles to that end goal while living in the details. Stearns' age and years of experience are in the sweet spot of who I speak with (28-34yrs old with 6-10yrs of experience) and they're all making 300-600K driving strategy for Fortune 100 (and smaller) companies working directly with, and influencing, those C-level folks. Stearns does this same thing but in a different, more unique industry.

 

Still learning the nuances of the game? How in the world has he pulled off the trades he has the past 2yrs then? Have you seen the insanely quick turnaround in performance at the MLB level as well as literally turning the farm from a bottom 5 to a top 5 in that same 2yr span? But he is still learning just like everybody else. The game changes over time, how you operate changes over time. Life experiences change over time. Name one GM who's stopped learning? But to insinuate Stearns' understanding of the nuances of the game are essentially at a below-satisfactory level is beyond insulting. He's been involved in MLB for almost a decade spending time in the Commissioner's office as well. His background is well-rounded allowing him to pull different perspectives based on his varied experiences. Not to mention he surrounded himself with a ton of front office talent who bring their perspectives and experiences. These guys don't work on an island. They're utilizing everyone and every tool at their disposal.

 

Stearns didn't get beat. He places Quintana's value as X and offered that. The Cubs, based on reports, offered "by far and away" the best deal. These weren't the only 2 teams in the mix either. The Cubs can afford to blow up their farm as they're in a legitimate run to win back-to-back rings. The Brewers are just getting started for making consistent runs at winning the division then hopefully putting it all together during those playoff runs. Both teams are operating in different environments and will always operate in different environments unless we get a billionaire owner.

 

Also, you're assuming the Cubs were guaranteed to stay in that same under-performing and mind set bubble from the first half. These guys have a veteran staff. They have some veteran position players. They have a lot of young talent. They just won a ring, without Quintana, so they've been in the pressure cooker. They didn't need Quintana for a mental and performance boost but clearly a talent like him will surely help in both areas. 5.5 games can be lost in the blink of an eye with a team like that in the division. If the Brewers make the playoffs then great. If the Cubs surpass them then so be it. Present day, the Brewers are in a much better long-term position than everyone in the division and that's exciting.

[FVBrewerFan]

Guys......don't take the bait

[82brewcrew82]

Being a GM is an easy job when there's no pressure to win. All you have to do is say "we have a plan for the future" and you have job security if the owner is on board. It doesn't take any skill whatsoever to turn a Shaw into lots of nice looking prospects. The real challenge is adding pieces to turn a promising group into a championship contender. Stearns got beat to the punch by the Cubs who understood acquiring Quintana would not just help their rotation but would turn around their mindset completely. Opportunity lost I'm afraid. That's what happens when your GM is in his early 30's and still learning nuances about the game.

 

 

I disagree with this on almost every point. For years we have watched this team flounder around without any real plan. Now that they clearly have one and things appear to be pointing in the right direction you want to scrap the plan in favor of a win now approach which is what caused us to have to "rebuild" in the first place?

 

I doubt anyone is looking to deal Shaw unless they just get bowled over. Is Stearns not the primary reason this group is "promising" in the first place? I think he has a done a great job of not only putting those pieces in place but also stocking a farms system with viable options for depth and additional acquisitions. We couldn't meet the package the Cubs gave up and we shouldn't have even tried. Stearns didn't get beat to the punch, he made the wise and calculated decision.

 

Strearns has shown plenty of nuance. He showed nuance when Lucroy backed out of the Cleveland trade and managed a very good return despite that impediment. He showed tons of nuance in getting the packages he did for Thornburg and Smith. He has shown plenty of nuance in the roster churn that has resulted in this team being where it is. Of all the moves he has made (or hasn't made) show more than enough nuance and that he belongs in the game no matter his age.

 

I appreciate your commitment to a win now philosophy but I am very happy our GM does subscribe to that theory.

[Humans Need Water]

Now, to answer the question posed in the thread. My expectations have not changed for 2018. I expect to see Broxton traded in the off-season with Brinson starting in CF but Phillips also playing a ton alongside Braun and Santana. I expect to see the same IF and catching group. I expect to see Woodruff in the rotation and Garza traded. I expect to see Hader given a shot for a rotation spot. It's up to him to stay there. Otherwise he falls back into a dominant pen role.

 

I expect some regression from Nelson and Chase but also much improvement from Davies. Woodruff upgrades over Garza. The rotation then, overall, is upgraded from this year. The position players as a unit are upgraded as I can't see any way possible where Brinson/Phillips are worse than Broxton. Villar is talented and even decent improvement is a huge upgrade from his performance thus far. The pen needs to be shored up so I expect Stearns to focus on that by this deadline and in the off-season.

 

2018 is the start of us competing at a higher level than this year and I see us getting better and better with the more experience the young guys get as well as adding dudes like Burnes, Dubon, Ortiz, T.Williams, Derby, etc next season or by 2019. I expect them to stay the course but also improve in certain areas where needed (namely the pen)

[3and2Fastball]

Extremely short-sighted take overall and a dangerous accusation.

............. Present day, the Brewers are in a much better long-term position than everyone in the division and that's exciting.

 

I edited your full quote just to save space but wanted to say Thank You! That was one of the most articulate & thought provoking posts I've seen on here in awhile. Very well said.

 

Being a GM is similar to being a chess master, you must work within the context of a 5 year plan at all times. The game does change and evolve. I sense that Stearns is a little ahead of the curve in looking for athleticism & versatile positions players vs just 3TO mashers. I see him and others like him staying current as opposed to GM's like Dombrowski & Avila and to a lesser degree Cashman for whom the game is passing them by....

[MillerParkSouth]

If only Stearns would have traded Brinson, Hader, Diaz and whatever else it took to get Q!!!!

 

I would expect somewhat of a regression next year, which is fine as long as we stay the course. It's all about 2019 in my eyes, so let's explore some trades for our outfielders this winter to clear room for Brinson and maybe Phillips, see what the young arms have and go from there.

[Boomer5]

We've had so many players having career years that it's incredibly tough to know where we are. Are guys like Thames, Shaw, and Anderson building blocks or are they going to be the 2018 version of Junior and Villar?

 

Fangraphs still has us as one of the worst rosters in the game so I have no idea what to expect in 2018. I'm just enjoying the ride in 2017.

[Austin Tatious]

I think David Stearns is terrific. I wish we had him in 1992. We may not have wasted a precious decade plus of our lives with no hope living under Bud Selig's myth that small market teams can't compete. The psychology of that era was just killer.

 

It's interesting that baseball has hopped on the hiring of highly educated types. Like many fields, you could hire based on academic credentials. It took baseball 100 plus years to do that, but it's striking. You look at a guy like Rick Hahn. He's absolutely brilliant. Harvard Law. Daniels at Texas, Theo, and on and on.

 

The trend should continue to other decision making positions. You had a high school grad in a Ray Montgomery running the draft. In other professions, that would not happen. Making decisions in the draft is not about a kid's arm slot and speed or batting average or whatever. You need a smart guy, a guy who has been educated and been trained to think critically and make intelligent decisions based on a larger, multi-year context, while taking in a variety of considerations including opportunities (or lack thereof) to acquire talent from other sources. I'd say ten years from now, you might see these smart GM's hire smart farm directors and the Ray Montgomerys, bless their hearts, would provide scouting inputs. Much like a doctor goes to medical school or a lawyer goes to law school, the guy without the credentials could aspire to be a physician assistant or paralegal. We may be seeing that already, as Montgomery was given a scouting position and college educated Tod Johnson runs the draft. Eventually, you will see even higher caliber guys take those jobs. Stearns and Daniels had the good fortune of timing so they could get these jobs young.

 

We could run a study on favorite Stearns trade and there'd be many answers because he's been brilliant. Freddy Peralta, Travis Shaw, Chase Anderson/Isan Diaz, etc. It's been eye popping what he's done. Stearns is not a nerd studying the nuances of scouting. He's taking those inputs. What he's doing is thinking critically and making sound decisions in an organized manner with the long term. You'd like to see similar decision makers in the farm director spot, taking input from the high school educated scouts and maybe some MIT analytics types. As the GM jobs fill up, the future David Stearns' of the world will take farm positions and help build rosters and move up. Twenty years from now, it may be hard for a thirty year old Harvard kid to get a GM job, because there will be fifty year olds already saturating the market. It's part of the evolution of the profession.

 

Did Stearns get beaten to the punch on Quintana? You could say that and it's a fair view. My view a month ago was that Quintana was the guy to get, over Sonny Gray. Time will tell. Stearns does lack experience and he's gaining it now. You have a southpaw with a nice track record and a team friendly deal with years to go, and that's basically the perfect addition to the roster.

[NievesNoNO]

My expectation for next season is pretty much on par with how the team has performed so far. They've kind of set the bar a little higher, fair or not.

 

I don't see many roster changes happening, but maybe I'm wrong as Stearns has proven to like to turn guys over so far. Maybe Brinson is the new CF, and Villar is replaced or plays better but outside of those two pieces, position player wise I don't see many changes.

 

I think it is important to give Hader and Woodruff, maybe even Burnes a couple cracks at starting down the stretch to find out if they can be future pieces to that rotation and to give them some experience. It's tough to count on 1st and 2nd year pitching to make a significant impact. I'd expect Nelson and Anderson to be the only 2 sure bets in the rotation next season. If they can carry forward their success from this season that would be huge.

 

Overall, I'd expect to be in a similar situation next season. The pitching will likely continue to lag behind the hitting but we hopefully will have a better idea of what pitchers are going to be future rotation pieces.

[Brewers4Ever]

TBH, I just don't see how we beat the Cubs anytime soon. A lot of money comes off their book at season's end and they're going to have the financial flexibility to go out and make a couple big signings to fill holes (probably another starter, maybe Yu Darvish). I look at the age of their players who are controlled through 2020, 2021. Then you look at the rumors of them launching their own TV network in 2020 which will generate bags of cash.

 

I just don't know guys.

[adambr2]

TBH, I just don't see how we beat the Cubs anytime soon. A lot of money comes off their book at season's end and they're going to have the financial flexibility to go out and make a couple big signings to fill holes (probably another starter, maybe Yu Darvish). I look at the age of their players who are controlled through 2020, 2021. Then you look at the rumors of them launching their own TV network in 2020 which will generate bags of cash.

 

I just don't know guys.

 

I certainly haven't been the most optimistic one lately, but pretty much all of your 29 posts are in some way related to how much we suck or how much better the Cubs are than us. We get it.