Michael Fulmer

[Madhawk23]

I know the Tigers insist that he isn't available, but I'm sure they'd be open to discussions at the right price. So, what type of prospect haul would we have to give back to them to even entertain a deal for Fulmer? And is that package worth it? You'd have him under control for 6 years after 2017, right?

 

How about:

 

Brinson

Burnes

Dubon

Herrera

 

Does that package get them to at least consider moving Fulmer? Too much or too little? You've got a Top 20 guy in Brinson, a Top 100 guy (at least) in Burnes who is turning a lot of heads this season, and a borderline Top 100 (and Futures Game participant) in Dubon. Then, we can throw in more of a lottery ticket arm in Herrera who has some good upside. Seems like a good haul to me.

[Madhawk23]

And for the record - I really haven't seen Fulmer pitch much. So, is this a guy that would be worth giving up a haul of prospects for? He seems to have had good success in his first two years in the big leagues, but I'm not very knowledgeable on his stuff. Curious to know if people think he would be worth a big prospect package?

[Greenleaf1]

I've never seen Fulmer pitch but have heard nothing but amazing things about him over the past year and a half or so. Cubs inquired on him but were told it would require Happ/Baez plus more I'm sure, so they moved on to Quintana.

 

I'd guess that any deal for Fulmer starts with Brinson/Hader with no room for negotiations. From there, you're probably adding another top 10 prospect like Diaz/Erceg/Dubon/Clark/Phillips, a 10-20 type (maybe Ponce or Peralta), and then probably a near-MLB ready reliever since I swear all of these big deals tend to include one of these (take your pick on Wang/Archer/Derby?).

 

So let's say the deal is Brinson/Hader/Erceg/Peralta/Archer.....it's a steep price to pay, but I'm not entirely sure I'd rule it out, and I say that as someone who would call Brinson pretty much untouchable for most of the conventional guys out there (Quintana before he was dealt, Gray, etc.).

[reillymcshane]

Fulmer would be amazing if you could get him. Only 24 years old. Team would have 5+ years of control of an outstanding pitcher. He had 4.9 WAR last year, and is at 3.3 this year. Even if you place him as a 4.0 WAR guy, that's 20+ WAR left on his contract - all for probably no more than $30M. 20 WAR is $160M in value - that's a valuable asset.

 

Fangraphs just placed him as the 22nd most valuable asset in the majors:

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/2017-trade-value-11-to-20/

 

As people have said, however, the cost would start with Brinson and Hader - but it won't stop there. Add in at one of Ortiz, Woodruff or Burnes. Then some other players as well.

 

I doubt Detroit makes a trade - but the Crew should do their due diligence. My biggest concern is that Fulmer isn't that sexy of a pitcher. He doesn't strike out a gazillion guys. He's probably not a #1 guy - but more like a #2 type.

[NievesNoNO]

I would give up a ton for Fulmer. He's not only controlled and very good but he's still young enough that you wonder if he might still have some upside left. If he was to make some sort of adjustment and started whiffing a few more batters he'd be in the top tier of starters.

[mlloyd10]

Wonder if its easier getting Fulmer if you take on Verlander

[reillymcshane]

Wonder if its easier getting Fulmer if you take on Verlander

Fulmer is FAR more difficult to get than Verlander.

 

Verlander is 34, performing very average, and owed $70M. Aging, overpaid and mediocre. Not a ton of value there.

 

Fulmer: young, cheap, controllable and very good. That means it's going to take a lot. Far more than Verlander.

[Greenleaf1]

Sounds like the Astros asked about Fulmer and were basically told the Tigers are waiting to trade him this offseason when all teams can bid on him.

 

So Fulmer is probably a no unless we give up like 5 top 10 prospects for him.

[Greenleaf1]

Wonder if its easier getting Fulmer if you take on Verlander

Fulmer is FAR more difficult to get than Verlander.

 

Verlander is 34, performing very average, and owed $70M. Aging, overpaid and mediocre. Not a ton of value there.

 

Fulmer: young, cheap, controllable and very good. That means it's going to take a lot. Far more than Verlander.

 

He meant if we eat Verlander's contract would they be more likely to trade Fulmer, knowing they could get that money off the books.

 

Tigers front office seems to want top prospects and complete salary relief in a Verlander trade though, so I guess they don't see him as the liability that you do.

[And That]

It's a whole lot of risk, and I highly doubt it would happen for that reason, but I have to wonder how much value the Brewers would have to give up for Fulmer if they took on Jordan Zimmerman's contract. With the Brewers' current payroll structure, it isn't crippling though it may well hamper them if they were planning on making a free agent splash in the next couple of offseasons.

[reillymcshane]

Wonder if its easier getting Fulmer if you take on Verlander

Fulmer is FAR more difficult to get than Verlander.

 

Verlander is 34, performing very average, and owed $70M. Aging, overpaid and mediocre. Not a ton of value there.

 

Fulmer: young, cheap, controllable and very good. That means it's going to take a lot. Far more than Verlander.

 

He meant if we eat Verlander's contract would they be more likely to trade Fulmer, knowing they could get that money off the books.

 

Tigers front office seems to want top prospects and complete salary relief in a Verlander trade though, so I guess they don't see him as the liability that you do.

Thanks. Read it wrong.

[reillymcshane]

It's a whole lot of risk, and I highly doubt it would happen for that reason, but I have to wonder how much value the Brewers would have to give up for Fulmer if they took on Jordan Zimmerman's contract. With the Brewers' current payroll structure, it isn't crippling though it may well hamper them if they were planning on making a free agent splash in the next couple of offseasons.

I had forgotten about Zimmerman. Wow, remember when he was an all-star caliber guy people wanted to sign in free agency. Amazing what a couple of years can do.

[Brewers4Ever]

Wouldn't be surprised to still the Cubs make a move for him in the offseason once Jake Arrieta walks.

[Brewer Fever]

Wouldn't be surprised to still the Cubs make a move for him in the offseason once Jake Arrieta walks.

 

Please tell us more about the Cubs

[Eye Black]

Al Avila seems receptive to the idea of trading away his young controllable pitching per this Fangraphs Article...

 

“If you look at our pitching staff, (Daniel) Norris is still young,” said Avila. “(Matt) Boyd and (Michael) Fulmer are still young. Are they going to be part of that process three years from now? Quite possibly they could, but I can’t sit here today and tell you which way it’s going to go. We need to continue to add and acquire, and quite frankly, if we do make any more trades down the road, it’s going to be one of those young guys — maybe.”

[MadThinker88]

Al Avila seems receptive to the idea of trading away his young controllable pitching per this Fangraphs Article...

 

“If you look at our pitching staff, (Daniel) Norris is still young,” said Avila. “(Matt) Boyd and (Michael) Fulmer are still young. Are they going to be part of that process three years from now? Quite possibly they could, but I can’t sit here today and tell you which way it’s going to go. We need to continue to add and acquire, and quite frankly, if we do make any more trades down the road, it’s going to be one of those young guys — maybe.”

 

Translation: They are available IF you blow me away with your offer. Its not a must that I deal 1 (or any) of these young pitchers but if it speeds my rebuild, I would be a fool not to consider your over-payment for my talent..

[JosephC]

I like Fulmer but there are many numbers that suggest the ERA is a bit better than it should be. 6.2 K/9, .273 BABIP, 8.8% HR/FB...the low strikeout rate combined with BABIP and HR/FB ratio moves towards the average probably puts him with an ERA somewhere in the low 4's. I see projections for next year have him with a 4.24 ERA. Certainly nothing wrong with that, but a player the Brewers would have to be careful and not overpay for. Fulmer also finished the season on the DL and then had elbow surgery (ulnar nerve transposition). That's the same surgery Jacob deGrom had, and generally isn't a big deal. Still something to consider.

[Warning Track Power]

Al Avila seems receptive to the idea of trading away his young controllable pitching per this Fangraphs Article...

 

“If you look at our pitching staff, (Daniel) Norris is still young,” said Avila. “(Matt) Boyd and (Michael) Fulmer are still young. Are they going to be part of that process three years from now? Quite possibly they could, but I can’t sit here today and tell you which way it’s going to go. We need to continue to add and acquire, and quite frankly, if we do make any more trades down the road, it’s going to be one of those young guys — maybe.”

Daniel Norris is a guy I would have some interest in as a post-hype type arm that could be available. As I recall, he was the centerpiece in the David Price deal. He has struggled with his command but working with Derek Johnson may help to alleviate some of those issues. Would not even begin to know what the Tigers would be looking for but would a trade from depth (OF - Keon Broxton, Corey Ray-type) be enough? I would certainly do either of those players straight up as I believe Norris has the stuff to be a solid SP if he could ever control it.

[KeithStone53151]

Al Avila seems receptive to the idea of trading away his young controllable pitching per this Fangraphs Article...

 

“If you look at our pitching staff, (Daniel) Norris is still young,” said Avila. “(Matt) Boyd and (Michael) Fulmer are still young. Are they going to be part of that process three years from now? Quite possibly they could, but I can’t sit here today and tell you which way it’s going to go. We need to continue to add and acquire, and quite frankly, if we do make any more trades down the road, it’s going to be one of those young guys — maybe.”

Daniel Norris is a guy I would have some interest in as a post-hype type arm that could be available. As I recall, he was the centerpiece in the David Price deal. He has struggled with his command but working with Derek Johnson may help to alleviate some of those issues. Would not even begin to know what the Tigers would be looking for but would a trade from depth (OF - Keon Broxton, Corey Ray-type) be enough? I would certainly do either of those players straight up as I believe Norris has the stuff to be a solid SP if he could ever control it.

 

Norris dealt with a lot of injury issues as well last year, could explain some of the control issues. He was very highly regarded coming through the minors though. Definitely an interesting name as a buy-low candidate.

[reillymcshane]

Al Avila seems receptive to the idea of trading away his young controllable pitching per this Fangraphs Article...

Daniel Norris is a guy I would have some interest in as a post-hype type arm that could be available. As I recall, he was the centerpiece in the David Price deal. He has struggled with his command but working with Derek Johnson may help to alleviate some of those issues. Would not even begin to know what the Tigers would be looking for but would a trade from depth (OF - Keon Broxton, Corey Ray-type) be enough? I would certainly do either of those players straight up as I believe Norris has the stuff to be a solid SP if he could ever control it.

 

Norris dealt with a lot of injury issues as well last year, could explain some of the control issues. He was very highly regarded coming through the minors though. Definitely an interesting name as a buy-low candidate.

I've always been fan of Norris. Lots of positives about the guy - but he's just never put it together. Consistent control is really the thing he's lacking. He can look like a top-of-the-rotation guy when things are going right. He looked pretty good in 2016 - then struggled with injuries (again) last year. Put up some ugly numbers. If the Brewers thought he was worth it - I'd love to get the guy. Left-handed. Still got four years of control left. Will be 25 in April. Might be a good low-buy option.

[jerichoholicninja]

The Tigers would be pretty stupid to sell low on Norris in their current state.

[Warning Track Power]

The Tigers would be pretty stupid to sell low on Norris in their current state.

Given the weight of the Cabrera's (6 years, $184 million) and Zimmerman's (3 years $74 million) contract plus a bottom 5 farm system, the Tigers are likely entering a long rebuild. Selling major league roster talent at this point is probably a good move.

[bill hAll Star]

The Tigers would be pretty stupid to sell low on Norris in their current state.

Given the weight of the Cabrera's (6 years, $184 million) and Zimmerman's (3 years $74 million) contract plus a bottom 5 farm system, the Tigers are likely entering a long rebuild. Selling major league roster talent at this point is probably a good move.

 

But why would you sell low on Norris? Why not wait to see if you can bump his value up? If the gamble fails, all you missed out on was a weak package probably being offered for Norris right now.

 

Cabrera's contract will be annoying for them for sure, but assuming Chris Ilitch wants to spend somewhere near what his dad did, they could start spending big again pretty soon. It would not be smart for them to do so, but they've already cleared a lot of the huge contracts and Zimmermann's will be over soon enough. They could go on a free agency bonanza after 2018 and be fine if they really wanted to.

 

I agree, though. They probably go with a 2-3 year rebuild and then start spending big while their newly acquired/drafted farm system starts to arrive in the majors in 2021.

[Warning Track Power]

But why would you sell low on Norris? Why not wait to see if you can bump his value up? If the gamble fails, all you missed out on was a weak package probably being offered for Norris right now.

 

Cabrera's contract will be annoying for them for sure, but assuming Chris Ilitch wants to spend somewhere near what his dad did, they could start spending big again pretty soon. It would not be smart for them to do so, but they've already cleared a lot of the huge contracts and Zimmermann's will be over soon enough. They could go on a free agency bonanza after 2018 and be fine if they really wanted to.

 

I agree, though. They probably go with a 2-3 year rebuild and then start spending big while their newly acquired/drafted farm system starts to arrive in the majors in 2021.

Right...and in my original post on the topic, I offered Keon Broxton (likely wishful thinking) or Corey Ray, a similarly dimmed prospect. Buying low on Norris doesn't mean the Tigers accepting say Hernan Perez for Norris. Rather, a dimmed prospect like Ray for Norris is by no means a stretch in my mind given each of their former prospect pedigree.

[reillymcshane]

But why would you sell low on Norris? Why not wait to see if you can bump his value up? If the gamble fails, all you missed out on was a weak package probably being offered for Norris right now.

 

Cabrera's contract will be annoying for them for sure, but assuming Chris Ilitch wants to spend somewhere near what his dad did, they could start spending big again pretty soon. It would not be smart for them to do so, but they've already cleared a lot of the huge contracts and Zimmermann's will be over soon enough. They could go on a free agency bonanza after 2018 and be fine if they really wanted to.

 

I agree, though. They probably go with a 2-3 year rebuild and then start spending big while their newly acquired/drafted farm system starts to arrive in the majors in 2021.

Right...and in my original post on the topic, I offered Keon Broxton (likely wishful thinking) or Corey Ray, a similarly dimmed prospect. Buying low on Norris doesn't mean the Tigers accepting say Hernan Perez for Norris. Rather, a dimmed prospect like Ray for Norris is by no means a stretch in my mind given each of their former prospect pedigree.

Ray for Norris seems like the beginnings of something. While both guys have struggled, each offers hope in some fashion. Ray is a buy-low guy - so is Norris. A lot just depends on what each side thinks of the other guy. The Brewers may think Norris is a lost cause - and the Tigers may feel the same way about Ray. Just never know what teams are thinking.