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Guaranteed Playoff Spot or Play It Out

rickh150

By rickh150,
in Milwaukee Brewers Talk

rickh150 Carolina Mudcats

rickh150

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Hypothetical.....

If we could opt for a guaranteed playoff spot as one of the wild cards, would you opt in? That means we give up the possibility of winning the division, likely to Cubs (or Cards). Feel free to go into detail of different scenarios upon which you would take/not take that option.

 

Here I go....

If I was assured the Cubs would not be in playoffs, I take the WC #1 or #2. To be in this year and the Cubs out... oh, that is just too rich to pass up.

If I was assured the #1 WC, I take it. This assures Brewers of at least one home playoff game. That is one more than anyone would have thought at beginning of season (or even June). Yet, this is likely allowing Cubs in.

If I was assured of #2 WC, however, I don't take it. No playoff home game assurance would lead me to just play out the season.

If I was assured #3 spot as division winner (no home field adv. in Div. Series), I jump at that too.

 

You?

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owbc Carolina Mudcats

owbc

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A wild card spot is only marginally better than missing the playoffs entirely. An immediate 50% chance of elimination in one game, followed by a short 5-game series against the #1 seed (Kershaw x2). The odds of advancing to the NLCS in that scenario are under 10%, maybe under 5%.

 

A division title and a first-round matchup against the Nationals would have considerably higher odds of making the NLCS, perhaps as high as 40%. So you definitely take the all-or-nothing approach this year.

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rickh150 Carolina Mudcats

rickh150

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Really? We are that much of an underdog against the Dodgers? No way. If we get the #1 WC and home field, it will be above a 50% chance we win..... more like 60 to 70% against whomever. If we play the Dodgers, they'll have the advantage. Yet, Kershaw has not dominated in the playoffs recently...... Dodgers either.
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owbc Carolina Mudcats

owbc

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Really? We are that much of an underdog against the Dodgers? No way. If we get the #1 WC and home field, it will be above a 50% chance we win..... more like 60 to 70% against whomever. If we play the Dodgers, they'll have the advantage. Yet, Kershaw has not dominated in the playoffs recently...... Dodgers either.

 

I disagree.

 

1. Small sample, but the visiting team is 7-3 in the single-elimination WC games.

2. Disadvantage in subsequent starting pitching matchups because of wild card game.

3. Dominance of LA this year. They are on pace to win 111 games.

 

The wild card games are just trouble all around. They need to be avoided. Imagine dropping two of them in a row like the Pirates did in 2014 and 2015.

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rickh150 Carolina Mudcats

rickh150

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Really? We are that much of an underdog against the Dodgers? No way. If we get the #1 WC and home field, it will be above a 50% chance we win..... more like 60 to 70% against whomever. If we play the Dodgers, they'll have the advantage. Yet, Kershaw has not dominated in the playoffs recently...... Dodgers either.

 

I disagree.

 

1. Small sample, but the visiting team is 7-3 in the single-elimination WC games.

2. Disadvantage in subsequent starting pitching matchups because of wild card game.

3. Dominance of LA this year. They are on pace to win 111 games.

 

The wild card games are just trouble all around. They need to be avoided. Imagine dropping two of them in a row like the Pirates did in 2014 and 2015.

 

1. How many times was the home team favored?

2. Our pitching is not really that top heavy (yet). It wouldn't affect us as much as other teams.

3. Good point.... yet I'd rather play them than Washington or Chicago.

Imagine getting in and winning it all.... that's happened too.

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trwi7 Nashville Sounds

trwi7

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2. Our pitching is not really that top heavy (yet). It wouldn't affect us as much as other teams.

 

What? Our pitching is incredibly top heavy. We would be throwing Nelson or Anderson in the wild card game, whichever one doesn't pitch in the wild card game in game 1 of the NLDS against Kershaw if we win and then going with either Guerra, Davies, Garza or Woodruff for game 2, back to the wild card starter for game 3, Nelson or Anderson for game 4 and then back to Guerra, Davies, Garza or Woodruff for game 5.

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rickh150 Carolina Mudcats

rickh150

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2. Our pitching is not really that top heavy (yet). It wouldn't affect us as much as other teams.

 

What? Our pitching is incredibly top heavy. We would be throwing Nelson or Anderson in the wild card game, whichever one doesn't pitch in the wild card game in game 1 of the NLDS against Kershaw if we win and then going with either Guerra, Davies, Garza or Woodruff for game 2, back to the wild card starter for game 3, Nelson or Anderson for game 4 and then back to Guerra, Davies, Garza or Woodruff for game 5.

 

I agree with your starters ( as now) and when they would pitch...... yet I think we add a starter at some point this year- he is in the mix somehow. I think Hader starts come August. Plus, Hader and Woodruff might be better than Nelson and Anderson if given the opportunity.

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trwi7 Nashville Sounds

trwi7

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I think Hader starting this year is a disaster waiting to happen.

 

Just this year or next year too?

 

Honestly not sure he ever gets the control to get guys out multiple times through the order and the arm angle to lefties will be mitigated by teams stacking their lineups with righties.

 

I said in the transactions forum that I'd be willing to include him in a deal. I haven't really seen anything that makes me think anything other than reliever.

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clancyphile Carolina Mudcats

clancyphile

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I think this season, the Brewers need to play it out - don't mortgage the farm for pitching.

 

This is the season to find out who is in the core, who is solid, and who to try to deal. If we end up in the post-season, great. If not, well, we got to season the young players early for the 2018-2020 runs.

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Ennder Carolina Mudcats

Ennder

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Now we're only 1 game up in the loss column over the Cubs. I think it's time we start facing the ugly truth.

 

 

Not really sure you had to post basically this same exact post in every active thread.

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mlloyd10 First Round Pick

mlloyd10

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I think Hader starting this year is a disaster waiting to happen.

 

Just this year or next year too?

 

Honestly not sure he ever gets the control to get guys out multiple times through the order and the arm angle to lefties will be mitigated by teams stacking their lineups with righties.

 

I said in the transactions forum that I'd be willing to include him in a deal. I haven't really seen anything that makes me think anything other than reliever.

 

Wonder if they will try the Andrew Miller Route

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newrivervalley College Ball

newrivervalley

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Think Cubs are problem. Shaw over Brandt, Arcia over Russell, Sogard over Baez (Baez over Villar), Rizzo by a razor over Thames and Aguilar. Outfield is a wash as Braun and Broxton are negative, while Hayward and Scwarber are negative. Comes down to pitching and Cubs better now.
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