Brewers Core?

[sveumrules]

Another fangraphs article pushing the idea that Jimmy Nelson is an "ace" with a number of interesting quotes from Nelson...

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/ace-and-kinesiologist-jimmy-nelson/

[danzig6767]

In my mind "Core" guys are those you are thinking could likely retire with the team.

 

That's a tough bar to use these days, pretty rare for anyone to stay with the same team their entire career. I think you can be a core part of the next successful run without having to retire as a Brewer.

 

Nelson, Shaw, Santana are no different than any other player on the roster. If you can get good value in a trade, you do it. If not, they will all be relatively cheap for a while so not a lot to lose by hanging on to them.

Yea, that's the great thing about those three.

 

Santana i think is a legit really good hitter. He has a great eye at the plate. Walks at a good rate and gets himself in good hitter counts. That's huge. Besides that, he hits to all fields and thus can't be shifted heavily.

 

Shaw has such a pretty swing and kinda reminds me of former Brewer Dave Nilsson at the plate, but with more power. He's likely not a .900 plus OPS hitter every year, but it wouldn't surprise me at all if he was in the .825-.925 OPS range in the next 3-4 years and his defense is much better than i expected. That would be a valuable player for any team, especially given he'll be really cheap for years.

 

As for Nelson, it's not as if he has Zack Davies stuff and is just fluking his way to a good year. He throws hard and has good offspeed pitches, command and mainly walks have been his downfall. If there is something to the fangraphs articles about tweaks to his mechanics bearing fruit, Jimmy wouldn't exactly be the first pitcher with good stuff, but command issues to finally hit his stride 3-4 years into his big league career. Robbie Ray with Arizona for example as a comparison.

[Humans Need Water]

What's the reasoning behind your take

 

For starters, I agree with MrTPlush's post above. You shouldn't be counting on unproven minor leaguers as your franchises core unless maybe they are a Top 20 prospect in all of baseball, and even then I'd pause.

 

I do agree that Arica could be considered a core player because he's finally doing it at MLB level and is controlled for quite a while. I also think that Lewis Brinson has a more than 50% chance to become a core player also.

 

However, the way I see it:

 

SS Orlando Arcia

Best Case comp: Francisco Lindor

Likely comp: Alcides Escobar

Worst Case comp: Jose Iglesias

 

2B Keston Huira

Best Case comp: Ian Kinsler

Likely comp: Kolten Wong

Worst Case comp: Doesn't make it in the majors/Scooter Gennett

 

LHP Josh Hader

Best Case comp: Chris Sale

Likely comp: Drew Symly

Worst Case comp: Doesn't make it in the majors as a starter/bullpen LHP

 

RHP Corbin Burnes

Best Case comp: Michael Wacha

Likely comp: Jered Eickhoff

Worst Case comp: Doesn't make it in the majors/Jed Bradley

 

RHP Brandon Woodruff

Best Case comp: Dan Straily

Likely comp: Collin McHugh

Worst Case comp: Doesn't make it in the majors/Cody Scarpetta

 

 

We all have high hopes for these minor leaguers and I hope at least one reaches their talent ceiling (best case comp) at the Major League level as a Brewer.

 

However, I simply would not consider Alcides Escobar, Kolten Wong, Drew Symly, Jered Eickhoff, and Colin McHugh as core players on their teams, I guess.

 

Valuable league average regulars and mid-rotation starters, yes.

 

Core players? not yet, at least.

I appreciate the response and effort you put in but I asked for your reasoning. Not player comps. Everybody is capable of throwing out player comps, which shields them from articulating what they see/know/think about a player's skill set on both sides of the ball as well as other variables (work ethic, attitude, cultural fit, etc)

 

For example, I'll use your likely comparison of Arcia vs Escobar but mainly focus on Arcia since he's on our team....

Arcia is head and shoulders better than Escobar. Their defense is equal enough where it'll be splitting hairs once Arcia gains experience. Offensively, in 6 of Escobar's 8 full seasons he's had a BA above 261 TWICE, an OBP above 293 TWICE, an OPS above 642 TWICE, more than 4HR in a season TWICE and his SB total has dropped off hard since 2014. Like Arcia, he's a guy who puts the ball in play so doesn't BB or K much. Arcia is 8yrs younger and already putting up what would be the best season in Escobar's career. His approach at the plate is far better than Escobar. His ability to consistently hit middle/oppo is insanely polished, especially given his age, and that is a tremendous asset for him moving toward becoming a consistent all-around hitter as he continues to physically and mentally mature. As a rookie, he's already made mechanical adjustments with his timing mechanism that allowed him to stay back more consistently and keep his bat in the zone longer barreling up the ball. He's no slouch at stealing bases and will swipe 20+ but he most likely won't be as good as Escobar in that area, however, he will hit 4x as many HR as Escobar typically hits. Nothing but positives regarding his work ethic, being a great teammate and enjoying playing the game. Arcia was a blue chip prospect at the ultimate premium defensive position and thus far in his first full season he's showing everyone why and how good he can grow to become. This is what a core player looks like (and not sure how you can say Escobar hasn't been a core player when he's been KC's starting SS for 8yrs straight including back to back WS appearances and a ring). Once Arcia taps into consistency on the offensive side he'll be a multi-time AS.

 

Regarding the highlighted comment, none of those guys are on our team and no 2 players are exactly the same. It doesn't matter if you consider them core players on their respective teams. Put them on another team and they might be - every team is built differently. They're not the subject matter, our players are and you were asked to explain why and you couldn't so you resorted to player comps.

 

Also, your original post stated you said Arcia/Hiura were average middle infielders and Hader/Woodruff/Burnes were back-end starters....now you're saying they're mid-rotation? Which is it....

[KeithStone53151]

What's the reasoning behind your take

 

For starters, I agree with MrTPlush's post above. You shouldn't be counting on unproven minor leaguers as your franchises core unless maybe they are a Top 20 prospect in all of baseball, and even then I'd pause.

 

I do agree that Arica could be considered a core player because he's finally doing it at MLB level and is controlled for quite a while. I also think that Lewis Brinson has a more than 50% chance to become a core player also.

 

However, the way I see it:

 

SS Orlando Arcia

Best Case comp: Francisco Lindor

Likely comp: Alcides Escobar

Worst Case comp: Jose Iglesias

 

2B Keston Huira

Best Case comp: Ian Kinsler

Likely comp: Kolten Wong

Worst Case comp: Doesn't make it in the majors/Scooter Gennett

 

LHP Josh Hader

Best Case comp: Chris Sale

Likely comp: Drew Symly

Worst Case comp: Doesn't make it in the majors as a starter/bullpen LHP

 

RHP Corbin Burnes

Best Case comp: Michael Wacha

Likely comp: Jered Eickhoff

Worst Case comp: Doesn't make it in the majors/Jed Bradley

 

RHP Brandon Woodruff

Best Case comp: Dan Straily

Likely comp: Collin McHugh

Worst Case comp: Doesn't make it in the majors/Cody Scarpetta

 

 

We all have high hopes for these minor leaguers and I hope at least one reaches their talent ceiling (best case comp) at the Major League level as a Brewer.

 

However, I simply would not consider Alcides Escobar, Kolten Wong, Drew Symly, Jered Eickhoff, and Colin McHugh as core players on their teams, I guess.

 

Valuable league average regulars and mid-rotation starters, yes.

 

Core players? not yet, at least.

I appreciate the response and effort you put in but I asked for your reasoning. Not player comps. Everybody is capable of throwing out player comps, which shields them from articulating what they see/know/think about a player's skill set on both sides of the ball as well as other variables (work ethic, attitude, cultural fit, etc)

 

For example, I'll use your likely comparison of Arcia vs Escobar but mainly focus on Arcia since he's on our team....

Arcia is head and shoulders better than Escobar. Their defense is equal enough where it'll be splitting hairs once Arcia gains experience. Offensively, in 6 of Escobar's 8 full seasons he's had a BA above 261 TWICE, an OBP above 293 TWICE, an OPS above 642 TWICE, more than 4HR in a season TWICE and his SB total has dropped off hard since 2014. Like Arcia, he's a guy who puts the ball in play so doesn't BB or K much. Arcia is 8yrs younger and already putting up what would be the best season in Escobar's career. His approach at the plate is far better than Escobar. His ability to consistently hit middle/oppo is insanely polished, especially given his age, and that is a tremendous asset for him moving toward becoming a consistent all-around hitter as he continues to physically and mentally mature. As a rookie, he's already made mechanical adjustments with his timing mechanism that allowed him to stay back more consistently and keep his bat in the zone longer barreling up the ball. He's no slouch at stealing bases and will swipe 20+ but he most likely won't be as good as Escobar in that area, however, he will hit 4x as many HR as Escobar typically hits. Nothing but positives regarding his work ethic, being a great teammate and enjoying playing the game. Arcia was a blue chip prospect at the ultimate premium defensive position and thus far in his first full season he's showing everyone why and how good he can grow to become. This is what a core player looks like (and not sure how you can say Escobar hasn't been a core player when he's been KC's starting SS for 8yrs straight including back to back WS appearances and a ring). Once Arcia taps into consistency on the offensive side he'll be a multi-time AS.

 

Regarding the highlighted comment, none of those guys are on our team and no 2 players are exactly the same. It doesn't matter if you consider them core players on their respective teams. Put them on another team and they might be - every team is built differently. They're not the subject matter, our players are and you were asked to explain why and you couldn't so you resorted to player comps.

 

Also, your original post stated you said Arcia/Hiura were average middle infielders and Hader/Woodruff/Burnes were back-end starters....now you're saying they're mid-rotation? Which is it....

 

It should be highlighted further their minor league histories in comparing Arcia to Escobar. Arcia was 1-2 years younger than Escobar at every level. Escobar was hitting 2-3 hr most years in the minors while Arcia has been between 4 and 8 with a 19-21 year old wiry/undeveloped body. It was impossible to envision Escobar being a consistent double digit hr guy coming up, while Arcia has a good chance to crack 20 a few times in his career. It would be reasonable to expect similar defense, similar avg/obp(i think arcia will be slightly better), arcia being slightly worse on the bases but having significantly more power than escobar. And that's not even talking about the upside of Arcia adding some good weight and turning into a consistent 20 hr guy. He's on pace to hit 15-17 this season at age 22/23. And it won't just be hr, he'll hit many more xbh than escobar.

[Boomer5]

Core guys:

 

Arcia: as close to a no brainer as this exercise can allow. Great pedigree, great D, been a top of the line up caliber player for two months.

 

Santana: next in line. Hits to all fields, takes walks, power. Just a solid hitter across the board

 

Nelson: my number 3 and a big step down from the first two. He has an excellent pedigree. Been an ace everywhere he has been. However prior to this year at the MLB level he was Suppan. I love his curveball and he wouldn't be the first to put it together a little later in his career.

 

My next group would be Shaw, Knebel, Brinson, and Hiura.

[CheezWizHed]

RHP Corbin Burnes

Best Case comp: Michael Wacha

Likely comp: Jered Eickhoff

Worst Case comp: Doesn't make it in the majors/Jed Bradley

 

Burnes has already exceeded Bradley.

[Jenkins5]

RHP Corbin Burnes

Best Case comp: Michael Wacha

Likely comp: Jered Eickhoff

Worst Case comp: Doesn't make it in the majors/Jed Bradley

 

Burnes has already exceeded Bradley.

 

I'll add Woodruff has far surpassed Scarpetta's already as well.

 

I still feel Corbin Burns likely comp will be Chase Anderson. They pitch a lot alike with similar velocity, bulldog approach, craft. Chase & Corbin are no Aces & will have some bad runs when command drops but usually fairly consistent & can carve teams up when they have everything working.

 

Only thing Arcia has in common with Escobar is they came up Brewers, don't walk much & play stellar defense. Comps end there. Arcia is far more advanced with the bat with more power. Also Arcia is extremely confident fiery competitor. You can see it when he plays & you hear it from everyone who has coached him. Escobar never seem to have that edge and swag about him. I think Arcia really believes he will win many gold gloves, play in ton of All-Star games, and will be Hall of Famer. Not in an arrogent way but he just has that confidence about him. It's same attitude & swag that Braun & Fielder have. He will be a leader on this team for years to come.

[Greenleaf1]

RHP Corbin Burnes

Best Case comp: Michael Wacha

Likely comp: Jered Eickhoff

Worst Case comp: Doesn't make it in the majors/Jed Bradley

 

Burnes has already exceeded Bradley.

 

I'll add Woodruff has far surpassed Scarpetta's already as well.

 

I still feel Corbin Burns likely comp will be Chase Anderson. They pitch a lot alike with similar velocity, bulldog approach, craft. Chase & Corbin are no Aces & will have some bad runs when command drops but usually fairly consistent & can carve teams up when they have everything working.

 

Only thing Arcia has in common with Escobar is they came up Brewers, don't walk much & play stellar defense. Comps end there. Arcia is far more advanced with the bat with more power. Also Arcia is extremely confident fiery competitor. You can see it when he plays & you hear it from everyone who has coached him. Escobar never seem to have that edge and swag about him. I think Arcia really believes he will win many gold gloves, play in ton of All-Star games, and will be Hall of Famer. Not in an arrogent way but he just has that confidence about him. It's same attitude & swag that Braun & Fielder have. He will be a leader on this team for years to come.

 

I don't think Anderson is a bad comp for Burnes based on what I've heard, but whereas Anderson seems to have made the adjustments to up his velocity on all his pitches this year, Burnes seems to be doing that already. Will be interesting to see what Burnes can do when he gets called up next year.

[Pugger]

Kiura, Burnes, Woodruff, Hader, Arcia. That is the real Brewers core

 

Yes, some of our core players are still in the minors.

[Pugger]

I'd consider anyone who plays above average or better as a core player. They also have to have 4+ years of control(3.5 right now) and typically young. Because these players are usually cheap and good luck finding someone to outplay them. I personally would label someone as part of the core if they aren't in the MLB

 

 

Likely ones:

Arcia

Santana

Knebel

Shaw

 

Possible:

Thames

Broxton

Nelson

 

 

Don't rule them out:

Villar

Anderson

 

Because he has to be:

Braun

 

You question that Anderson is a core player for this franchise?

[MrTPlush]

I'd consider anyone who plays above average or better as a core player. They also have to have 4+ years of control(3.5 right now) and typically young. Because these players are usually cheap and good luck finding someone to outplay them. I personally would label someone as part of the core if they aren't in the MLB

 

 

Likely ones:

Arcia

Santana

Knebel

Shaw

 

Possible:

Thames

Broxton

Nelson

 

 

Don't rule them out:

Villar

Anderson

 

Because he has to be:

Braun

 

You question that Anderson is a core player for this franchise?

 

At this point in time, yes. You could probably put him in the possible category with Nelson. He had the ace like 2nd half last year so that is a full year of pretty elite results. I am a little more confident in Jimmy Nelson than Chase Anderson. In my opinion a starter has to be a #1 or #2 type to be a core player. Don't know I would label a mid rotation guy as a core guy.

 

Then again I put Keon Broxton as possible and that is brutally generous. Must have been chasing my child around putting that together.

[adambr2]

I've been a big Broxton fan but I've been really disappointed by what I've seen this year.

 

I still think some people are a little too hard on him -- his overall OPS is pretty much fine for a CF, and he's probably a 20 HR/20SB player. He's got tools. But he hasn't built on that 2nd half last year the way I hoped he would, and he just hasn't been able to do anything to fix his big issue, the strikeouts .

 

He's got value. But given the guys he's blocking, he's probably best served as off-season trade bait.

 

At this point I'd say Shaw, Santana and Arcia are our only true core guys. Braun is a part time player who will be lucky to crack 1.5 WAR this year. Sorry, to me, he doesn't qualify.

[Ennder]

There is almost no way Anderson is a core player imo. Unlike Nelson his peripherals don't really support the strong ERA this year and he turns 30 next season. I can see the case for Nelson at least.

[Austin Tatious]

This is a fun discussion. The complication is that baseball lends itself to lots of trends, where player could get hot or cold, and deciphering these trends. There is so much mental and mechanical about the skills in baseball that you have to figure out what player A's current status is now in the context of the larger picture.

 

Jimmy Nelson was a low top 100 prospect and he obviously has an outstanding frame and solid, albeit not elite, arm. At the start of 2016, he was coming along nicely but then the last 2/3 of the season he fell apart. But, he's a guy who's a worker and right now his curveball is coming in with snap and bite with control. Has he really turned the corner for good? I think you take that position now and consider him a nice 2/3 starter.

 

Arcia is one of my favorite players. The Escobar comparison is lazy, uninspired, and unwarranted. Even when he was hitting .220 you saw raw potential at the plate. I was saying it when he was hitting .220, that he's got a nice, quick stroke and as he gets older and stronger he will hit the gaps more. He's actually been showing it already as his OPS has come up quite a bit. Sure, he will take a step back because baseball is a game of adjustments but he's still young and will settle in nicely. I wouldn't anoint him Lindor, but he's a key cornerstone player IMO. There's a reason why he was a top ten prospect in all of baseball. Nobody, including Lindor, has a bigger arm at shortstop. He can absolutely gun you down.

 

Santana has been hitting at a very high level. Like Arcia, I wouldn't be shocked if he slips due to pitchers adjusting to him. He's got that low key demeanor which I find rather odd and I don't know that he hustles like Pete Rose. But, I think the criticism of his D is overblown. He's got a big arm for right and it's not like he's costing us games out there. He's got good patience at the plate, and I'm curious if he can actually still improve. He takes a lot of pitches and there may be some room for improvement with his eye. You compare Santana to the over hyped Jorge Soler, and Santana is killing it.

 

Villar is the other side of the coin. He's fallen off the cliff the last month of '16 and in '17. I wouldn't put him in the core because I think somebody amongst Diaz, Hiura or Dubon will be our 2b of the future. But, he hit very well for five months in 2016 and has been working through a funk. I'm not giving up on him.

 

Zach Davies and Junior Guerra. Also not in the core, but I see a lot of folks down on them. Like Villar, I'm not panicking. Guerra has had a couple of more unpredictable, unexpected injuries. He hasn't been able to get himself in a flow this year. He has flashed some good pitching for innings at a time but needs to get himself on track with more reps. Davies is all about keeping the hitter off balance and having pinpoint control. I'm not going to be surprised if he ends up with an ERA closer to 4 than to 5.

 

Chase Anderson and Shaw. I couldn't be happier with Shaw. Shaw is only 27 and doing at the MLB level what we hope a kid like Erceg could someday be. Other than a bad stretch the second half of '16, he's been great. He's a premium player at a tough position. Is he as great as he's shown? Not sure but I don't think he falls off a cliff either. Anderson has had an uptick in velocity. He knows how to pitch. I don't know thst he's in the long term core because I don't know how long the velo stays this high. He may be peaking. Either way, both of these guys are testaments to Stearns' vision in player acquisitions.