Quintana to The Cubs for a lot

[zzzmanwitz]

Sucks that this move hurts the Brewers for a long period of time.

 

Maybe. Quintana needs to get back to how he was pitching the previous two years for it to hurt the Brewers too badly.

[BuckyBrewer61]

Maybe it's the years of Suppan, Wolf, Lohse, and Garza sticking in my mind...but Quintana is a 28 year-old pitcher (will be 31 by the end of his contract), with a rising FIP each of the past 3 years, and currently having the worst year of his career since his rookie season. This trade makes sense for the Cubs and it could certainly work out well for them as I do think Quintana has more left in the tank, but to me there's a ceiling to the potential payoff with a real chance Quintana is never again the pitcher he once was.

 

As a Brewers fan I'm cautiously optimistic about this, because had we made this trade and given up a similar package I'd be very nervous for an outcome similar to those guys mentioned above.

[sveumrules]

Corey Ray is nowhere near the prospect that Jimenez is. Eloy was just ranked number 5 by BA in their midseason update, Corey did not make the list. Jimenez is sporting a 131 wRC+ in high A ball at age 20, Ray is sporting an 88 wRC+ in high A ball at age 22.

 

Yeah, I think JohnBriggs12 mentioned that Ray is not as good as Jimenez. Regardless of where Jimenez is ranked on the prospect list, not sure how you can equate him to AAA/MLB players like Hader and Brinson. Seems like many are completely just disregarding that Quintana has started 169 MLB games and is controllable through 2020.

 

Right. Ray is not as good as Jimenez, in either performance or reputation, which is why leading off a supposedly comparable offer with Ray in Eloy's place doesn't make any sense.

 

I think Quintana is a very solid MLB pitcher, even though his peripherals and results have been trending down for multiple seasons at this point. But would I have given up Brinson (#16 on BA's midseason list vs. #5 for Eloy) and one of Woodruff/Hader/Ortiz (#s 43/61/67 on BA's midseason list vs #83 for Cease) plus filler, which is an actual comparable deal to land him? No. Would I have done Briggs deal for Quintana? Absolutely. Because it is much less than the Cubs surrendered.

[brewerfan82]

It almost cost the Cubs the same for just 2 months of Chapman last July.

I'd argue that's more of a statement on how ridiculous the reliever trade market has been. The Quintana deal seems fair. In addition to getting a top 10 prospect in all of baseball, they got a very good starting pitching prospect that hits triple digits on the radar. In theory, a good trade should swap services now for services later. The pitcher alone has the potential to do that, throw in one of the best hitting prospects in all of baseball and you've got 3.5 years of Quintana for a decent shot of 12 years of Jimenez and Cease. Throw in the two high A players (a shortstop hitting .305 this year, and a corner infielder with 31 homers over the past year and a half) and this looks like a good haul for a good player.

 

The reliever deals are just on another planet right now. I don't think you can compare anything reasonable to those.

[danzig6767]

There are to many variables to deem at this point whether it's a good or bad trade for the Cubs.

 

1. Both top prospects the Cubs gave up are so young.

 

2. Quintana is controlled for 3.5 seasons. With the talent on their big league roster, if Quintana helps them significantly win another title over those seasons, it's a good trade for them regardless if those prospects pan out for the White Sox.

 

It's that team control for 3.5 seasons which is the key. Quintana could be up and down over those years, but if say he's really good in two of those seasons and they reach the World Series, they can live with him being mediocre in the other years.

[gregmag]

It is what it is. This is what the Cubs can do; we all knew this. They can afford to offload their top prospects because they can spend their way out of their problems. Obviously that approach has its pitfalls, but as others have said, the pit is a ways off for the Cubs. They're going to be good for a while. This move cost the Cubs, and I think people are right to say that we did well to force their hand, but it still makes sense from their perspective.

 

The Brewers' plan has to be the same as it's always been: Do our thing our way. That means talent acquisition and development up and down the organization. It doesn't foreclose spending prospects for MLB talent at the right moments, but I'd say it sure forecloses trying to match what the Cubs did here for what they got.

 

If we're going to beat them, it will take our continuing to unearth hidden gems and develop our best prospects into MLB contributors. Let's see what happens.

[3and2Fastball]

the knowledgeable Cubs fans I know are really upset about this trade, they see Eloy Jiménez as another Kris Bryant type talent, and Dylan Cease throws 100 mph, and like a poof of smoke they are both gone....

[danzig6767]

the knowledgeable Cubs fans I know are really upset about this trade, they see Eloy Jiménez as another Kris Bryant type talent, and Dylan Cease throws 100 mph, and like a poof of smoke they are both gone....

The Cubs needed a starter for not just this year, but going forward and the starting pitcher class for free agency this offseason looks weak at best.

 

If the Cubs end up not wanting to pay Arrieta what he asks for, that's another hole in their rotation next year and beyond while they have a locked in position player roster hoping to win titles, not just make the playoffs.

[Ennder]

Yeah this totally makes sense for the Cubs. That doesn't mean it isn't a deal that will hurt them long term though. I just look at it with Brewer colored glasses on.

 

Next year we start to really break in the prospects, the year after they get stretched out to playing a full season, we hope to be competitive in 2020.

 

The Cubs as a team looks like it will start to fall apart starting in 2021 and full bore by 2022. They have money to fill in some blanks but that just gets out of hand fast. I think sometime in the competitive window for our current top prospects the Cubs will have fallen apart because they traded away all of their high end prospects in the past 2 seasons. Sure maybe they can replenish things that fast but there is a decent chance they don't too. They won't crash and burn or anything but by 2022 I don't think we will be thinking of them as a team with special talent anymore. What was scary in the middle of the season last year is they looked completely dominant and still had like 6 or 7 top prospects. The Cubs long term outlook is a lot weaker today than it was a year ago and that is a good thing for us.

[leitermab07]

So the Cubs have officially depleted their minor league system and no longer have any top 100 prospects. All for a guy they rented for a month (Chapman) and for a pitcher who is no more than their #3 on a struggling pitching staff. Talk about desperate. I would have been irate if we gave up Brinson and another top player for Quintana. He is over rated IMO. Please let me know how getting a #3 pitcher helps out their struggling offense and terrible defense. If we are giving up top prospects like this, it better be an Archer/Stroman type.

 

Looking at the Cubs, knowing they had Eloy Jimenez yet to come up made me upset and jealous. This will be a trade they will regret in a year or two. This guy will be a 40+ hr masher with a great BA and OPS. Thank you Theo for getting desperate. Eloy was destroying field light bulbs in the homer run derby and during games. some serious power.

[fondybrewfan]

I wouldn't bring up Chapman. They traded away guys to get Chapman who helped them win their first championship in over 100 years. That trade was worth it 100 times over. That's how I would view it as a fan.

 

Quintana trade is different but lets see how the rest of the season and his contract play out.

[owbc]

So the Cubs have officially depleted their minor league system and no longer have any top 100 prospects. All for a guy they rented for a month (Chapman) and for a pitcher who is no more than their #3 on a struggling pitching staff. Talk about desperate. I would have been irate if we gave up Brinson and another top player for Quintana. He is over rated IMO. Please let me know how getting a #3 pitcher helps out their struggling offense and terrible defense.

 

When you have a roster full of under-performing players, some of the motivation has to be just to give them a spark to show that management is still fully invested in winning in 2017. The timing is a plus also, the Cubs' narrative going into the second half has completely changed now.

 

We'll know in a month if the Cubs' struggles run deeper than a 3-month slump. I suspect they will continue to have bigger issues, but if the Brewers collapse we can at least know that our success forced the Cubs to trade away their top prospects and potentially shorten their competitive window.

[monty57]

I was at the Myrtle Beach Pelicans game last night and wondered why Jimenez was on the "temporarily inactive" list. I guess now I know why :-)

 

This certainly hurts the Brewers' chance of holding off the Cubs this year, but we'll just have to see how things play out.

 

We still have way more OF than we need. Maybe we can find a good upgrade using some of our non-Brinson OF prospects.

[Boomer5]

The Cubs rotation problems are going to end their hope of a dyanasty, so getting a quality young lefty with 3 1/2 more years was a necessity.

[splitterpfj]

I would have loved to see Quintana in Milwaukee, and I'm glad the Brewers pursued it - I also think it's ok that the Brewers were runners-up in this contest.

 

I want a deal for pitching help - right now - but more than that, I want a smart deal for pitching help.

 

I trust David Stearns to find one.

[LouisEly]

Jimenez is a better prospect than Brinson. Jjgott's Brinson/Hader/Phillips guess a few posts above is closer than Brinson/Ortiz/fliers, IMO.

Adam McCalvy said in a tweet the equivalent would likely be Brinson, Ortiz, and two of Coulter/Taylor/Neuhaus.

 

Yes Jimenez is highly rated, but you have to discount the fact that he is in A-ball. Brinson is doing it at AAA. Delmon Young was top-3 prospect four years in a row... and has a career 2.5 bWAR. A lot can happen between A-ball and the majors. Cease pre-2017 barely made top-100 lists; career BB rate of 5.0, this year 4.5.

 

Here's two players in high-A who are 20 year old outfielders (26 days apart in age), both with about 200 career minor league games played:

 

Player A: .351 OBP, .490 SLG, .841 OPS, 10.3% BB rate, 20% K rate, 75% of time in LF, 25% in RF, 0% in CF, 5 career OF assists, 6 career errors

Player B: .386 OBP, .400 SLG, .786 OPS, 19.2% BB rate, 26% K rate, 11% of time in LF, 23% in RF, 66% in CF, 17 career OF assists, 6 career errors

 

One of these is Eloy Jimenez, the other is Trent Clark. I'm supposed to believe that Eloy Jimenez is a top-5 overall prospect and Trent Clark is just barely off the top 100 prospect list? Ok...

[adambr2]

Jimenez is a better prospect than Brinson. Jjgott's Brinson/Hader/Phillips guess a few posts above is closer than Brinson/Ortiz/fliers, IMO.

Adam McCalvy said in a tweet the equivalent would likely be Brinson, Ortiz, and two of Coulter/Taylor/Neuhaus.

 

Yes Jimenez is highly rated, but you have to discount the fact that he is in A-ball. Brinson is doing it at AAA. Delmon Young was top-3 prospect four years in a row... and has a career 2.5 bWAR. A lot can happen between A-ball and the majors. Cease pre-2017 barely made top-100 lists; career BB rate of 5.0, this year 4.5.

 

Here's two players in high-A who are 20 year old outfielders (26 days apart in age), both with about 200 career minor league games played:

 

Player A: .351 OBP, .490 SLG, .841 OPS, 10.3% BB rate, 20% K rate, 75% of time in LF, 25% in RF, 0% in CF, 5 career OF assists, 6 career errors

Player B: .386 OBP, .400 SLG, .786 OPS, 19.2% BB rate, 26% K rate, 11% of time in LF, 23% in RF, 66% in CF, 17 career assists, 6 career errors

 

One of these is Eloy Jimenez, the other is Trent Clark. I'm supposed to believe that Eloy Jimenez is a top-5 overall prospect and Trent Clark is just barely off the top 100 prospect list? Ok...

 

I'd be kind of disappointed if we didn't do that deal if we could have. I love Brinson but at his position with our OF depth he's quite expendable.

 

Ortiz is nice but he's probably the 4th best pitching prospect on the team now, at best.

 

Coulter, Taylor, and Neuhaus are throw -ins.

[stoutdude04]

I think this is a solid deal for the Cubs. Quintana has another 3 years of control, so that is one piece they wont have to worry about in the upcoming years. It's entirely possible that one of the prospects doesn't even make it . Cease throws hard but just had surgery, so who knows what will happen there. Also, hasn't Eloy struggled putting the ball in play at high A? Or maybe I'm misremembering.

[JosephC]

I slightly disagree with McCalvy only because I think Jimenez is one step above Brinson.

 

http://www.baseballamerica.com/minors/2017-midseason-top-100-prospects-july-7/

 

#5 = Jimenez

#16 = Brinson

 

So what is the difference in the surplus value "guess-timation?"

 

http://www.thepointofpittsburgh.com/mlb-prospect-surplus-values-2016-updated-edition/

 

Take the values in those tables and the next "guess-timation" is multiply them by 1.07 to adjust for 2017 versus 2016 inflation.

 

Jimenez = 78.545 million

Brinson = 66.34 million

 

In my opinion the difference between those two players is a guy just barely out of the top 100. There are 3 Brewer prospects I'd put in that group right now: Brett Phillips, Keston Hiura, Corey Ray (I still have Isan Diaz at the tail end of the top 100).

 

Cease is a back end of the top 100 pitcher so his surplus value is 16.692 million. Rose and Flete are "fringe prospects" IMO, and I agree 100% with McCalvy that those guys are basically the equivalent of a Clint Coulter. Surplus value for each of those would 2.14 million

 

78.545 + 16.692 + 2.14 + 2.14 = 99.517 million of surplus value. This off-season I had put Quintana as having about 110 million of surplus value and with the start to this year plus 0.5 less seasons of control I had put his current surplus value at about 95 million. So from a value standpoint I'd call this swap almost perfectly equal.

 

Back to McCalvy, I'd have Brinson (66.34 million), Ortiz (17.655 million) and two fringe prospects (2.14 + 2.14) = 88.275 million. I have Ray/Hiura (PTBNL)/Phillips each at 12.84 million so I think it would have taken the inclusion of one of those three to equal what the Cubs gave up.

[paul253]

If the White Sox were insisting on Brinson then I'm glad we didn't make the deal. He just has too much upside to trade and is pretty much MLB ready. I do think a deal of Hader Ray Clark and another throw in would have been a better return for the Sox and I think the Brewers could have afforded to make that move. Oh well.

[Fear The Chorizo]

The Cubs won the world series last year...that's the whole goal of this baseball thing, and their fan base rightfully shouldn't give two craps about them emptying their farm system to do it. Quality mlb pitching depth looks like something they are going to need to keep throwing money and prospects at, however. Brewers and the rest of the NL need to hope some of those pitching moves flame out on them and they will become baseball's version of the 85 Bears...a ton of talent, a city that loves them, 1 title and not much else.

 

For their situation, you make this trade to give your current mlb roster the best chance to make a run...who cares in their market if it means the minor leagues are depleted? Their entire position player roster is either still pre arbitration and talented, or veterans locked into untradeable contracts. They'll have time to rebuild their farm system while their mlb team keeps winning.

[Ennder]

The Cubs won the world series last year...that's the whole goal of this baseball thing, and their fan base rightfully shouldn't give two craps about them emptying their farm system to do it. Quality mlb pitching depth looks like something they are going to need to keep throwing money and prospects at, however. Brewers and the rest of the NL need to hope some of those pitching moves flame out on them and they will become baseball's version of the 85 Bears...a ton of talent, a city that loves them, 1 title and not much else.

 

For their situation, you make this trade to give your current mlb roster the best chance to make a run...who cares in their market if it means the minor leagues are depleted? Their entire position player roster is either still pre arbitration and talented, or veterans locked into untradeable contracts. They'll have time to rebuild their farm system while their mlb team keeps winning.

 

That is fair but it still doesn't change the fact that the Cubs making the moves they have over the past full season of baseball are good for the Brewers future. Yeah they won the world series so it was all worth it for them, if they win it again this year it was again all worth it for them. That doesn't change the fact that they have crippled themselves 4 years from now at this point which is going to help the next really good Brewers team compete during their next competitive window. Both of these things can be true at the same time.

[Fear The Chorizo]

I agree 100% Ennder, was more or less trying to make the point that the cubs aren't looking at their minor league system the same way the Brewers need to as a small market team that can't buy it's way out of problems.

 

Also, as of 2020 the cubs will control tv rights for their games...that essentially will make them able to print money for team payroll, right around when many of their young players will be due big paydays. It's an uneven playing field, their window is much easier for them to keep open regardless of what they have coming up through the minors.

[danzig6767]

The Cubs won the world series last year...that's the whole goal of this baseball thing, and their fan base rightfully shouldn't give two craps about them emptying their farm system to do it. Quality mlb pitching depth looks like something they are going to need to keep throwing money and prospects at, however. Brewers and the rest of the NL need to hope some of those pitching moves flame out on them and they will become baseball's version of the 85 Bears...a ton of talent, a city that loves them, 1 title and not much else.

 

For their situation, you make this trade to give your current mlb roster the best chance to make a run...who cares in their market if it means the minor leagues are depleted? Their entire position player roster is either still pre arbitration and talented, or veterans locked into untradeable contracts. They'll have time to rebuild their farm system while their mlb team keeps winning.

 

That is fair but it still doesn't change the fact that the Cubs making the moves they have over the past full season of baseball are good for the Brewers future. Yeah they won the world series so it was all worth it for them, if they win it again this year it was again all worth it for them. That doesn't change the fact that they have crippled themselves 4 years from now at this point which is going to help the next really good Brewers team compete during their next competitive window. Both of these things can be true at the same time.

I wouldn't be so certain in saying the Cubs have crippled themselves four years from now.

 

That is a long time and Theo is an upper tier GM. A wide variety of things can happen over those four years in how they draft, international signings, trades, free agency, etc. No question these trades will make it harder for Theo to have the Cubs still be really good 3-4-5 years from now, but he's not like some dumb GM's of past big market teams who signed a bunch of bad free agent contracts and left the organization in shambles. I'm not saying that he's infallible, but he is a bright guy so i wouldn't just go assuming that disaster is coming for the Cubs in the time frame you listed.

[Brewer Fever]

I love how for some individuals parting with Garrett Cooper was questionable but another team parting with it's top 2 prospects was a smart move and a clear win. Give me a break.