Busted Prospects

[Eye Black]

Baseball Prospectus published an article that analyzes the Top 50 Busted Prospects of the draft era.

 

In most cases it is a prospect that had initial success and was built up with a lot of hype, but failed to come close to those star expectations. Brewers representatives on the list include Nick Neugebauer, Matt LaPorta, and Mat Gamel. Do you agree that those are the biggest busts the Brewers have had based on success and expectations as a prospect? Who are your top 5 Brewers busted prospects?

 

The disclaimers listed in the article go as follows...

 

- The rankings of these players is mostly loose and entirely subjective, mostly because...

 

- The concept of what is a “bust” is also highly subjective. Each author set their own bar, based on their own expectations, and then tried to explain them. High draft choice? Top-rated prospect? Costly trade acquisition? Anything can draw a line for a player, of which they can then fall short.

 

- Finally, remember that the idea of a bust is not only subjective, but relative. The players mentioned here, those who weren’t quite enough, were still at some point among the most talented athletes known. Most of them tried hard and worked through pain and listened to terrible music on buses. We do this not to make light of these men, nor really to praise them, but to remember them, remember the happiness we decided they owed us.

[markedman5]

I'd add Mark Rogers

[pyrocyz]

Was Eric Arnett ever considered a prospect?

[A Swing and A Drive]

I think Eric Arnett seems painful because he was the pick right after Mike Trout, who the Brewers reportedly were set to select.

[jjgott]

Rogers would be my pick if only because when he finally came up he showed he could hang in the big leagues but just couldn't stay healthy

[AKCheesehead]

One that stands out for me is J.M. Gold. I remember there being a lot of hype and lofty expectations when he was drafted 13th overall in '98.

[Mass Haas]

I don't buy the busts by injury thinking.

 

Gamel smashed his leg on a railing -- the subsequent recovery efforts didn't work out. And Neugy on the list?

 

If they had eliminated the injury aspect and went strictly by performance vs. expectations, the list would be a much more impressive and interesting read.

[Roderick]

I don't buy the busts by injury thinking.

 

Gamel smashed his leg on a railing -- the subsequent recovery efforts didn't work out. And Neugy on the list?

 

If they had eliminated the injury aspect and went strictly by performance vs. expectations, the list would be a much more impressive and interesting read.

 

I agree. Injury shouldn't count as a "bust".

 

How high did Ben Hendrickson get on the ratings before it was figured out he was a AAAA pitcher?

[DHonks]

I remember hearing from baseball folks that they were surprised with Neugy's short return. One minor league inning, then released. Given the talent, they speculated there was something else going on, such as a lack of work ethic or desire to move on. For any other talented arm like that, he would have been allowed to return slowly and given more time.

[clancyphile]

I would not call Matt LaPorta a bust. He was the centerpiece of the CC Sabathia deal and that got the Brewers the 2008 Wild Card spot.

 

No, LaPorta's a success just on that alone.

[dacbrewers]

I think Eric Arnett seems painful because he was the pick right after Mike Trout, who the Brewers reportedly were set to select.

You hit a home run on that call. Yes, Arnett was a prospect and despite pitching bad, always got promoted before guys that deserved it. Hopefully he invested his bonus money.

[jerichoholicninja]

I remember hearing from baseball folks that they were surprised with Neugy's short return. One minor league inning, then released. Given the talent, they speculated there was something else going on, such as a lack of work ethic or desire to move on. For any other talented arm like that, he would have been allowed to return slowly and given more time.

 

Just looked at his BRef page, done at 23. Either he didn't want to play anymore or no one wanted to deal with him.

[DocLuna7]

Can we call Kodi Medeiros a bust yet?

[CheezWizHed]

Can we call Kodi Medeiros a bust yet?

 

No. You can be upset that he isn't lighting the world on fire, but let him play his career out before he gets labeled a bust.

[homer]

I don't buy the busts by injury thinking.

 

Gamel smashed his leg on a railing -- the subsequent recovery efforts didn't work out. And Neugy on the list?

 

If they had eliminated the injury aspect and went strictly by performance vs. expectations, the list would be a much more impressive and interesting read.

 

How high did Ben Hendrickson get on the ratings before it was figured out he was a AAAA pitcher?

 

Oh boy...you better hope his dad doesn't see that post.

[JohnBriggs12]

Antone Williamson (#4 overall pick in 94) might be number 1 bust for Brewers. Dave Krynzel was another. Then there was Mike Jones a year later. Gold was for sure. Lots more of them.

[RockCoCougars]

Bad list. How is Todd Van Poppel not on there but Ben McDonald is? He would be right at the top of my list.

[MadThinker88]

For his performances as a player, how about the now GM Billy Beane ???

[CheezWizHed]

This seems to be a list of media driven players (Danny Ainge?) that ended up busting and not necessarily prospect busts.

[markedman5]

Who was the guy drafted #1 overall twice and not ever make it to the majors? Was he on the list?

[trwi7]

He wasn't a super high draft pick but Cody Adams was terrible every time I saw him pitch.

[AKCheesehead]

For his performances as a player, how about the now GM Billy Beane ???

 

I remember once in the '80s listening to a game on the radio with my Dad. Tie game, extra innings 2 outs bases loaded and up comes Billy Beane. We both just knew a guy we never heard of with a name like Billy Beane was going to end up coming through to beat us and sure enough he did. To this day his name occasionally comes up when some nobody from the other team comes up to bat with the game on the line.