Which prospects do you want/not want the Brewers to trade?

[Oldcity]

Nobody is untouchable, but as I disliked the Ray pick, I hope they can use him in a package for something impactful.

[Ennder]

Drafting pitching early is a terrible path to drafting. The success rate on pitching draft picks is abysmal. You are so much better off trading for pitching later or signing free agent pitchers. I think the best path to success in the draft is to never draft a pitcher with your first 2 picks and then just trade for AA or AAA pitching later on. Once you get a pitcher that looks like the real deal in AA or higher you do not trade them imo. Once you hit on the lottery you stick with your guy because it is so rare to hit on it.

[trwi7]

So miss out on guys like Kershaw, Bumgarner, Verlander, Sale, Syndergaard etc. because the bust rate is high and then hang on to AA or higher starters who look like the real deal when you do draft pitchers (not going to happen very often if you're skipping pitching with your first two picks) and then expect other teams to trade their legit AA and AAA pitchers because you want them after the other team did almost all the developing?

 

Yeah, I'm going to say the chances of any of that working is smaller than the chance a pitching prospect turns into a good major league starter.

[Lee16]

I'd like to keep Hader and Brinson, especially Brinson.

 

I am REALLY hoping some other team is foolish enough to give us anything for Kodi Medeiros. The only way that guy ever sees the inside of Miller Park is if he buys a ticket.

[Austin Tatious]

Drafting pitching early is a terrible path to drafting. The success rate on pitching draft picks is abysmal. You are so much better off trading for pitching later or signing free agent pitchers. I think the best path to success in the draft is to never draft a pitcher with your first 2 picks and then just trade for AA or AAA pitching later on. Once you get a pitcher that looks like the real deal in AA or higher you do not trade them imo. Once you hit on the lottery you stick with your guy because it is so rare to hit on it.

 

The biggest problem is the Brewers whiff anyway. Of course you're going to miss on some high arm talent guys because the risk is higher. But if you look at the high end pitchers around baseball, a high majority were first round picks, mostly in the top half. I have no problem losing a Mark Rogers due to injury because we tried to get the arm talent. That's part of the deal. If the high end guy isn't there, sure go after position players. I'm not saying take any pitchers for the sake of it. I want high arm talent guys. You see a Triston Mackenzie or Michael Kopech, identify them, take them and pay overslot. You'll miss some but the reward is such a high magnitude move that it's worth it.

 

I'm in the camp that you need a couple of top starters to be a tough out in the playoffs. You can find exceptions but that's the way to go.

 

This franchise is a great test case for how you lack high end success without developing your own top shelf pitching. It causes a cascade of problems including trading the farm for rentals or investing big payroll on back half of the rotation starters and/or strapping yourself with long term deals like Looper, Suppan, Wolf, Lohse.

 

This wasn't a great year at 9 for top pitching but I'd still go with Baz or other pitcher based on the data they have. I sure wouldn't take a pitcher just for the sake of it. It may be that Hiura was the right guy, especially if the DH comes to the NL but it heightens the problem with Clark and especially Ray. Ray may be ok but I would look at him late teens or so. Fifth overall? If you were going OF at least do a Blake Rutherford. Well I've been outspoken on that even though Ray's a great kid. I made the point then, but the minute you drove Ray off the lot, his value was inevitably going to be lower than a number of guys taken after him. That says a lot.

 

I don't put Hiura in the catastrophic category because I think he will hit. I like Lutz in the way I liked Gatewood and Harrison. You can find these top shelf position guys outside the top 30 picks. When there are high upside pitchers you've got to snag them IMO.

 

As for trading, it's hard to pry away high end pitching prospects in trades. Ortiz and Bickford and that ilk are nice prospects but they aren't in the Chris Sale, Verlander, David Price, Keyshaw, Bumgarner, Greinke, Sabathia, Jose Fernandez zone. Ortiz labors past the fifth inning and hasn't dedicated himself to losing weight. Hader is good but still needs to improve his command. Bickford lacks judgment. Hopefully Burnes gets there. I loved the pick at the time.

 

I put my thoughts out there and stand by them. You hope to be wrong and everything goes well but we are drifting into ten years of whiffing on first rounders until 2017. The easy money has been on my side of the argument. There's difficulty finding any other franchise in all of professional sports who has completely misunderstood risk/reward and analysis of the first round draft process more than the Brewers over the past decade.

[SoCalBrewfan]

But if you look at the high end pitchers around baseball, a high majority were first round picks, mostly in the top half.

 

They might not all be what you might think of as 'high end pitchers,' but of the top 20 starters in bb-ref WAR, only four were drafted within the top 10 picks. Two more were in the 11-15 range, three others later in the first round or in the comp picks after 1.

 

And even if most top-end pitchers were high draft picks, it's certainly not true that most high draft picks become top-end pitchers. Two of those guys came out of the 2006 first round: Scherzer and Kershaw. Several other guys from that draft have had good careers, too, including Lincecum, Miller, and Ian Kennedy. (Also Jeremy Jeffress!). But there were 18 first round pitchers in '06, and most of them were nothing much. That was a really good year for pitching in the draft, by the way. In 2007 there were 17 pitchers chosen in the first round. Price at 1-1 and Bumgarner at 1-10 have been amazing, but after that it's Porcello, Jarrod Parker, and then not much else. By drafting a bat, Matt LaPorta, the Brewers were able to trade for a pitcher that mattered. Most of the teams that drafted a first round pitcher came away with very little to show for the pick. Position players bust, too, of course, but insisting on taking pitchers in the first round carries a lot of risk.

 

As for trading, it's hard to pry away high end pitching prospects in trades.

 

Only 7 of the 20 in the list above are with the team that first signed them into pro ball. (One is Yu Darvish, so maybe it's really 6?) Some of the acquisitions in question were expensive, to be sure, but smart teams can acquire long term pitching fixes in trades...guys like Kluber, Carrasco, Robbie Ray, or Fullmer are proof of that. (Did I just call the D-Backs smart? Maybe lucky?)

 

That's not to say that drafting pitching is never a good idea. It just comes with lots of risk, as well as an opportunity cost. Tunnel vision about talent acquisition is not healthy. Pitchers come from a lot of places, including trades, free agency, international signings, mid to late round nuggets, and the scrap heap. DeGrom was a 9th rounder! (So did Chase Anderson, for that matter, though I'm less ready to anoint him.)

[Austin Tatious]

But if you look at the high end pitchers around baseball, a high majority were first round picks, mostly in the top half.

 

They might not all be what you might think of as 'high end pitchers,' but of the top 20 starters in bb-ref WAR, only four were drafted within the top 10 picks. Two more were in the 11-15 range, three others later in the first round or in the comp picks after 1.

 

And even if most top-end pitchers were high draft picks, it's certainly not true that most high draft picks become top-end pitchers. Two of those guys came out of the 2006 first round: Scherzer and Kershaw. Several other guys from that draft have had good careers, too, including Lincecum, Miller, and Ian Kennedy. (Also Jeremy Jeffress!). But there were 18 first round pitchers in '06, and most of them were nothing much. That was a really good year for pitching in the draft, by the way. In 2007 there were 17 pitchers chosen in the first round. Price at 1-1 and Bumgarner at 1-10 have been amazing, but after that it's Porcello, Jarrod Parker, and then not much else. By drafting a bat, Matt LaPorta, the Brewers were able to trade for a pitcher that mattered. Most of the teams that drafted a first round pitcher came away with very little to show for the pick. Position players bust, too, of course, but insisting on taking pitchers in the first round carries a lot of risk.

 

As for trading, it's hard to pry away high end pitching prospects in trades.

 

Only 7 of the 20 in the list above are with the team that first signed them into pro ball. (One is Yu Darvish, so maybe it's really 6?) Some of the acquisitions in question were expensive, to be sure, but smart teams can acquire long term pitching fixes in trades...guys like Kluber, Carrasco, Robbie Ray, or Fullmer are proof of that. (Did I just call the D-Backs smart? Maybe lucky?)

 

That's not to say that drafting pitching is never a good idea. It just comes with lots of risk, as well as an opportunity cost. Tunnel vision about talent acquisition is not healthy. Pitchers come from a lot of places, including trades, free agency, international signings, mid to late round nuggets, and the scrap heap. DeGrom was a 9th rounder! (So did Chase Anderson, for that matter, though I'm less ready to anoint him.)

 

Lot of spin and distortions here, but just to be clear:

 

Chris Sale

Madison Bumgarner

CC Sabathia

Max Scherzer

Stephen Strasburg

the late Jose Fernandez (still recent pick)

Zach Grienke

David Price

Gerrit Cole

Clayton Kershaw

Justin Verlander

 

All were first half of first round draft picks. Other than, who, Scherzer, for the most part, they were not ever moved as prospects. Whether a guy left in free agency after being a big leaguer is wholly immaterial to the point. I'm also not here to talk about arms who are a level down. They could of course be found later but they aren't the needle movers like I listed.

 

A guy like Fulmer was still drafted in the top 40. It's not like he was a low round pick. McKenzie and Kopech were in the 30's but got nice bonuses. A guy like Kopech or Syndergaard got moved but in deals for top major league pitching. It's not the norm as my list above demonstrates.

 

If you want to get needle mover pitchers, you get them high in the draft and/or with bonuses. When they are that good, they are not moved as prospects. Right now, you look at top pitching prospects, and they aren't getting moved for the most part. You draft a Corey Ray, sure he can be moved. The top pitcher, of course not. And further, unlike the Yankees or Bosox, the Brewers can't just go buy a big time pitcher. They aren't buying Scherzer. They are buying Suppan. That actually further underscores the organization's failures and poor strategic thinking and execution in developing home grown starting pitching talent.

 

Obviously, you will find misses in the pitching area because of the risks are plenty. But that risk is worth the reward. You may have to take multiple cracks at it. This franchise's history actually proves the point. Sheets was great but the overall deep failure to draft and develop top pitching has put a ceiling on what could be done.

 

With a statistical understanding, the chances of finding a pitcher of the ilk that I described above later in the draft is very low. If you look at all the available pitching prospects taken after the top 40 or so picks, how many ninth round pitchers bombed for every gem like DeGrom? There are a thousand mediocrities or subpar guys for every top pitcher taken after the top 40. The odds are incredibly low. Pointing to an extreme exception is divorced from reality and grasping at straws.

 

And I am not saying you always take a pitcher. And it's not even that any pitcher is the answer. Medieros was not the right approach either. Good arm, good athlete, but lacked fine tuning. If you want an underslot guy, get a better prospect.

 

You don't want a pitcher at number 5? Fine, then why even take a kid with huge swing and miss in his game, without compensating it with pop, who is not a high average guy and is an average defender who did not even play center in college. That's the thought process at number 5 overall when you could get a bona fide pitching prospect, someone you would never consider trading, as other teams do, or even a high talent kid like Blake Rutherford if you are bent on taking an outfielder.

 

As it stands now, we may have our young talent moving up as we hope some of the young pitching emerges like a Jake Arrieta did and become stars. But we could just as easily be looking at Ortiz huffing and puffing through long innings and pitch counts, or Bickford who may pop a bad drug test at any time, or Hader who may or may not ever have good command. Our hopes rest with those guys and hopefully Woodruff and Burnes are for real. We need some good fortune in the pitching department. But that does not change the flawed thinking with first round assessments and failures. The Brewer success is in spite of this first round mis-management, obviously not because of it.

[Jaylyn]

No trade: Hader, Woodruff, Brinson, Phillips, Burnes, Ortiz, Bickford, Erceg, Gatewood, Diaz, F. Peralta. Long list, but I prefer the Packer approach of draft and develop.

[trwi7]

I would definitely be willing to trade Phillips.

[Oldcity]

For those wanting the Brewers to have this long list of untouchable prospects, how do you plan to use all of them in the future? They certainly won't all become solid big leaguers, and even if they somehow do, you won't have room for all of them. Some of them will hit, and some of them will fizzle out. Keeping them all is just as risky as trading a bunch of them.

[HighHeat19]

Stearns understands value. Specifically by the trades he has made on the other end as sellers. There is no doubt in my mind that Stearns will not be on the opposite end of the Will Smith or Thornburg type trades. Hence, the reason to have Hader up already and the acquisition of Jeanmar Gomez.

 

He also understands the value of toolsy middle INF and OF and acquires it because it is cost controllable, and less likely to fall the way to injury such as drafting pitchers high.

 

My guess is the Brewer's will only trade for a high end starter such as a DeGrom and would only give up as much as their hitters. I do not see Stearns giving up any pitching. Remember, their are more sellers than buyers. And that only increases as you approach the Deadline.

[jjfanec]

Guys I don't want to trade Brinson, Hader and Burnes. Fine with anyone else in the right deal

[brewcrewdue80]

For those wanting the Brewers to have this long list of untouchable prospects, how do you plan to use all of them in the future? They certainly won't all become solid big leaguers, and even if they somehow do, you won't have room for all of them. Some of them will hit, and some of them will fizzle out. Keeping them all is just as risky as trading a bunch of them.

 

 

I like the list of guys Jaylyn posted. I'd take Phillips and Bickford and switch with Harrison and Cody Ponce. That's 11 guys.

 

In terms of Gatewood/Harrison/Diaz/Peralta the numbers with improvement I don't want to be wrong on when waiting say 1 more year on them can give a clearer picture on them. Phillips and Bickford were at that point coming in to this season. I like the Mav, but he Ks too much with numbers that are going to be favorable in Colorado. In Bickford, we crapped out with his suspension.

 

I feel like the team's top prospects need to play for us vs being traded for a rental/less controlled piece. Yeah you can't hold on to all of them and the draft shown how that strategy works with HS picks after the 10th round aplenty. There are still talents that can be traded for a piece that will help this club.

 

Just need to be smart and consider whom you'd target, make your willing offer and stick to it.

 

 

As to the drafting discussion...I think it is amazing how poor the Brewers scouts are...sorry if I'm offending any lurkers...when it comes to pitchers. Suck it up!! Geez, I need 10min of tape on guys and have picked a high percentage of winners compared to losers. Just don't get how they can't figure it out on their collective experienced minds. You do this for a living...How can I watch 10-15mins of video and determine Ortiz was going to be good. Called Kolby Allard the best of Pitchers in 2015 draft and there he is 19 in AA since the season started. How in 20 years does this continue being a problem? It's not like the position players drafted since Braun have helped the team much. Bumgarner went after Laporta. Cole went after Lawrie...he didn't sign but 12picks higher maybe he would have. Screw 09 and 10. Etc, Etc, Etc.

[OnaBadger58]

Don't trade: Brinson, Hader, Woodruff, Burnes, Peralta, Diaz, Williams

Trade: Phillips, Ortiz, Ray

On the Fence: Erceg, Harrison

[JohnBriggs12]

The guys on most of the lists, Hader, Brinson, Burnes, Woodruff, are the guys who can help get the kind of return that can make a difference. I am fine with any one of those as long as it's just one from those four. I'd be okay with a Brinson/Ortiz package or a Burnes/Diaz package​ but not a Hader/Brinson or a Woodruff/Burnes.

[LouisEly]

The CF depth of this organization is amazing. Some of these guys don't play CF now, but that's because they are on the same team as a better CF. Every one of these guys has played CF the most in their career except for Stokes:

 

MLB: Phillips

AAA: Brinson, Broxton, Cordell

AA: Taylor

A+: Ray, T. Clark, Harrison, Stokes

A: (no one of note)

Rookie: Z. Clark, Pierre

 

This does not include Wren, Reed, Lujano, and Lutz has seen some games in CF in Arizona. I think Stokes has been stuck in LF mostly because he's been on the same teams as T. Clark/Harrison and now Ray.

 

The Brewers could deal several of these guys and still be stacked in CF. People know my thoughts on Ray; he's still a great prospect but I think he'll have more trade value now than two years from now. They deal Ray, they still have T. Clark/Harrison at that level/age.

 

I'd gladly move Brinson for the right young pitcher with multiple years of control if it meant not giving up one of the big four pitching prospects (Hader, Woodruff, Ortiz, Burnes), simply because of the level of depth at CF.

 

Phillips is the one guy I want to keep because he's a lefty and provides LH balance in the lineup, but like Brinson I'd move him for a young pitcher if it meant not giving up one of the big four pitching prospects.