Thames or Aguilar - Which one is Real?

[CheezWizHed]

So, Aguilar is beating the Yankees into submission tonight and its time for the debate to begin.

 

Right now, there is a soft platoon between Thames and Aguilar at 1B. And both players have been player well this year. And I would imagine that the platoon would continue for a while at least as Counsell plays the hot hand.

 

But, are either of these players "real"? Can either one continue their big improvements from this year? Who do you see as the long term starter at 1B?

 

Aguilar 27 years old. 2017: 288/350/525; career: 257/320/436 (Numbers are without his 2HR night against the Yankees)

Thames 30 years old. 2017: 245/375/566; career: 248/321/471

[wildcat83]

I'm ok with the platoon for now. Jesus numbers would probably come down slightly if he faced right handed pitching consistently. I would think they take advantage of the DH for the next two days and get them both in the lineup.

[OnTheBlack]

I'm ok with the platoon for now. Jesus numbers would probably come down slightly if he faced right handed pitching consistently. I would think they take advantage of the DH for the next two days and get them both in the lineup.

 

 

That seemed obvious to me, but I understand them giving Thames a night off.

 

As for which of them is real...I think they both are. I think Thames will level off and be a guy who hits .260-270 with an OBP about 80-100 points above that and an OPS around .840.

 

With Aguilar...I don't know what exactly I expect out of him numbers wise, but just the eye test, I've wrote this a few times on here, I love the guy. He's relatively short to the ball, has really good bat speed, can get on top of the mid 90's fastballs, he uses the whole field, has a good feel for the strike zone. He's not as good defensively as Thames and will probably only get worse, but he does have good hands and takes care of most everything hit near him. I have said he reminds me a bit of Abreu from the CHW. If he can be close what Abreu has been, I'll be thrilled.

[leitermab07]

Crazy how things can change in a yr. Last yr this organization looked like they had a big issue with no real players at the corner positions throughout the whole organization.. which now days is usually middle of the order hitters, they are crucial for competitive teams... Flip it to this yr.

 

In the majors the Brewers now have two 1st basemen that have had great moments and field their position above average in Thames and Aguilar. Aguilar in his last 45 games (is batting .327 (37-for-113, 7hr, 27rbi) over his last 45 games. Not bad for a waiver claim).

 

At 3rd Shaw is considered an MVP candidate and has been the most consistent player on this team.. Pretty remarkable seeing the Red Sox only viewed him as a platoon player. On top of that, this guy has dealt w/ a lot personally with his new born this year. Highway robbery how we got him and how he has performed.

 

And all three are getting paid extremely cheap other than Thames who is still a deal.

 

In the Minors the Brewers have drafted a top 10 organizational prospect in Erceg. He has done well so far and now former 1st rounder Jake Gatewood is having a great yr and will definitely rise up the prospect list.

 

Either this year is a magical one hit wonder, magic carpet ride. OR Stearns is a genius and his FO has quickly turned this franchise around.

[clancyphile]

I think both are real - as in they are legit players. They are maximized in a platoon, but they are both legit guys who could do reasoably well playing every day.

 

The title of the thread, though, is asking the wrong question.

 

We need to ask, "Which of these players is more replaceable?"

[CheezWizHed]

I'm not sure what you mean by "replaceable"? Are you thinking about trading one and promoting Cooper?

 

As for "real", I think you probably have a reasonable theory that the platoon is maximizing their production. Because I tend to think that both are playing over their heads and will fall back to earth given a large enough sample size. Thames was out at Pluto for a while and has fallen back to our atmosphere, but still playing ok.

 

By the way, Thames' 3TO percentage this year is over 50%

[Humans Need Water]

Both are starting caliber players. Thames locked up for 3 more years and Aguilar 5. Cooper is a great trade candidate at this time as if anything ever happened to either then Shaw can slide over and we'll still be covered at 3b with other players.

 

I don't think Thames is over his head since I predicted 850+ OPS and he's shown his patience at the plate. He expanded his zone once Braun went down, which he needed to stop doing and just take a walk and pass it down. Aguilar was a legit bat that was blocked in CLE and just needed an opportunity. I think what Counsell has done this year using both players has been really good and shouldn't be changed.

 

It's fun playing interleague games with both in the lineup together

[clancyphile]

Both are starting caliber players. Thames locked up for 3 more years and Aguilar 5. Cooper is a great trade candidate at this time as if anything ever happened to either then Shaw can slide over and we'll still be covered at 3b with other players.

 

I don't think Thames is over his head since I predicted 850+ OPS and he's shown his patience at the plate. He expanded his zone once Braun went down, which he needed to stop doing and just take a walk and pass it down. Aguilar was a legit bat that was blocked in CLE and just needed an opportunity. I think what Counsell has done this year using both players has been really good and shouldn't be changed.

 

It's fun playing interleague games with both in the lineup together

 

I agree, but there is a need for some bullpen help, and Aguilar is the type of asset who could be flipped for said help. Cooper looks like he will be able to post a similar OPS, will be under control for open more year, so why not flip Aguilar?

 

If Suter is past the 50 IP mark, Cooper is probably my #1 vote as things stand.

[newrivervalley]

Alway picture a player in game 7 WS bottom of 9th, team down one, one out: who do you want up? Thames or Aguilar. I want Thames.

[reillymcshane]

Alway picture a player in game 7 WS bottom of 9th, team down one, one out: who do you want up? Thames or Aguilar. I want Thames.

Even against a lefty?

[Humans Need Water]

Both are starting caliber players. Thames locked up for 3 more years and Aguilar 5. Cooper is a great trade candidate at this time as if anything ever happened to either then Shaw can slide over and we'll still be covered at 3b with other players.

 

I don't think Thames is over his head since I predicted 850+ OPS and he's shown his patience at the plate. He expanded his zone once Braun went down, which he needed to stop doing and just take a walk and pass it down. Aguilar was a legit bat that was blocked in CLE and just needed an opportunity. I think what Counsell has done this year using both players has been really good and shouldn't be changed.

 

It's fun playing interleague games with both in the lineup together

 

I agree, but there is a need for some bullpen help, and Aguilar is the type of asset who could be flipped for said help. Cooper looks like he will be able to post a similar OPS, will be under control for open more year, so why not flip Aguilar?

 

If Suter is past the 50 IP mark, Cooper is probably my #1 vote as things stand.

I wouldn't flip Aguilar because I don't think Cooper's bat is as good as Aguilar's overall. I like Cooper and his bat but the power aspect is huge off the bench and that's what Aguilar has. Aguilar having success already at this level will be critical when it matters most down the stretch. I just don't think Cooper can replace what Aguilar has done and that's why I wouldn't trade him. Plus, if we ever trade Thames then I would rather have Aguilar over Cooper starting. Technically Shaw could slide over to 1b too if we have a 3b at that point in time to back-fill him there but that's another topic.

 

If we are using MLB players to acquire that pen arm then I'd seriously consider trading Broxton but then you might risk messing with the culture/chemistry. I think by the end of July Brinson is ready to play every day and can match, if not exceed, what Broxton has done this year. Then in Sept you bring up Phillips and Cordell. Broxton with 5yrs control as a starting caliber CF can bring a really good pen arm. I would use Cooper and other minor leaguers for potential trades.

[FVBrewerFan]

Alway picture a player in game 7 WS bottom of 9th, team down one, one out: who do you want up? Thames or Aguilar. I want Thames.

 

Put that way, all thing being equal, I would take Aguilar. Doesn't strike out as much, patient at the plate. Very close call though.

[reillymcshane]

Alway picture a player in game 7 WS bottom of 9th, team down one, one out: who do you want up? Thames or Aguilar. I want Thames.

 

Put that way, all thing being equal, I would take Aguilar. Doesn't strike out as much, patient at the plate. Very close call though.

This year, Thames has a 27.1% strikeout rate. Aguilar has a 29.5% rate.

 

Thames also has a 15.5% walk rate - more than double Aguilar (7.4%).

[CheezWizHed]

Thames 3TO ratio is over 50% this year. I figured that would be sufficient to be a fan favorite.

 

So, it would seem most people think both players won't regress? I tend to think Aguilar will fall off in the second half. However, I doubt he has any real trade worth either.

[Ennder]

I have no clue what to think of Thames but it is really hard for someone who walks 15% of the time to not bring some sort of value to a team. If Aguilar is protected against good righties I expect him to have value as well. His long term value really depends on how well he does vs righties.

[OnTheBlack]

Both are starting caliber players. Thames locked up for 3 more years and Aguilar 5. Cooper is a great trade candidate at this time as if anything ever happened to either then Shaw can slide over and we'll still be covered at 3b with other players.

 

I don't think Thames is over his head since I predicted 850+ OPS and he's shown his patience at the plate. He expanded his zone once Braun went down, which he needed to stop doing and just take a walk and pass it down. Aguilar was a legit bat that was blocked in CLE and just needed an opportunity. I think what Counsell has done this year using both players has been really good and shouldn't be changed.

 

It's fun playing interleague games with both in the lineup together

 

I agree, but there is a need for some bullpen help, and Aguilar is the type of asset who could be flipped for said help. Cooper looks like he will be able to post a similar OPS, will be under control for open more year, so why not flip Aguilar?

 

If Suter is past the 50 IP mark, Cooper is probably my #1 vote as things stand.

 

Look at the type of prospects teams are giving up for BP help? We got a package last year for Will Smith including a top..what..60 pitching prospect who had just pitched in the futures game as well as a catcher who was the 49th ranked prospect before he was brought up to early and lost his prospect status. For Thornburg, a guy who did have nice stretches in which he dominated, but also was injured and had some big questions marks we got Shaw, and then a good middle IF prospect and a younger power arm that was a big of a fliar. Though with that deal being in the off-season it's not even really comparable because the need isn't nearly as high.

 

My point is from watching Aguilar, I think he is a much better player than any return we get might reflect based on the small sample size. And I think it's a lot to ask for Cooper to step in and provide anywhere near the same type of production as Aguilar.

[superfly]

The beard.

[3and2Fastball]

 

We need to ask, "Which of these players is more replaceable?"

 

Probably Aguilar, because he is a RH hitter and because of Garrett Cooper. Although I'm a little concerned about Coopers Home/Road split in AAA (.442/.300)

[JohnBriggs12]

 

We need to ask, "Which of these players is more replaceable?"

 

Probably Aguilar, because he is a RH hitter and because of Garrett Cooper. Although I'm a little concerned about Coopers Home/Road split in AAA (.442/.300)

 

Aguilar's success at the major league level and his control make him a better trade candidate than Cooper. Yes Cooper has raked in Colorado Springs, but it's not like he's been a bum away from there with a more than respectable road .859 OPS. As Billy Ripkin said during the AAA All Star game last night "Colorado Springs is a great place to hit, but you still have to do it, and he's doing it better than anyone else on their roster", a roster that includes some very, very highly rated prospects I might add. He also commented on how difficult it is for a big guy like Cooper to keep from getting real long with his swing. Yet his K rate is very, very low for a guy slugging .652. At this point, I think Cooper could replace Aguilar and they wouldn't miss a beat.

 

Cooper also has some OF experience, though most of that was last year. I still think athletically he could play OF too.

[adambr2]

I like Cooper a lot, and i think its possible he could mirror Aguilar's production given a chance.

 

That said I don't think he has much trade value, nor do I think Aguilar is going to be much of a trade commodity based on half a season of production.

[FVBrewerFan]

Bats don't seem to have the value in general anymore at the deadline. Maybe a UT guy, 4th OF, but doesn't seem like many deals get done beyond that. (That's why I'm sure Perez would be in high demand, but that's OT.)

 

Aguilar may have value because he's proven to be a good PH. Small sample, sure, but PH is always going to be a small sample. But that is something that means a lot more in a playoff series.

 

I've said it before, but Cooper is a textbook "market inefficiency" guy. He SHOULD have value, but really doesn't. Especially at trade deadline. I just feel if the situation was reversed and Stearns needed a 1B next year, Cooper would be the kind of guy he would pick up for nothing or next to nothing.