Brewers prepared to buy, doing background work on Gray and Quintana

[MrTPlush]

You just listed a bunch of close games that Hader came in and delivered a scoreless performance...and that is your evidence that he isn't very valuable?

 

When I look at Hader I don't think he has played all that well or been that valuable. However I really believe down the stretch he will be a big part which is important when you flirt with the idea of trading him. I also take into account his value in future seasons. I think he will be a major bullpen arm. Knebel and Hader could be a pretty good 1-2 punch at the back end. Maybe he is only a bullpen arm, but when you can be elite at it that is a pretty valuable player. I don't want to trade him or Brinson. We could make a competitive offer(possibly win) using players farther away from the MLB level.

[Jenkins5]

I'm starting to come around on Gray a bit. DJ can get most out of him and has really turned it on now after slow start. He will cost us Broxton, Brinson, or Phillips for sure. A's are in desperate need of young athletic OFs. With the chemistry right now of this club, if don't see them trading Broxton. I love Phillips but think he'd be the odd man out in the equation.

 

You'd also have to give up Woodruff, Burns, Ortiz, or Peralta as well.

 

After that you may be able offer like Coulter, Ponce, Tyrone Taylor. Finish with a throw in.

 

Think a Phillips, Ortiz, Coulter would get it done. Thin out OF log jam a bit. Coulter is the typical As OF plus can DH. Phillips gives them a 12 year younger CF who shouldn't struggle much worse than R. Davis right now. Ortiz gives them a high upside arm.

[LouisEly]

I don't know that you'd need to give up one of the big five pitching prospects (Hader, Woodruff, Burnes, Ortiz, Peralta) because the A's really need OF at all levels of the org. They only have two OFs in their top 20 prospects and one of them started the year in the DSL. The A's also need a middle infielder for 2018.

 

People forget that Cordell is a CF - he's played CF more than any other position in the minors, but doesn't play there now because of Brinson. He's very athletic.

 

I would much rather give up Ray than any of the big five pitching prospects. Ray + Dubon + Cordell + a fourth piece (Coulter? Supak? Zack Brown? Kirby?) is a lot to give up, but it means they keep their top pitching prospects.

 

I'd like to keep Phillips with the plan being to trade Broxton in the offseason, and then platoon Brinson/Phillips next year to help them make the adjustment to the majors.

[OnTheBlack]

But he's not now, which isn't going to damage the bullpen that much, which is why you said you wouldn't trade him.

Sure right now there wouldn't be a big dent in the bullpen if he was traded, but again he has performed when his number is called. Please don't tell me you believe Lopez can be as effective as Hader is right now. And no that is not why I said I wouldn't trade him. I said he would be (is) a key piece meaning I wouldn't trade him because of where he is now and what his ceiling is.

 

He has performed when his number is called, despite the ridiculous number of walks but again, let's look at when he's been called upon.

 

Game 1: Brewers are losing 3-2 to the Diamondbacks. To his credit, he didn't allow a run in his inning keeping the Brewers well within striking distance.

 

Game 2: Came in with runners on 1st and 3rd with 2 outs and the Brewers leading 5-4. Threw two pitches and got out of the inning when Pina threw out Fowler trying to steal 2nd. He literally had to do nothing in this appearance despite pitching.

 

Game 3: Pitched a scoreless 6th and 7th inning a tie game. The Brewers would end up scoring two in the 9th to secure a win. Maybe Blazek or Lopez give up a run or more if they were asked to pitch two innings in this situation. Maybe they pitch two scoreless innings.

 

Game 4: Comes in with the Brewers trailing 7-2 and pitches two solid innings. Brewers end up losing 7-3.

 

Game 5: Pitches a scoreless 7th with the Brewers trailing 3-1. Brewers end up losing 3-1.

 

Game 6: Comes in with the Brewers trailing 3-2 and pitches two scoreless innings. Brewers end up tying the game at 3 but Knebel blows the game in the 8th and the Brewers end up losing 4-3.

 

Game 7: Pitches a scoreless inning with the Brewers leading 7-4. Brewers end up winning 8-4.

 

Game 8: Comes in with the Brewers trailing 3-2 after a rain delay. Gives up a homer to make it 4-2 but the Brewers come back and that's the only blemish in his three innings. This appearance might be difficult to replace but with Blazek starting in the minors, it's possible that he would be able to give us 3 innings if need be.

 

Game 9: Comes in with the Brewers leading 9-6 with a runner on 3rd and 1 out. Strikes out the two batters he faces in the 7th to keep the run off the board. Walks the leadoff hitter in the 8th and gets taken out. It's nice that he didn't allow the runner on 3rd to score with 1 out but even if he (or any other pitcher) did, it's still a two run lead.

 

Sorry, you're just going to have a really hard time convincing me that Hader isn't replaceable with the way he's being used now. That's not Hader's fault but he's also not an irreplaceable piece of the bullpen right now.

 

 

 

I'm not seeing how this is proving the poster you quoted wrong. His words were

"I said he would be (is) a key piece meaning I wouldn't trade him because of where he is now and what his ceiling is."

 

So evidence that they brought Hader along slowly in his first couple Major League outings and that he's come in to several close games and almost everytime kept the Brewers in a position to come back doesn't in any way disprove that he has a high ceiling or that he is becoming a key piece of our pen.

 

Plus....even he hadn't come up and given up 1 run in his first 13 innings...or whatever it's been with a K per IP(and roughly 1 BB as well)...even if he had a ERA of 10 thus far. Doesn't that mean we should trade a guy like him? For years I've read how we can't develop left handed starting pitching or complaining in the draft threads because we're not drafting enough left handers. Well...we've got a left handed power pitcher now who is young, controllable for 6 years and who could be a good starter or high leverage reliever.

 

By this logic(listing the situations he's come into)...man, Brinson should be all but given away. See if someone will throw us a bone there because he's been awful in the few games he's played in Milwaukee. Arcia was pretty awful for us both the first couple months when he came up last year as well as this year. But Hader's actually been good, he's just been eased in.

 

Just as much as that though, I don't think Gray is gonna make much difference if the Cubs really get rolling. I think he makes even less if they don't but we run into the Dodgers or even the Nats if we do hand on and get into to the playoffs.

[trwi7]

Two of the last three times he's been in a game were when the Brewers had 3 run leads. The other time he came in was after a rain delay. The three times before that he came in when they were trailing and once when they were getting blown out. That doesn't scream high leverage reliever to me.

[brewmann04]

I keep Josh over Lopez any day of the week

[adambr2]

https://www.brewcrewball.com/2017/9/25/16360096/white-sox-wanted-josh-hader-in-a-potential-jose-quintana-deal-with-milwaukee-per-report

 

It was reported that the hangup between the Brewers and White Sox on a Quintana deal was the Sox insisting that Hader be included. They also reportedly preferred the Cubs' package with Jimenez over a deal with us including both Brinson and Ortiz.

 

Brinson and Ortiz would have been acceptable especially with the recent emergence of Phillips, but I can completely understand why including both Brinson and Hader was off the table.

 

I'm disappointed we arent going to win the division but glad we did not do this deal.

[jerichoholicninja]

I made one random post somewhere that JD Martinez is a guy they should be looking at and not worry about the OF logjam. Who knows if he would have hit like Barry Bonds with us but after seeing what it took to get him (almost nothing) he certainly would have helped us without hurting the future. Those 27 HR and 1.000+ OPS probably would have put us in the playoffs.

[MrTPlush]

Could JD Martinez have played CF? He has never done so in his career.

[jerichoholicninja]

Could JD Martinez have played CF? He has never done so in his career.

 

No, but that's why I said you deal with the logjam later. Braun, Santana, and Martinez could have easily rotated through the corner spots. Or Santana could have been traded to upgrade somewhere else. Mainly though, I don't think anyone could have predicted Braun to stay healthy the whole second half of the season.

[adambr2]

Santana has CF experience, but I think the fact that Villar has played CF this year and Santana hasn't probably tells us all we need to know about how we feel about Santana in center. Maybe if they would have traded for Martinez they would have tried to get away with it once in awhile to get all 3 bats in the lineup, I don't know.

 

I've wondered in the past if Braun could do a not disastrous job in center.

[KeithStone53151]

Yeah we should not be even considering trading Josh Hader. I can't blame them for asking, but absolutely not. True impact pitching with this much team control is solid gold, whether he's a starter or reliever he has absurd value.

 

At this point, it seems fairly obvious that a trade for Gray or Quintana might have put us over the edge to a playoff spot this year. But I think it makes way more sense to make moves like that when we have a more stable core of talent that is truly ready to go toe to toe with a team like the Dodgers or Nationals. Sure this team might have gotten in, but is there any chance we would have been favorites against anybody? And we still might sneak in.......

[adambr2]

Yeah we should not be even considering trading Josh Hader. I can't blame them for asking, but absolutely not. True impact pitching with this much team control is solid gold, whether he's a starter or reliever he has absurd value.

 

At this point, it seems fairly obvious that a trade for Gray or Quintana might have put us over the edge to a playoff spot this year. But I think it makes way more sense to make moves like that when we have a more stable core of talent that is truly ready to go toe to toe with a team like the Dodgers or Nationals.......

 

Maybe we would have? But I don't think it's totally certain, because you also have to account for the negative value of losing starts in the 2nd half from guys who have been pretty good starting for us, like Suter and Woodruff, and if you trade Hader losing the value he has had to the pen which has been even more dramatic.

 

So I don't think it's totally certain that acquiring Quintana would have dramatically affected our record.

 

I also totally agree with the second part of what you said, but I wonder why people generally feel that way moreso now (don't give up the farm for a playoff spot, build a better foundation first), whereas back in 2008 it was the opposite, most fans felt, it doesn't really matter what we gave up for CC, he got us to the playoffs.

[KeithStone53151]

Yeah we should not be even considering trading Josh Hader. I can't blame them for asking, but absolutely not. True impact pitching with this much team control is solid gold, whether he's a starter or reliever he has absurd value.

 

At this point, it seems fairly obvious that a trade for Gray or Quintana might have put us over the edge to a playoff spot this year. But I think it makes way more sense to make moves like that when we have a more stable core of talent that is truly ready to go toe to toe with a team like the Dodgers or Nationals.......

 

Maybe we would have? But I don't think it's totally certain, because you also have to account for the negative value of losing starts in the 2nd half from guys who have been pretty good starting for us, like Suter and Woodruff, and if you trade Hader losing the value he has had to the pen which has been even more dramatic.

 

So I don't think it's totally certain that acquiring Quintana would have dramatically affected our record.

 

I also totally agree with the second part of what you said, but I wonder why people generally feel that way moreso now (don't give up the farm for a playoff spot, build a better foundation first), whereas back in 2008 it was the opposite, most fans felt, it doesn't really matter what we gave up for CC, he got us to the playoffs.

 

You'll still get a ton of fans who don't understand how to build a successful, winning franchise who would want to trade prospects for big name talent any chance we get. Casual fans that don't track our prospects and understand team control rules, etc. I wasn't on this board in 2008 so I have no idea what the thought process here was, I could definitely see quite a few people being unhappy with a big trade for CC though considering what we gave up.

[tmwiese55]

In 2008, you're adding CC to go with at the time a dominant Sheets. You're looking at going into a playoff series with those two starting 4 or 5 of the games in a 7 game series. You had a legit shot vs anyone, but of course Sheets got hurt and it ruined it. And of course they had a very good lineup with two MVP level hitters in Prince and Braun. Also, the WC wasn't a one game playoff back then.

[paul253]

You'll still get a ton of fans who don't understand how to build a successful, winning franchise who would want to trade prospects for big name talent any chance we get

 

You make it seem so easy. You just have to acquire a whole bunch of talented minor leaguers and then that will always automatically turn into a successful winning franchise.

 

The problem is that's what we did in the late 2000s. We had two possible future Hall of Famers in the middle of our lineup plus three or four very good secondary pieces for a number of years. What did we win? One wild card birth and one division title three years later. And why did we even win that? Becuase we traded minor leaguers for big name talent. Without CC we don't make the playoffs in 08. Without Greinke and maybe even Marcum we don't make the playoffs in 11. I understand your love for prospects and I agree that a franchise like Milwaukee has to build from within. But there is absolutely a place for big name talent. Prospects fail like.....all the time. We cannot solely rely on our prospects and expect to win year in and year out. Gray was there for the having and we balked. It's understandable but now because of a series of unfortunate events not only are we unlikely to make the playoffs this season but we have a big hole to fill in our 2018 rotation.

[JohnBriggs12]

You'll still get a ton of fans who don't understand how to build a successful, winning franchise who would want to trade prospects for big name talent any chance we get

 

You make it seem so easy. You just have to acquire a whole bunch of talented minor leaguers and then that will always automatically turn into a successful winning franchise.

 

The problem is that's what we did in the late 2000s. We had two possible future Hall of Famers in the middle of our lineup plus three or four very good secondary pieces for a number of years. What did we win? One wild card birth and one division title three years later. And why did we even win that? Becuase we traded minor leaguers for big name talent. Without CC we don't make the playoffs in 08. Without Greinke and maybe even Marcum we don't make the playoffs in 11. I understand your love for prospects and I agree that a franchise like Milwaukee has to build from within. But there is absolutely a place for big name talent. Prospects fail like.....all the time. We cannot solely rely on our prospects and expect to win year in and year out. Gray was there for the having and we balked. It's understandable but now because of a series of unfortunate events not only are we unlikely to make the playoffs this season but we have a big hole to fill in our 2018 rotation.

 

Very good points. At best most prospects turn out to be solid major league contributors. That's great but won't win championships. If you are lucky, as the Brewers were a decade ago, you get a couple difference makers like Braun and Fielder. If the Brewers fall a game or two short this year, it's a fair assessment that their timidity cost a rare playoff appearance. Granted getting bounced after wild card game is barely worth mentioning, but winning that one game puts you on equal footing with the division winners.

[KeithStone53151]

You'll still get a ton of fans who don't understand how to build a successful, winning franchise who would want to trade prospects for big name talent any chance we get

 

You make it seem so easy. You just have to acquire a whole bunch of talented minor leaguers and then that will always automatically turn into a successful winning franchise.

 

The problem is that's what we did in the late 2000s. We had two possible future Hall of Famers in the middle of our lineup plus three or four very good secondary pieces for a number of years. What did we win? One wild card birth and one division title three years later. And why did we even win that? Becuase we traded minor leaguers for big name talent. Without CC we don't make the playoffs in 08. Without Greinke and maybe even Marcum we don't make the playoffs in 11. I understand your love for prospects and I agree that a franchise like Milwaukee has to build from within. But there is absolutely a place for big name talent. Prospects fail like.....all the time. We cannot solely rely on our prospects and expect to win year in and year out. Gray was there for the having and we balked. It's understandable but now because of a series of unfortunate events not only are we unlikely to make the playoffs this season but we have a big hole to fill in our 2018 rotation.

 

I was moreso referring to casual fans and not BF posters, to be clear. And it absolutely isn't easy, but this franchise currently has more and better assets than the 2008 team did. Sure we don't have any superstar young position players like a braun or fielder, but we are in so much better shape on the pitching side that it more than makes up for it. And we have young talent all the way down our system. The Gray type moves are for those that subscribe to the window theory. I would much rather try to build like the cardinals model than try a window theory like Melvin in the late 2000's and Theo does consistently. The Cardinals are competitive every year, and have gotten hot at the right time to win it all more than once. I can't remember them ever shelling out a ton of big time prospects at the deadline either. They primarily build from within and trust their guys. Over the last couple years they've moved away from that a bit to be honest(Peralta, Fowler, Holliday signings), but their model is what I'm hoping Stearns can achieve.

[stoutdude04]

 

Granted getting bounced after wild card game is barely worth mentioning, but winning that one game puts you on equal footing with the division winners.

 

Not really. You are still on the road and most likely burned your best or one of your best starting pitchers. I agree with your assessment about getting bounced in the 1st game though.

[KeithStone53151]

You'll still get a ton of fans who don't understand how to build a successful, winning franchise who would want to trade prospects for big name talent any chance we get

 

You make it seem so easy. You just have to acquire a whole bunch of talented minor leaguers and then that will always automatically turn into a successful winning franchise.

 

The problem is that's what we did in the late 2000s. We had two possible future Hall of Famers in the middle of our lineup plus three or four very good secondary pieces for a number of years. What did we win? One wild card birth and one division title three years later. And why did we even win that? Becuase we traded minor leaguers for big name talent. Without CC we don't make the playoffs in 08. Without Greinke and maybe even Marcum we don't make the playoffs in 11. I understand your love for prospects and I agree that a franchise like Milwaukee has to build from within. But there is absolutely a place for big name talent. Prospects fail like.....all the time. We cannot solely rely on our prospects and expect to win year in and year out. Gray was there for the having and we balked. It's understandable but now because of a series of unfortunate events not only are we unlikely to make the playoffs this season but we have a big hole to fill in our 2018 rotation.

 

Very good points. At best most prospects turn out to be solid major league contributors. That's great but won't win championships. If you are lucky, as the Brewers were a decade ago, you get a couple difference makers like Braun and Fielder. If the Brewers fall a game or two short this year, it's a fair assessment that their timidity cost a rare playoff appearance. Granted getting bounced after wild card game is barely worth mentioning, but winning that one game puts you on equal footing with the division winners.

 

If the core of the team is better next year(it should be expected to be with all our youth), and next deadline offers better opportunities to use our chips to build a roster that can truly contend...you'll probably be very happy you aren't GM and Stearns held his chips until a better opportunity presented itself.

[monty57]

I would have loved to have traded for Quintana, and said at the time I would have traded Brinson to do so. However, in my opinion the Cubs way overpaid for him and I am glad that we backed off when the price tag got too high.

 

I just hope the Cubs get bounced early and the horde of prospects they gave up over the past two seasons turn out to be stars so Cub fans spend the next decade lamenting that they're playing for someone else. The Cubs were in a position to dominate for a long time, and now I think they have a short window that will start closing at the end of this season.

[adambr2]

You'll still get a ton of fans who don't understand how to build a successful, winning franchise who would want to trade prospects for big name talent any chance we get

 

You make it seem so easy. You just have to acquire a whole bunch of talented minor leaguers and then that will always automatically turn into a successful winning franchise.

 

The problem is that's what we did in the late 2000s. We had two possible future Hall of Famers in the middle of our lineup plus three or four very good secondary pieces for a number of years. What did we win? One wild card birth and one division title three years later. And why did we even win that? Becuase we traded minor leaguers for big name talent. Without CC we don't make the playoffs in 08. Without Greinke and maybe even Marcum we don't make the playoffs in 11. I understand your love for prospects and I agree that a franchise like Milwaukee has to build from within. But there is absolutely a place for big name talent. Prospects fail like.....all the time. We cannot solely rely on our prospects and expect to win year in and year out. Gray was there for the having and we balked. It's understandable but now because of a series of unfortunate events not only are we unlikely to make the playoffs this season but we have a big hole to fill in our 2018 rotation.

 

I agree with some of your points but you can't just assume we wouldn't have made the playoffs at all over the last 10 years without going for it twice and just sticking with our young core. Heck the Royals went to 2 World Series and won one largely in part because of the young players we traded to them.

[tmwiese55]

IDK, I feel like maybe the Pirates and Rays are thinking they should have went all in and to get the last piece or two to get over the hump rather than holding onto all their youth and prospects. And the Royals are probably happy they made a few 'go for it' trades that helped them win. I'm not saying that route is the only way.

 

I'd more say that each situation is different and needs to be assessed as it arises rather than stick to one mindset no matter what. In the Brewers case, they knew they had a WS level lineup for those years and their assessment was that they had no pitching coming so they only way to get value or a deep run out of all those hitting prospects that did pan out was to find a way to add ready made pitching. If Gallardo was a notch better than he was, Jeffress panned out as a legit starter, Estrada was better than he'd shown up to that point, Jorge DeLaRosa lived up to the potential. Or whatever that would have led to having deep pitching instead of the nothing they had it would have altered their thinking a bit and likely gone a different way.

 

A Tampa always knew they had young pitching in the works behind the guys at the big league level, so thought they could ride it out a longer time so did it their way. You can go through each team's choices and see the logic.

[LouisEly]

I would have loved to have traded for Quintana, and said at the time I would have traded Brinson to do so. However, in my opinion the Cubs way overpaid for him and I am glad that we backed off when the price tag got too high.

 

I just hope the Cubs get bounced early and the horde of prospects they gave up over the past two seasons turn out to be stars so Cub fans spend the next decade lamenting that they're playing for someone else. The Cubs were in a position to dominate for a long time, and now I think they have a short window that will start closing at the end of this season.

Hard to believe that Quintana already has 13 starts for the Cubs this year.

 

I think people forget how much the Cubs have given up to acquire Quintana, Wade Davis, Wilson, and Avila for this season and Chapman, Montgomery, and Zobrist last season. They did all of that, and they still couldn't run away from the Brewers.

 

The other lesson here is that the Cubs didn't win by hanging on to their prospects. Yes, they invested in free agents (Lester, Hayward, Jay, Uehara), but they had to make trades to shore up their holes in order to win it.

[jerichoholicninja]

Quintana isn't driving in runs in place of Braun, Shaw, and Santana strikeouts so he probably doesn't make a big difference this year. Glad we didn't give up what the Sox wanted to get him.