Brewers prepared to buy, doing background work on Gray and Quintana

[A Swing and A Drive]

Brewer fans unwilling to trade pitching prospects would have likely deemed Wily Peralta an "untouchable" pitching prospect not long ago

 

Even if these guys don't reach their ceilings or turn into all stars developing your own pitching saves a ton of money. Up until this season Peralta wasn't all that bad so if youre going to use him as an example you have to decide if his time here was worth more or less than a half season of whoever it is you were going to trade him for 8 years ago.

 

We still have very few quality pitching prospects and while trading for guys like Quintana or Gray, who have multiple years of control, won't hurt as much as trading for a half season rental we still need our own guys to fill the rotation so we can spend our money elsewhere.

 

For Quintana or Gray (preferrably Quintana) Id only include Hader, Ortiz or Woodruff but not more than one. The rest of the package would have to help ease our crowded outfield situation, though Brinson to me is untouchable as I see him as having a chance to be a perennial all star. So my best offer for Quintana would be: Woodruff/Hader/Ortiz + Ray/Phillips + 2 lesser guys (Lopez/Cordell/Medeiros/Cooper/Ponce/Orimoloye/etc). For Gray I offer less.

 

I hope the times are a changing, but the Brewers have not been just terrible but absolutely atrocious at developing their own starting pitchers for decades now.

 

In the last 20+ years the SP that the Brewers have drafted and developed that have won more than 25 games as a Brewer are:

 

Yovani 89 wins

Sheets 86 wins

Jimmy Nelson 29 wins

Manny Parra 26 wins

 

That's the entire list folks. Plus Peralta has 47 wins as an international signee.

 

That could aid to the argument that the guys like Hader and Woodruff are "untouchable" via trade but I think it also points out the huge attrition rate of pitching prospects.

 

Having a bird in the hand is better than having two in the bush. (especially for contenders, lol)

 

I understand fans concerns about Sonny Gray due to his size and injury plagued 2016 season.

 

However, I not only believe that he is the better pitcher of the two (Quintana) but I also think that he will cost less via trade.

 

I think that we maybe could land him in a package without Brinson or Hader (and hopefully not Woodruff or Ortiz either.)

 

The Brewers are lucky to have a nice group of prospects right behind those preceived "blue chippers" above that I think the organization can afford to part with.

 

I think a deal could be headlined by OF Corey Ray. (before his perceived value takes a Clint Coulter like downturn. He's already fallen out of Baseball America's Top 100 prospects BTW)

 

Once again, which of these players is really the deal breaker in my proposed Gray offer?

 

OF Corey Ray

MI Mauricio Dubon

OF Trent Clark

RHP Marcos Diplan

 

 

I actually think Dubon could end up being the best major leaguer in my offer. But with Arcia, Villar, Isan Diaz and now Keston Huira in our system, I think the Brewers are well covered at MI for the future and can afford to part with Dubon.

[monty57]

Since Braun looks to be a Brewer for life, we have an excess of OF. As much as I like Brinson, and as much as I like stockpiling prospects, I wouldn't mind seeing a package for Quintana built around Brinson if that means we would have to give up less pitching in the deal.

 

We'd get Quintana (I believe) through the 2020 season. We'd probably use him the rest of this season, and to open next year. If we were still winning, we'd keep him. If this season is an anomaly, and we're not in the race next year, we trade him away for similar talent to what we'd give up this year. Only, we clear up a little of the logjam at OF we currently have, and hopefully get top talent at a position of greater need.

 

I agree with others that Gray should only be in the same conversation as Quintana if it is: "The Brewers would give up top talent for Qunitana. If they can't land Quintana, they would give up significantly less talent for Gray."

[tmwiese55]

I'm really not all that high on Gray so would only be interested if it costs none of the top top prospects. I'd be in the discussion for Quintana and see what happens, he's been legit for years and is cost controlled longer. But again, this talk of a Hader, Brinson, Woodruff/Ortiz package just can't happen. Think about it this way, when we were trading our guys the last few years we all sat here and pointed out why the top top guys in other people's farms were off limits and generally had to settle for other deals. But now it's the other way around and we have to give up our top 3 prospects for non-ace pitcher? It shouldn't require that much, and if it does you just walk away. We do have an abundance of OF prospects to use though for something, and it will likely be relief help instead.

 

Kick the tires and all, but like has been said, even getting Quintana doesn't make them favorites to win the NL, let alone the WS. Now, if you were getting a CC/Greinke level true ace that changes things but they're not out there this year.

[igor67]

I don't mind dealing OFers given the large amount of depth, but I really want to spread out the level they are drawn from. Namely 1 from the MLB/AAA level and 1 from the A ball level. I'd even go 3 if we included lower tier guys like Coulter. I'd hesitate on Dubon to preserve depth. I don't think Suter keeps the magic going as a starter for very long, but we're starting to get to a point that we can seemingly have Cardinals like like getting a few months on good performance out of starting pitchers debuting. Which is a welcome change.

[JosephC]

Since Braun looks to be a Brewer for life, we have an excess of OF.

 

Maybe half Brewer for life, and other half on DL for the remainder of his Brewer career.

[A Swing and A Drive]

I like the fact that Quintana is a lefty with an additional year of control as well.

 

However, I think the White Sox will hold out for an absolute haul of prospects for him, and rightfully so.

 

That's the thing with Quintana and Gray, their clubs DON'T HAVE TO TRADE THEM this deadline if they are not completely blown away and get exactly what value they want via trade. This basically gives them the upper hand in any potential trade.

 

For Quintana, I think both the Astros and Cubs would be able and willing to match or top our offer (if we even decide to make one).

 

Astros hypothetical offer for Quintana:

OF Kyle Tucker (BA #11 overall prospect)

RHP Franklin Perez (BA #32 overall prospect)

OF Derek Fisher (BA #54 overall prospect)

 

Cubs hypothetical offer for Quintana:

OF Eloy Jimenez (BA #5 overall prospect)

RHP Dylan Cease (BA #83 overall prospect)

3B Jeimer Candelario (#3 org prospect MLB-ready)

 

Brewers hypothetical offer for Quintana:

OF Lewis Brinson (BA #16 overall prospect)

SP Woodruff, Hader or Ortiz (BA #43, 61, 67 respectively)

3B Lucas Erceg (#7 organizational prospect, probably 150-200 overall range)

 

And if the Yankees decided they want him, they have the #3 overall prospect in baseball to offer, 3B/SS Gleybar Torres.

 

I suspect Stearns won't want (nor should he likely) to pay the actual cost to land Quintana.

 

I'm worried if the Cubs lose out on Jose they will turn to Sonny, who they drafted out of high school (he decided to attend Vanderbilt and did not sign).

[DocLuna7]

There's a reason that Gray will likely be lest costly then Quintana. Just makes absolutely no sense to me to empty the farm for a guy who is unreliable or a number 3 starter.

[DocLuna7]

There's a reason that Gray will likely be lest costly then Quintana. Just makes absolutely no sense to me to empty the farm for a guy who is unreliable or a number 3 starter.

[JosephC]

That's the thing with Quintana and Gray, their clubs DON'T HAVE TO TRADE THEM this deadline if they are not completely blown away and get exactly what value they want via trade. This basically gives them the upper hand in any potential trade.

 

 

That's right. Which is why it's probably better if Stearns trolls the bottom of the pitching market for another starter and another reliever.

 

I'm fine with trading away two or three "top 10 organizational prospects" for a starter who provides some insurance plus a good reliever that could boost the performance of the bullpen. But getting into bidding wars for these top rated starters (or a highly regarded reliever)...count me out.

 

I do think there is a chance, considering his lack of size plus the poor 2016 season, that Oakland may decide now is the time to move Gray and will take whatever is the most attractive offer for him. However, the market won't allow him to be any type bargain buy.

[monty57]

I wouldn't "get into a bidding war." I'd just figure out what I'd be willing to pay and not go over that. If another team decides to pay what Stearns feels to be too much for Quintana, or if the Sox just don't feel that our best offer is enough, then we don't get him.

 

Brinson is an awfully good prospect who is major league ready. If him along with some lesser prospects isn't enough, then I probably don't want to make the trade. The only reason I'd consider trading him is the abundance of outfielders in our system and the fact that we could probably trade Quintana again in a year or two and get back some prospects at that time.

[FVBrewerFan]

Once again, which of these players is really the deal breaker in my proposed Gray offer?

 

OF Corey Ray

MI Mauricio Dubon

OF Trent Clark

RHP Marcos Diplan

 

All of them or none of them could become special MLB players, or even place-holders. But that's why you need as much talent as possible in the system, because you just don't know how many pan out, and who may be special.

 

I'm not a big Ray fan, but that's not to say he can't break out. I want to keep all of them and see how they develop. There will be a point in this process where a deal like this makes sense, puts them over the top. All this trade would do this year is make them marginally better, but still not as good as the big dogs.

[tmwiese55]

"There will be a point in this process where a deal like this makes sense, puts them over the top. All this trade would do this year is make them marginally better, but still not as good as the big dogs."

 

While I do agree that you're correct. Baseball is the biggest sport where in the postseason anything can happen and the best team doesn't always win so i see the logic in 'going for it'. Especially for a franchise with 2 playoff appearances and one series win in 30 years to make the most of any opportunities you get. I suppose NFL could make an argument, but I'd go with MLB. Obviously NBA is the opposite where the best team almost always wins. Think of all the Wild Cards who've won recently. All the Phils years with those aces and they didn't make the WS (they won it before they got all of them if I remember correctly). Dodgers haven't made it inspite of Kershaw/Greinke for several years. Cards winning in 2011. KC winning basically all on bullpen. There's countless examples.

[FVBrewerFan]

Yes, countless examples where the best team didn't win. But can't think of a case where the "worst" team won it all. I'm sure it's happened, but it's got be extremely rare. That doesn't mean you just give up, but I wouldn't trade away top prospects. If this team is magical enough to beat (for example) the Nats, Dodgers, and Astros to win the WS, then they're magical enough to do that with Quintana.

 

I get why some of you really want to go for it this year, and I don't think you're wrong. Or that I'm right. Just a preference, and difference of opinion on how to deal with this unforeseen situation we're in.

[A Swing and A Drive]

I get why some of you really want to go for it this year, and I don't think you're wrong. Or that I'm right. Just a preference, and difference of opinion on how to deal with this unforeseen situation we're in.

 

It's refreshing for someone to remind us that there is no right or wrong, simply a difference of opinion.

 

A month ago, I myself was an advocate of this being not the right time in the re-build to make any type of win-now trades. However, the Brewers going 8-2 in their last 10 games, whopping the Cubs in Wrigley last Thursday, being one blown save away from sweeping the Yankees in New York, and the Brewers having a 5.5 NL Central cushion at the All-Star break has made me a believer in the magic of this year's team.

 

Call it Brewer fever if you must, but I think standing pat with our current roster this season would be a missed opportunity.

[paul253]

The thing about trading for Quintana or Gray is that it doesn't limit you to a one or two year window. Both are controllable for three years after this so they can be part of the future. And the salaries are more than reasonable. So while I totally agree that we shouldn't tear down what we've built up I do actually think we can make the trade without doing that. The only untouchable I see is Brinson. And I wouldn't trade more than one of Hader, Ortiz and Woodruff. Even then I think we have more than enough to get either if we wanted. My preference is Quintana and I think with one of Hader, Ortiz and Woodruff plus either Ray or Phillips plus two other pieces and I think we can get it done.

 

If we do this though we also need to add a bullpen arm. Preferably one that is signed thru at least next year. All of our pieces will be back next year and we can add Brinson in CF and keep Broxton as insurance for Braun.

 

I think it's a win win. I'd go for it.

[yoshii8]

I'd be pretty thrilled to get either one of these guys, although I have no doubt the price will be steep.

[brewerfan82]

Yes, countless examples where the best team didn't win. But can't think of a case where the "worst" team won it all. I'm sure it's happened, but it's got be extremely rare.

2014 Giants, 2011 Cardinals, 2006 Cardinals, and 2000 Yankees all won with the worst record heading into the playoffs.

[MilwaukeeBeers]

Since Braun looks to be a Brewer for life, we have an excess of OF. As much as I like Brinson, and as much as I like stockpiling prospects, I wouldn't mind seeing a package for Quintana built around Brinson if that means we would have to give up less pitching in the deal.

 

We'd get Quintana (I believe) through the 2020 season. We'd probably use him the rest of this season, and to open next year. If we were still winning, we'd keep him. If this season is an anomaly, and we're not in the race next year, we trade him away for similar talent to what we'd give up this year. Only, we clear up a little of the logjam at OF we currently have, and hopefully get top talent at a position of greater need.

 

I agree with others that Gray should only be in the same conversation as Quintana if it is: "The Brewers would give up top talent for Qunitana. If they can't land Quintana, they would give up significantly less talent for Gray."

NO! Let me preface this by saying I don't mind using Brinson as a trade chip for the RIGHT PIECE. Q is solid but doesn't move the needle enough for the price it will take to acquire him. He's also been inconsistent, much rather have more of a sure thing if I'm dealing Brinson. FWIW I talked to someone connected that puts Brinson in his top 5 in all of baseball. Feels like he could be a legit 30/30 candidate, and that his pitch recognition has improved. Still some swing and miss, but he was "very encouraged by the strides he's made."

 

You make room in a crowded OF for a talent like Brinson.

[tmwiese55]

Yea i'm still on the don't go crazy side of things, but I certainly see the logic of it. So I'm not going to stomp my feet if they do maybe give up more than I'd prefer. My point was I bet the last 10 games have changed their views a bit. being essentially tied right now is much different than 5.5 games and the Cubs look like a shell of themselves. As this report shows, they're doing their homework and they should be. Our 10 games after the break are vs Phil, Pit, Phi. Obviously not good teams, win 7 or 8 while the Cubs and Cards win 4-5 and all of a sudden you have an 8-9 game lead on July 23. If the reverse happens, then go back to what we were all thinking a month ago

 

Big thing for me is with Broxton/Braun pretty much entrenched at two OF spots for the next 3-4 years it's creating a clear spot to trade from. At least one of Broxton, Brinson, Phillips is tradeable and should have pretty good value. For me I'd prefer keeping Brinson over the other two. So Phillips, a lower level OF like Ray should be good starting points to conversations. Maybe Quintana's price is just too high and you end up with Brad Hand instead for obviously much less than Quintana. I think the SPs will end up too much but one or two solid bullpen additions could be critical.

 

Or even a Hellickson type guy who will likely cost almost nothing in terms of prospects could be a depth option to add. I know he's been poor this year, but right now our 5th spot is hurt. And Davies has been blah, can we really trust Garza and Guerra? Might not hurt to grab someone as insurance for depth in the rotation. Another bullpen guy I've not seen mentioned is Robertson from White Sox. He's so financially expensive that he shouldn't cost any prospects of significance, you're doing them a favor by taking on the money. With our low payroll, moves like that might be the 'happy medium' type route we should go. Spend dollars rather than prospects. But seemingly one of Brinson/Phillips/Broxton looks like a prime trade candidate just because there's nowhere to play them

[brwrsfan]

Yea i'm still on the don't go crazy side of things, but I certainly see the logic of it. So I'm not going to stomp my feet if they do maybe give up more than I'd prefer. My point was I bet the last 10 games have changed their views a bit. being essentially tied right now is much different than 5.5 games and the Cubs look like a shell of themselves. As this report shows, they're doing their homework and they should be. Our 10 games after the break are vs Phil, Pit, Phi. Obviously not good teams, win 7 or 8 while the Cubs and Cards win 4-5 and all of a sudden you have an 8-9 game lead on July 23. If the reverse happens, then go back to what we were all thinking a month ago

 

Big thing for me is with Broxton/Braun pretty much entrenched at two OF spots for the next 3-4 years it's creating a clear spot to trade from. At least one of Broxton, Brinson, Phillips is tradeable and should have pretty good value. For me I'd prefer keeping Brinson over the other two. So Phillips, a lower level OF like Ray should be good starting points to conversations. Maybe Quintana's price is just too high and you end up with Brad Hand instead for obviously much less than Quintana. I think the SPs will end up too much but one or two solid bullpen additions could be critical.

 

Or even a Hellickson type guy who will likely cost almost nothing in terms of prospects could be a depth option to add. I know he's been poor this year, but right now our 5th spot is hurt. And Davies has been blah, can we really trust Garza and Guerra? Might not hurt to grab someone as insurance for depth in the rotation. Another bullpen guy I've not seen mentioned is Robertson from White Sox. He's so financially expensive that he shouldn't cost any prospects of significance, you're doing them a favor by taking on the money. With our low payroll, moves like that might be the 'happy medium' type route we should go. Spend dollars rather than prospects. But seemingly one of Brinson/Phillips/Broxton looks like a prime trade candidate just because there's nowhere to play them

 

Agree 100% on the first part.

 

The Brewers have about 15 games before the trade deadline. A LOT can happen in those games. 5.5 game lead is great, but it's not insurmountable by any means. Highly unlikely we make a big move in the next two weeks. I think we'll see where we're at come the end of July and make a decision in the last couple of days.

[bill hAll Star]

One minor point on that "next 15 games" item: I think the Pirates are going to be the team that chases us down the stretch. The Cards/Cubs/Pirates are all about equally likely at this point, but I think with Marte coming back and the Pirates getting their pitching back under wraps, they're going to make a push and are not a "bad" team that we'll be facing.

 

That series with the Pirates will be huge in trying to bury them.

[tmwiese55]

I see your point. Getting Tailon back improves their rotation, add in the McCutchen revival and Marte and they could be a sleeper. But as of now they're 4th place and 5 below and their rotations is not impressive. Like you said though, if they get 3/4 from us or something it's much different than us getting 3/4. But like I said in my thing, that will likely lead to the second scenario where we temper expectations back down to what they were a month or so back.

[bill hAll Star]

Yeah, I think Kuhl and Williams are better than the numbers show. Throw more elite defense in there behind them and they can make a run. Polanco is also finally coming around.

[wallus]

Something that has been pointed out but not rebutted by the OP.... Gray hasn't been that good.

[brewmann04]

I really dont think DS is going to wheel a deal for a Starting Pitcher. He is not going to blow up what he has created here. But he has put together a lot of surplus of Middle INF's and outfielders that he could pull something off