Brewers prepared to buy, doing background work on Gray and Quintana

[markedman5]

Lol at this

 

[Brewcrewin07]

Lol at this

 

 

I mean, there's just no way they'll get that much from anyone...But for arguments sake..let's say the brewers were willing to give that up..You are talking about a young Pitcher that is under control for another 2 years, and you could possibly sign him long term. As valued as pitching is..Even though that package should be able to get you a #1 starter(better then either of these two), IF you had to give that up...I can think of a lot worse situations to give those players up in then for a young controllable Pitcher

[A Swing and A Drive]

I think Quintana will bring in a package similar to Brinson, Hader and Phillips.

 

The cost for Gray should be a little be less, but not a whole lot less.

[markedman5]

Brewers aren't giving that up.

 

Stay the course.....make minor deals if you can but keep the core together

[Brewcrewin07]

Brewers aren't giving that up.

 

Stay the course.....make minor deals if you can but keep the core together

 

I don't want to see them give up the farm(unless it's worth it), but the reality is...they are just prospects..who knows what they will actually become?? So let's say they see the window as being 2 years from now...well, what if that window never comes because the prospects you thought would be ready...aren't?? You have a chance to make the playoffs THIS year..the farm system is deep, you may not have another chance like this in who knows how long..I say go out and get Gray or Quintana or someone else who you deem the price to be reasonable for and go for it..seize the momentum now. Tomorrow is promised to no one.

[KCBrewerfan34]

I think Quintana will bring in a package similar to Brinson, Hader and Phillips.

 

The cost for Gray should be a little be less, but not a whole lot less.

 

 

NO way do you give up that for Quintana. I'm standing pat or looking for bullpen. Burnes is coming on fast.

[JosephC]

It's too bad that the rumor threw both Quintana and Gray's name in there because I don't see the two pitchers as being nearly equivalent.

 

Average WAR value from Fangraphs and Baseball Reference:

 

Quintana:

2014 = 4.3

2015 = 4.4

2016 = 4.95

2017 = 1.5 (so far)

 

Gray:

2014 = 3.15

2015 = 4.75

2016 = 0.1

2017 = 1.3 (so far)

 

Three year average from 2014-2016 has Quintana as a 4.55 WAR player and Gray a 2.67 WAR player, nearly a 2 win difference per season. Even though Quintana is the player that's supposed to be stuck in a mediocre season, his average WAR value between the two sites still is better than Gray's. I will point out that Baseball Reference does give Gray a slight advantage (1.1 versus 1.0) and I consider the Baseball Reference model to be better when evaluating starting pitching. Fangraphs has Quintana at 2.0 WAR and Gray at 1.5 WAR.

 

The thing that is the most troublesome for me when looking at the two is that Gray is 5-10, 190 and had that 0.1 WAR season last year. That is flat out scary and really hard to ignore.

 

Obviously Quintana isn't the biggest pitcher out there but he still has plenty more size than Gray. Just throwing this out there, Tim Lincecum had his first big drop-off at his age 28 season and was pretty much completely finished when he was 30. Gray's age 28 season will be next year.

 

Not to mention that Quintana would be controlled for 3.5 seasons while Gray is only controlled for 2.5 seasons. And Quintana's contract is not only at a bargain rate, but if a catastrophic injury were to occur the team could buy it's way out of the last two years for very little money.

 

All that considered, I think Quintana easily holds twice at much value as Gray.

[A Swing and A Drive]

And again, the real "cost" of Quintana or Gray would be considerably less in the long run if we simply rented them for a calendar year.

 

We can turn around and trade them next July for a similar haul to what we may give up.

 

If we are contending again next year then great, we roll with our SP still with team control left.

[MrTPlush]

What if we rented Quintana and traded Quintana in the winter? Trade away prospects that are more expendable(say Ray/Dubon/Diaz/etc.) and then trade Quintana in the offseason for something we need more like pitching. We then replace Quintana with a FA signing because we have lots of payroll room. MindBlown

 

*turns off MLB: The Show*

[bigred]

DS, PLEASE don't offer a trade package like that unless it would be for Kershaw! Trade for a couple bullpen arms (preferably a LH and RH), maybe a mid-level type starter, so the core prospects in the minors can stay together. I think he'll know better to give those 3 up for either of those pitchers

[A Swing and A Drive]

Brinson, Hader and Phillips is really worth Clayton Kershaw in some Brewer fans minds?

 

So let me get this straight...

 

A similar package of players that we got one year ago (Brinson, Ortiz and Cordell) for one and a half years of Jonathan Lucroy is now as valuable as the best Pitcher of this generation and a sure fire hall of famer?

 

Please pass whatever you fellas are smokin'

[KCBrewerfan34]

Brinson, Hader and Phillips is really worth Clayton Kershaw in some Brewer fans minds?

 

So let me get this straight...

 

A similar package of players that we got one year ago (Brinson, Ortiz and Cordell) for one and a half years of Jonathan Lucroy is now as valuable as the best Pitcher of this generation and a sure fire hall of famer?

 

Please pass whatever you fellas are smokin'

 

 

Just because we fleeced Texas doesn't have anything to do with the value of our minor leaguers, thank goodness DS doesn't subscribe to your theory. Let me ask you 1 question, you propose we empty out the minors for Gray, what happens if he gets hurt or is ineffective (like this year)?

[HighHeat19]

Hasn't Hader been part of this winning process??? Isn't Woodruff expected to contribute to this possible playoff team??? Then why would anyone consider trading them now?!?!

 

Are we not looking to trade for s SP with controllable years??? Why? So we can win in the next few years. Then it would make no sense to trade away Ortiz either as he is supposed to part of the winning process that would coincide with whomever we trade for at the deadline.

 

Stearns has made it known that this team will have a sustainable farm system and remain competitive year in and year out. Trading the one thing your short on for short term pitching makes little sense. I don't see Hader or Ortiz going anywhere.

 

I think Stearns knows what teams value in trades and has been extremely smart in the selection of his toolsy, multi position players and middle infield. He is fully aware that these players have higher value and has stocked up on them for such purposes. I truly feel that Corey Ray would be the headliner of any of these trades, and possibly Phillips but you will not see the Brinson, Hader or Ortiz in any offer.

 

If I'm giving up my top 3-5 prospects it better be for a DeGrom or a Darvish and not a guy who has been injured, smallish and has pitched in a huge pitchers park. Or a pitcher who has had so-so numbers in Quintana.

 

Stearns has been brilliant with his moves and I would truly trust any moves he makes going forward. I think the whole "Brewers have checked in on Quintana and Gray" has been just to stir the pot and bring in more teams to let them know where willing to buy.

[Humans Need Water]

Brinson/Hader/Phillips is absolutely what I'd expect to give up for Quintana. For Gray....no way I'd even consider that. Stearns isn't going to rent for a calendar year then flip to recoup lost prospects. Far too much uncertainty. Focus on shoring up the pen.

 

2018 I'd hope to have Braun, Brinson, Santana, Phillips in the OF - Shaw, Arcia, Villar, Thames in IF - Aguilar, Perez, Vogt, (maybe Dubon? as Sogard is a FA) as bench. Nelson, Chase, Guerra, Davies, Hader, Woodruff to start the year with Burnes up at some point. Get the "best of the best" of our prospects up to the MLB level. At that point (2018 deadline or before 2019) you then trade your next tier of Top 100 labeled prospects for MLB help to build around all this young, controlled talent. There are current MLB guys that will eventually get pushed out and traded to help replenish the system as well as help the MLB team (ie Nelson, Chase, Guerra, Garza, Broxton, Perez, Villar, etc). This is why I don't trade Brinson/Hader/Phillips/Woodruff right now because we might have to give up 3 of them for one arm for 2-3yrs (and if there's an injury or regression then what was the point? Just to take a chance? Wouldn't be a very calculated decision for a Harvard man). Let them get up then trade the next tier of prospects and build around them.

[Humans Need Water]

Brinson, Hader and Phillips is really worth Clayton Kershaw in some Brewer fans minds?

 

So let me get this straight...

 

A similar package of players that we got one year ago (Brinson, Ortiz and Cordell) for one and a half years of Jonathan Lucroy is now as valuable as the best Pitcher of this generation and a sure fire hall of famer?

 

Please pass whatever you fellas are smokin'

Brinson, Hader, Phillips is easily superior to Brinson, Ortiz, Cordell. The former doesn't get Kershaw, not even close. But giving that up for Quintana, or even worse - Gray, would be a horrendous decision. I can't stress enough how horrendous and idiotic that would be

[FVBrewerFan]

This team is on track to be the next Houston. One sure way to blow up that trajectory? Trade 3 top prospects for a good, not great, LHP. Make that move, and it improves odds for this year, sure. But it still doesn't make them as good as the Dodgers or Nats. Not to mention Houston if they made it that far.

 

So with or without Quintana, winning the WS this year would require a likely upse t in three series. I will enjoy this improbable ride as long as it lasts, but wait for a year when a big trade actually puts them over the top. Similar to what KC did, and the Cubs with Chapman last year.

[HighHeat19]

This team is on track to be the next Houston. One sure way to blow up that trajectory? Trade 3 top prospects for a good, not great, LHP. Make that move, and it improves odds for this year, sure. But it still doesn't make them as good as the Dodgers or Nats. Not to mention Houston if they made it that far.

 

So with or without Quintana, winning the WS this year would require a likely upse t in three series. I will enjoy this improbable ride as long as it lasts, but wait for a year when a big trade actually puts them over the top. Similar to what KC did, and the Cubs with Chapman last year.

 

Bingo!!!

 

Well Said.

[DocLuna7]

Fair enough then...

 

Brewers get:

RHP Sonny Gray

 

A's get:

OF Corey Ray

RHP Brandon Woodruff

OF Monte Harrison

 

Who says no?

 

Maybe add in RHP Taylor Jungmann in case that's who they really wanted in 2011 draft but WE stole him RIGHT FROM UNDER THEM.

 

I most definitely say no. I do not understand the overhyping of Sonny Gray. This is the same guy who has been awful the past two seasons and was injured right?

[3and2Fastball]

You have to understand the competition for Quintana. A lot of teams are going to want him. It will probably take Brinson, Dubon, Woodruff to make it happen

[HighHeat19]

No pitching going back in any trade.

 

No, No, No, No, No...................etc.

[A Swing and A Drive]

Brewer fans unwilling to trade pitching prospects would have likely deemed Wily Peralta an "untouchable" pitching prospect not long ago.

[superfly]

Brewer fans unwilling to trade pitching prospects would have likely deemed Wily Peralta an "untouchable" pitching prospect not long ago.

 

They did. Hader is untouchable for me but anybody else is fair game. We turn out a good one every so often but most all don't live up to the hype.

[DocLuna7]

Brewer fans unwilling to trade pitching prospects would have likely deemed Wily Peralta an "untouchable" pitching prospect not long ago.

 

I for one am not opposed to trading any of our prospects but am most definitely opposed to trading our prospects for mediocre talents like Gray who do nothing to put us over the top.

[paul253]

Brewer fans unwilling to trade pitching prospects would have likely deemed Wily Peralta an "untouchable" pitching prospect not long ago

 

Even if these guys don't reach their ceilings or turn into all stars developing your own pitching saves a ton of money. Up until this season Peralta wasn't all that bad so if youre going to use him as an example you have to decide if his time here was worth more or less than a half season of whoever it is you were going to trade him for 8 years ago.

 

We still have very few quality pitching prospects and while trading for guys like Quintana or Gray, who have multiple years of control, won't hurt as much as trading for a half season rental we still need our own guys to fill the rotation so we can spend our money elsewhere.

 

For Quintana or Gray (preferrably Quintana) Id only include Hader, Ortiz or Woodruff but not more than one. The rest of the package would have to help ease our crowded outfield situation, though Brinson to me is untouchable as I see him as having a chance to be a perennial all star. So my best offer for Quintana would be: Woodruff/Hader/Ortiz + Ray/Phillips + 2 lesser guys (Lopez/Cordell/Medeiros/Cooper/Ponce/Orimoloye/etc). For Gray I offer less.

[nate82]

I really do not get why some here like Gray if he were on the Brewers last year most would be calling for him to be DFA'd or not to offer him arbitration after this year. Gray is starting to look like a #3 at best but is probably more along the lines of a #4 or #5 type starter going forward.

 

He is definitely not worth what the A's will be asking for. I hope DS stays away from the Gray and Quintana market as teams are going to overpay for what they are getting. If the Brewers are going to give up premium prospects they better be getting back a top of the rotation arm similar to the Greinke and Sabathia trades.

 

Gray is not a Sabathia or even a Greinke level of talent. At best Gray is a Marcum level of talent.