Brewers prepared to buy, doing background work on Gray and Quintana

[FVBrewerFan]

I don't think top 100 lists mean anything, but stats do. A lot of our top prospects have mediocre numbers at best. That's not the whole story for any prospect, but it factors in.

 

Santana, Phillips, Brinson, Diaz, Dubon, etc. all had big time production when we traded for them. Nothing sexy about a .235 hitter.

[Montezuma]

I say do absolutely nothing... Why upset the apple cart. Stand pat and enjoy the ride.

[Humans Need Water]

I don't think top 100 lists mean anything, but stats do. A lot of our top prospects have mediocre numbers at best. That's not the whole story for any prospect, but it factors in.

 

Santana, Phillips, Brinson, Diaz, Dubon, etc. all had big time production when we traded for them. Nothing sexy about a .235 hitter.

Ian Happ, at 20yrs old and 1.4yrs young for level in A ball, slashed 241/315/763 in almost 40 games then after the following season hit 236 with 778 OPS in the AZFL against top competition. I'll use Diaz for example this year, I'm not going to say he's disappointing when he's hitting in a tough environment and had a 21 game stretch (June) that was really, really bad. Outside of that stretch he's hitting 263/343/812 as a 2b being 1.5yrs young for level. It's about development. A player's numbers can say 100/200/300 but they could be consistently having good ABs and that doesn't show up in the box scores. That's what matters most in the minors.

[Jenkins5]

Sadly my guess is we will lose

 

1 top OF

Brinson Phillips or Cordell(Ray depending on pitcher involved)

 

1 Top SP

Hader, Woodruff, Burns, Ortiz

 

1 high ceiling A baller

Diplan, Peralta (even though promoted), Clark, Harrison, Diaz, Erceg, Ponce, Bickford or Gatewood

 

One wildcard player with high ceiling OR wildcard change of scenery

Demi O, Mallin, Herrera, Lujano, and etc

 

Or

Lopez, Coulter, T. Taylor

 

My guess

Phillips, Woodruff, Peralta, and Demi O type package could get it done.

 

I know most of you are all for cleaning house for Q or Sonny but to me.... I say stay pat.

 

Two of Braun, Santana, Broxton, Brinson, Phillips, and Cordell will need to go by next season. With how much they rotate, you can keep 4 and get them all starter number of ABs. Brewers have to decide how they want to approach that and if they are ready now. Since Cordell can't play CF well and Brewers haven't gave him work at 3b & 1b so he is easy choice. Last one is tough.

 

I much prefer Woodruff & Hader get real looks & Burnes looks very promising.

 

They could really use Broxton now... that may also ease pain of of the pitchers we give up. Broxton Is proven so you would be putting a lot of hope in Brinson to click & take off

[Jenkins5]

I say do absolutely nothing... Why upset the apple cart. Stand pat and enjoy the ride.

 

Favorite post on any trade discussion!!! Finish season, see how it all shakes out. What we have in guys like Woodruff. Go into off season making team stronger & upgrading where needed. I like to see more than 3 months of good baseball before calling us contenders & selling off the farm this early in rebuild. I think there are expendable guys we can afford to trade, guys I'd like to see progress & build more value, and many that I am not willing to give up yet.

 

By October, we will have much more realistic view of where we are.... let's not jump gun yet.

[clancyphile]

I say do absolutely nothing... Why upset the apple cart. Stand pat and enjoy the ride.

 

To get Quintana or Gray without breaking the bank is something I am all for.

 

But we don't break the bank.

 

I'm thinking Ray, Ortiz, Brinson, and Lara for Gray and one of A.J. Puk or Grant Holmes.

[FVBrewerFan]

I don't think top 100 lists mean anything, but stats do. A lot of our top prospects have mediocre numbers at best. That's not the whole story for any prospect, but it factors in.

 

Santana, Phillips, Brinson, Diaz, Dubon, etc. all had big time production when we traded for them. Nothing sexy about a .235 hitter.

Ian Happ, at 20yrs old and 1.4yrs young for level in A ball, slashed 241/315/763 in almost 40 games then after the following season hit 236 with 778 OPS in the AZFL against top competition. I'll use Diaz for example this year, I'm not going to say he's disappointing when he's hitting in a tough environment and had a 21 game stretch (June) that was really, really bad. Outside of that stretch he's hitting 263/343/812 as a 2b being 1.5yrs young for level. It's about development. A player's numbers can say 100/200/300 but they could be consistently having good ABs and that doesn't show up in the box scores. That's what matters most in the minors.

 

Sure, but thats not my point. Look at every bat the Brewers have traded for the last couple years. Big numbers. When you have competition for these pitchers, slash lines matter. Again, not the whole story, but a factor.

[MrTPlush]

I say do absolutely nothing... Why upset the apple cart. Stand pat and enjoy the ride.

 

Cause you are assuming the future with the apple cart will be much better. People say it is too soon, but what if this becomes a decent shot? What if Santana isn't for real? What if Shaw is the next Villar? What if Nelson/Anderson go back to mediocre pitchers next year? Then next year we are a 75 win team and then then we fight with .500 the next...

 

If you have a shot at the division you better make an effort to improve your team. Maybe you don't think we should trade major pieces for a Quintana, but a back end starter or bullpen arm is just as important for a team. The Cubs looked set up for many great teams and the season after winning it all they are flirting with a <.500 record at the deadline.

 

People are already overly attached to our farm system when we have made a competitive team hardly touching it. We have plucked just a few players for from it and have 20+ legit prospects sitting down there. I doubt this is our best team we will have in our competitive window, but I'm not sure how many chances we will get to win the division and this is a good shot.

[Humans Need Water]

I don't think top 100 lists mean anything, but stats do. A lot of our top prospects have mediocre numbers at best. That's not the whole story for any prospect, but it factors in.

 

Santana, Phillips, Brinson, Diaz, Dubon, etc. all had big time production when we traded for them. Nothing sexy about a .235 hitter.

Ian Happ, at 20yrs old and 1.4yrs young for level in A ball, slashed 241/315/763 in almost 40 games then after the following season hit 236 with 778 OPS in the AZFL against top competition. I'll use Diaz for example this year, I'm not going to say he's disappointing when he's hitting in a tough environment and had a 21 game stretch (June) that was really, really bad. Outside of that stretch he's hitting 263/343/812 as a 2b being 1.5yrs young for level. It's about development. A player's numbers can say 100/200/300 but they could be consistently having good ABs and that doesn't show up in the box scores. That's what matters most in the minors.

 

Sure, but thats not my point. Look at every bat the Brewers have traded for the last couple years. Big numbers. When you have competition for these pitchers, slash lines matter. Again, not the whole story, but a factor.

I understand what you're saying and those would be the prospects that would go for a Quintana trade (Brinson, Hader/Woodruff types). The players we gave up in those other trades you mentioned were more consistent than a Sonny Gray. Lucroy was an AS catcher and constant top 5 performer at his position, Gomez was an AS/GG CF, Thornburg was a beast in his 2 months closer stint and good prior to that (relievers at the deadline bring absurd deals though). Ray and Erceg have 120 games and Clark 130 games as professionals in full season ball. They still carry plenty of value.

[Jenkins5]

Let us not forget Gray was not good last year and has pitched better last 10 or so starts but has been far from ace level. Q stock has really dropped this season. He as well has been better last 10 starts or so but again far from dominant.... we aren't targeting guys who are pitching like aces & dominating. They have potential to & have showed potential to do so, however, that hasn't been them consistently this season. We are not getting a guy who is coming out every 5th night right now expected to dominate. You are really trading away your system for Jimmy Nelson. I don't think adding either and giving up 3-4 top prospects really makes us stronger as a whole.

 

I'd give up the farm for Archer if he was available because each time he is on mound....you know he will have you right there to win & he's controlled. He is a difference maker consistently! Quintana has not been that impressive this year. I don't even know if Gray is top pitcher on the As staff. Pretty darn good lefty sitting right there as well in Sean Manaea. Why am I giving up the farm for guys you can't trust right now? Why we cleaning house for a guy who hasn't starred since 13'-14'?

 

All comes down to value. Are you going to get enough production from these guys to offset giving up 3-4 of your top prospects? I'm not high enough on either to say yes.

 

I could do Phillips, Ortiz, Ponce, and maybe a write off like Ty Taylor, or low level guy. I think that value is reasonable. If they want Brinson, Hader, Woodruff, and few others.... I don't even consider.

 

That is because Brinson is ahead of Phillips, I'm not as high on Ortiz as most, Ponce is solid but not can't miss... and write off or rookie baller is tolerable.

[Jenkins5]

Let us not forget Gray was not good last year and has pitched better last 10 or so starts but has been far from ace level. Q stock has really dropped this season. He as well has been better last 10 starts or so but again far from dominant.... we aren't targeting guys who are pitching like aces & dominating. They have potential to & have showed potential to do so, however, that hasn't been them consistently this season. We are not getting a guy who is coming out every 5th night right now expected to dominate. You are really trading away your system for Jimmy Nelson. I don't think adding either and giving up 3-4 top prospects really makes us stronger as a whole.

 

I'd give up the farm for Archer if he was available because each time he is on mound....you know he will have you right there to win & he's controlled. He is a difference maker consistently! Quintana has not been that impressive this year. I don't even know if Gray is top pitcher on the As staff. Pretty darn good lefty sitting right there as well in Sean Manaea. Why am I giving up the farm for guys you can't trust right now? Why we cleaning house for a guy who hasn't starred since 13'-14'?

 

All comes down to value. Are you going to get enough production from these guys to offset giving up 3-4 of your top prospects? I'm not high enough on either to say yes.

 

I could do Phillips, Ortiz, Ponce, and maybe a write off like Ty Taylor, or low level guy. I think that value is reasonable. If they want Brinson, Hader, Woodruff, and few others.... I don't even consider.

 

That is because Brinson is ahead of Phillips, I'm not as high on Ortiz as most, Ponce is solid but not can't miss... and write off or rookie baller is tolerable.

[TURBO]

Don't forget, if the Cubs are within sniffing distance of us at the deadline, they WILL be making moves too. It isn't like we are the only ones looking to improve (if that is actually the case), the Cubs are going to be trying to catch us, and in doing so, will be heavy players as well. They may have their eyes on the same players as us.

 

I say stand pat, stay on course, and continue to build for the future.

[paul253]

I hang onto Brinson Woodruff and Ortiz. If we can get Quintana for a package that doesn't include any of them I'd be ok with it. Center it around Ray and Hader and add in two more lower tier guys. Maybe Medeiros or Lopez and maybe Cordell or Orimoloye.

 

Quintana for Ray, Hader Medeiros and Cordell? Too much? Not enough?

[Boomer5]

Hader and Brinson would be untouchable for me unless we can get a truly elite guy back for 1 1/2 years. Woodruff would be close too.

 

Ray and Clark still have first round pedigrees so I'd think they'd have some value.

[SRB]

I hang onto Brinson Woodruff and Ortiz. If we can get Quintana for a package that doesn't include any of them I'd be ok with it. Center it around Ray and Hader and add in two more lower tier guys. Maybe Medeiros or Lopez and maybe Cordell or Orimoloye.

 

Quintana for Ray, Hader Medeiros and Cordell? Too much? Not enough?

 

I wouldn't give up Hader for Quintana, who has not looked that great this season. Are there no legit #1/2 rentals available this season?

[nate82]

I would trade Hader or Brinson for Cole but not for Quintana or Gray. The most I would offer for Gray would be Phillips and Kirby. If that doesn't get it done I walk away.

[FVBrewerFan]

If teams were smart, Cooper would have a lot more value. Blocked at 1b just like Aguilar was. Ray, Cooper, Wren, Cordell would be a really nice haul. Other than Ray, not top prospects but solid players.

[Humans Need Water]

I say do absolutely nothing... Why upset the apple cart. Stand pat and enjoy the ride.

 

Cause you are assuming the future with the apple cart will be much better. People say it is too soon, but what if this becomes a decent shot? What if Santana isn't for real? What if Shaw is the next Villar? What if Nelson/Anderson go back to mediocre pitchers next year? Then next year we are a 75 win team and then then we fight with .500 the next...

 

If you have a shot at the division you better make an effort to improve your team. Maybe you don't think we should trade major pieces for a Quintana, but a back end starter or bullpen arm is just as important for a team. The Cubs looked set up for many great teams and the season after winning it all they are flirting with a <.500 record at the deadline.

 

People are already overly attached to our farm system when we have made a competitive team hardly touching it. We have plucked just a few players for from it and have 20+ legit prospects sitting down there. I doubt this is our best team we will have in our competitive window, but I'm not sure how many chances we will get to win the division and this is a good shot.

I see zero indicators that Santana isn't for real or that Shaw is a different player (he's been the same guy since he came up outside of the 2 months after Hill was acquired and that's easily explained away). I've always been a big Santana guy; can flat out hit. Prior to 2016 Villar did nothing that would indicate those were the numbers he'd put up across the board. Apples and oranges but I get your point. I agree with you on Nelson and Chase. It's definitely not guaranteed they're going to perform at this level again next year or beyond. But for next year I don't think you factored in Hader/Woodruff entering the rotation (potentially Burnes by the end of next season) or Brinson starting in CF over Broxton or Villar bouncing back being much improved upon this season or our pen being much better in the first half next year vs this year, etc. There's a lot of other variables to factor in.

 

I want nothing to do with Quintana at this point in time. Fast forward 2yrs and if we still have the same type of talent in the farm system then I'd make this move. It doesn't make sense right now as the team doesn't "need" a rotation arm with Woodruff as the top internal option ready to go and us not even getting the top prospects in place at the MLB level yet. They mentioned the additions of starters that led to playoff appearances in team history but this team's rotation is different. Other than 3-4 starts for a few players they've all been really solid. Prior to Greinke/Marcum in 2011 we had bad Bush/Parra/Cappy/Doug Davis eating up 2 rotation spots. In 2008 an awful Cappy/Vargas was replaced by (decent) Parra/CC (others mixed in). That's a massive difference in production both years and doesn't relate to this year's team.

 

I'd prefer the Brewers just focus on 1-2 solid, not great, pen arms as that doesn't give up any elite talent. If they're ready to move full time to Brinson in CF then Broxton by himself or packaged could bring back a solid pen arm with control. Other prospects I think we should dangle are Ponce, Gatewood, Harrison, Lopez, Cooper

[superfly]

Instead of Volquez, I wonder if the Marlins would be willing to trade Dan Straily instead? He's controlled through 2020 and I'm sure they already regret trading RHP Luis Castillo to the Reds for him. I'd be willing to trade a player like Brett Phillips for him, certainly.

 

I'm not sure how much the Marlins will need OFers, for whatever that's worth. Yelich may be having a down year but they've got 2 guaranteed OF for the next 5+ years and I'm sure they've got something in the system if Yelich isn't the 3rd.

 

I don't know their farm, but I wouldn't mind asking what the price would be on BOTH Straily and Yelich as a package. Now's the time to buy low on Yelich because he has elite bat potental IMO. I'd give Brinson up as well as others to lock down our entire OF for many years (Santana/Yelich/Braun)

[brewcrewdue80]

I say do absolutely nothing... Why upset the apple cart. Stand pat and enjoy the ride.

 

Cause you are assuming the future with the apple cart will be much better. People say it is too soon, but what if this becomes a decent shot? What if Santana isn't for real? What if Shaw is the next Villar? What if Nelson/Anderson go back to mediocre pitchers next year? Then next year we are a 75 win team and then then we fight with .500 the next...

 

If you have a shot at the division you better make an effort to improve your team. Maybe you don't think we should trade major pieces for a Quintana, but a back end starter or bullpen arm is just as important for a team. The Cubs looked set up for many great teams and the season after winning it all they are flirting with a <.500 record at the deadline.

 

People are already overly attached to our farm system when we have made a competitive team hardly touching it. We have plucked just a few players for from it and have 20+ legit prospects sitting down there. I doubt this is our best team we will have in our competitive window, but I'm not sure how many chances we will get to win the division and this is a good shot.

 

 

And part of the reason they are having trouble could be the bodies of Jorge Soler, Gleybor Torres, Billy Mckinney, and Dan Vogelbach were traded away for rentals. Kyle Schwarber being horrendous, and maybe it's that the pitchers are exactly who we thought they were. Take 16 and add 17 stats and there you are, what they really should have been in 16.

 

Now if we're dealing away some prospects for multiple years of control of a better player on the team, that's better than what the Cubs did.

 

At his moment the Brewers just moved to 49-40 on the season with Hader having a lights out performance. I hope Woodruff gets the ball 2 times before the deadline and performs as well as you'd expect, so the team can just continue on having improved the Bullpen via just Hader, and the Rotation with Woodruff. Remember this guy throws up to 98MPH. That alone is going to gas hitters early on if he has any kind of halfway decent 2nd pitch. There still are August Waiver deals that could happen should we need something towards the end of season.

 

It's getting really serious now as we hit 9games over .500. The ideas of non-wild cards has changed as we're at worst 5 games behind Arizona for 2nd best NL record and could be 4 if they lose tonight.

 

It really is lame that Woodruff had his injury vs. starting, because the show me period is going to be a far less sample, than it could have been. I'm mixed either way with making a move and standing pat. The team's SP prospects, I'd hate to lose unless you found a Kirby/Bickford form in a deal with Position prospects being the headliners. It's only the 7th, this is going to be nerve racking!

[A Swing and A Drive]

Our current offensive can hang with the best in baseball right now.

 

If Anderson didn't get hurt, I can see the argument of standing pat.

 

If not having full faith in Guerra and Davies and Garza being what they are, I think the Brewers would be very unwise to NOT add a starter via trade.

 

Woodruff could be a good pitcher in time, but as a rookie you have to expect some ups and downs at the MLB level.

 

Nothing against Woodruff, but I don't think he's the type of talent that takes the league by storm. I'd say his talent level is closer to that of a Jimmy Nelson-type starter and we all know how inconsistent he's been. I mean Nelson entered the Spring without a spot in our rotation even.

[trwi7]

If teams were smart, Cooper would have a lot more value. Blocked at 1b just like Aguilar was. Ray, Cooper, Wren, Cordell would be a really nice haul. Other than Ray, not top prospects but solid players.

 

Sorry but that's a nothing package.

[JosephC]

If teams were smart, Cooper would have a lot more value. Blocked at 1b just like Aguilar was. Ray, Cooper, Wren, Cordell would be a really nice haul. Other than Ray, not top prospects but solid players.

 

Sorry but that's a nothing package.

 

That package has surplus value:

 

I'd probably estimate it as follows:

Ray = 12 million

Cooper = 2 million

Wren = 2 million

Cordell = 7 million

 

Unfortunately that only gets about 1/4'th of the way to what it would require to land a pitcher like Quintana. It might be good enough to land a plus reliever plus a marginal back end starter on the last year of his deal, but that would probably be about it.

[LouisEly]

The White Sox and A's are going to ask teams to overpay for Gray and Quintana right now because they don't have to trade them for three weeks. They are assuming some injury risk but only about five starts worth.

 

Around the trading deadline the cost will go down, because if they are holding on to them past July 31st then they are assuming two more months of injury and performance risk and eating two months of value to another team.

 

What it will take to acquire those players now is more than what it will take on July 30th. And if it's too much, then you hang up the phone and ask the Giants about Samardzjia, or the Marlins about Straily, or the Mariners about Paxton, or the Tigers about Verlander, or the Phillies about Hellickson, or the Blue Jays about Happ...

[brewmann04]

DS will not blown up what he tried to build but he does have a surplus of OF and INF.