Baseball America Midseason Top 100 (MLB Pipeline Top 100 at Post #40)

[JDBrewCrew]

#16 Brinson

#43 Woodruff

#60 Hader

#66 Ortiz

 

http://www.baseballamerica.com/minors/2017-midseason-top-100-prospects-july-7/#QZRDEfX42yYXk0Qc.97

[JohnBriggs12]

Someone needs to introduce them to Corbin Burnes who even got a mention from Peter Gammons on Chicago sports radio this morning as "blowing through the minor league levels" and with the potential according to Gammons to help the Brewers THIS season. Hader 60? Apparently the witness protection system the Brewers have him stashed in is working.

[Mudville9]

Not that Ray is crushing the ball or anything, but for all the love he gets, I'm surprised he isn't in the Top 100

[leitermab07]

The brewers top 100 prospects prior to this season were:

Brinson - 27

Hader - 33

Ray - 42

Ortiz - 79

Woodruff - 82

Diaz - 93

 

big riser was Woodruff and the big drop was obviously Ray.

[adambr2]

I can't imagine that Burnes wouldn't be a top 50 prospect if he were in the Yankees or Red Sox systems and part of that hype train.

[CheezWizHed]

I'm a big Burnes fan, but he doesn't have great stuff. Great results, however. Prospect lists are going to lean to stuff over results.

[JohnBriggs12]

I'm a big Burnes fan, but he doesn't have great stuff. Great results, however. Prospect lists are going to lean to stuff over results.

 

3 plus pitches including according to BA pre 2016 draft scouting report: "low to mid 90's fastball, elite breaking ball, and a changeup that has been a weapon"

 

What more stuff would he need??? He's showed great command since turning pro, an ability to keep the ball on the ground, and a puny BAA of .181.

[CheezWizHed]

That same report also states he has three average or better than average pitches. "Elite" is the only word that might evoke a plus rating in that narrative.

 

The concern is that he might be dominating MiLB players, but the transition to MLB is a big one. And some things that trick MiLB players don't for MLB ones. Think about Mike Fier's success in the minors vs majors. I think Burnes' stuff has better chance to translate to the MLB level, but I'm not ready to say he will dominate that level as a TOR yet.

 

But having Burnes, Woodruff, Ortiz and Hader all coming along could make a nice rotation in the near future.

[CheezWizHed]

MLB ratings have Burnes at:

FB: 55

Slider: 50

CB: 50

Change: 45

 

Those might improve as they have him pretty underrated, but those aren't exactly plus ratings.

[Eye Black]

Looks like they included eight recently drafted players. I would guess that at some point down the road Keston Hiura passes a few of those guys.

 

#30 - Hunter Greene

#31 - MacKenzie Gore

#39 - Royce Lewis

#40 - Brendan McKay

#41 - Kyle Wright

#53 - Alex Faedo

#97 - Jordon Adell

#98 - Adam Haseley

 

And since that was fun, here are the players taken in the 2016 MLB Draft that are listed (let me know if I missed anyone)...

 

#9 - Nick Senzel

#21 - Cal Quantrill

#27 - A.J. Puk

#36 - Blake Rutherford

#46 - Mickey Moniak

#55 - Ian Anderson

#62 - Kyle Lewis

#77 - Riley Pint

#87 - Jason Groome

#79 - Matt Manning

#99 - Austin Hays

 

Probably worth noting that among the second list Orioles 2016 3rd rounder Austin Hays was the only non-1st round pick from last year that was included in the BA top 100 (unless I missed someone else).

[OnTheBlack]

I'm a big Burnes fan, but he doesn't have great stuff. Great results, however. Prospect lists are going to lean to stuff over results.

 

 

I don't know what you would define at great stuff, but I think his stuff is plenty good enough to be a top 100 prospect even if his results weren't as great as they have been.

 

From BA

http://www.baseballamerica.com/draft/draft-prospect-breakdown-corbin-burnes/

 

Last summer, Burnes pitched for Orleans of the Cape Cod League. He showed premium stuff in the summer, and established himself as a must-follow prospect in the amateur scouting community.

 

This spring, Burnes has shown the same low- to mid-90s fastball and elite breaking ball that catapulted him onto prospect lists, but his changeup has also been a weapon for him. On Friday afternoon, he induced swings-and-misses with all three pitches.

 

I think he was left on the lists simply because he wasn't drafted higher. Not that it really matters as you look back on these lists in 3 or 4 years and out of the top 20 there are a lot of hits, but as you get past that...it's almost like the draft. Just littered with guys who have never made an impact....so if he's 50th or 150....obviously it's of little consequence big picture.

[Greenleaf1]

I think if Burnes finishes the year strong and continues to lead the minors in ERA, we can talk about whether or not he deserves to be on the top 100.

 

For now, I'm enjoying the ride and letting myself dream and be cautiously optimistic knowing that a lot of reports indicate that his stuff doesn't match up to the elite results we've seen from him over the past calendar year. His numbers were damn good last year too and even the praise articles about Burnes mention how much he has improved over last year, so it's clear that he's able to make adjustments and his peripherals indicate that he probably has the ability to be an effective MLB starter, but there's a reason he was drafted in the 4th round: people don't think his stuff is good enough to be an "ace".

 

That said, Cody Bellinger was also drafted in the 4th round and that seems to be working out ok for the Dodgers. I'm not going to put a ceiling on Burnes' potential, and I do think that given his dominance this year that it's at least worth considering that he could be a #1/#2 in time. That jump from high A to AA is a big one, and Carolina is a pitcher-friendly park so the fact that he, if anything, got better in Biloxi is very promising (which may also be a pitcher-friendly park, I'm not sure), but I still do understand why one year's worth of results may not be enough to propel him to Top 100 heights.

 

A good comp here is Woodruff, who was similarly ranked in the 20-ish range on our prospect list (even lower than Burnes, I believe, at this time last year), then after an incredibly good year last year, he made it into SOME offseason top 100 lists but not all. After a solid start in AAA this year, he seems to be making all the lists. If Burnes can continue this run for the rest of the year (not easy for a guy who's going to pitch more innings this year than he has ever in his life), I think we can expect to see his name popping up during the offseason. But luckily, his placement on top 100 lists has absolutely no bearing on whether or not he will be a quality MLB player.

[CheezWizHed]

I'm a big Burnes fan, but he doesn't have great stuff. Great results, however. Prospect lists are going to lean to stuff over results.

 

 

I don't know what you would define at great stuff, but I think his stuff is plenty good enough to be a top 100 prospect even if his results weren't as great as they have been.

 

I don't define great stuff. The scouts do. I'm only replying to why he isn't on the list. Here is how his stuff is rated on MLB.com:

Fastball: 55 | Slider: 50 | Curveball: 50 | Changeup: 45 | Control: 50 | Overall: 45

 

Now, that was probably based off last year. And I've heard some reports that his curveball has improved greatly. So maybe his rating will improve too.

 

Or his success comes from having 4 good pitches and high intelligence on how to use them. There are many HOF pitchers that fit that bill. But prospect lists tend to look down on them because a high percentage of those guys fail at the MLB level (or fail to be a high end starter).

[WV Brew]

To that end, MiLB is listing Burnes as the early favorite for top starting pitcher in the Minors:

 

Link

[82brewcrew82]

His ERA may be marginally higher in Biloxi but everything else says he has been BETTER in Biloxi than he was in A+. If he keeps it up I don't see any way he stays out of the top 100.

[Greenleaf1]

He's in KLaw's top 50, for whatever that's worth.....

[leitermab07]

He's in KLaw's top 50, for whatever that's worth.....

 

With that, I have the espn Insider have access to Keith Laws prospect updates.

 

Brewers ranked in the top 50 for April and July as well as the top 100 he created in January

 

January 2017 ranking(top 100) - April Rankings update(Top 50) - July ranking update(Top 50)

 

Ray 34 - 27 - NR

Brinson 38 - 31 - 30

Diaz 41 - 30 - NR

Burnes - NR - NR - 38

Clark - 67 - NR - NR

Erceg - 70 - NR - NR

Hader - 71 - NR - NR

Ortiz - 79 - NR - NR

Woodruff - 100 - NR - NR

 

It will be interesting when MILB updates there top 100 but from the update ranking between BP, Law, and BA. It seems a lot of scouts are down on Ray. Keith Law was the biggest fan out of those three scout sites before and after the draft. Having Law drop Ray out of the top 50 says alot.

 

For people who don't have access, Burness is right behind Mckay (first rounder from Louisville by Atlanta) and right ahead of Gohara (ATL) and Triston Mckenzie (stud pitcher for the Indians). Seeing him ahead of Mckenzie puts a smile on my face because I know a lot of scouts love Mckenzie and myself view Mckenzie as a future TOR pitcher (Carolina has faced him twice these year and he dominated them both times).

[OnTheBlack]

I'm a big Burnes fan, but he doesn't have great stuff. Great results, however. Prospect lists are going to lean to stuff over results.

 

 

I don't know what you would define at great stuff, but I think his stuff is plenty good enough to be a top 100 prospect even if his results weren't as great as they have been.

 

I don't define great stuff. The scouts do. I'm only replying to why he isn't on the list. Here is how his stuff is rated on MLB.com:

Fastball: 55 | Slider: 50 | Curveball: 50 | Changeup: 45 | Control: 50 | Overall: 45

 

Now, that was probably based off last year. And I've heard some reports that his curveball has improved greatly. So maybe his rating will improve too.

 

Or his success comes from having 4 good pitches and high intelligence on how to use them. There are many HOF pitchers that fit that bill. But prospect lists tend to look down on them because a high percentage of those guys fail at the MLB level (or fail to be a high end starter).

 

It looks like those were the current grades from before this year. But I guess it's a matter of when you're going off of. I don't see many scouts saying he doesn't have great stuff right now.

 

In any event, given how few pitchers actually succeed in the big leagues...even with plus stuff(like Peralta) this just gives us another guy. Out of Hader, Ortiz, Woodruff, Burnes, Ponce..etc..etc..if we get a couple guys who can pitch on the front half of a rotation, we're good. Developing an ace is in large part luck. So maybe we'll get lucky.

[Boomer5]

He's in KLaw's top 50, for whatever that's worth.....

 

With that, I have the espn Insider have access to Keith Laws prospect updates.

 

Brewers ranked in the top 50 for April and July as well as the top 100 he created in January

 

January 2017 ranking(top 100) - April Rankings update(Top 50) - July ranking update(Top 50)

 

Ray 34 - 27 - NR

Brinson 38 - 31 - 30

Diaz 41 - 30 - NR

Burnes - NR - NR - 38

Clark - 67 - NR - NR

Erceg - 70 - NR - NR

Hader - 71 - NR - NR

Ortiz - 79 - NR - NR

Woodruff - 100 - NR - NR

 

It will be interesting when MILB updates there top 100 but from the update ranking between BP, Law, and BA. It seems a lot of scouts are down on Ray. Keith Law was the biggest fan out of those three scout sites before and after the draft. Having Law drop Ray out of the top 50 says alot.

 

For people who don't have access, Burness is right behind Mckay (first rounder from Louisville by Atlanta) and right ahead of Gohara (ATL) and Triston Mckenzie (stud pitcher for the Indians). Seeing him ahead of Mckenzie puts a smile on my face because I know a lot of scouts love Mckenzie and myself view Mckenzie as a future TOR pitcher (Carolina has faced him twice these year and he dominated them both times).

 

I don't know if that is Law and his "love" for the Brewers or reality but that is one sad state of affairs. Only Brinson and Burnes are up there. Maybe Hader is off because he is in the majors?

 

Clark, Ray, and Diaz have all been major disappointments. Yes there are excuses I suppose but Tim Tebow is at 972 in high A and he hasn't picked up a bat since HS and had another job in between if I recall.

[82brewcrew82]

So Tebow had a .648 OPS in a ball but still got promoted. Why do you think that is?

[Greenleaf1]

He's in KLaw's top 50, for whatever that's worth.....

 

With that, I have the espn Insider have access to Keith Laws prospect updates.

 

Brewers ranked in the top 50 for April and July as well as the top 100 he created in January

 

January 2017 ranking(top 100) - April Rankings update(Top 50) - July ranking update(Top 50)

 

Ray 34 - 27 - NR

Brinson 38 - 31 - 30

Diaz 41 - 30 - NR

Burnes - NR - NR - 38

Clark - 67 - NR - NR

Erceg - 70 - NR - NR

Hader - 71 - NR - NR

Ortiz - 79 - NR - NR

Woodruff - 100 - NR - NR

 

It will be interesting when MILB updates there top 100 but from the update ranking between BP, Law, and BA. It seems a lot of scouts are down on Ray. Keith Law was the biggest fan out of those three scout sites before and after the draft. Having Law drop Ray out of the top 50 says alot.

 

For people who don't have access, Burness is right behind Mckay (first rounder from Louisville by Atlanta) and right ahead of Gohara (ATL) and Triston Mckenzie (stud pitcher for the Indians). Seeing him ahead of Mckenzie puts a smile on my face because I know a lot of scouts love Mckenzie and myself view Mckenzie as a future TOR pitcher (Carolina has faced him twice these year and he dominated them both times).

 

I don't know if that is Law and his "love" for the Brewers or reality but that is one sad state of affairs. Only Brinson and Burnes are up there. Maybe Hader is off because he is in the majors?

 

Clark, Ray, and Diaz have all been major disappointments. Yes there are excuses I suppose but Tim Tebow is at 972 in high A and he hasn't picked up a bat since HS and had another job in between if I recall.

 

Massive small sample size alert on Tebow.

 

As for the top 50, players currently in the majors were not eligible (honestly something I wish all prospect lists would do), so Hader/Woodruff were not eligible. He mentioned in his chat yesterday that Ray was nowhere near his top 50, seemingly suggesting he wouldn't be on his top 100 either. He did say he figured there'd be about half a dozen Brewers on his next top 100, which I would assume also would not include Hader/Woodruff, so take that for what it's worth.

 

I submitted a question about Burnes, but he didn't answer it. I believe he took 2 or 3 questions about how crappy Ray has been, and a couple other Brewers-related questions, so I was kinda peeved he wouldn't take any questions about a very surprising add to his top 50, but oh well.

 

He said he talks to a lot of scouts for the list, so maybe he's hearing the same thing that someone had mentioned recently on Twitter that Burnes' velocity has seen an uptick recently and is more regularly hitting 96-97. Should be interesting to see how his pitches are graded when MLB.com updates its info.

[CheezWizHed]

He said he talks to a lot of scouts for the list, so maybe he's hearing the same thing that someone had mentioned recently on Twitter that Burnes' velocity has seen an uptick recently and is more regularly hitting 96-97. Should be interesting to see how his pitches are graded when MLB.com updates its info.

 

That would be very interesting to see in a more confirmed matter than Twitter. I saw another poster list that speed for Burnes' FB. Plus it would be good to know if that is peak or working velo.

 

If working velo, he would be right there with Woodruff and would explain a lot of his dominance (just like Woodruff).

[82brewcrew82]

I've seen Burnes pitch a couple times when he was at A+. The second time the gun in the stadium was showing velo that high but I talked to a scout who was clocking pitches and said the gun (EDIT: at the stadium) was 3/4 MPH high.

[Greenleaf1]

I've seen Burnes pitch a couple times when he was at A+. The second time the gun in the stadium was showing velo that high but I talked to a scout who was clocking pitches and said the gun (EDIT: at the stadium) was 3/4 MPH high.

 

I probably can't find the tweet but it was from one of the regular Brewers minor league tweeters that mentioned the velo uptick was something he was hearing in the last few weeks, and seemed like it might've been due to an adjustment he had made at AA. I might be wrong though, there's been a lot of talk about him making adjustments throughout the season.

 

Honestly though, if he's making adjustments and seeing any sort of increase in consistency/velocity, then with these results his realistic ceiling is only going up.

[82brewcrew82]

I've seen Burnes pitch a couple times when he was at A+. The second time the gun in the stadium was showing velo that high but I talked to a scout who was clocking pitches and said the gun (EDIT: at the stadium) was 3/4 MPH high.

 

I probably can't find the tweet but it was from one of the regular Brewers minor league tweeters that mentioned the velo uptick was something he was hearing in the last few weeks, and seemed like it might've been due to an adjustment he had made at AA. I might be wrong though, there's been a lot of talk about him making adjustments throughout the season.

 

Honestly though, if he's making adjustments and seeing any sort of increase in consistency/velocity, then with these results his realistic ceiling is only going up.

 

 

Oh I agree and I'm not disputing your info, just giving my personal expereince. What your saying about an adjustment sounds vaguely familiar.

 

If that is correct and he is throwing mid 90's, with his already described as "eliete" curveball and average change, then he has to be on the cusp when it comes to these lists. I don't put much stock in these prospect lists as they seem arbitrary and reactionary when it comes to moving players up and down. However, when we get reports of something changing in the players skill set, then that makes a difference in my mind.