Sonny Gray- Let's GO FOR IT! Here's a plan...

[superfly]

Some of you guys are literally throwing together deals of players you don't like and/or are outfielders. Good luck getting a deal with your damaged goods. If you aren't willing to give up a player you would truly hurt to see leave good luck getting any big time player.

 

And for those thinking we can get Gray for table scraps.

 

“Our approach now given the commitment we have is try to get the best players, period. And understanding also that this process doesn’t happen overnight and we’re going to have to be patient with it.”

 

http://www.sfchronicle.com/athletics/article/Billy-Beane-insists-A-s-committed-to-major-11292397.php&cmpid=twitter-premium

 

If you want Gray, chances are the package is going to have to lead with Brinson or Hader. That's fine if you don't want to pay that price but they aren't going to accept our 6th best prospect or something and then a bunch of guys in the 15-25 range because they feel they need a certain position or something.

 

Prospect "ratings" are overrated and way too subjective. Oakland could rate Burnes or Dubon as our top 2 prospects in the system while we think Brinson and Hader are. Who knows what their view of our system is. Surprisingly I feel folks have been fairly decent in their package ideas, alot of times it's like you say, dump our junk on them for an all star!

[Brewcrewin07]

Be interesting to see if Gray IS their target if they get something done late tonight or tomorrow since he is scheduled to start for Oakland on Wednesday.

[superfly]

I've mentioned in a couple of threads that I think Santana is someone we should explore the trade market for, as I believe he's more valuable to an AL team with limited outfield options than he is for us, an NL team with a lot of outfield prospects and depth. But even with that view, I don't think it's the right move to make at this trade deadline. I simply don't see the market for a bat-first outfielder/DH being all that great at the moment. It's something to explore in the offseason, where I think the market could be better. And while I think Brinson and perhaps even Phillips will, over their respective remaining team control, be more valuable than Santana, they won't be more valuable this season. Even with the significant defensive upgrade. They'll need time to adapt.

 

If anything what I'd prefer is an indirect trade of Santana for Gray. Meaning we trade prospects for Gray now, and trade Santana for prospects in the offseason. Where Santanas value is likely higher (esp if he keeps playing like he has and stays healthy), and where we'd have more (I would imagine) potential trade partners, and thus can also find the type of prospects we like.

 

Santana is untouchable unless it's an elite type of player coming back in my opinion. Almost 5 years of control on a budding star is just what we want in a player.

[JosephC]

I might be in the minority, but I truly don't think it's going to take a Quintana like package to acquire Gray. Think his perceived value is a lot higher than what it really is.

 

Taking the average WAR between Fangraphs and Baseball Reference, Quintana has been nearly a 2 WAR better pitcher on average for the seasons 2014-2016. That is a huge difference. Also, Quintana is under team control through 2020 while Gray is under team control through 2019. Combine those two things and Quintana has more than double the surplus value of Gray. The only real advantage with Gray is that he's in arbitration so he may be slightly cheaper than Quintana but the difference probably won't be all that great assuming Gray gets bumped up to 7+ million next season which is pretty likely.

 

This last off-season I had put a surplus value on Quintana of about 110 million and bumped it down to about 95 million just prior to him being traded based on 1/2 less years of control and that his performance has slipped a bit the first half of this season. Verdict is now in and the prospect surplus values for the White Sox return on him is as follows:

 

http://www.thepointofpittsburgh.com/mlb-prospect-surplus-values-2016-updated-edition/

Take above values and multiply by 1.07 (random number pulled out of my rear end for 2016 to 2017 "inflation."

 

http://www.baseballamerica.com/minors/2017-midseason-top-100-prospects-july-7/#Zxq2bASSqotc9Mte.97

Then slot Jimenez (#5) and Cease (#83) from the Baseball America mid-season update and the prospect surplus values are as follows.

 

Jimenez = 78.645

Cease = 16.692

Rose = 2.35 (value of "fringe" prospect)

Flete = 2.35 (value of "fringe" prospect)

Total = 100.037 million

So right in the ballpark of what was expected.

 

Now in terms of Sonny Gray...my best guess at his surplus value is outlined on page 4, post 69 of this thread. I came up with about 42 million in surplus value. Interestingly enough, reillymcshane also put his estimate up on page 7, post 137 of this thread and came up with just about the same figure. So there are two different estimates that indicate that Gray really shouldn't bring even half the value that Quintana did.

 

I guess where reillymcshane and I disagree will be the value of some of the Brewer prospects but I suspect we'd be pretty close on most.

 

For the record, here is my current prospect surplus value amounts, some of which I'll want to adjust when MLB does their pipeline update to the top 100 (which I think should happen pretty quick).

 

66.34 million = Lewis Brinson (hitter #11-#25 on top 100)

22.042 million = Isan Diaz (hitter #76-#100 on top 100)

17.655 million = Josh Hader, Luis Ortiz, Brandon Woodruff (pitcher #51-#75 on top 100)

12.84 million = Corey Ray, Brett Phillips, Keston Hiura (barely outside of top 100)

10.7 million = Trent Clark, Corbin Burnes, Phil Bickford, Lucas Erceg (top ten organizational prospect)

7.49 million = Mauricio Dubon, Marcos Diplan (between "top ten organizational prospect" and "role player" prospect)

5.35 million = Jacob Nottingham, Freddy Peralta, Tristen Lutz, Cody Ponce, Ryan Cordell, Jake Gatewood, Monte Harrison (role player prospects)

2.14 million = everybody else worth mentioning (fringe prospects)

 

Personally, I wouldn't even be willing to trade 40 million of prospect value for Gray...would rather go with a cheap 1/2 year rental for insurance purposes. But back on page 4 I suggested the following as fair and reasonable swaps for Gray and after seeing reillymcshane's estimated surplus value I am even more convinced that these are reasonable packages:

 

Package #1 = Isan Diaz (22.042) + Luis Ortiz (17.655) + Jorge Lopez (2.14)

 

Package #2 = Brandon Woodruff (17.655) + Brett Phillips (12.84) + Cody Ponce (5.35) + Jake Gatewood (5.35)

 

Package #3 = Josh Hader (17.655) + Corey Ray (12.84) + Phil Bickford (10.7) + Clint Coulter (2.14)

 

IMO it's a no-brainer to walk away from a Gray deal that would involve anything significantly above what is included in any of those three packages.

[Lee16]

I like Gray, probably more than most.

 

I'd offer up Ray, Ortiz, Isan Diaz and a Coulter/Medieros type.

[brewmann04]

It be curious to see if they really have intrest in Gray and what deal or offer has DS made? if any

[StearnsFTW]

I like Gray, probably more than most.

 

I'd offer up Ray, Ortiz, Isan Diaz and a Coulter/Medieros type.

 

Take out Diaz and I could live with it.

[Brewcrewin07]

From Bob Nightengale....https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/mlb/columnist/bob-nightengale/2017/07/17/mlb-trade-deadline-rumors-sonny-gray-jd-martinez/484205001/

 

Sonny Gray

 

The Brewers may be the most aggressive team pursuing Gray, who pitched three years for Brewers pitching coach Derek Johnson at Vanderbilt. The Brewers, whose rebuild has suddenly been accelerated by their first-place status in the NL Central, not only have the prospects, but also a fiery owner wanting to land him.

 

“There’s an old saying, 'Be careful what you wish for because you may get it,' ’’ Brewers owner Mark Attanasio told reporters Sunday. “If you love your prospects too much, maybe that’s an issue, also.

 

“We have to make the right move, either way.’’

 

The Brewers still have to exercise caution, not thwarting their rebuild efforts because of their 4 ½-game lead over the Cubs. If they didn’t believe that the cost of Quintana was worth surrendering their elite prospects, would they give up three of their top 20 like Brett Phillips, Brandon Woodruff and Corbin Burnes for Gray?

 

The Astros, 62-30, actually may be the team that most needs Gray. Sure, they’ll cruise to the AL West title with or without him, but with the way the Astros have dominated this year, anything short of a World Series berth will be a disappointment.

 

The Astros would prefer to land Detroit Tigers All-Star Michael Fulmer, and likely would include No. 1 prospect Francis Martes for him, but they inquired, just like the Cubs, and came up empty. If Fulmer is traded, the Tigers say, it won’t be until this winter when everyone can make a bid.

 

The Astros realize that Gray is the ideal front-line starter in this market to make a run for their first World Series title in franchise history, giving them a dynamic rotation with All-Stars Dallas Keuchel and Lance McCullers Jr.

 

Prediction: Gray goes to the Astros for starter Joe Musgrove, prized pitching prospect Forrest Whitley and outfield prospect Teoscar Hernandez.

[mlloyd10]

Davies/Ray/Diplan beats that offer that Bob suggests

[brewmann04]

i hope someone else gets Gray he not a number one guy imo

[trwi7]

Davies/Ray/Diplan beats that offer that Bob suggests

 

Musgrove and Davies is sort of a wash. Whitley and Hernandez obliterate Ray and Diplan's current value.

[JohnBriggs12]

The Cubs stole Quintana. He'll be a stud in the NL. Still can't believe the Cubs got him without giving up a prospect above A ball.. Gray is not quite on his level but he's a prime big league starter. Rome is burning while Stearns is fiddling. The juice the Cubs got from the Quintana deal woke them up.

[brewmann04]

this team been playing over their heads and it will come back to reality.

[Mudville9]

Sure if there is a better cost controlled young talented SP available, that makes perfect sense.

 

Not sure that there is though.

 

Rays are in it. Not trading Archer this deadline.

 

Pirates said they are NOT trading Cole this deadline.

 

Blue Jays pretty much said that Stroman is not available.

 

Pirates have said nothing about not trading Cole. Cole is available but at a very steep price.

 

 

If the Pirates somehow sweep us this series, they are right back in it. That would only put them 3 games back of us and a couple behind the Cubs.

[OnaBadger58]

The Cubs stole Quintana. He'll be a stud in the NL. Still can't believe the Cubs got him without giving up a prospect above A ball.. Gray is not quite on his level but he's a prime big league starter. Rome is burning while Stearns is fiddling. The juice the Cubs got from the Quintana deal woke them up.

I wouldn't say stole by any stretch. Jimenez and Cease are very good prospects (probably understated). By the time their prospects are in the majors, the Royals and Tigers should be terrible.

[JosephC]

From Bob Nightengale....https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/mlb/columnist/bob-nightengale/2017/07/17/mlb-trade-deadline-rumors-sonny-gray-jd-martinez/484205001/

 

 

Prediction: Gray goes to the Astros for starter Joe Musgrove, prized pitching prospect Forrest Whitley and outfield prospect Teoscar Hernandez.

 

Musgrove has basically been at replacement level so far as a major league player but his sample size is still somewhat limited (140 innings pitched). But at this time last year he was #32 on Baseball America's top prospect list. So he's a hard guy to evaluate. The #32 ranking would give him a value of 31.886 million but his MLB performance so far equals right around zero. Likely the type of player that different organizations would grade completely different. I would think his MLB performance is large enough at this time where it would outweigh his prospect status, meaning his value would be closer to zero than 31.866 million but where to put him is the big question. I'd probably classify him in that tweener group between top 100 prospect and top ten organizational prospect which puts his value at 12.84 million.

 

Forrest Whitley is #58 on the Baseball America update which puts his prospect surplus value at 17.655.

 

IMO Teoscar Hernandez is an easy call. Not listed as a top 100 player but it likely right on the borderline. Easy to put him in the same group as Brett Phillips which gives him a prospect surplus value of 12.84 million.

 

17.655 + 12.84 + 12.84 = 43.335 million

Another estimate that puts Sonny Grey's estimated surplus value at right around 40 million dollars.

[mlloyd10]

Davies/Ray/Diplan beats that offer that Bob suggests

 

Musgrove and Davies is sort of a wash. Whitley and Hernandez obliterate Ray and Diplan's current value.

 

 

Nah...MLB People do realize how good Ray can be

[Humans Need Water]

The Cubs stole Quintana. He'll be a stud in the NL. Still can't believe the Cubs got him without giving up a prospect above A ball.. Gray is not quite on his level but he's a prime big league starter. Rome is burning while Stearns is fiddling. The juice the Cubs got from the Quintana deal woke them up.

I wouldn't say stole by any stretch. Jimenez and Cease are very good prospects (probably understated). By the time their prospects are in the majors, the Royals and Tigers should be terrible.

I also disagree. Jimenez is 1.5yrs younger than Moncada and he's in A+ whereas Moncada had 45 AA games by last season's end. Both were Top 5 overall prospects when traded. Cease is 4 months older than Kopech and has 14 A starts this year so could see some A+ action this 2nd half. Kopech had 11 A+ starts by last season's end. Kopech clearly is a higher rated prospect but Sale is also much better than Quintana. All these guys were in similar positions in both those trades. The back-end guys in Quintana deal have more experience than the back-end guys in Sale deal too (4th piece in Sale deal looks horrendous statistically but throws hard so maybe he figures it out at some point).

 

"Rome is burning while Stearns is fiddling" seems to suggest that he needs to react to the Cubs landing Quintana to inject some life into the Brewers. That can be a very dangerous mindset to be in when making decisions that simultaneously impact this year as well as the next 5. I'd argue that adding 1-2 strong pen arms will put the team in a better overall position to contend. Having 8 dependable arms will keep them fresher and sharper creating a ripple effect. The pen has an opportunity to impact every game. He could get both Gray and a strong pen arm but that'll require a lot of farm usage - at least he's targeting guys with control (or so he says he is)

[Fear The Chorizo]

Just because prospects haven't been playing long enough to reach higher minor league levels before being traded doesn't make them less valuable or less regarded. The Cubs gave up their best hitting and pitching prospects in the package for Quintana, regardless of the levels they were at - they also had nothing at their higher minor league levels in terms of prospects that were as talented as Jimenez or Cease. I'm guessing pretty much every single player that was in this year's all star game made a stop or two in A or A+ ball on their way to being fantastic MLB players. And by the way, while players like Almora and Happ were still eligible for prospect rankings last year, Jimenez was ranked above both of them in the Cub organization.

 

And the "Rome is burning" shtick is just foolish - I truly hope Stearns isn't basing organizational moves on a game of one-upmanship against the defending WS champions who happen to have unlimited resources and better overall talent at the MLB level. The Brewers have had a surprising 1st half based on expectations, while the Cubs, Cardinals, and Pirates have all been very disappointing based on their projections/expectations. That combination is why Milwaukee still finds themselves atop the division by 3.5 games, even while in the midst of this horrifying 2 game losing streak. Stearns can't make the mistake of knee-jerk reaction trades at this point. To me this team has more of a feel to the 2007 team that got off to a great start, scuffled through midseason, then wound up finishing a few games over 0.500.

 

Part of the fun with this year's team is watching so many of their young players come into their own at the MLB level while still being competitive in a top-heavy NL. This is not the year to empty out the farm to try and make the playoffs when your likely competitors to get to a World Series are loaded (Dodgers, Nationals, Cubs). I agree that 1-2 moves to further bolster the bullpen may be the best path forward before July 31, especially if those relievers aren't just 2 month rentals. That along with potentially shifting Hader to the rotation or getting a healthy Anderson and Woodruff back as options will help.

[Humans Need Water]

Some of you guys are literally throwing together deals of players you don't like and/or are outfielders. Good luck getting a deal with your damaged goods. If you aren't willing to give up a player you would truly hurt to see leave good luck getting any big time player.

 

And for those thinking we can get Gray for table scraps.

 

“Our approach now given the commitment we have is try to get the best players, period. And understanding also that this process doesn’t happen overnight and we’re going to have to be patient with it.”

 

http://www.sfchronicle.com/athletics/article/Billy-Beane-insists-A-s-committed-to-major-11292397.php&cmpid=twitter-premium

 

If you want Gray, chances are the package is going to have to lead with Brinson or Hader. That's fine if you don't want to pay that price but they aren't going to accept our 6th best prospect or something and then a bunch of guys in the 15-25 range because they feel they need a certain position or something.

 

Prospect "ratings" are overrated and way too subjective. Oakland could rate Burnes or Dubon as our top 2 prospects in the system while we think Brinson and Hader are. Who knows what their view of our system is. Surprisingly I feel folks have been fairly decent in their package ideas, alot of times it's like you say, dump our junk on them for an all star!

What some of you call junk or damaged goods they might see as valuable. Beane stated they used to prefer players that had a little more experience due to more information on them as opposed to simply targeting the best players. As stated above, we don't know who they view as the best players in our system just as we don't know who Stearns deems the best players in our system.

 

It's great to say and market so-and-so as Top 100s but the reality is those guys have performed and showed their ability to be higher than their peers. Doesn't mean it's guaranteed success at the MLB level. Santana put up excellent numbers in A+, AA, AAA at 19-21yrs old and only made 1 Top 100 list for one year.

[tmwiese55]

Good post, FTC. My guess is that the price on starters is just going to end up being too high to make it worth the risk given the situation you outlined.

 

But the opportunity that fell in their lap this year shouldn't be ignored, so hopefully they can find some reasonable bullpen options for relatively little prospect cost. Someone like Neshek who shouldn't be too pricey. And I've kind of been enamored with David Robertson, with his bloated salary I'd be curious if they get any significant prospects back for him as long as the team is willing to eat all the salary, and the Brewers are prime position to eat that salary for a proven reliable guy like him. Toss them one OF prospect that's floundered a bit and one lower level lottery ticket and hope it's enough.

[JosephC]

I apologize if this has already been posted.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/sonny-gray-is-back-and-he-isnt/

 

Interesting look at Sonny Gray in 2016/2017. Does he have his breaking ball or doesn't he? Is he intentionally throwing more breaking balls out of the strike zone? Is this a new Sonny Gray and will MLB hitters make the adjustment? I don't think there is any data in this piece that would make anyone change their opinion on Gray but it's worth the read and there is stuff in there that Stearns is probably thinking about.

[superfly]

If we're gonna make the deal it's time. Another game thrown away and we conceivably are going to be down to a 2.5 game lead after tonight. This team needs a shot in the arm or the Cubs are going to lay waste to the division.

[Brewcrewin07]

If we're gonna make the deal it's time. Another game thrown away and we conceivably are going to be down to a 2.5 game lead after tonight. This team needs a shot in the arm or the Cubs are going to lay waste to the division.

 

Exactly this! Not sure what DS is waiting for?? They need a shot in the arm! If Gray is the target, why in the world would you let him pitch for Oakland tomorrow night. Quit sitting on your hands DS, the division lead is dwindling!

[KeithStone53151]

If we're gonna make the deal it's time. Another game thrown away and we conceivably are going to be down to a 2.5 game lead after tonight. This team needs a shot in the arm or the Cubs are going to lay waste to the division.

 

Exactly this! Not sure what DS is waiting for?? They need a shot in the arm! If Gray is the target, why in the world would you let him pitch for Oakland tomorrow night. Quit sitting on your hands DS, the division lead is dwindling!

 

I'd rather the shot in the arm be woodruff/sogard coming back in a week or two... or Anderson next month. Panicking over a 5 game stretch for a "shot in the arm" is absolutely not the right decision here.