Sonny Gray- Let's GO FOR IT! Here's a plan...

[JosephC]

.294/.387/.505/.892. No way would I be subtracting that from the lineup.

[A Swing and A Drive]

I agree with the poster above.

 

A bird in the hand...

 

Brinson has .854 OPS in over 2000 minor league abs

 

Santana has an OPS of .892 this season at the major league level.

 

As much as I love Brinson, It would be quite the gamble banking on Brinson being as good as Santana at this point.

 

That's a risk a contending team can't usually afford to make.

[NievesNoNO]

.294/.387/.505/.892. No way would I be subtracting that from the lineup.

 

Agreed. If they are choosing to "go for it" then I wouldn't subtract anybody from what they've constructed with their roster of position players. That is what makes them a potentially special team. They just need more pitching. I could accept giving up Brinson for Gray. If you offer him up that should put you in every conversation vs another teams offer. What I don't want is an over pay for a good but not great pitcher.

 

Brinson + Dubon/Diaz+ Peralta? or some other lesser 3rd piece is as far as I'd go. If that gets beat then move on. I'd be curious to find out if Brinson was on the table in the Quintana talks. If he was I'd have to believe that DS wasn't willing to include another significant piece to push it in the Brewers favor. If he wouldn't cave for Quintana I wouldn't expect an overpay for Gray.

[Lathund]

I've mentioned in a couple of threads that I think Santana is someone we should explore the trade market for, as I believe he's more valuable to an AL team with limited outfield options than he is for us, an NL team with a lot of outfield prospects and depth. But even with that view, I don't think it's the right move to make at this trade deadline. I simply don't see the market for a bat-first outfielder/DH being all that great at the moment. It's something to explore in the offseason, where I think the market could be better. And while I think Brinson and perhaps even Phillips will, over their respective remaining team control, be more valuable than Santana, they won't be more valuable this season. Even with the significant defensive upgrade. They'll need time to adapt.

 

If anything what I'd prefer is an indirect trade of Santana for Gray. Meaning we trade prospects for Gray now, and trade Santana for prospects in the offseason. Where Santanas value is likely higher (esp if he keeps playing like he has and stays healthy), and where we'd have more (I would imagine) potential trade partners, and thus can also find the type of prospects we like.

 

I'd be curious to find out if Brinson was on the table in the Quintana talks. If he was I'd have to believe that DS wasn't willing to include another significant piece to push it in the Brewers favor. If he wouldn't cave for Quintana I wouldn't expect an overpay for Gray.

 

I'd also be curious to find that out, though I expect we never will. My guess is that he wasn't. If he was, I don't think there would've been much trouble putting together the rest of the deal. Jimenez and Cease are highly rated prospects, but both quite far removed from the majors. Brinson is much closer, as are any of our major pitching prospects (Burnes, Hader, Ortiz, Woodruff) which makes them less risky than Cease. And I'd imagine as the 3rd/4th pieces of the deal we could include better prospects than the Cubs did, without touching our top 10-15 guys. As you say though, it could be that the secondary piece was someone DS absolutely did not want to give up, but I don't think that is as likely.

[iKezims]

I've mentioned in a couple of threads that I think Santana is someone we should explore the trade market for, as I believe he's more valuable to an AL team with limited outfield options than he is for us, an NL team with a lot of outfield prospects and depth. But even with that view, I don't think it's the right move to make at this trade deadline. I simply don't see the market for a bat-first outfielder/DH being all that great at the moment. It's something to explore in the offseason, where I think the market could be better. And while I think Brinson and perhaps even Phillips will, over their respective remaining team control, be more valuable than Santana, they won't be more valuable this season. Even with the significant defensive upgrade. They'll need time to adapt.

 

If anything what I'd prefer is an indirect trade of Santana for Gray. Meaning we trade prospects for Gray now, and trade Santana for prospects in the offseason. Where Santanas value is likely higher (esp if he keeps playing like he has and stays healthy), and where we'd have more (I would imagine) potential trade partners, and thus can also find the type of prospects we like.

 

If this team is as close to competing as it apparently is, why trade Santana at all? He is literally exactly what you are looking for on a competitive/rebuilding team: young, improving, controlled. He's locked up until after 2021. I know we are OF rich, but why take the gamble on Phillips or Brinson when you know what Santana's floor is and he hasn't reached his prime/potential yet? I think Broxton makes much more sense to replace than Santana.

 

Just seems like an unnecessary risk to trade what you know you have for a SP and then move in a prospect where you don't 100% know what you have, when you could just move the prospect plus a few lower pieces and keep the proven guy. I much rather trade Ray/Ortiz/+ for Gray or if it came down to it Brinson/+ than explore something with Santana at this current moment.

[mlloyd10]

I've mentioned in a couple of threads that I think Santana is someone we should explore the trade market for, as I believe he's more valuable to an AL team with limited outfield options than he is for us, an NL team with a lot of outfield prospects and depth. But even with that view, I don't think it's the right move to make at this trade deadline. I simply don't see the market for a bat-first outfielder/DH being all that great at the moment. It's something to explore in the offseason, where I think the market could be better. And while I think Brinson and perhaps even Phillips will, over their respective remaining team control, be more valuable than Santana, they won't be more valuable this season. Even with the significant defensive upgrade. They'll need time to adapt.

 

If anything what I'd prefer is an indirect trade of Santana for Gray. Meaning we trade prospects for Gray now, and trade Santana for prospects in the offseason. Where Santanas value is likely higher (esp if he keeps playing like he has and stays healthy), and where we'd have more (I would imagine) potential trade partners, and thus can also find the type of prospects we like.

 

If this team is as close to competing as it apparently is, why trade Santana at all? He is literally exactly what you are looking for on a competitive/rebuilding team: young, improving, controlled. He's locked up until after 2021. I know we are OF rich, but why take the gamble on Phillips or Brinson when you know what Santana's floor is and he hasn't reached his prime/potential yet? I think Broxton makes much more sense to replace than Santana.

 

Just seems like an unnecessary risk to trade what you know you have for a SP and then move in a prospect where you don't 100% know what you have, when you could just move the prospect plus a few lower pieces and keep the proven guy. I much rather trade Ray/Ortiz/+ for Gray or if it came down to it Brinson/+ than explore something with Santana at this current moment.

 

 

100% agree - You have a a guy that is just sniffing his potential.

[Madhawk23]

With the immense OF depth in our system right now, I did briefly consider the idea of trading Santana - as we are eventually going to need to trade one or more of these guys heading into next season. However, I just don't think you can trade Santana right now as you are in the middle of a pennant race. Even if you use him as the major piece to get a guy like Sonny Gray in return, what type of message does that send to the fan base that you are going out and trading away one of your biggest and hottest bats? And I don't think there is anyway that a Phillips/Brinson platoon the last few months of the season is going to give you anywhere near what Santana would.

 

As I stated though - we are going to need to trade 1 or 2 of these guys by next season as there is going to be no reason you'd want to send Brinson back to AAA for another year, and Phillips and Cordell have also proven about as much as they need to in AAA this year.

 

Best case scenario is that Broxton gets his season turned around a bit and finds more consistency in the 2nd half, and then we move him in the offseason. However, I highly doubt that he finds that consistency that we are hoping for.

[BrewCrewBlueDevil]

Broxton needs to be platooned. He is undisciplined and too streaky.

[Jopal78]

Two points to consider:

 

1.) When is the last time Billy Beane made a good trade?

 

He just gave away his two best relief pitchers, both of whom were under contract for multiple seasons, and received Trienen (a player he already traded away once before) and two A-ball prospects neither of whom were amongst the National's top tier. The last trade he clearly won would have been trading Ben Zobrist's expiring contract to KC for Sean Manaea back in 2015. Therefore, it is certainly possible Beane will accept a package of lesser players for Sonny Gray, because that's the kind of track record he has.

 

2.) If the Cubs gave up two prospects who collectively were ranked within the Top 100 in the game in order to acquire Quintana with three years of control. The "price" for Sonny Gray will be considerably less. He has less team control than Quintana, he is physically smaller than Quintana and has injury concerns. While it only takes on team to give up a king's ransom, I believe it would be possible for Milwaukee to acquire him without giving up a combination of: Brinson, Hader, Ortiz, Diaz, etc.

[Lathund]

I've mentioned in a couple of threads that I think Santana is someone we should explore the trade market for, as I believe he's more valuable to an AL team with limited outfield options than he is for us, an NL team with a lot of outfield prospects and depth. But even with that view, I don't think it's the right move to make at this trade deadline. I simply don't see the market for a bat-first outfielder/DH being all that great at the moment. It's something to explore in the offseason, where I think the market could be better. And while I think Brinson and perhaps even Phillips will, over their respective remaining team control, be more valuable than Santana, they won't be more valuable this season. Even with the significant defensive upgrade. They'll need time to adapt.

 

If anything what I'd prefer is an indirect trade of Santana for Gray. Meaning we trade prospects for Gray now, and trade Santana for prospects in the offseason. Where Santanas value is likely higher (esp if he keeps playing like he has and stays healthy), and where we'd have more (I would imagine) potential trade partners, and thus can also find the type of prospects we like.

 

If this team is as close to competing as it apparently is, why trade Santana at all? He is literally exactly what you are looking for on a competitive/rebuilding team: young, improving, controlled. He's locked up until after 2021. I know we are OF rich, but why take the gamble on Phillips or Brinson when you know what Santana's floor is and he hasn't reached his prime/potential yet? I think Broxton makes much more sense to replace than Santana.

 

Just seems like an unnecessary risk to trade what you know you have for a SP and then move in a prospect where you don't 100% know what you have, when you could just move the prospect plus a few lower pieces and keep the proven guy. I much rather trade Ray/Ortiz/+ for Gray or if it came down to it Brinson/+ than explore something with Santana at this current moment.

 

Why not Broxton? Because we won't get much at all in return. I'm not actively trying to get rid of Santana, but looking at the outfield logjam we have coming up I simply feel that he's the one outfielder we have that other teams would overpay for. Anyone else we trade, we'd be trading away at a discount. I look at what we lose at a position of strength, vs what we could get at a position of need. Yes it's a risk, but I believe 6 years of Brinson will be of more value than 4 years of Santana.

 

Anyway, I know I'm firmly in the minority in my position on deals of this kind, and that's fine. It comes from the belief that in general the premium you pay for "certainty" in established big leaguers is too high. You take on significant risk with betting on multiple prospects instead of that one proven player, but not enough risk to justify their low trade value.

 

This thread is about Gray though, so we should stick to that. I brought this up in relation to someone who suggested including Santana in the Gray deal at this trade deadline, which I am against as it weakens us too much over the rest of the season. I agreed with him in the more long term though, that a Santana trade could be a net positive.

[Warning Track Power]

I would give Beane the option of choosing one from each of the lists below:

 

A. Starting Pitcher: Ortiz, Woodruff

B. Outfielder: Ray, Clark

and either

C. Outfielder: Cordell

OR

D. 2 of the Following: Medeiros, Orimoloye, Devin Williams, Supak, Reed

 

I think that package is enticing enough given Oakland will be receiving from MLB.com's prospect list:

A.: #4 or #8

B: #2 or #6

C: #16

D: #18, #24, #27, #28, #29

[HighHeat19]

Beane's trading tendencies all relate to one thing. And that's saving money. You find a creative way to save Beane money. And you can have Gray. Hence the reason it will be hard to send an MLB player over as their clock has started and their just that closer to their big payday. My guess is a package of Ray, Isan Diaz and Erceg would easily get it done. Considering Gray's injury history and height.

[A Swing and A Drive]

Two points to consider:

 

1.) When is the last time Billy Beane made a good trade?

 

He just gave away his two best relief pitchers, both of whom were under contract for multiple seasons, and received Trienen (a player he already traded away once before) and two A-ball prospects neither of whom were amongst the National's top tier. The last trade he clearly won would have been trading Ben Zobrist's expiring contract to KC for Sean Manaea back in 2015. Therefore, it is certainly possible Beane will accept a package of lesser players for Sonny Gray, because that's the kind of track record he has.

 

2.) If the Cubs gave up two prospects who collectively were ranked within the Top 100 in the game in order to acquire Quintana with three years of control. The "price" for Sonny Gray will be considerably less. He has less team control than Quintana, he is physically smaller than Quintana and has injury concerns. While it only takes on team to give up a king's ransom, I believe it would be possible for Milwaukee to acquire him without giving up a combination of: Brinson, Hader, Ortiz, Diaz, etc.

 

100% agree that Billy Beane rarely makes good trades and is vastly overrated as a GM, Moneyball be damned.

 

The package he just got for Doolittle/Madson was maybe an equal return for JUST Doolittle. If Bean was smart he would have got more in two separate trades.

 

I think Gray is almost sure to be traded this month. The Brewers need to be aggressive and not wait two weeks or they will lose out on him, IMO.

 

I think we match up best with the A's. It may take Brinson as the headliner, but maybe not.

 

Still wonder if Stearns can offer Corey Ray AND Monte Harrison instead of Brinson. The A's can afford to wait and take on less risk by acquiring two players as future CF options.

[brewcrewdue80]

I know our pitching down in the minors has been terrible for years, but getting overly attached would be a total travesty. Trade Brinson instead of Woodruff/Ortiz? Yikes...I don't know about that. There is a pretty massive talent/value gap between those guys in my opinion. Preferring to trade a 5 tool OFer over a mid rotation guy is a bit concerning.

 

Now wanting to trade Erceg over Peralta because you want to keep the pitching is a little more understandable since their value would be more in line.

 

You feel that way. Pitchers like Woodruff and Ortiz could turn out better than Nelson, Anderson etc....including Gray. Brinson's numbers aren't better than Santana or Braun's when playing. You need 6 good pitchers vs 4 good OFs and you have 2 of those OFs already with a questionable 3rd in place. We have a boatload of OF prospects. Getting Gray for 2 seasons adding the team control of Nelson and Anderson both heading to their 3years of Arb. Garza, Davies, and Guerra are question marks to start the season in 2018. So yeah I'd prefer to have the next wave of SPs in place vs. no SPs for 2-3years and what makes up the rotation all hitting FA. Had Brinson shown a little something in his short stint, maybe I wouldn't want to trade him so bad, but he had 13ks 3hits, 3 bbs in 31PAs. I don't think he hits for two seasons to help the team. But I think Woodruff will help this team immediately and Ortiz would help immediately within 2years of now.

 

Woodruff's arsenal of Pitches with his velocity is the kind that can be an instant success. He's not a wild hard thrower. 2.6bb/9 is rather good for a career minors something Nelson never possessed a minors season until his promoted year.

 

Add Woodruff and Gray to the Rotation with Nelson/Anderson this can excel the team down the stretch....Brinson with Gray only not so much.

[A Swing and A Drive]

I agree that the Doolittle/Madson trade signifies that Beane is NOT deadset on getting MLB-ready players in return for Gray.

 

This makes me believe that a deal could get done without Brinson involved.

 

If Stearns can somehow acquire him WITHOUT Brinson or Hader, I'm fine with him trading 4-5 other prospects to get it done.

[DocLuna7]

I agree that the Doolittle/Madson trade signifies that Beane is NOT deadset on getting MLB-ready players in return for Gray.

 

This makes me believe that a deal could get done without Brinson involved.

 

If Stearns can somehow acquire him WITHOUT Brinson or Hader, I'm fine with him trading 4-5 other prospects to get it done.

 

You would gut our system for Sonny Gray? Seriously? I am all for trading prospects for true game-changing talent but Somny Gray does not profile as more than a three starter on a playoff team in my humble opinion.

[NievesNoNO]

I know our pitching down in the minors has been terrible for years, but getting overly attached would be a total travesty. Trade Brinson instead of Woodruff/Ortiz? Yikes...I don't know about that. There is a pretty massive talent/value gap between those guys in my opinion. Preferring to trade a 5 tool OFer over a mid rotation guy is a bit concerning..

 

I think this is a really fair reality check. I'd include myself in the group of people that is overly sensitive to trying to keep anything that resembles a potential above average MLB starting pitcher. Brinson is a super prospect. He should be starting for somebody next season; hopefully he's out in CF for the Brewers. I would agree, if you really take a step back and look at the total player, the odds are much greater Brinson becomes an above average player vs even one of Woodruff or Ortiz becoming an above average starter.

 

I don't want to deal Brinson but could accept the cost for Gray. I'd prefer to strike up a lesser deal with some other players personally but I trust what this management is building. I could not accept both Brinson and Woodruff/Oritz/Hader. Honestly, for Gray if you're including Brinson you shouldn't need much else. Sure he was underwhelming in his first taste but he's in the top handful of OF prospects and is as close to proven as you can get without extended playing time in MLB.

[Madhawk23]

OK, here's a new proposal (feel free to rip it up):

 

Broxton

Davies

Ray

Diplan or Herrera

 

On the surface, this doesn't feel like enough for the A's. But, they would be getting a young CF in Broxton who has at least shown that he can be a capable (if not streaky) MLB regular, along with Davies who proved last year that he can have success as a starting pitcher in the big leagues (and might fair better in that more spacious Oakland Coliseum). Both of these guys are controllable for many years to come too. Ray gives them a Top 100 prospect back in the deal (I know he's not living up to it this year though) that many scouts are still very high on, and Diplan or Herrera gives them a high upside young arm.

 

Any chance this deal excites the A's, or would they laugh this off? Would we have to swap in an Ortiz for Diplan/Herrera to get a deal done in this type of a package for Gray?

[Oldcity]

People are mistaking "best pitcher who is definitely available" for an ace. He has less value than Quintana and shouldn't bee considered more than a 2/3.

 

Brinson, Hader should only be available if we're talking about Fulmer or Archer, and the Rays aren't selling. They're currently in the playoffs.

[Humans Need Water]

I initially wanted nothing to do with Quintana/Gray type players given we were going to have to part with Brinson + Hader/Woodruff but since it seems that Beane might be targeting low level/high upside guys then that would work much better for the Brewers if it's true and I'd be on board with that.

 

Ray, Ortiz, Harrison + flyer is something I'd be willing to look at if it keeps Brinson, Phillips, Hader, Woodruff, Burnes, Dubon in place. These are guys who can play critical roles over the next handful of years and 4 of them are MLB ready with Burnes flying through the system and Dubon in AAA (will need time there next year too). Didn't realize Burnes was consistently hitting 95 touching 97 so I'd keep him over Ortiz as we'll have to part with a top tier pitching prospect one way or the other. I'd prefer to keep Diaz but would be open to including Erceg depending on others involved. Other guys that can float in and out of the deal are Clark, Diplan, Ponce, Supak, Herrera.

 

Ray becomes their top OF prospect, Ortiz arguably their top pitching prospect (Puk) - both slot in Top 5 in system and were Top 100 coming in. I think Harrison as the 3rd prospect makes sense given their OF prospects are pathetic and he'd slot in as their 3rd best and potentially Top 18 in org. Just not sure if that's an overpay or not. Part of me thinks that, part of me doesn't.

[tmwiese55]

Phillips, Ray, Ortiz. Too much? Logic being Phillips is essentially blocked. Ray is several levels below and years away but still has some shine in spite of his rough year. And you have to give up a P prospect. I think I'd rather give Ortiz than Hader, Woodruff or Burnes.

[Madhawk23]

I see that Bob Nightengale just threw out a package of Phillips, Woodruff and Burnes for Gray. Boy, I'd hate to part with both Woody and Burnes in the same deal for Gray. I could get behind giving up one of them, but both is a lot to part ways with. I think I'd rather go Phillips, Burnes, Dubon or Diaz. That would allow us to hold onto Brinson, Hader, Woodruff, Ray, Ortiz and one of Dubon/Diaz. I'd be good with that, but who knows if Oakland would be?

[Oldcity]

No thanks to that Nightengale proposal. If you're gong to give up those pitching prospects, find something better than a number 3 starter with durability issues.

[tmwiese55]

I think I'd have a stance of only one P prospect or I'm walking. IMO, what makes us able to pull a trade off is that we have so many OF and middle IF prospects, so trade from the glut. We do not have an abundance of pitching, so can only give up one there. I think Phillips is an obvious choice due to the numbers game at the big league level and Santana doing so well. That's a reasonable starting point to me (one P and Phillips), then find a position player at the lower levels that works.

[mlloyd10]

Burnes will be a top 75 prospect by years end

 

Im fine with letting Phillips and Woodruff go.