Sonny Gray- Let's GO FOR IT! Here's a plan...

[mlloyd10]

It doesn't really matter what number prospect it is on our board... our #8 prospect could be another teams #2.... just depends on the team

[brewmann04]

The bottom line we don't know who is Stearns is looking at or who is he willing to offer up in any particular trade

[HighHeat19]

What we do know is Stearns offered less than what the Cubs offered for Quintana. And we can assume that is good thing.

[JohnBriggs12]

You give them a choice of any prospect, then you get 3 names that are untouchable. They make their 2nd selection, and then you get 10 more names to take off the board, and after their 3rd selection, you get another 10 untouchables. They end up with essentially the number 1, number 5, number 16, and number 27 in the system. Only caveat, the first two picks can't both be pitchers. Pretty simple.

[brewmann04]

Yes I sure DS has a list of prospects he willing to move at the deadline

[OnaBadger58]

And the bottom line for the A's is there in the driver's seat. Whether is the Brewers, Cubs, Indians, Yanks, Astros, etc. going for Gray, the A's have 2 weeks to wait for the best offer. Gray has 2.5 years of control, so they don't even have to trade him this deadline. This year he has shown to be back to the normal Sonny Gray, so the price is going to be steep. Stearns has to decide if Gray is worth taking a chunk out of the farm system, and personally I think it's too early to do that.

[brewmann04]

It also depends on what happens on this 10 game road trip

[Jenkins5]

After watching Phillips home run today, I really would hate to lose him. He just has so much energy and is a guy who will be a fan favorite for a long time. Incredible clubhouse guy who is loved by everyone. Now, I know there is more important things & he needs to perform but I really enjoy watching him and following him! Cordell is easiest one to lose. He is MLB ready but absolutely no spot for him. Like Cooper, going to A's with a DH option & less than stellar OFs could help him crack lineup & help them.

 

Tyrone Taylor continues to hit since coming back in small sample side. I wonder if the A's would bit on a former #1 prospect for us? He really hit a wall in double A but he was extremely impressive prior. Change of scenery & coaching could get him back to MLB prospect like he was. Talent has been there. He profiles more as a 4th OF but A's OF depth is pretty ugly.

[Jenkins5]

Also I know Insaid I won't earlier but maybe trading Broxton would be fine. We platoon Brinson & Phillips out there & play match ups that are best for their strengths (CC is good at that). Braun needs his days off, Santana here & there so there should be ABs there.

[trwi7]

I'm not sure Broxton has the trade value to pick up anyone who's going to make an actual difference and he's gotten pretty much worse across the board compared to last year. Maybe if he was 24 you could hope that he'd figure out the strikeout problems but at 27, this is probably his ceiling. .230/.330/.430 with a little above average defense isn't going to get us the piece we want.

[brewcrewdue80]

I feel reading these proposals it's way too much, and not enough. Most aren't in the middle ground where I think it'd probably be right.

 

I'd personally try hard to get Dubon in the trade. His light hitting just not big on when compared to Diaz. Arcia is obviously the real deal likely putting up over 12HRs a year with elite defense.

 

I'd give away Brinson just because I don't want to send away Hader, Woodruff, or Ortiz. Toss in a Diplan or Peralta SP and call it a day. You could do that whole PTBNL....which I really like based on the results for a guy who is so risky. Maybe you include that ptbnl on likes of Gatewood, Harrison, Clark, Ponce...Kirby? Give both sides a longer look on that list as well as how well Gray performs for Milwaukee.

[reillymcshane]

I’m not necessarily hyped up about trading for Gray, but I’m going to have a little fun and just see what might work.

 

First, let’s look at Gray WAR:

 

bWAR values

2014: 3.2

2015: 5.8

2016: -0.5

2017: 1.6 (thus far)

 

fWAR values

2014: 3.1

2015: 3.7

2016: 0.7

2017: 1.7 (thus far)

 

Looking at these number, I’m going to make a leap and give Gray a value of 3.0 WAR for 2017 - and for kicks and grins, let’s give him that value for 2018 and 2019 (the years he is under contract).

 

That would give him a value of roughly 7.5 WAR over the next 2.5 years.

 

One WAR is worth $8M. That means Gray’s WAR over the course of his contract is roughly $60M.

 

Gray makes about $3.6 this year - so let’s just say that he is owed about $1.5M for 2017. If he continues to produce at a 3.0 WAR, you can probably guess his arby raises in 2018 and 2019 will be about $7M and $11M - give or take a million or two. That is roughly $18M total. Add in the remaining salary for 2017 - and Gray is predicted to make about $20M.

 

We’ve already determined that Gray is worth $60M over the next 2.5 years. He’s only getting paid about $20M - so he has a surplus value of about $40M. That means Milwaukee has to come up with about $40M in value for Oakland to make the trade equal (probably more since it's a sellers market - but we'll get to that later).

 

So, how do you value minor league prospects? I’ll use this handy chart done by Fangraphs this past March:

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/valuing-the-2017-top-100-prospects/

 

It should be noted that hitters have higher value as prospects since they don’t flame as much.

 

Now, we’ve had 3+ months of baseball and the rankings of the players is going to change. But we can still use the slots. Example: we are pretty sure that right now Corey Ray would not come in at #20 on the list as he did in March. But that doesn’t mean he couldn't be worth around the #90 slot or so. So, I have made guesses - and things fall apart if I'm way off. But this is just for fun.

 

So, how do we get $40+M in prospects to Oakland?

 

I know BA and Keith Law have updated their mid-season lists, but most places have not. So we have to take some stabs at things, looking at the rankings from this spring, as well as new rankings, and the performance of the players. Here's my guesses:

 

Brewer Players:

 

Luis Ortiz: $14M value (guessing he’ll come in in the 75-100 range of prospects)

Josh Hader: $22M value (guessing he falls in the #25-75 range of prospects)

Brinson: $50M value (guessing he is a 15-30 range of prospects). This means he could fall into two buckets on the value list - but I sort of picked a middle spot.

Ray: $20M value (this was a tough one, as he was very high earlier this year, but has fallen hard. Some analysts might not even see him as a top 100 guy, while others might have him a lot higher. I’ll give him a ranking in the back part of the Top 100).

 

Woodruff, Diaz, Erceg, Clark - a lot of these guys have faded, and I doubt there’s a consensus that they would make all the Top 100 lists. These kinds of players still have value - but more like $5-10M - instead of $20M.

 

Corbin Burnes, on the other hand, made Keith Law’s Top 50. But that’s a huge leap - and I don’t know if anyone sees him as that good. For that reason, I’m going to not use him. He’s just really tough to assign a value.

 

So, how do you get to $40M to acquire Brinson? Also, would $40M be enough? I’m guessing we have to pay a premium to make a move at this time. So we’ll try and build in for that.

 

Option #1: Brinson. His $50M value is enough to cover the $40M Gray is worth - and a nice 25% bonus.

Option #2: Hader and Ray + a kicker: The first two guys are $42M of value. That’s covers the basic price of Gray. We’d probably need to throw in another 100-200 player to add $5-10M in value to the deal. I’m guessing a guy like Diplan or Cordell.

Option #3: Ray and Ortiz and two kickers: Ray and Ortiz are worth $34M. We’d have to give two extra players - like Diplan and Cordell to bump up the value.

 

With these on the table, I would lean toward Option #3. Why? Milwaukee has two solid right handed starters in Woodruff and Burnes. That makes Ortiz a bit more easy to part with. Ortiz is attractive as he isn't too far from the majors. Who doesn't like a starting pitcher?

 

As for Ray, the A’s are immensely thin in the outfield in the minors, so Ray can really help. I’d add in Cordell - a guy who might not be a star, but could easily become a starter right now for them. We'd also need to send another player. Maybe someone in the 15-30 range.

 

So, Gray for Ray, Ortiz, Cordell and a little something extra. Again, I'm overpaying for Gray, because I'm guessing that's what we'd have to do to close the deal.

 

The issue is that Ray and Ortiz are not having great seasons. If Ray was hitting .270ish like he was a while ago (before going into a 3-39 slump in July), he'd be way more attractive. But neither guy is tearing things up - and we'd be selling low (especially on Ray). Oakland might just not see them as that great.

 

Anyhow, this was just an exercise for fun.

 

Another way to determine surplus trade value for prospects is found here: http://www.thepointofpittsburgh.com/mlb-prospect-surplus-values-2016-updated-edition/

 

It's like the Fangraphs chart - but a little more segmented, and people might find it of interest.

 

Man, this was a long post. Sorry, but I was figuring out what might be a fair deal using WAR and surplus value - and I figured I'd share it.

[MrTPlush]

I know our pitching down in the minors has been terrible for years, but getting overly attached would be a total travesty. Trade Brinson instead of Woodruff/Ortiz? Yikes...I don't know about that. There is a pretty massive talent/value gap between those guys in my opinion. Preferring to trade a 5 tool OFer over a mid rotation guy is a bit concerning.

 

Now wanting to trade Erceg over Peralta because you want to keep the pitching is a little more understandable since their value would be more in line.

[clancyphile]

What about a package centering around Davies and Jungmann with Ray and Wren?

 

Give the A's two pitchers, a stopgap CF (Wren's stuck behind other players), and a CF prospect?

[trwi7]

What about a package centering around Davies and Jungmann with Ray and Wren?

 

Give the A's two pitchers, a stopgap CF (Wren's stuck behind other players), and a CF prospect?

 

Come on. Oakland doesn't even consider that for a second.

[MrTPlush]

What about a package centering around Davies and Jungmann with Ray and Wren?

 

Give the A's two pitchers, a stopgap CF (Wren's stuck behind other players), and a CF prospect?

 

I think a package centered around Tim Dillard would suffice.

[A Swing and A Drive]

Why does every trade proposal include us getting a rotation arm in return? I don't see the immediately need to upgrade from Nelson, Chase, Guerra, Garza, Davies. Especially when we have Woodruff waiting in the wings this year. People were DYING for Woodruff to be up earlier now it's crickets because this team is clicking hard and looking really good so now all of a sudden people are turning to giving up several top prospects for one rotation arm.

 

A solid pen arm is what they need most.

 

All last year it was people whining about Phillips and Nottingham and now it's turned to the Mudcats team. Zero patience here. Zero big picture thinking

 

 

And if the Brewers would have been in this position last season, Brewer fans and prospect hounds would have said that Phillips and Nottingham are "untouchables" in any trade.

 

Now a full year later, those prospects "shine" has worn off a bit and the reality of it is that those guys could not come close to headlining a deal for a significant trade deadline piece like Quintana. Phillips could maybe be a 3rd piece in a trade and Nottingham would almost be just a throw in at this point.

 

I'm sorry but our current rotation is filled with question marks and guys with short track records of success.

 

I think most Brewer fans would pick Jimmy Nelson to pitch Game 1 of a playoff game at this point.

 

I hope his breakout is real, but let's not forget that this is a guy who didn't even have a rotation spot of his own entering this season and lost 16 games last year with a 4.62 ERA and an awful 1.52 WHIP.

 

Anderson and Guerra are hurt.

 

Garza and Davies can not be consistently counted on to pitch well.

 

Woodruff is a rookie who's also going to be coming off injury. Growing pains at MLB level are the norm.

 

And I'm not as convinced that the Brewers need a arm for the pen as bad as some do. Knebel, Barnes and Hughes have all been pretty solid. Drake is like a right handed LOOGY. Hader has been good when used. Torres is a veteran with a long track record of success. Stearns just traded for LHP bullpen depth with Tyler Webb and picked Jeanmar Gomez off the waiver wire.

[OnaBadger58]

I'm sorry but our current rotation is filled with question marks and guys with short track records of success.

This can be said about literally the whole entire team minus Braun.

[A Swing and A Drive]

Actually Braun's spotty health makes him a question mark as well.

 

lol

[82brewcrew82]

What about a package centering around Davies and Jungmann with Ray and Wren?

 

Give the A's two pitchers, a stopgap CF (Wren's stuck behind other players), and a CF prospect?

 

Come on. Oakland doesn't even consider that for a second.

 

I don't think it's too far off. maybe something like Broxton, Jungmann, Ray and Diplan.

[Brewer Fever]

Here Oakland, please avail yourself of our poo poo platter

[JosephC]

 

I think most Brewer fans would pick Jimmy Nelson to pitch Game 1 of a playoff game at this point.

 

I hope his breakout is real, but let's not forget that this is a guy who didn't even have a rotation spot of his own entering this season and lost 16 games last year with a 4.62 ERA and an awful 1.52 WHIP.

 

 

Sonny Gray had a 5.69 ERA and 1.50 WHIP last year.

 

Average WAR between Baseball Reference and Fangraphs:

 

2017 (so far):

Jimmy Nelson = 2.8

Chase Anderson = 2.3

Sonny Gray = 1.6

 

2016:

Chase Anderson = 0.8

Jimmy Nelson = 0.6

Sonny Gray = 0.1

[Madhawk23]

What about a package centering around Davies and Jungmann with Ray and Wren?

 

Give the A's two pitchers, a stopgap CF (Wren's stuck behind other players), and a CF prospect?

 

I think a package centered around Tim Dillard would suffice.

 

Well, he would instantly elevate the A's to one of the most interesting social media teams in the league! There has to be some value in that, right? Ha.

 

Yeah, I think we need to be more realistic in our prospect packages here, as Oakland would laugh Stearns right off the phone if we offered up a deal that included Davies and Jungmann as headliners (along with a struggling Corey Ray). Ray and another top prospect like Dubon, Burnes or Ortiz - maybe? But, Davies or Jungmann (especially Taylor) would be "throw-in's" to any deal.

[A Swing and A Drive]

Good points madtownhawk.

 

In fact when I started this thread, I was hoping that we could get Gray with a package headlined by Corey Ray, with the 2nd and 3rd pieces being solid (Dubon and Clark).

 

And the majority of posters thought that it was an INSANE amount to give up for him.

 

But now that the market has been set with the Quintana trade somewhat, I don't think there's a snowballs chance in hell that Oakland would accept that offer.

[Mudville9]

I'm no expert on current values, but would it be possible to swap Gray for Santana? A's need OF's and he has enough control left to make him valuable. We could plug in Brinson, Phillips in RF and not lose a whole lot in offense. This way we could get our starter and not have to give up a ton of prospects hopefully and wreck the rebuild. I have to admit I like Santana a lot as he's only 24 so he could definitely be argued to be a part of the next playoff team. This might be a compromise between those who want a starter and those who don't want to give up "prospects".