Sonny Gray- Let's GO FOR IT! Here's a plan...

[DocLuna7]

Let's get him!

 

In all seriousness, I think the A's are going to get a haul for him.

 

Can/should the Brewers trade what it would take to land him?

 

Most astute fans say NO. Sonny is a Free Agent after 2019 season and he doesn't fit the Brewers window to contend.

 

I say YES.

 

Here's why...

 

The Brewers could simply "rent" Sonny for exactly one year. And in doing so, swap out OF prospects for SP prospects.

 

Hear me out...

 

This month the Brewers trade

 

OF Corey Ray (our offer might get beat if we don't include Brinson instead, however)

OF Trent Clark

MI Maurcio Dubon

RHP Marcos Diplan (they could demand Woodruff instead)

for

RHP Sonny Gray

 

We try to contend this season and see if we are still contending next July.

 

If so, we keep Sonny until 2019 deadline and trade him (though we will get less of a return)

If not, we trade Sonny to a 2018 contender with a high-end SP prospect the headliner in the deal.

 

So basically Brewers would be trading Clark,Dubon and Diplan for a year of Sonny Gray and flipping OF Corey Ray (or Brinson) for a similar valued SP prospect.

 

Since we are kinda stuck with Braun, we have to move some of our glut of OF prospects for pitching prospects anyway, IMO.

 

Since it's nearly impossible and rare for teams to do "prospect for prospect" type deals, this is like a work-around to accomplish it.

 

And if the Brewers stay contenders this year and the next two years, they would have option to keep Sonny as a Top of the Rotation starter until he's a free agent if they want.

 

The same can be done for someone like Quintana, but I don't like him as much and think he'll cost more.

 

Thoughts?

 

I don't mind trading prospects for a veteran difference maker under the right circumstances but for Sonny Grey? It seems like some on this thread are severely overestimating him in my humble opinion

[Humans Need Water]

This is why I would ask them about a Guerra/Broxton/Cooper/Peralta type package for Gray/Doolittle

 

Oakland isn't going to just accept our junk and a few OK prospects for one of the top available deadline arms. Cooper is having a hell of a year in AAA but he's 26 and has yet to do anything in the major leagues. Guerra is struggling big time and has one year wonder written all over him. Broxton is a decent player and Peralta is a decent prospect but they can't be centerpieces in a deal for Gray. Oakland will want at least Hader or Woodruff plus another top prospect.

"This is why I would ASK them....". It's not an offer if you're kicking the tires about what type of package a team might be interested in (i.e. all prospects or MLB/prospects combo). Just because someone is one of the top available players at their position at the deadline doesn't mean teams should overpay for that specific talent. Guerra has outperformed Gray the past 1.5yrs. MLB starters with 4-5yrs of control are worth plenty. Broxton is a 5 tool CF who flashes above average as a player but is inconsistent at this point, which is why he's average. I bet you were still calling Guerra our "ace" 2-3wks ago. Now they're both junk? Cooper has hit at every level and, while not a HR threat, will hit gaps, get on base at a decent clip and play solid defense. Not every position player needs to have a 800+ OPS to start and contribute (and his worst OPS seasons are like 765-770 area in a Biloxi type environment). While he lacks MLB experience, he's MLB ready. Just needs an opportunity. Peralta has been nothing shy of very impressive the past 1.5yrs between A, A+ and now past couple starts in AA (as a 21yr old). He's leapfrogged Diplan, Ponce, Lopez in our system.

 

I initially thought about Cordell in place of Cooper because the A's OF is brutal and there's no prospects. He's basically MLB ready too and him and Broxton would start immediately and be upgrades on both sides of the ball compared to what they have now. I also had Coulombe in there with Gray but typed Doolittle instead for some reason. Coulombe doesn't have near the track record of Doolittle but has more control and is younger.

 

I don't know why I even bothered with this as I don't even want us to trade for a rotation arm. I want them to turn to Woodruff if need be. Although I like Coulombe as a controllable lefty pen arm and he could be had for a Cordell + 1?

[Humans Need Water]

This is the second time in 5 minutes I"ve seen someone put Cooper in a trade like he actually has value. Until he got to Colorado Springs the only times he posted an OPS of .800 or better was as a 22 year old in 70 plate appearances in the Pioneer League, a 23 year old in 19 plate appearances in the Arizona League, a 23 year old in 32 plate appearances in the Midwest League and a 24 year old in 36 plate appearances in the Southern League.

 

That track record is a lot closer to being available on waivers than having actual trade value.

Is 780 in the same vacinity as 800? Because that's what he had in A as a rookie. What about 792? Had that in Brevard (A+). 768 in AA (Biloxi) last year. All these amazing hitting environments he's been in. And he's done that without hitting HR or having a crazy awesome BB rate, which means he's hitting (and pounding gaps). Subtract CS and he's probably around a 290 minor league hitter with 800 OPS (800+ for A and AA career...and AAA for that matter). He needs an opportunity and he's blocked here. He's been under appreciated and under the radar because of his age but he can hit

[trwi7]

Wait, now it's apparently good that he doesn't hit homers or have good walk rates? He's a 26 year old basically non-prospect that's boosting his numbers in the best hitting environment in baseball.

 

If we put him on the trade market by himself he would maybe return like an Aaron Wilkerson type who we got for Aaron Hill. He's not getting us anything and teams aren't going to value him as some valuable piece in a trade package. They'd take him as like a 4th or 5th piece and maybe hope he can be an average 1B or something but if he's in a trade you're going to need to come with much bigger headliners and secondary pieces than Ray, Clark and Dubon.

[brewcrewdue80]

Gotta Love having to send our last 2 1st rd picks and more and still not being enough for a guy we didnt pick twice in 2012.

[Never Outhustled]

I like this proposal because Ray has turned out to be as bad as I predicted on draft day. He's only a couple of months younger than Brinson and Phillips, has shown zero improvement, and is the worst hitting OF on the Carolina team. Deal him now while the illusion remains of him being a valuable prospect.

 

Replace Clark with Phillips, Oakland will want someone who can be called up now.

[paul253]

"This is why I would ASK them....". It's not an offer if you're kicking the tires about what type of package a team might be interested in (i.e. all prospects or MLB/prospects combo).

 

I get it. But we could ask them about Sonny Gray for Tyrone Talyor and Clint Coulter. I guess what I was getting at is that I doubt Oakland would even consider a package like that so it seems like kind of a waste of time to ask about it. You are talking about an outfielder who is ok, a pitcher who is struggling big time and has only had one year of success ever, and two borderline prospects, one of who probably isn't even an organizational top 30 prospect. I'm sorry but that's just not going to do it.

 

Just because someone is one of the top available players at their position at the deadline doesn't mean teams should overpay for that specific talent

 

Teams should never overpay but they often do because of the circumstances. The fact that Gray is one of the top available arms means Oakland will be asking a lot. And even if you don't overpay you will have to give up someone of value. I just don't think any one of those four players you mention really have any trade value. Like I said I think they'll demand either Hader or Woodruff plus another top prospect. Even though I'm not a huge fan of Gray if we can get him for Hader and Ray I'd seriously consider it.

[Montezuma]

Not in favor of letting a lefty go in a trade... Suter and Hader are a huge commodity for our current and future teams

[A Swing and A Drive]

That trade isn't even remotely in the ballpark and its so far out of this world I have almost no words and absolutely positively HELL no are we trading those guys unless we're getting Kershaw or Trout, much less Sonny Gray.

 

Ray, Clark, Dubon and Diplan only if we get Kershaw or Trout?

 

I mean there is overrating top prospects... and then there is this.

 

In my proposal, the Brewers even create a package without giving up Hader, Brinson or Woodruff, who are our most valuable and MLB ready prospects.

 

My goodness. I can honestly say the A's would almost certainly TURN DOWN this offer for Sonny.

[bigred]

If DS called the Dodgers or Angels, and offered a trade package like that for Kershaw or Trout, it wouldn't surprise me if they would laugh, and tell him to never call them again about a trade. Lol That would be an EXTREME low ball offer for players of their caliber.

[A Swing and A Drive]

Also factoring in that Kershaw and Trout both make 33 million per season, whereas Sonny is not their "caliber" he will make less than 10 million in arb the next 2 seasons.

 

I don't think the league has seen the best of Sonny Gray yet, either. I really believe in his talent and think that he can be as good as Ben Sheets in his prime.

[KCBrewerfan34]

My point was you're not going to empty the minors unless you get a superstar. you are WAY WAY off on Sonny Gray IMHO

 

 

ERA of 4 with a 1.21 WHIP so far this year and he was dreadful and I mean dreadful last year, are you trying to lose??

[HighHeat19]

Also, check Sonny's away numbers this year away from that park of an ERA of 4.85. Yeah, let's trade big prospects for that.

[pacopete4]

Also, check Sonny's away numbers this year away from that park of an ERA of 4.85. Yeah, let's trade big prospects for that.

 

 

If you look at his overall career numbers, his home and away are almost identical.

[brewcrewdue80]

Also factoring in that Kershaw and Trout both make 33 million per season, whereas Sonny is not their "caliber" he will make less than 10 million in arb the next 2 seasons.

 

I don't think the league has seen the best of Sonny Gray yet, either. I really believe in his talent and think that he can be as good as Ben Sheets in his prime.

 

Sonny is making over 3.5mil this year. Fairly basic arb rises, he'd probably staring at 6.5-7.6mil next season, and if it comes true we haven't seen the best of Sonny Gray, well you're looking at 11-13.5mil the final year, so in no way is he going to make less than 10mil the next 2 seasons....unless he's a complete piece of trash and pitches worse than Wily Peralta did...which is entirely possibly.

 

That's why I'd never target Gray in a trade because he just may be a waiver wire pitcher within 1 year for the money he's going to get being just a 4ERA pitcher.

[bigred]

Have you seen the Crews record? They're not losing even without Gray or Quintana. And of course I don't want them to lose. If you want Gray or Quintana, then DS will have to give up more than the prospects you mentioned. If they would except that offer then I'm all for it. There's no chance they would except that offer though. DS could trade a couple top prospects and the farm system would still be loaded. I'd be ok with giving a decent haul for Quintana but not for Gray. Gray is way too injury prone

[LouisEly]

Gray scratched from his start tonight...

[MrTPlush]

Gray scratched from his start tonight...

 

False...for now.

[JosephC]

Average WAR value from Fangraphs and Baseball Reference:

 

Gray:

2014 = 3.15

2015 = 4.75

2016 = 0.1

2017 = 1.3 (so far)

 

Project the 1.3 in 2017 over the full season and credit him with a 2.6 WAR for the year. Then take a four year average and Gray is a 2.65 WAR player.

 

Probably safest just to project him at that same number for 2018 and 2019. He could be much better (2015) or much worse (2016), but probably the most reasonable thing to do would to just assume he'll keep doing what he's averaged over the last few years.

 

Remainder of 2017 = 1.3 * 8.56 = 11.128

2018 = 2.65 * 9.16 = 24.274

2019 = 2.65 * 9.80 = 25.97

Total controlled value = 61.372

 

I think brewcrewdue80 arbitration estimates are right in the ballpark. I'd project the future earnings as follows:

 

Remainder of 2017 = 1.7875

2018 = 6.435

2019 = 10.9395

Total salary = 19.162

 

So I have Gray's surplus value at +42.21 million.

 

Fair packages of Brewer prospects would be as follows:

 

Package #1 = Isan Diaz (22.042) + Luis Ortiz (17.655) + Jorge Lopez (2.14)

 

Package #2 = Brandon Woodruff (17.655) + Brett Phillips (12.84) + Cody Ponce (5.35) + Jake Gatewood (5.35)

 

Package #3 = Josh Hader (17.655) + Corey Ray (12.84) + Phil Bickford (10.7) + Clint Coulter (2.14)

 

Lewis Brinson has an estimated prospect surplus value of 66.34 million, so if he's in the trade it should be something like Brinson for Gray, Ryan Madson and a decent "role-player" prospect.

[adambr2]

Gray scratched from his start tonight...

 

False...for now.

 

Yeah Gray is pitching.

[brewmann04]

Any scouts from the brewers at tonight game

[bensheeps]

A little surprised no mention of a Brewers scout in attendance with Gray starting last night

 

"With scouts from the Astros, Yankees, Red Sox, Dodgers and Blue Jays among those on hand at the Coliseum, Sonny Gray put together another strong start and in doing so probably hastened his departure from Oakland. The Cubs are among the teams that have significant interest in Gray. Although they did not have a representative in the scouts’ section Friday, they have followed him diligently during the past month."

 

Maybe Brewer scouts were there and this just another case of a media individual not realizing Milwaukee actually leads the National League Central

 

http://www.sfchronicle.com/athletics/article/Trade-target-Sonny-Gray-superb-in-A-s-win-over-11290601.php&cmpid=twitter-premium

[MrTPlush]

I mean the Cubs didn't have someone there and are "highly interested" so not have a scout the doesn't mean everything.

[Brewer Fever]

The Brewers have no better scout when it comes to Sonny Gray than their own pitching coach Derek Johnson. I have to imagine he has a pretty good idea of how successful the current version of Sonny Gray would be in a Brewers uniform. Johnson was Gray's coach at Vanderbilt. I have no doubt Johnson has been watching film of every recent Gray start. Might even be able to spot something correctable that would bring more out of Gray. On the flipside, he might also be able to assess Gray and opine that he's not worth the package it would take to get him.

[JohnBriggs12]

Gray's allowed fewer earned runs in his last 4 starts than Davies allowed last night. By all accounts, he's rounding into his 2015 form which would make him every bit as valuable as Quintana. It's step up time for Stearns. He needs to get it done before the Cubs visit Miller Park in 2 weeks.