Sonny Gray- Let's GO FOR IT! Here's a plan...

[JosephC]

I didn't take it as Florial and/or Mateo being the headliner(s) of a deal, but rather just likely pieces that the Yankees are currently scouting.

 

I also don't think it's safe to assume that if Stearns was starting a package deal for Quintana with Ray and Ortiz that he would do the same with Gray. Gray is not at good as Quintana. As demonstrated earlier, surplus value estimates could place Gray's value at less than half of Quintana's value. That being said, I put a fair estimate of Gray's surplus value at around 42 million. Based on Ray's #70 ranking on MLB's top prospect list (combined with his no-show on the Baseball America top prospect list), I will now slot Ray as a #76-#100 hitter which puts his surplus value at ~22 million. Combined with Ortiz's surplus value of ~17.6 million...combined Ray and Ortiz have about 39.6 million of surplus value and then throw in a fringe prospect and it's a pretty fair deal. So while the offer should be less for Gray, it wouldn't be unreasonable for Stearns to include Ray and Ortiz in a Gray deal.

 

Numbers-wise, the only way a Quintana to Milwaukee deal would have happened is if the Brewer offer started with Brinson. It's not surprising that Quintana is a Cub if Ray and Ortiz were the main pieces in the offer. If I took anything from this article, it's that Brinson was not on the table in a Quintana deal and if that's the case, it's very likely that Brinson is on Stearns strict no-trade list.

[reillymcshane]

I didn't take it as Florial and/or Mateo being the headliner(s) of a deal, but rather just likely pieces that the Yankees are currently scouting.

 

I also don't think it's safe to assume that if Stearns was starting a package deal for Quintana with Ray and Ortiz that he would do the same with Gray. Gray is not at good as Quintana. As demonstrated earlier, surplus value estimates could place Gray's value at less than half of Quintana's value. That being said, I put a fair estimate of Gray's surplus value at around 42 million. Based on Ray's #70 ranking on MLB's top prospect list (combined with his no-show on the Baseball America top prospect list), I will now slot Ray as a #76-#100 hitter which puts his surplus value at ~22 million. Combined with Ortiz's surplus value of ~17.6 million...combined Ray and Ortiz have about 39.6 million of surplus value and then throw in a fringe prospect and it's a pretty fair deal. So while the offer should be less for Gray, it wouldn't be unreasonable for Stearns to include Ray and Ortiz in a Gray deal.

JosephC, I think your math is pretty solid. I did this same exercise a week or so ago (before new rankings) and had Gray's suprlus value right around $40M - same as you. Ray and Ortiz get you close to that - and like you said - add in a fringe prospect or two get you over the top (and then some). Like it or not, we probably have to overpay a little - but you certainly don't want to overdo it.

 

A lot may simply depend on the A's feelings about Ray. His down season may him not worth it to Oakland. They may be a team that sees him as high bust probability due to his struggles this year. I guess the Crew may be reluctant to sell low on Ray - especially if they still feel he has all-star capabilities.

[Boomer5]

http://nypost.com/2017/07/25/the-yankees-prospects-as-covet-in-sonny-gray-sweepstakes/

 

So the Brewers offer for Quintana started with Ray and Ortiz...I imagine this is the beginning of their offer for Gray as well. Depending on the third piece, this is exactly who I would be most comfortable moving in a Gray deal.

 

That's about what we expected. Ortiz is interesting but has conditioning concerns. Ray isn't much of anything but he was still the 5th pick in the draft. I'd say the third guy would have to be someone who was considered top 10-15 prospect entering the season.

[reillymcshane]

Brinson was pulled from the Colorado Springs line up this evening after one at bat. No word why. Adam McCalvy says he has NOT been traded and he is NOT injured.

 

Leads to some speculation that perhaps Phillips is going somewhere - and Brinson is coming to Milwaukee.

 

Just speculation.

 

This could also involve some kind of deal with Detroit - perhaps a Kinsler/Wilson package sent to Milwaukee, with Phillips heading to Detroit. They would love a major league ready CF.

 

Again, just throwing this info out there.

[paul253]

If we can acquire Gray for Ray, Ortiz, and another prospect (who would presumably be lesser than those two) we'd be fools not to do so in my opinion.

[stoutdude04]

I think they are seeing a lot of lefties in a row.

[A Swing and A Drive]

Phillips, Ortiz and a top 10-15 range prospect could likely beat any Yankee offer for Sonny.

[superfly]

I'd give Brinson + for Manaea for that extra control (and I think he's better), but not for Gray, nor do I think Oakland would require him be in the package.

[paul253]

Phillips, Ortiz and a top 10-15 range prospect could likely beat any Yankee offer for Sonny.

 

Yeah if Morosi's report is true and the Yankees are making progress on obtaining both Gray and Alonso without including Torres, Sheffield or Frazier in the deal then we should absolutely outbid them.

[Lee16]

Brinson was pulled from the Colorado Springs line up this evening after one at bat. No word why. Adam McCalvy says he has NOT been traded and he is NOT injured.

 

Leads to some speculation that perhaps Phillips is going somewhere - and Brinson is coming to Milwaukee.

 

Just speculation.

 

This could also involve some kind of deal with Detroit - perhaps a Kinsler/Wilson package sent to Milwaukee, with Phillips heading to Detroit. They would love a major league ready CF.

 

Again, just throwing this info out there.

 

I think they had to wait for the medicals to check out on the Cordell/Swarzak trade. And when they did, late at night, they pulled the trigger on a Sonny Gray trade involving Phillips and Hader. Maybe Stearns wanted to see one more start from Gray, and he looked good last night. So, knowing he had a replacement for Hader with Swarzak, he made the Gray deal.

 

Just a shot in the dark. I am probably way off base.

[MrTPlush]

I was thinking Brett Phillips as a good piece for a Verlander led package coming from Detroit, but I think there is too much interest from teams other than us where he would likely veto in hope for a trade to the Cubs etc.

[DocLuna7]

Phillips, Ortiz and a top 10-15 range prospect could likely beat any Yankee offer for Sonny.

 

Not sure that we should want to though. Even that is a hefty price to pay for a number 3 starter.

[jjfanec]

In his last 15 starts Sonny Gray has allowed 5 earned runs once, 4 earned runs once, 3 runs 3 times and 2 or less 10 times. If that is a number 3 starter then we are in great shape. His biggest negative is he doesn't seem to go deep in games averaging just over 6 innings a start over that span. However just being able to face a pitchers spot a couple times a game could help that a little.

 

I would definitely do a Ray, Ortiz type deal. Can't see why Oakland would. Philips Ortiz would be harder but I would probably say yes. No on anything involving brinson

[paul253]

I'll add that in July he's 3-1 with a 1.48 ERA and a 25/7 K/BB ratio in 24.1 innings.

[A Swing and A Drive]

Phillips, Ortiz and a top 10-15 range prospect could likely beat any Yankee offer for Sonny.

 

Not sure that we should want to though. Even that is a hefty price to pay for a number 3 starter.

 

If he can stay healthy, there is almost zero doubt in my mind that by this time next year Gray will be considered a bonafide ACE throughout baseball.

 

I'm not sure what "Number 3 Starters" finish in the Top 3 of voting for CY YOUNG AWARDS at a very young age.

[JosephC]

Updated surplus value estimates for Brewer prospects (including Josh Hader and Brent Suter):

 

66.34 million - Lewis Brinson (hitter 11-25)

22.042 million - Corey Ray, Isan Diaz (hitter 76-100)

17.655 million - Josh Hader (pitcher 51-75)

17.441 million - Keston Hiura (back end of top 100 hitter/barely outside list)

17.1735 million - Luis Ortiz, Brandon Woodruff (between pitcher 51-75 and pitcher 76-100)

12.84 million - Corbin Burnes (back end of top 100 pitcher/barely outside list)

10.7 million - Brett Phillips, Trent Clark, Mauricio Dubon, Lucas Erceg, Tristen Lutz, Monte Harrison ("top 10 organizational prospect")

7.49 million - Phil Bickford, Marcos Diplan, Freddy Peralta (between "top 10 organizational prospect" and "role player prospect")

5.35 million - Jacob Nottingham, Cody Ponce, Jake Gatewood, Brent Suter, KJ Harrison, Trey Supak ("role player prospect")

2.14 million - all other prospects ("fringe prospect")

[DocLuna7]

Phillips, Ortiz and a top 10-15 range prospect could likely beat any Yankee offer for Sonny.

 

Not sure that we should want to though. Even that is a hefty price to pay for a number 3 starter.

 

If he can stay healthy, there is almost zero doubt in my mind that by this time next year Gray will be considered a bonafide ACE throughout baseball.

 

I'm not sure what "Number 3 Starters" finish in the Top 3 of voting for CY YOUNG AWARDS at a very young age.

 

Yeah man. We get that you like Sonny Gray. We get it to the point that many people think you are trolling on these boards because you post about it numerous times per day and mock and condescend to people who don't value a short statured injury prone guy who had a 5 plus ERA last season as much as you do. And just because a guy won third place for the Cy Young Award a few years ago prior to an injury does not mean that he is the next Sandy Koufax or that we should give up the farm for him in 2017. As I have stated many times sure, Gray is fine in the right deal. I for one would rather either save our prospects or use them in a trade to acquire a better quality pitcher at some point in the off-season. You have indicated time and again that you would be willing to give up way more than I think most people would think proper for a guy with a lot of question marks. It's ok that you highly rate him and it's ok that a lot of posters here do not rate him nearly as highly. I think your condescension is getting old though.

[A Swing and A Drive]

Yeah man. You've posted your opinion about Gray as many times as I have mine.

 

That's what the forums are here for. Opinions. None are right or wrong but yours are just as "condescending" and old even if you don't think so.

 

According to JosephC's awesome surplus value estimates a few posts up, a $13M surplus valued player would likely needed to be added to Phillips, Ortiz to land Sonny.

 

You shouldn't lose any sleep though, I'm sure an great organization like the Yankees will land Gray anyway.

[Oldcity]

If we can acquire Gray for Ray, Ortiz, and another prospect (who would presumably be lesser than those two) we'd be fools not to do so in my opinion.

 

Of course, but I see no way Oakland takes that offer.

[DocLuna7]

Yeah man. You've posted your opinion about Gray as many times as I have mine.

 

That's what the forums are here for. Opinions. None are right or wrong but yours are just as "condescending" and old even if you don't think so.

 

According to JosephC's awesome surplus value estimates a few posts up, a $13M surplus valued player would likely needed to be added to Phillips, Ortiz to land Sonny.

 

You shouldn't lose any sleep though, I'm sure an great organization like the Yankees will land Gray anyway.

 

And ironically with the Yankees he would be their number three starter.

[A Swing and A Drive]

Updated surplus value estimates for Brewer prospects (including Josh Hader and Brent Suter):

 

66.34 million - Lewis Brinson (hitter 11-25)

22.042 million - Corey Ray, Isan Diaz (hitter 76-100)

17.655 million - Josh Hader (pitcher 51-75)

17.441 million - Keston Hiura (back end of top 100 hitter/barely outside list)

17.1735 million - Luis Ortiz, Brandon Woodruff (between pitcher 51-75 and pitcher 76-100)

12.84 million - Corbin Burnes (back end of top 100 pitcher/barely outside list)

10.7 million - Brett Phillips, Trent Clark, Mauricio Dubon, Lucas Erceg, Tristen Lutz, Monte Harrison ("top 10 organizational prospect")

7.49 million - Phil Bickford, Marcos Diplan, Freddy Peralta (between "top 10 organizational prospect" and "role player prospect")

5.35 million - Jacob Nottingham, Cody Ponce, Jake Gatewood, Brent Suter, KJ Harrison, Trey Supak ("role player prospect")

2.14 million - all other prospects ("fringe prospect")

 

Thought this was interesting:

 

Joseph C's surplus values on proposal that started this thread FYI

 

RHP Sonny Gray $42M Surplus Value

 

OF Corey Ray $22.042M Surplus Value

OF Trent Clark $10.7M Surplus Value

MI Maurcio Dubon $10.7M Surplus Value

RHP Marcos Diplan $7.49M Surplus Value

Brewers Package Total= $50.932

 

By these estimates, the proposal could be considered a slight overpay, however, I think the Brewers would need to do that if they are having a potential weaker headliner to the trade (Corey Ray) vs. a better one that they would want to give up or one another bidding club would offer.

[A Swing and A Drive]

Yeah man. You've posted your opinion about Gray as many times as I have mine.

 

That's what the forums are here for. Opinions. None are right or wrong but yours are just as "condescending" and old even if you don't think so.

 

According to JosephC's awesome surplus value estimates a few posts up, a $13M surplus valued player would likely needed to be added to Phillips, Ortiz to land Sonny.

 

You shouldn't lose any sleep though, I'm sure an great organization like the Yankees will land Gray anyway.

 

And ironically with the Yankees he would be their number three starter.

 

LOL...agree to disagree.

 

I'd take Sonny's talent over either Tanaka or Severino actually.

[OnaBadger58]

Yeah man. You've posted your opinion about Gray as many times as I have mine.

 

That's what the forums are here for. Opinions. None are right or wrong but yours are just as "condescending" and old even if you don't think so.

 

According to JosephC's awesome surplus value estimates a few posts up, a $13M surplus valued player would likely needed to be added to Phillips, Ortiz to land Sonny.

 

You shouldn't lose any sleep though, I'm sure an great organization like the Yankees will land Gray anyway.

 

And ironically with the Yankees he would be their number three starter.

 

LOL...agree to disagree.

 

I'd take Sonny's talent over either Tanaka or Severino actually.

Over Severino? Really? I wouldn't go that far. But there is no way Sonny Gray is the Yankees #3 starter.

[DocLuna7]

FWIW CC has pretty much the same ERA

[sveumrules]

Gray & Sabathia have almost identical ERAs, but Sonny's peripherals support his as being legit much more than CC's do.

 

23.5 K% & 7.5 BB% for Gray compared to 18.9 K% & 9.3 BB% for Sabathia. Sonny also gets more groundballs (56.7% to 50.2%) and gets less hard contact (28.4% to 32.3%).

 

The only area where CC really has him beat is strand rate at 76.9% to 64.6% so far this year. Gray has struggled in this area each of the last two seasons while CC has beat his career average each of the last three years. Could be noise or could be partly explained by skill as some pitchers do have trouble out of the stretch.

 

With less team control & more injury concerns Gray should require less of a return than Quintana so if we could do something like Ray, one of Peralta/Diplan/Supak, and a couple lower level pieces I would go for it. If a deal can't get done without including one of Woodruff/Ortiz/Burnes I'd be out.