Sonny Gray- Let's GO FOR IT! Here's a plan...

[mlloyd10]

Gray is a #3 on a non playoff team. #4 on a playoff team. And a #5 on a World Series team.

 

Gray is the #1 on the A's sooooooo

[A Swing and A Drive]

So you think we should make a trade for what according to you is a #2/3 starting pitcher, so he can be the best pitcher in our rotation and that will be enough to make a playoff run? If you really think that low of both Nelson and Anderson, I would think you'd be advocating to do nothing as even adding Gray wouldn't be remotely enough to stay in the race.

 

Both Nelson and Anderson have made measurable improvements to their stuff since last year, and Nelson has made significant command improvements which will admittedly be tough to know whether that part will stick around. Seeing improved results based solely on their improved stuff shouldn't be surprising.

 

Part of the reason I am as anti-Gray as I am is that I don't think he'd be enough. I think his stuff right now is that of a #3 that plays up due to command/pitchability. I'm not confident in him maintaining that stuff for much longer. If we are going to make a run, it's going to be due to the offense catching fire again down the stretch. 1 starting pitcher won't be enough.

 

Gray is not a rental. He would be acquired NOT just to help the team that happens to be in contention this year, but for the next two years as well. If you read the first page of this thread, it outlines a plan for the Brewers to use their prospect depth to acquire Gray for the next calendar year or two and then trade him for a high-end pitching prospect. Since prospect for prospect trades simply don't happen, it's a workaround to turn our prospect OF depth into future pitching prospects, while "renting" Sonny Gray as a bonus for up to 2 years.

[FVBrewerFan]

Nice plan until Gray is injured or just not very good when it comes time to flip him again.

[Fear The Chorizo]

Attempting to gauge a starting pitcher's trade value about 2 years from now is a fool's errand. Injuries, performance, which teams competing in 2 years would actually be a fit and have prospects worth trading for...too many moving parts to be realistic.

[paul253]

So you think we should make a trade for what according to you is a #2/3 starting pitcher, so he can be the best pitcher in our rotation and that will be enough to make a playoff run

 

As I said, teams are allowed to make more than one trade. I think they need to add a reliever too. I think those two moves will definitely keep us in contention yes. And then there's 2018 and 2019 as well.

 

If you really think that low of both Nelson and Anderson, I would think you'd be advocating to do nothing as even adding Gray wouldn't be remotely enough to stay in the race.

 

I guess I don't consider pointin out how they are both pitching considerably better than they ever have is "thinking low of them". You need to be realistic. Chances of this being their new norm are remote. But even if they aren't so what? Now you have another good pitcher.

 

If we are going to make a run, it's going to be due to the offense catching fire again down the stretch. 1 starting pitcher won't be enough

 

I've never said it would be enough. Definitely the offense needs to improve. I just don't understand how adding a good starting pitcher doesn't help our team.

 

Gray is a #3 on a non playoff team. #4 on a playoff team. And a #5 on a World Series team

 

Come on. The 5 on a World Series team sometimes doesn't even make the roster. You're telling me that he wouldn't even make the roster or if he did he wouldn't make a start? How many teams have three, let alone four starting pitchers better than Gray.

[paul253]

Nice plan until Gray is injured or just not very good when it comes time to flip him again.

 

Or a great plan when he continues to pitch like he has of the course of most of his career and then Hader sticks in the bullpen and Woodruff pulls a Peralta and gets DFAd in four years. We can all make assumptions as to what is going to happen but the fact is none of us know. Gray could very well spend most of the next two seasons hurt. He could also spend the next two seasons pitching like he did in 2015 and receive Cy Young votes.

 

I just don't understand this reliance people want to have on our pitching prospects. Hasn't history taught you anything? The liklihod that they all reach their potential is almost nil.

[DocLuna7]

Nice plan until Gray is injured or just not very good when it comes time to flip him again.

 

Or a great plan when he continues to pitch like he has of the course of most of his career and then Hader sticks in the bullpen and Woodruff pulls a Peralta and gets DFAd in four years. We can all make assumptions as to what is going to happen but the fact is none of us know. Gray could very well spend most of the next two seasons hurt. He could also spend the next two seasons pitching like he did in 2015 and receive Cy Young votes.

 

I just don't understand this reliance people want to have on our pitching prospects. Hasn't history taught you anything? The liklihod that they all reach their potential is almost nil.

 

I think some of you that are pro trading for Sonny Gray are just assuming that people are overrating our prospects or banking on our current pitchers or pitching prospects to pan out. I am not. I am saying that Gray specifically isn't worth targeting with some of our guys given his injury history, his current status of being overvalued on the trade market, and that I do not believe that he will ever be more than a number three.

[KeithStone53151]

Nice plan until Gray is injured or just not very good when it comes time to flip him again.

 

Or a great plan when he continues to pitch like he has of the course of most of his career and then Hader sticks in the bullpen and Woodruff pulls a Peralta and gets DFAd in four years. We can all make assumptions as to what is going to happen but the fact is none of us know. Gray could very well spend most of the next two seasons hurt. He could also spend the next two seasons pitching like he did in 2015 and receive Cy Young votes.

 

I just don't understand this reliance people want to have on our pitching prospects. Hasn't history taught you anything? The liklihod that they all reach their potential is almost nil.

 

If all of our prospects fail, then it simply isn't meant to be and we need to draft/develop new prospects and hope some pan out. Our prospects panning out are the only way we will consistently compete. It's nice for Boston that they can trade away 2 prospects of the highest caliber/ceiling and supplement any shortcomings by throwing gobs of money at high end free-agents. The Brewers don't have that luxury. The only way we will get star caliber players is to draft/develop and bring them through the system, or trade away a ton of prospect value for 1-2 years of a star-caliber player. The more prospects we keep in the system, the better our odds. It's a numbers game, as so many prospects fail. Hence why I have no desire to dump some of our highest ceiling, near mlb ready talent for 2+ years of a #2/3 best case scenario before our team is truly ready to contend.

[DocLuna7]

Gray is not a rental. He would be acquired NOT just to help the team that happens to be in contention this year, but for the next two years as well. If you read the first page of this thread, it outlines a plan for the Brewers to use their prospect depth to acquire Gray for the next calendar year or two and then trade him for a high-end pitching prospect. Since prospect for prospect trades simply don't happen, it's a workaround to turn our prospect OF depth into future pitching prospects, while "renting" Sonny Gray as a bonus for up to 2 years.

 

Why would anyone give us a top pitching prospect for a third starter with less years under team control in a few years? Seems like some of you guys really want to buy high on Sonny because he's put together six good weeks after a seasons worth of bad starts?

[FVBrewerFan]

I've never said it would be enough. Definitely the offense needs to improve. I just don't understand how adding a good starting pitcher doesn't help our team.

 

So, to summarize, you want to give up a package that includes two top prospects (plus others) for Gray, then another 1-2 top prospects for a reliever and then you say the offense still needs to improve. Does that mean trading the rest of our top prospects for a couple bats?

 

Great, now they still may/ may not be as good as the Dodgers, Cubs, or Nationals and the best prospect left in the system is Dillard.

 

Come on. The 5 on a World Series team sometimes doesn't even make the roster. You're telling me that he wouldn't even make the roster or if he did he wouldn't make a start? How many teams have three, let alone four starting pitchers better than Gray.

 

So, to be fair, completely agree with you on this. I don't believe Gray is a number 5 starter on a WS team. I mean, it's possible, but I think that's over-stated. You could definitely win a WS with Gray as your #3 starter, certainly as the #4.

[MrTPlush]

I think some of you guys need to stop acting like standing pat and not trading any prospects is the obvious best choice. Prospects appear and disappear faster than you blink. A year ago we were losing our minds over Diaz/Erceg and now they are meh. Jorge Lopez was our next great pitcher and now he is pretty terrible.

 

No one is saying get someone now and flip them later. It is just one option if our team ends up not competing in the future. We could also hold onto them and compete. These could also be good ideas. Sonny Gray could be a bargain now vs. this winter or next deadline. Who knows. There are potential downsides to each plan and disaster situations. Holding onto prospects promises nothing.

 

I don't think there is any superior plan for this deadline. Except not targeting half year rentals...which we could all probably agree is unwise.

[FVBrewerFan]

I think some of you guys need to stop acting like standing pat and not trading any prospects is the obvious best choice. Prospects appear and disappear faster than you blink. A year ago we were losing our minds over Diaz/Erceg and now they are meh. Jorge Lopez was our next great pitcher and now he is pretty terrible.

 

No one is saying get someone now and flip them later. It is just one option if our team ends up not competing in the future. We could also hold onto them and compete. These could also be good ideas. Sonny Gray could be a bargain now vs. this winter or next deadline. Who knows. There are potential downsides to each plan and disaster situations. Holding onto prospects promises nothing.

 

I don't think there is any superior plan for this deadline. Except not targeting half year rentals...which we could all probably agree is unwise.

 

Actually, that's precisely what someone was saying. As for your first paragraph, that's exactly why you don't trade prospects right now. You don't know which ones will pan out, so you need as many of them as possible. Holding on them promises nothing, but promises more than trading them this year for a 1% chance to win the WS.

 

I have no problem trading prospects for a controllable player. (To me, controllable would be at least 4 years.) And I have no problem with a Gray type trade when the time is right, I just don't think that time is this year.

[Brewcrewin07]

I think David Stearns looking to buy at the trade deadline, is like Ted Thompson in free agency..Won't buy unless he can get them at Walmart prices. How has ignoring Free agency fared for the Packers?? It's left them with having to depend on young players for depth, and when the starters go down, they can't handle a full time role and we see what has happened in the playoffs.

 

Same thing with Stearns now..unless he can get someone at HIS cheap as cheap price, he won't do anything. I mean why do anything to try to help your team right?? especially not for just this year but in the next couple as well. Being cheap at the trade deadline, sets a bad precedent for the future if you ever want to trade with someone again..they will remember you lowballing them this time.

[Lathund]

Nice plan until Gray is injured or just not very good when it comes time to flip him again.

 

Or a great plan when he continues to pitch like he has of the course of most of his career and then Hader sticks in the bullpen and Woodruff pulls a Peralta and gets DFAd in four years. We can all make assumptions as to what is going to happen but the fact is none of us know. Gray could very well spend most of the next two seasons hurt. He could also spend the next two seasons pitching like he did in 2015 and receive Cy Young votes.

 

I just don't understand this reliance people want to have on our pitching prospects. Hasn't history taught you anything? The liklihod that they all reach their potential is almost nil.

 

If all of our prospects fail, then it simply isn't meant to be and we need to draft/develop new prospects and hope some pan out. Our prospects panning out are the only way we will consistently compete. It's nice for Boston that they can trade away 2 prospects of the highest caliber/ceiling and supplement any shortcomings by throwing gobs of money at high end free-agents. The Brewers don't have that luxury. The only way we will get star caliber players is to draft/develop and bring them through the system, or trade away a ton of prospect value for 1-2 years of a star-caliber player. The more prospects we keep in the system, the better our odds. It's a numbers game, as so many prospects fail. Hence why I have no desire to dump some of our highest ceiling, near mlb ready talent for 2+ years of a #2/3 best case scenario before our team is truly ready to contend.

 

Agree 100%.

 

Of course there are no guarantees that our prospects, any of them, will pan out. But betting on that is indeed the only way to see sustained success for a small market team. Need to take that risk in order to see any chance of a potential reward. The attitude of "we need to trade our prospects before they lose their value" will get us nowhere. We don't know which of our prospects will make it and which ones won't. That's the whole point of a deep farm system. We have an outfield logjam that at some point will need to be adressed, but it doesn't have to be right now. And it shouldn't be as part of a bidding war. A team like ours needs to build for success long term. It's about finding and maximizing value whereever we can. And that involves finding most of our core players from within, or aquiring them cheaply whenever there is a chance to do so. Which David Stearn so far has shown every sign of attempting to do with waiver claims, minor league free agent signings and such.

 

Sonny Gray to me makes sense if you believe he significantly increases our chances of going deep in the playoffs. I don't believe that to be the case, despite thinking he's a very good pitcher who will significantly improve our rotation. Maybe not an "ace", but a very good #2 type of pitcher. I believe the team needs far more than that. And so with that in mind, giving up 18(-24) years of, say, Hader/Ortiz/Woodruff/Burnes + Phillips + whichever 3rd/4th prospect(s) are involved, for 2½ years of Sonny Gray isn't worth it to me. Because I feel that's the way you have to look at it. Up until the point where you have so many pieces already in place that the (relative) certainty of high production for the short term can get you to what you desperately want; the World Series. So spending big on Quintana or Gray or Darvish or whomever makes perfect sense for the Cubs. It may make perfect sense for the Brewers in a couple of years time, when we have the offense, defense and bullpen to support them. But to me it doesn't make sense now. At least not at the prices that are seemingly being quoted. If the quoted price for Quintana or Gray was within what DS was comfortable with, I'm sure he would have done the deal. If it's more than that, you just walk away. Overpaying just because "you have to" or because "that's what it takes" or any similar reasoning is a losing game. At the stage where the Brewers are at now, ask yourself this: Would you make the same deal regardless of the current standings, or in the offseason? If yes, then it's a worthwhile trade. If not, it isn't.

[rickh150]

I think David Stearns looking to buy at the trade deadline, is like Ted Thompson in free agency..Won't buy unless he can get them at Walmart prices. How has ignoring Free agency fared for the Packers?? It's left them with having to depend on young players for depth, and when the starters go down, they can't handle a full time role and we see what has happened in the playoffs.

 

Same thing with Stearns now..unless he can get someone at HIS cheap as cheap price, he won't do anything. I mean why do anything to try to help your team right?? especially not for just this year but in the next couple as well. Being cheap at the trade deadline, sets a bad precedent for the future if you ever want to trade with someone again..they will remember you lowballing them this time.

 

If DS can be as good at GM as TT, I'll take that for the next decade..... playoffs every year and a championship.

[Brewcrewin07]

I think David Stearns looking to buy at the trade deadline, is like Ted Thompson in free agency..Won't buy unless he can get them at Walmart prices. How has ignoring Free agency fared for the Packers?? It's left them with having to depend on young players for depth, and when the starters go down, they can't handle a full time role and we see what has happened in the playoffs.

 

Same thing with Stearns now..unless he can get someone at HIS cheap as cheap price, he won't do anything. I mean why do anything to try to help your team right?? especially not for just this year but in the next couple as well. Being cheap at the trade deadline, sets a bad precedent for the future if you ever want to trade with someone again..they will remember you lowballing them this time.

 

If DS can be as good at GM as TT, I'll take that for the next decade..... playoffs every year and a championship.

 

He's wasted ARodg's prime years by never utilizing Free agency(at least in a big way) to improve the club. One Championship with Arodg is an absolute travesty...that's on TT for not acquiring the necessary talent. He's the biggest tightwad GM in all of sports. It's sickening. If DS is that passive as well, never doing whatever it takes to get over the hump, then Brewer fans will be left disappointed, and with good reason.

[adambr2]

Same thing with Stearns now..unless he can get someone at HIS cheap as cheap price, he won't do anything. I mean why do anything to try to help your team right??

 

Yes, I'm sure that's what Stearns is thinking. He's probably sitting around his office right now, thinking, 'help the Brewers? I don't even like the Brewers.'

 

Being cheap at the trade deadline, sets a bad precedent for the future if you ever want to trade with someone again..they will remember you lowballing them this time.

 

#1, that is an absolutely terrible reason to be 'not cheap' in trading, and presumably by not being cheap, be generous in what you give away. That is, however, a great way to end up restarting the rebuild again in 2 years.

 

#2, do you actually think Billy Beane is going to think in a couple years, 'Gosh darn that David Stearns. He told me he didn't want to give up Brinson in a Sonny Gray deal. I'm not even going to take his calls anymore'. That's not how it works. These guys are businessmen all trying to get the best deal for their team. They know how it works, and they're going to try to get the best deal the next time and the time after that. Remember how the Mets kind of screwed us on the Gomez near-trade 2 years ago? Remember how we still were deep in talks with them last year about trading Lucroy?

 

#3, Stearns has made many deals with many teams since coming here, pretty clear he's not afraid to deal and teams aren't afraid to deal with him. Think I'll trust his judgment over fans that tend to run on pure emotion.

[Brewcrewin07]

LOL even the Braves...yes, the Atlanta Braves(nowhere near contention) realize how smart it is to try to acquire Sonny Gray..Yet Stearns apparently doesn't...

 

[Lathund]

You link to an article that reports that both the Brewers and Braves (Among a half dozen other teams) are interested in Gray. Both teams have been linked to him, neither team has actually signed him. Yet the Braves are doing the right thing when it comes to Gray, and the Brewers aren't? At least try to make some sense.

[Brewcrewin07]

Hell even the Royals are "going for it"....But DS?? All we hear are *crickets*

[adambr2]

Hell even the Royals are "going for it"....But DS?? All we hear are *crickets*

 

He's been linked in talks to pretty much every available pitcher out there. You're just flat out trolling now.

[DocLuna7]

LOL even the Braves...yes, the Atlanta Braves(nowhere near contention) realize how smart it is to try to acquire Sonny Gray..Yet Stearns apparently doesn't...

 

 

With all due respect, why are you on this site?

[Brewcrewin07]

Hell even the Royals are "going for it"....But DS?? All we hear are *crickets*

 

He's been linked in talks to pretty much every available pitcher out there. You're just flat out trolling now.

 

DS being linked in talks with every available Pitcher...yes..but who has he acquired?? You can be linked in as many talks as you want, it's meaningless unless you acquire someone.

[FVBrewerFan]

Please don't feed the trolls. Let's just all agree. Most teams are looking at many, many players. 99% of these talks result in no deal being done. But every other GM is smart, Stearns in the other hand is stupid and cheap. Makes sense to me.

[Brewcrewin07]

LOL even the Braves...yes, the Atlanta Braves(nowhere near contention) realize how smart it is to try to acquire Sonny Gray..Yet Stearns apparently doesn't...

 

 

With all due respect, why are you on this site?

 

Because I like the Brewers...and I like watching winning baseball, and I want them to do whatever they can to win baall games, but it's just not happening..and I'm frustrated. It's okay, like the rest of the state I have Training camp opening in 3 days, and then the Brewers become irrelevant anyway.