Sonny Gray- Let's GO FOR IT! Here's a plan...

[Boomer5]

Gray would be a nice addition since Guerra proved last year was a fluke and you can't count on Garza down the stretch or certainly next year. Anderson is 30 and has never been more than a #4 type. Upticks in velocity at his age are quite frankly suspicious, like Guerra was last year.

 

The team isn't losing because of their rotation though. They are losing because the bullpen is horrible and the offense is playing like the analytics said they would; they can only score if they hit home runs because they are low average guys who strike out way to much to keep an inning going.

[Lathund]

Wrote a really long post that went into depth on team building philosophy, on scrapping the idea of rebuild vs win now philosophies and such. And then closed the browser window like the idiot that I am.

 

Anyway, the gist of it was essentially that trading for Gray, Quintana and the likes makes perfect sense for the Cubs, Astros, Dodgers and the likes. I'd say the Quintana deal would've made sense for the Cubs even at a higher price. It (Trading for someone like Gray) even makes sense for us up to a certain point; depending on what we give up. With the high demand, and the likely bidding war that's the result of that, it makes less sense. We're at the point where we are justified in strengthening, but only if it matches our valuation. You look at the value of 2,5 years of Gray vs 6 years worth of team control for the prospects you give up; and you also take into account what that extra production now of a Gray/Quintana means for your World Series chances. For the Cubs, Jimenez and Cease were probably 2 years or more away from the majors, their true value likely even further away. If their window is open for 3-4 years, they essentially gave up very little.

 

So I look at our current team. It's not bad compared to the league as a whole, but compare it to the other playoff teams and I'd say we're going to be the worst, or perhaps second worst, team in there. Sonny Gray would help us get to the playoffs, but would do very little to help us win the WS as we have several other areas that need improvement. And to me that's why you go for big trades like this, if you believe that you're just 1-2 pieces away from the WS. And I really, really don't believe we're anywhere near. And so if what we're aiming for is merely a playoff spot, and we don't have a clock ticking on our "window", then I firmly believe that the only way we should be looking at buying is if it's at the price we're comfortable with. We're a small market team, we need to maximize our value and not overpay or undersell.

 

Or perhaps in other words; is this a trade we would do in a non-deadline scenario where the current standings were of no concern, one that even in the offseason would make sense to us? If yes, do it. If no, stay away.

[clancyphile]

Wrote a really long post that went into depth on team building philosophy, on scrapping the idea of rebuild vs win now philosophies and such. And then closed the browser window like the idiot that I am.

 

Anyway, the gist of it was essentially that trading for Gray, Quintana and the likes makes perfect sense for the Cubs, Astros, Dodgers and the likes. I'd say the Quintana deal would've made sense for the Cubs even at a higher price. It (Trading for someone like Gray) even makes sense for us up to a certain point; depending on what we give up. With the high demand, and the likely bidding war that's the result of that, it makes less sense. We're at the point where we are justified in strengthening, but only if it matches our valuation. You look at the value of 2,5 years of Gray vs 6 years worth of team control for the prospects you give up; and you also take into account what that extra production now of a Gray/Quintana means for your World Series chances. For the Cubs, Jimenez and Cease were probably 2 years or more away from the majors, their true value likely even further away. If their window is open for 3-4 years, they essentially gave up very little.

 

So I look at our current team. It's not bad compared to the league as a whole, but compare it to the other playoff teams and I'd say we're going to be the worst, or perhaps second worst, team in there. Sonny Gray would help us get to the playoffs, but would do very little to help us win the WS as we have several other areas that need improvement. And to me that's why you go for big trades like this, if you believe that you're just 1-2 pieces away from the WS. And I really, really don't believe we're anywhere near. And so if what we're aiming for is merely a playoff spot, and we don't have a clock ticking on our "window", then I firmly believe that the only way we should be looking at buying is if it's at the price we're comfortable with. We're a small market team, we need to maximize our value and not overpay or undersell.

 

Or perhaps in other words; is this a trade we would do in a non-deadline scenario where the current standings were of no concern, one that even in the offseason would make sense to us? If yes, do it. If no, stay away.

 

Had the Brewers not been swept, I'd buy that they were 1-2 pieces away.

 

But they were.

 

At this point, they need upgrades at second base, in the rotation (replace Garza and Guerra), and in the bullpen.

 

Time to refine the young players they do have. If they make the playoffs, great, if not, stick to the plan.

[brewmann04]

This is one man Opinion but not sure Gray puts them over the top still a team with many Flaws

[And That]

Pretty sure Stearns does not buy into the scary/bunk "WHO KNOWS WHEN THEY'LL COMPETE AGAIN???????!!1/1??1" notion that Rosenthal is postulating and will continue rationally building the team to compete over the long haul. If he feels he can get Gray for a good price, great. If Gray costs more than he's worth, pass and try to add value some other way.

[brewmann04]

Great reply AND THAT and we know Mark not scared to add payroll

[Boomer5]

Wrote a really long post that went into depth on team building philosophy, on scrapping the idea of rebuild vs win now philosophies and such. And then closed the browser window like the idiot that I am.

 

Anyway, the gist of it was essentially that trading for Gray, Quintana and the likes makes perfect sense for the Cubs, Astros, Dodgers and the likes. I'd say the Quintana deal would've made sense for the Cubs even at a higher price. It (Trading for someone like Gray) even makes sense for us up to a certain point; depending on what we give up. With the high demand, and the likely bidding war that's the result of that, it makes less sense. We're at the point where we are justified in strengthening, but only if it matches our valuation. You look at the value of 2,5 years of Gray vs 6 years worth of team control for the prospects you give up; and you also take into account what that extra production now of a Gray/Quintana means for your World Series chances. For the Cubs, Jimenez and Cease were probably 2 years or more away from the majors, their true value likely even further away. If their window is open for 3-4 years, they essentially gave up very little.

 

So I look at our current team. It's not bad compared to the league as a whole, but compare it to the other playoff teams and I'd say we're going to be the worst, or perhaps second worst, team in there. Sonny Gray would help us get to the playoffs, but would do very little to help us win the WS as we have several other areas that need improvement. And to me that's why you go for big trades like this, if you believe that you're just 1-2 pieces away from the WS. And I really, really don't believe we're anywhere near. And so if what we're aiming for is merely a playoff spot, and we don't have a clock ticking on our "window", then I firmly believe that the only way we should be looking at buying is if it's at the price we're comfortable with. We're a small market team, we need to maximize our value and not overpay or undersell.

 

Or perhaps in other words; is this a trade we would do in a non-deadline scenario where the current standings were of no concern, one that even in the offseason would make sense to us? If yes, do it. If no, stay away.

 

Had the Brewers not been swept, I'd buy that they were 1-2 pieces away.

 

But they were.

 

At this point, they need upgrades at second base, in the rotation (replace Garza and Guerra), and in the bullpen.

 

Time to refine the young players they do have. If they make the playoffs, great, if not, stick to the plan.

 

Maybe we can trade for Scooter and Kintzler to solve two of those problems? /sarcasm

 

I'd think the goal now would be to build from within and see what our key guys are really worth by giving them a long look like we did with Arcia.

 

I'd like to see them trade for 2.5 years of Gray if we can give up our prospects who aren't really prospects we are expecting great things like Ray, Lara, and Kodi but I doubt that is going to happen. They are going to want a Brinson and we can't afford to trade away a guy like that unless it means a trip and a run in the playoffs.

[brewmann04]

I think Dubon will be up at sometime and I Give Phillips at least a platoon with Keon. the rotation not really sure maybe give Woodruff some spot starts to see, as for the pen not sure who they bring up beside maybe Wang

[KeithStone53151]

how does anyone know what someone celing even before he hits the majors.

 

Scouts. Their entire job is to figure out what a players ceiling is. Obviously they can be wrong on guys and often are but for the most part you know what you're getting with any given player.

 

......and if he doesn't he's already proving filthy in the pen

 

Over the course of 14 innings. With 11 walks. Derrick Turnbow "proved filthy" once too.

 

Look I'm not saying the guy isn't good or can't reach his potential. Im not hoping they trade him but if we want to get a guy like Gray we're going to need to give something up. People need to be realistic with these scenarios. We'll take Gray from you and you can have Medeiros, Ray and Peralta. These aren't genuine proposals. Whether we care to admit it or not Oakland is going to get a nice haul for Gray. As another poster (I forget who) said if you don't want to give up what it takes to get Gray then just say so. But we cannot seriously claim we want Gray then refuse to give up Hader Ortiz Burnes and Woodruff.

 

You might want to search out some recent scouting reports before dubbing burnes a 4 or 5 ceiling. Enough said there

 

Every scouting I've read says his likely ceiling as that of mid to back end starter. If I'm missing something that says he can turn into a 1 or 2 I apologize. But I've been fooled by good minor league numbers before.

 

Woodruffs most likely result might be a 3 as you said. 6 years of that has more value than 2+ years of Gray.

 

Didn't Wily Peralta once have the upside of a 3? Would 6 years of him held more value then 2+ years of an established, quality major league pitcher who finished 3rd in the Cy Young balloting?

 

I appreciate your optimism and I certainly hope you're right but you seem to have this assumption that every prospect we have is going to reach their potential. That ignores are sorts of history. Brandon Woodruff and Corbin Burnes and Josh Hader could very well headline our rotation for the next 6 years and all reach or exceed their potential. I'm certainly rooting for that. Or every single one of them could flame out. Forgive my cynicism but I've seen good pitching prospects in the Brewers system before that I've been excited about. And other than Ben Sheets, Yovani Gallardo and maybe Jimmy Nelson every one of them has failed to live up to their expectations. That certainly doesn't mean the ones we have now will also fail but it does give me pause to just automatically assume their going to be quality pitchers and we shouldn't move them for established players.

 

We have an opportunity to obtain a quality MLB pitcher who has already had major league success, will probably instantly be the best pitcher on the roster and can help us for multiple years. Yes it's risky but so is relying on unproven prospects. We have the unique opportunity to make a trade that helps us now without sacrificing the future. We have a glut of outfielders and a number of quality pitching prospects (emphasis on prospects). We will have to give up two good prospects plus some but we will obtain a quality player in return.

 

And that completely ignores the upside woodruff has that Gray doesn't

 

Because Gray has already reached his upside. If Woodruff reaches his he'd probably be a similar pitcher in terms of quality. But if he doesn't then you lose out. That's the risk in relying on prospects.

 

And for what it's worth between Hader Burnes Woodruff and Ortiz I'm only willing to move one in a trade for Gray. The other headliner has to be an outfielder or other position player. I'm certainly not anti prospect and unwilling to hang on to them to see if they pan out.. I of course realize the value of them but I also realize the risk.

 

I completely understand Gray is going to come at cost. I'd rather trade outfield prospects than pitching. Any outfield prospect not named Brinson is on the table as the key piece. A package of Phillips, Peralta, Harrison/Gatewood is a plenty good package. If someone else tops it and overpays for Gray, so be it.

 

Listing the worst case scenario for each of our prospects as a reason to trade now while they have value is melvin/dombrowski style GM'ing. It's playing checkers while most other GM's are playing chess. At least Dombrowski got Sale for his top prospects, who's an elite pitcher and not merely a #2/3 at best when healthy. We aren't going to compete consistently unless guys like Hader/Woodruff/Burnes/Ortiz/etc develop and become core pieces of our rotation for 6+ years. There may be a time and place for trading higher end prospects, but it isn't at this stage of the rebuild or for Gray.

[paul253]

As I've mentioned before though this isn't an either/or. It's not either win now and gut the system or stick to the rebuild. We can likely acquire Gray without giving up more than two of our top prospects. And we get to keep Gray for at least two more seasons after this to help win in the future.

 

I don't think we should vastly overpay but I'd definitely be willing to part with, say, Hader Phillips Diplan and a fourth piece (Lopez/Ponce/Cordell). If thats not good enough then pass. But let's say we do that and it doesn't work out for us this year. What have we lost going into next year? Hader, who will likely either start out in the bullpen or the AAA rotation while he tries to figure out how to command his pitches, Phillips who will likely start out on the bench or in AAA, Cordell who will likely start out on the bench or in AAA and/or another pitching prospect who isn't in our top 10 and will be in AA likely. Meanwhile we have Brinson, who should be an upgrade over Broxton, taking over Center. We have Ortiz Burnes and Woodruff likely in AAA and continuing their development. We can sign some relievers to help solidify the bullpen and we have options for second base (Sogard/Villar/Dubon/FA). Everyone else is back. The payroll is still low. And we have our probable new #1 pitcher in Gray which means we don't have to rely on Chase Anderson repeating his so far amazing season.

 

To me it's a win-win. I just don't see how this in any way changes the plan or somehow hurts the future. Obviously it depends on what you give up but Gray is not going to bring back 4 top 100 prospects. Probably not even 3.

 

I'd think the goal now would be to build from within and see what our key guys are really worth by giving them a long look like we did with Arcia

 

That's fine but how are we going to give a long look to Cordell, Phillips and Brinson, all of whom are putting up numbers good enough in AAA to warrant a call up? Obviously the answer is we can't because we can't play 6 outfielders at once. As I mentioned before, every time I made a comment about drafting an acquiring all these outfielders I was told "well we can use them as trade bait" or "it'll work itself out". But now nobody seems to want to use them as trade bait. And meanwhile there is nowhere to put them all other than the bench or the minors. This is a problem that we are going to have to do something about. I don't see it working itself out.

[KeithStone53151]

As I've mentioned before though this isn't an either/or. It's not either win now and gut the system or stick to the rebuild. We can likely acquire Gray without giving up more than two of our top prospects. And we get to keep Gray for at least two more seasons after this to help win in the future.

 

I don't think we should vastly overpay but I'd definitely be willing to part with, say, Hader Phillips Diplan and a fourth piece (Lopez/Ponce/Cordell). If thats not good enough then pass. But let's say we do that and it doesn't work out for us this year. What have we lost going into next year? Hader, who will likely either start out in the bullpen or the AAA rotation while he tries to figure out how to command his pitches, Phillips who will likely start out on the bench or in AAA, Cordell who will likely start out on the bench or in AAA and/or another pitching prospect who isn't in our top 10 and will be in AA likely. Meanwhile we have Brinson, who should be an upgrade over Broxton, taking over Center. We have Ortiz Burnes and Woodruff likely in AAA and continuing their development. We can sign some relievers to help solidify the bullpen and we have options for second base (Sogard/Villar/Dubon/FA). Everyone else is back. The payroll is still low. And we have our probable new #1 pitcher in Gray which means we don't have to rely on Chase Anderson repeating his so far amazing season.

 

To me it's a win-win. I just don't see how this in any way changes the plan or somehow hurts the future. Obviously it depends on what you give up but Gray is not going to bring back 4 top 100 prospects. Probably not even 3.

 

I'd think the goal now would be to build from within and see what our key guys are really worth by giving them a long look like we did with Arcia

 

That's fine but how are we going to give a long look to Cordell, Phillips and Brinson, all of whom are putting up numbers good enough in AAA to warrant a call up? Obviously the answer is we can't because we can't play 6 outfielders at once. As I mentioned before, every time I made a comment about drafting an acquiring all these outfielders I was told "well we can use them as trade bait" or "it'll work itself out". But now nobody seems to want to use them as trade bait. And meanwhile there is nowhere to put them all other than the bench or the minors. This is a problem that we are going to have to do something about. I don't see it working itself out.

 

Phillips, Cordell, etc...I'm on board. I am not on board with losing any of those top pitchers. I suspect Hader would be given a shot to win a starting job next year along with Woodruff. We'd have Nelson, Anderson, Davies, Guerra returning...of which only those top 2 would likely be guaranteed spots. I think you are extremely down on Hader, while I'm a bit higher on him than most. Except you'd also be willing to swap out hader for woodruff or burnes. So it's moreso that you think Gray is much better than he is and are completely ignoring all the red flags that come along with him. Size/injury history/poor 2016/non-elite velocity/moving to a hitters park/etc. All those risks for the upside of paying a decent chunk of payroll for a #2/3 best case? Not worth our top pitchers, not even close. When Gray gets moved, I doubt any deal includes a pitcher as highly regarded as those 3 guys...whether it's the brewers or someone else.

[OnaBadger58]

Can Sonny Gray hit with RISP? Our starters ERA during this losing streak has been 3.32.

[FVBrewerFan]

This piece by Rosenthal is SPOT on...Maybe now some of you will start to "get it" and see why I and others are pushing this so hard...https://www.facebook.com/kenrosenthalsports/posts/1455526177846442

 

The Twins stepped up on Thursday, closing in on a trade for Braves left-hander Jaime Garcia, a potential free agent, when their preference was for a controllable starter.

 

Will the Brewers be the next rebuilding club to leave their comfort zone, knowing they are contending sooner than they expected, knowing that a trade for Athletics right-hander Sonny Gray would put them in even better position to win?

 

 

I don't think it's helpful to talk down to us, like we don't understand sometimes you have to "go for it" regardless of the long term plan. I think we all get that, some of us just don't agree it's worth going for it for this year.

 

If Gray or any other SP put us over the top, or even similar to the Cubs, Dodgers, and Astros- absolutely, pull the trigger. But the Brewers aren't as good as those teams in any aspect of the roster- starting pitching, bullpen, or hitting. Gray isn't going to change that, just make rotation marginally better.

[homer]

Sorry, I will never subscribe to the theory that acquiring a pitcher will help your team hit better.

[adambr2]

Sorry, I will never subscribe to the theory that acquiring a pitcher will help your team hit better.

 

Nor do I. We have scored 2-3 runs in every single game since the AS break, that simply isn't going to cut it. We could have traded for Gray at the break and it would have made no difference in this streak.

 

If we are really going to subscribe to the theory that the lineup magically starts hitting better under the inspiration of a big trade, we need to question our current effort.

[paul253]

Phillips, Cordell, etc...I'm on board. I am not on board with losing any of those top pitchers

 

Then again, just say you aren't willing to trade what it will take to get him. An offer with Cordell as the second best piece and none of our top 4 pitching prospects isn't going to get it done isn't going to get him

 

I think you are extremely down on Hader

 

I wouldn't say I'm down on him I'm just telling it how I see it. And that is as a future bullpen arm. We cannot use him as a starter if he can only go five innings due to high pitch counts. And when I see him pitch I see awful command. Unless it improves I think it'll eventually catch up to him when teams see him enough.

 

Size/injury history/poor 2016/non-elite velocity/moving to a hitters park/etc[/ quote]

 

Size and injury history are being overblown. He's been 5'10 his entire career. I'm not sure why that is all of a sudden going to hurt him. And his injury history is essentially one year, which happened to be the year he struggled. That's hardly limited to him. But I'm not sure why I'm supposed to focus on 2016 instead of 2017. As far as moving to a new park. It may affect him it may not. That's a risk I'm willing to take.

 

When Gray gets moved, I doubt any deal includes a pitcher as highly regarded as those 3 guys...whether it's the brewers or someone else

 

This is definitely a bet I'd be willing to take. You don't think Sonny Gray is going to fetch a top 50-75 prospect? Oakland would be fools to trade him for anything less. Heck Will Smith fetched a top 100 prospect last season.

 

I think some people just have too much faith in our prospects, or prospects in general. The vast vast majority of them flame out and many more never reach their potential. It really does boggle my mind how some are refusing to move even one single top 10 organizational prospect to get Sonny Gray. I may very well be overvaluing him but you then are most certainly undervaluing him. Sonny Gray is worth more than Phillips, Cordell and some junk.

[HighHeat19]

It's funny how far down this thread has fallen given the Brewer's current status. Where's all the Gray supports now???

 

How would you feel now if the Brewer's just gave up Brinson, Hader and a Burnes for this guy???

 

I am not a Gray fan. I am a David Stearns fan however, and looks to be for good reason.

[Brewcrewin07]

It's funny how far down this thread has fallen given the Brewer's current status. Where's all the Gray supports now???

 

How would you feel now if the Brewer's just gave up Brinson, Hader and a Burnes for this guy???

 

I am not a Gray fan. I am a David Stearns fan however, and looks to be for good reason.

 

 

I still want them to make several moves, Gray being one of them..I have just given up that they will..keep hearing rumors about them being in on so many different guys, but obviously Stearns is too passive/scared to pull the trigger on anything. Oh well, WHEN this rebuild plan fails in the next 3-4 years and he's looking for a new job, he'll have to own it, and always regret not trying to improve the ballclub when he had a chance.

[superfly]

You guys do realize that it would be OK and not a crime for us to trade for cheap Sonny Gray AND go out and (in theory) sign the Yu Darvish ace/good #2 in the offseason right? Getting Gray would put us one step ahead of other competition going into the offseason and not chasing the mid level guys like Garza for 15 mil per.

 

(IN THEORY)

 

Darvish

Gray

Nelson

Anderson (?)

Davies

 

Sure looks a heck of alot nicer to me than

 

Nelson

Anderson (?)

Guerra (?)

Davies

AAA

 

 

I know prospects are fun to dream about and all, but half or more of these guys won't live up to the hype. Hader and Brinson off limits, anyone else is fair game IMO.

[paul253]

How would you feel now if the Brewer's just gave up Brinson, Hader and a Burnes for this guy???

 

Who has EVER suggested giving up Brinson Hader and Burnes for Sonny Gray? Be real.

 

And I'm trying to understand the point you're trying to make. The thread isn't as active as before so therefore people don't want Gray anymore? I'd still trade Hader Phillips and another piece for him. He'd still be, in my opinion, the best overall starting pitcher on the team and he'd still help us the next two years. Nothing has changed in my mind.

 

And for what it's worth, perhaps the thread has died down because the talk of Gray to the Brewers has died down some. That's a better theory then all of a sudden people don't want him anymore.

[HighHeat19]

It's funny how far down this thread has fallen given the Brewer's current status. Where's all the Gray supports now???

 

How would you feel now if the Brewer's just gave up Brinson, Hader and a Burnes for this guy???

 

I am not a Gray fan. I am a David Stearns fan however, and looks to be for good reason.

 

 

I still want them to make several moves, Gray being one of them..I have just given up that they will..keep hearing rumors about them being in on so many different guys, but obviously Stearns is too passive/scared to pull the trigger on anything. Oh well, WHEN this rebuild plan fails in the next 3-4 years and he's looking for a new job, he'll have to own it, and always regret not trying to improve the ballclub when he had a chance.

 

Rumors on so many guys is that Stearns wants to know what the price is on EVERYONE. This gives him a overall feel of the value of the market and let's him decide where value can be found and what he should stay away from. Almost all off his acquisitions are based on value.

 

And the only way this rebuild fails is if they sell all their acquisitions for short term success with high risk.

[adambr2]

It's funny how far down this thread has fallen given the Brewer's current status. Where's all the Gray supports now???

 

How would you feel now if the Brewer's just gave up Brinson, Hader and a Burnes for this guy???

 

I am not a Gray fan. I am a David Stearns fan however, and looks to be for good reason.

 

 

I still want them to make several moves, Gray being one of them..I have just given up that they will..keep hearing rumors about them being in on so many different guys, but obviously Stearns is too passive/scared to pull the trigger on anything. Oh well, WHEN this rebuild plan fails in the next 3-4 years and he's looking for a new job, he'll have to own it, and always regret not trying to improve the ballclub when he had a chance.

 

This is hilarious. If we fired Stearns he would be unemployed for like 20 minutes.

 

Also kind of odd that you obviously think this team is good enough to contend now but yet apparently not good enough to contend for the next 3-4 years if they don't do something now. That just screams impatient.

[brewmann04]

Why will DS turn around and blow up what he has done in the last year.

[FVBrewerFan]

Stearns is afraid to make a deal? The same guy who's made like 9,000 transactions already in his short time here? Just wow. By the way I don't believe Grays bat would have been good enough to prevent losing all these games.

[Oldcity]

9.6% chance for the playoffs according to Fangraphs. Obviously still do everything you can to win, which should probably include Brinson and Woodruff soon, but being a big buyer at this point would be foolish.