Sonny Gray- Let's GO FOR IT! Here's a plan...

[DocLuna7]

That proposal is actually an underpay for what Gray will actually cost.

 

You guys are drinking too much prospect kool-aid.

 

This proposal only has the Crew parting with one Top 100 prospect for Gray. (Woodruff #43 or Ortiz #67)

 

Y'all not just nuts...YOU CRAZY!!!!

 

The point is that Gray is not a frontline starter and that the market is overrating him as such. No, it's not crazy to say that it's a bad idea to pay more than market price for an ace to attain a third starter. I don't overvalue prospects at all. I am however of the mindset that if you're going to be trading them you use prospects to acquire difference making quality and don't sell-low on them just to feel like we are doing something. If someone like a Stroman becomes available I am all in. In the meantime unless we get a sweet deal (we won't) count me out on overpaying for an oft-injured third starter like Gray.

[mlloyd10]

Would feel so much better if the A's wanted Clark instead of Phillips - I dont see Phillips being a starter, but a very reliable 4th OF that can play all 3 OF sports - Would rather start 2019 with Brinson/Ray/Santana in the OF

[OnaBadger58]

DS not doing anything sends a bad message to the players...almost as if to say "You guys are a fluke, I don't believe in you, so I'm not going to do anything to upgrade the roster". The players have done their jobs and have put themselves in a position no one believed they'd be in....now it's time for Stearns to do his...before it's too late(and frankly it might already be).

 

Let me see if I understand you correctly. Stearns going forward with the current group of 1st place players, that he assembled, and not trading any of them, indicates to them that he does not believe in them .

 

If he traded for someone externally, replacing one or more of the current players who have "done their jobs", and perhaps trading others currently within our organization, that would indicate to the players that he does believe in them .

 

Ok.

Exactly. How many of these players have been given new life coming to Milwaukee? Half of this current team may be still in AAA or seeing a lot less PT if it wasn't for Stearns bringing them to the Brewers. They have brought this team to first place for what seems like the entire season. Standing pat if anything would send a message of belief and reassurance.

[A Swing and A Drive]

Career stats

 

Marcus Stroman

480 IP

7.36 K/9

2.25 BB/9

3.49 FIP

3.71 ERA

 

Sonny Gray

692 IP

7.69 K/9

2.87 BB/9

3.59 FIP

3.46 ERA

 

In what universe is Marcus Stroman a frontline starter but Sonny Gray is NOT?

 

And Gray's numbers would be much better if not for his injury plagued 2016 season.

[MrTPlush]

I am growing quite fond of Phillips and his defensive ability in the OF. If the Brewers truly do not have to part with Brinson or Hader, I would start with a package of Ray and Harrison and see if they bite on a lesser SP prospect like Medeiros. Additionally, I would be willing to toss in Broxton if they need an MLB player now.

 

Ray, Harrison, Medeiros and Broxton for Gray seems enough for me. Platoon Brinson and Phillips in CF for the rest of the season and play one in LF when Braun needs a day off.

 

This would be my ideal scenario for the Brewers at the deadline.

 

Why not just say you don't want to give up what it will take to get Gray instead of saying you like Phillips so you would offer a bunch of lesser prospects? Ray/Harrison/Medeiros? Come on that's not even a competitive offer. Ray is a good prospect, but those secondary prospects do not have that much value.

[DocLuna7]

Because of exactly what you just said- the injuries. Not to mention that Stroman has been much better the last two seasons and is a year younger.

[3and2Fastball]

Looking at career stats for a pitcher is somewhat similar to evaluating pitchers based on Win-Loss record. Look at the last 2 seasons.

 

I understand that to get Gray or any other "big name" starting pitcher the trade will have to include, most likely, Brinson or Phillips, I understand that. But you don't go including a player like Dubon who played great in the Futures Game as well as a key portion of your future rotation in Woodruff if all you are getting back is Sonny Gray

[NievesNoNO]

 

With the Yankees big move, I think they will be out on Sonny Gray now. I also think the Astros will focus on bullpen help over rotation help, with McHugh coming off the DL for them.

 

I think the Brewers are still the frontrunners for Sonny. I'm starting to be hopeful that his price will not be as high I we feared it could be.

 

Rosenthal reporting that Brett Phillips would be included in a deal for Gray makes me hopeful that we can acquire him without Brinson now.

 

Brewers get:

RHP Sonny Gray

 

A's get:

OF Brett Phillips

RHP Brandon Woodruff or RHP Luis Ortiz

MI Mauricio Dubon or Isan Diaz

RHP Freddy Peralta or Marcos Diplan

 

If the Brewers can land Gray AND keep both Brinson and Hader, I'd be absolutely giddy.

 

 

I think this would be fair. Personally, I'd exclude the 4th piece. I think those top three are enough but I wouldn't be horrified to include one more piece. We can throw around other pitchers names that may or may not be available but Gray IS a guy that's known to be available. Whether or not people are high enough on him to be a true difference maker I guess is a matter of opinion, but I don't think it's a stretch to say he'd instantly become our 2nd best pitcher and when he's right can pitch like an ace for stretches of time. I'm ready to find out if he can close out 2017 like an ace in a Brewer uniform.

 

With all the chatter about the Brewers being the most interested, I actually do feel like they will strike up a deal. They're still going to have to outbid a few teams so I'd expect the cost to be significant but the Brewers might have more depth in their system to get them over the top without giving up their very high end guys.

[Oldcity]

Neither Stroman nor Gray are aces. They're above average pitchers with side/durability concerns.

[Warning Track Power]

I am growing quite fond of Phillips and his defensive ability in the OF. If the Brewers truly do not have to part with Brinson or Hader, I would start with a package of Ray and Harrison and see if they bite on a lesser SP prospect like Medeiros. Additionally, I would be willing to toss in Broxton if they need an MLB player now.

 

Ray, Harrison, Medeiros and Broxton for Gray seems enough for me. Platoon Brinson and Phillips in CF for the rest of the season and play one in LF when Braun needs a day off.

 

This would be my ideal scenario for the Brewers at the deadline.

 

Why not just say you don't want to give up what it will take to get Gray instead of saying you like Phillips so you would offer a bunch of lesser prospects? Ray/Harrison/Medeiros? Come on that's not even a competitive offer. Ray is a good prospect, but those secondary prospects do not have that much value.

See the words "ideal scenario."

 

You are speculating on what it will take to acquire Gray as well. Who would've thought Doolittle and Madson could be acquired for what they were or JD Martinez could've been acquired for what he was? If it takes more it takes more, but Ray and Harrison is a decent start. If they need a Ortiz or Woodruff so be it, but that is not the "ideal scenario" I was referencing in the original post.

[OnaBadger58]

I'm not against making this move or upgrading. I just think the theory that doing nothing is a message to the players that he doesn't believe in them is ridiculous. It indicates the opposite if anything.

 

Can't disagree more. You think the Cubs saw the acquisition of Quintana as management not believing in them? It reinforced that they believed in them. The 82 Brewers were a veteran talented team with 3 HOFers and in first place. When Sutton arrived, they knew management wanted it all, just like them. They were energized, even though Sutton really was just okay until the big money last game. Players would see a significant acquisition now as a signal that management believes in them.

 

This is more like 92. That Brewer team fought like heck to stay with the Blue Jays, but when the Jays went out and got David Cone while the Brewers did absolutely nothing, it was basically over.

That's just it. These teams you speak of, this years Cubs and the 82 Brewers, already had the foundation in place to add the talent to get the over the hump. They had known commodities. That foundation is not here yet for the Brewers.

[A Swing and A Drive]

Yes and to build this "foundation" the Brewers need to acquire, controllable front line starters.

 

If Hader doesn't have good enough control to be a starting pitcher, than we currently have none. (with apologies to Corbin Burnes)

[Jopal78]

How many years did the teams with Fielder, Hart, Braun, Weeks compete for the playoffs (meaning in first place or amongst the top 4-5 teams in the NL? 2007,2008 and 2011. Are not legit contending seasons precious and warrant going for it?

 

Quintana is a great pitcher with three more years of control and cost two top 100 prospects. If the Brewers could add Gray for one top 100 prospect and lesser prospects I'd do it. Nothing is more frustrating than watching a good team collapse down the stretch like the 2014 club

[adambr2]

I'm not against making this move or upgrading. I just think the theory that doing nothing is a message to the players that he doesn't believe in them is ridiculous. It indicates the opposite if anything.

 

Can't disagree more. You think the Cubs saw the acquisition of Quintana as management not believing in them? It reinforced that they believed in them. The 82 Brewers were a veteran talented team with 3 HOFers and in first place. When Sutton arrived, they knew management wanted it all, just like them. They were energized, even though Sutton really was just okay until the big money last game. Players would see a significant acquisition now as a signal that management believes in them.

 

This is more like 92. That Brewer team fought like heck to stay with the Blue Jays, but when the Jays went out and got David Cone while the Brewers did absolutely nothing, it was basically over.

 

Not even close to the same thing . The 92 team was a veteran team on their last legs of contention. This team is basically the budding of a foundation, maturing early but still with their best days ahead.

 

If Stearns does nothing, why doesn't it say that "I believe in you guys as the foundation for the Milwaukee Brewers . My plan is a lot bigger than to feel that if we don't go for it now, you guys won't get us back here again . I don't know if this is our time yet, but I'd like to find out with you guys. If it's not, I know we'll have more chances with you guys.

 

There are many different ways to interpret doing nothing here, but to interpret it as Stearns not believing in these guys is ridiculous IMO .

[adambr2]

Yes and to build this "foundation" the Brewers need to acquire, controllable front line starters.

 

If Hader doesn't have good enough control to be a starting pitcher, than we currently have none. (with apologies to Corbin Burnes)

 

Sonny Gray isn't a front line starter currently any more than Chase Anderson or Jimmy Nelson currently is one or Corbin Burnes, Brandon Woodruff, Josh Hader or Luis Ortiz could or couldn't be one.

 

I'm not against getting Gray but if we expect to be acquiring a TOR starter we will be disappointed .

[KeithStone53151]

Yes and to build this "foundation" the Brewers need to acquire, controllable front line starters.

 

If Hader doesn't have good enough control to be a starting pitcher, than we currently have none. (with apologies to Corbin Burnes)

 

Sonny Gray isn't a front line starter currently any more than Chase Anderson or Jimmy Nelson currently is one or Corbin Burnes, Brandon Woodruff, Josh Hader or Luis Ortiz could or couldn't be one.

 

I'm not against getting Gray but if we expect to be acquiring a TOR starter we will be disappointed .

 

This...EXACTLY. Trading for Gray would be more like dealing for Marcum than for either Greinke or Sabathia from a caliber of pitcher standpoint. I'd also be hesitant to not consider woodruff in the "frontline starter" conversation. His body of work and scouting reports over the last year and a half indicate he might be a stud.

[mlloyd10]

If your thinking Marcum trade value, that will come over winter. Teams always pay/want more during season

 

BA had Lawrie #40 after the 2010 season - Value during the season would be equivalent to Ray/Ortiz or Brinson straight up

[Jenkins5]

Maybe I'm wrong, but weren't the A's really in on Gray in the draft if he fell to them? Thought I kept reading he was one of their top targets but Brewers snagged him right before them.

 

MLB scouts could care less about BA or pipelines rankings. That is a measure for fans alone. They could be in love with a prospect in the 20-25 range even more so than one of our higher guys. Look at Lind trade. People were upset we didn't even get a top 30 guy in deal! Now we are sitting with a stud like Peralta who is rocketing up system & rankings and Herrera who is really starting to come on! It should be important to note that BA, Pipeline, and most others weight draft position & signing bonus waaaay higher than front offices do. Looking at post trades so far, the market mostly seems down on prospects a bit. Cubs gave one elite & good prospect but most trades have had lower than expected returns in my opinion.

 

Last note.... our system is loaded. A guy in the 15-25 range could easily be a Top 5-10 in most systems. Burns, Harrison, Gatewood, Peralta, and list goes on & on.

[KeithStone53151]

If your thinking Marcum trade value, that will come over winter. Teams always pay/want more during season

 

BA had Lawrie #40 after the 2010 season - Value during the season would be equivalent to Ray/Ortiz or Brinson straight up

 

I'm talking specifically the caliber pitcher. You can't compare the trades really as like you said it's in season but also prospects are much more highly valued now than 5+ years ago. Also I'm pretty sure Melvin overpaid for Marcum.

[HighHeat19]

Today's matchup of Gray against the Rays should make things a little more clear. However, the Rays are a swing and miss team and could make Gray look like a stud today. If Gray implodes against the Rays, it might bring down the cost significantly.

[nate82]

Today's matchup of Gray against the Rays should make things a little more clear. However, the Rays are a swing and miss team and could make Gray look like a stud today. If Gray implodes against the Rays, it might bring down the cost significantly.

 

No Gray's value is already set one game is not going to move his value one way or the other.

[OnaBadger58]

Yes and to build this "foundation" the Brewers need to acquire, controllable front line starters.

 

If Hader doesn't have good enough control to be a starting pitcher, than we currently have none. (with apologies to Corbin Burnes)

IMO, 2 years is not enough control for the team the Brewers have now. By the time the Brewers know what they have and are ready to make a yearly push, Sonny Gray will be signing a contract with a new team. At this point, I'd rather see Hader, Burnes,Woodruff, Ortiz, Peralta, Bickford, Ponce, T.Williams, D. Willliams, Diplan and Yamamoto develop.

[HighHeat19]

Today's matchup of Gray against the Rays should make things a little more clear. However, the Rays are a swing and miss team and could make Gray look like a stud today. If Gray implodes against the Rays, it might bring down the cost significantly.

 

No Gray's value is already set one game is not going to move his value one way or the other.

 

Then why do teams even send scouts to these deadline games if that was the case???

[And That]

Today's matchup of Gray against the Rays should make things a little more clear. However, the Rays are a swing and miss team and could make Gray look like a stud today. If Gray implodes against the Rays, it might bring down the cost significantly.

 

No Gray's value is already set one game is not going to move his value one way or the other.

 

Then why do teams even send scouts to games if that was the case???

That's correct - the answer is in the middle somewhere. Gray does not have static value, it will fluctuate over even short periods of time. That said, even a "blow up" start where he seems to be healthy may not have a significant impact on his asking price. It may make a few teams more hesitant, but it may well also may make a few teams more emboldened to pounce due to thinking they can capitalize on that competing party hesitance.

[KeithStone53151]

No Gray's value is already set one game is not going to move his value one way or the other.

 

Then why do teams even send scouts to games if that was the case???

That's correct - the answer is in the middle somewhere. Gray does not have static value, it will fluctuate over even short periods of time. That said, even a "blow up" start where he seems to be healthy may not have a significant impact on his asking price. It may make a few teams more hesitant, but it may well also may make a few teams more emboldened to pounce due to thinking they can capitalize on that competing party hesitance.

 

I tend to agree. They likely send scouts to get a fresh look at a guy to compare to their current scouting reports before making a trade. If Gray goes out tomorrow and fires 3 mph lower than his scouting report indicates, or his breaking pitch isn't sharp, or he's missing his spots, or maybe he just doesn't appear healthy...that would all certainly be good to know and consider before making any decision on the guy.