Ed Sedar at 3B

[CheezWizHed]

From July 5th IGT:

Ed Sedar is an idiot, and Bill Schroeder can't say enough "good job by Ed Sedar." BA: "Gotta tip your hat to Ed Sedar" Please...

 

That was nothing but pure luck, and I stand by my original comment:

 

Ed Sedar is an idiot

 

I'm not picking on turborickey, because this is a very common comment when Sedar does something good or bad, so I thought it would make a good (lively) discussion point.

 

Watching this game, I saw the play that evoked this comment: Braun was at second and got a late break on a single through the left side of the infield (waiting for it to go through). Surprisingly, Sedar sent Braun home even though the LF was in shallow left picking up the ball (Braun was surprised too). I thought Braun was toast, but the LF was off the mark and Braun scored easily.

 

So I've been thinking about this lately. Of course, we all hate outs made at home, but if Sedar only sends people when there is a 100% chance of scoring, he is preventing runs from scoring. Stopping someone at third base means that someone else needs a hit, walk, bunt, PB, WP, or other "success" to score.

 

So, the success rater of Sedar sending players should be balanced with their chances of scoring from third if they are stopped. So I wonder if anyone keeps those metrics? I would imagine internally, the Brewers are doing that, but I've not heard anyone posting them publicly.

 

I found this article, which shows Sedar as one of the most aggressive 3B coaches in 2014, but still doesn't compare the rate of scoring to the chances of scoring from third if he stops them.

 

I'm not saying Sedar is good or bad as a 3B coach, but curious about the statistics behind his play.

[liveforoctober]

Is there a way to see how many times the Brewers have made an out at home after a hit?

[A Swing and A Drive]

I don't mind Ed Sedar's agressiveness per se, but I can't stand when he sends guys in the wrong situations.

 

I think he's a pretty terrible 3B coach in general because of this.

 

Both the 3B coach and ALL Players (I'm looking at you Jonathan) should know the game situation (how many outs, etc) at all times. That seldom seems to be the case by my observations.

 

If there are two outs, you send a runner unless he has almost no chance of scoring.

 

Don't make the 1st or 3rd out at Third Base. (Jonathan...please listen)

 

NEVER make the first out at home. (Jonny Villar...would you PLEASE pay attention during baserunning 101)

 

Most little leaguers grasp this but somehow not all our players or coaches can.

 

 

Boggles the mind.

[liveforoctober]

Generally speaking I agree with you but “know the situation” has the extra component of who is throwing from the outfield. In yesterday’s example, Seth Smith is in left field and the message from Counsell may very well have been “Make Seth Smith throw us out”. If Braun rounding 3rd there is a 50/50 play at home as a base … if having Seth Smith in LF makes it a 70/30 play in our favor is it ever wrong to send him? If Villar is on 1st with nobody out and there is a single to left center that Smith picks up and Villar calculates it is 70/30 to get to 3rd with Seth Smith throwing .. is it ever wrong to go given the prior context?

 

Offensive vs. defensive mindset. I’m not saying one is better than the other. Just adding to the discussion.

[CheezWizHed]

Further complicating "knowing the situation" is who is up next. Towards the bottom of the order you will want to be more aggressive than at the top of the order.

 

For just raw statistics, there is this study on expected runs (and wins) given different situations.

 

Summarizing the different chances of scoring when having a man on third you get:

0 Outs: 83-88% chance of scoring

1 Out : 65-68% chance of scoring

2 Outs: 28-32% chance of scoring

 

So that probably is the standard by which to judge your 3B coach sending players. He should be slightly better than those numbers. If you much higher than that, you are leaving runs on the basepaths. Too much lower and you are running into too many outs.

[A Swing and A Drive]

I agree with this assessment and believe it's the base coaches job more than the players to know the defensive abilities of the opposing teams players for the game and factor that into sending a player or not.

 

With that said, you still follow the "golden rules of baserunning" as noted above.

 

...even if the noodle-armed child of Chuck Knoblauch has the ball at the time.

[CheezWizHed]

NEVER make the first out at home. (Jonny Villar...would you PLEASE pay attention during baserunning 101)

 

Statistically speaking never being thrown out at home leaves runs on the bases, since only 88% (or less) of those left on third base will score. So I wouldn't say NEVER, but it takes a great defensively play to get the guy at home, I'm not going to grouse about it.

[bork]

Counsell said Sogard was rounding third base in the Cincinnati series on the last road trip and slammed on the brakes when coach Ed Sedar gave him a stop sign.

 

http://www.jsonline.com/story/sports/mlb/brewers/2017/07/06/notes-brewers-sign-high-school-outfielder-tristen-lutz/450964001/

 

So Sogard was hurt because he was surprised by a stop sign?

[owbc]

I don't buy it. I think Sedar is at least an average 3B coach. The 3B coach is one of those roles that people love to hate because the mistakes are highly visible. Usually the "evidence" is circumstantial and based on the eye test.

 

The only evidence I can find against Sedar is that the Brewers are bottom-10 in MLB in outs at home plate (12), but the league average is 9 so it's not like this is an epidemic.

 

Plus the Brewers are in general a very good baserunning team, making the 4th least outs on the bases overall (not including CS). And they are in the top-10 in stealing percentage.

 

Not to say this team hasn't had some very bad baserunning years (2013 and 2016). But it's not the case in 2017.

[liveforoctober]

How many of those outs at home have been contact plays with a man on 3rd? I feel like we have had more than a couple lately...

[MrTPlush]

The thing I like about Ed Sedar is he sends guys assuming the throw won't be perfect. Most of the time it isn't perfect and Ed Sedar makes a good sense. However sometime it is like he assumes a terrible throw and out guys are out by miles. He just makes way to many poor sends to make up for his good aggressive sends he makes. We call him the human windmill for a reason.

[BuckyBrewer61]

How many of those outs at home have been contact plays with a man on 3rd? I feel like we have had more than a couple lately...

 

I'm very curious about this. I'm sure reality is somewhere in between, but I can't remember once this season thinking that a run scored because we had the contact play on. I can think of many instances where a runner was thrown out by 3 steps because the contact play was on.

[Greenleaf1]

At least one of our outs at home was Santana being lazy.

 

If Sedar is bad, I'd have to be convinced based on his career performance, not one year. If we think bullpen pitchers have terminally small sample sizes per year, 3B coaches have it even worse.

 

That said, I'm not sold either way. I was yelling at Sedar for sending Braun, then the play wasn't even close. Have to give Sedar credit for knowing Seth Smith there.

[Fear The Chorizo]

In general the contact play shouldn't be put on if the defense brings the infield in - and it never should be on with 0 outs. I would much rather put on a safety squeeze than the contact play anyways, simply because I think the contact play is asking the baserunner to process too much at the point of contact that it leads to plenty of easy putouts (grounders right to 3b, 1b, pitcher - or hard hit grounders to middle infielders playing in) or getting doubled off 3B if the hitter swings and misses or lines out to the left side of the IF.

 

With the way the game has changed offensively, I'd put the contact play behind a position player sac-bunting a guy to 2nd in the order of things teams I root for should do (and I don't like giving away outs).

[3and2Fastball]

Pretty easy to second guess the 3B coach, but I agree with a few others that Sedar is at least average. The Brewers are having a tremendous season and the coaching staff is a part of that, obviously. I'm not about to put any of this coaching staff on blast. Seems to me they are doing a heckuva good job overall.

[A Swing and A Drive]

Just because the Brewers staff is doing a "heckuva good job overall" doesn't mean that Ed Sedar is even doing an at least average job by any means and should just get an overall pass because we are in first place.

 

The guy who volunteers to coach third in my summer softball league does a "heckuva" job IMO.

 

In all honesty, if Ed Sedar showed up and volunteered to bump that guy for an inning or two, I'd be hesitant to let him.

 

Just sayin'...

[nate82]

There was a study a few years back that showed 3B coaches don't send runners enough and are to conservative.

[owbc]

There was a study a few years back that showed 3B coaches don't send runners enough and are to conservative.

 

Thanks for this comment. It's clear from the numbers that Ed Sedar (and every other MLB coach) is actually way too conservative.

 

It's obvious if you think about it. The chance of scoring a runner on 3rd with 2 outs is about 30%. The odds of scoring a runner on 3rd with one out is about 70%. Obviously there is also some dependence on the game situation, but the windmill coach success rate is clearly way too high.

[wildcat83]

How many of those outs at home have been contact plays with a man on 3rd? I feel like we have had more than a couple lately...

 

Earlier this year I remember either Broxton or Arcia running through a stop sign and getting thrown out, as well as the Santana play. All things considered 10 outs at home plate at this point in the year is pretty tolerable. Realistically maybe 5 are on Sedar. I think the Ed Cedar hate is being overblown greatly. I don't like or dislike him, but have seen nothing to warrant the hate he gets. He's at least average in MLB.

[areacodes]

Just because the Brewers staff is doing a "heckuva good job overall" doesn't mean that Ed Sedar is even doing an at least average job by any means and should just get an overall pass because we are in first place.

 

The guy who volunteers to coach third in my summer softball league does a "heckuva" job IMO.

 

In all honesty, if Ed Sedar showed up and volunteered to bump that guy for an inning or two, I'd be hesitant to let him.

 

Just sayin'...

 

 

What evidence do you have that he isn't doing an "average job" out there?

 

I'm sure if you'd ask fans of most, if not all, teams they would claim their 3rd base coach is terrible.

[jerichoholicninja]

I can't imagine any way to empirically prove a 3B coach is good or bad. There are just way too many variables to consider.

[CheezWizHed]

There are some subjective things that would be difficult to measure

- Situational batting calls (bunts, 3-0 green lights, etc..)

- Contact plays when on 3rd base

- General coaching / Interpersonal type stuff.

 

But if you limit it to baserunning decisions (which is mainly the complaint that I hear about Sedar), I think you can quantify it. The biggest problem would be sample size, but I don't think the other variables are that hard to control.

- Define close plays at the plate - Perhaps this is anytime a player going to the plate has the ball thrown to the catcher

- Count only instances where the runner didn't originate at 3B (i.e. where the coach actually sent him home).

 

Then tally the percentage of success. Again, small sample sizes will be your enemy, but at some point it becomes large enough to negate the luck aspect.

 

As I posted above, compare that success rate to the chances of scoring from 3rd based on the situation (# of outs). Ideally, you are aggressive enough to approach the same success rate of scoring from 3rd, but not below it.

[OnTheBlack]

Pretty easy to second guess the 3B coach, but I agree with a few others that Sedar is at least average. The Brewers are having a tremendous season and the coaching staff is a part of that, obviously. I'm not about to put any of this coaching staff on blast. Seems to me they are doing a heckuva good job overall.

 

 

Agreed. Sedar's mistakes stand out and while I've never believed much in team chemistry, based on what you hear from him, the players on the team and basically anyone associated with the Brewers, Sedar is close with the players and does a great job of keeping things light...which over 162 games over 180 days is not a small thing. So given how hard it is to really fairly evaluate a 3rd base coach since bad plays stand out for so long--and he had Villar..that in and of itself is gonna make the coaches look bad regarding base running at times--I'll put as much stock in that. It's just too tough to quantify.

[Jenkins5]

Name one good 3rd base coach fans think does great job.... you probably can't. This is because all fans from all teams focus on bad decisions & hindsight. Over look all good holds, sends, and choices they make.

 

I personally love Sedar. He also fits the aggressive nature of a team with great athletes & speed. 3rd base coach is tough. You have to adjust to players speed, arm strength & accuracy of defenders & so on. If a less talented thrower makes perfect throw they usually don't or a usually talented & fast baserunner rounds too much/ stumbles a bit & gets gunned out.... that's out of their control. You play the norms. I think he does nothing to hurt the team. Plus he may be the most lovable & most loyal Brewer around. Moreover, he is also a very good teacher. Part of reason he has survived all the changes over all the years. Hard not to have soft spot for Eddy

[Montezuma]

Loveable/Loyal.... I agree