Deal with Seattle

[clancyphile]

Mariners get:

1B Jesus Aguilar

 

Brewers get:

LHP James Pazos

 

Brewers DFA Oliver Drake, call up OF/1B Garrett Cooper

 

Thoughts? Good trade, bad trade, or is it ugly?

[wildcat2237]

Mariners get:

1B Jesus Aguilar

 

Brewers get:

LHP James Pazos

 

Brewers DFA Oliver Drake, call up OF/1B Garrett Cooper

 

Thoughts? Good trade, bad trade, or is it ugly?

 

I like the creativity here.

 

Moreover this is exactly the type of out of the blue creative deal I could see Stearn's swing.

 

However, my first issue here is that I don't have faith in Cooper. Check out Cooper's AAA home/road splits.

 

Second, on the Aguilar for Pazos deal, Pazos was at one time an untouchable Yankees prospect. He has put up some darn good minor league numbers. At the big league level he has had major problems throwing strikes and Girardi threw him to the curb. I probably would not trade Aguilar for Pazos as it appears Aguilar could hit at the MLB level. Pazos will likely be nothing better than a set up guy. .

[ZBTMP]

Would probably do this trade from the Brewers perspective and like the general concept of moving 1st base depth for pitching if available. However not sure why we are cutting Drake. Since the start of June he has a 3.18 ERA and a 12/0 K/BB ratio.

[ZBTMP]

 

However, my first issue here is that I don't have faith in Cooper. Check out Cooper's AAA home/road splits.

 

Second, on the Aguilar for Pazos deal, Pazos was at one time an untouchable Yankees prospect. He has put up some darn good minor league numbers. At the big league level he has had major problems throwing strikes and Girardi threw him to the curb. I probably would not trade Aguilar for Pazos as it appears Aguilar could hit at the MLB level. Pazos will likely be nothing better than a set up guy. .

 

In general, the Sky Sox have been a better team at home than on the road. Some of Cooper's split difference is just noise. Certainly park factors need to be accounted for, but you cant completely dismiss Cooper's season. His road splits are still better than Aguilar's season last year FWIW.

 

Not to be a debbie downer, but Aguilar's sample size is about the same a Jason Rogers when we dealt him. Not sure he has proven much more other than he can be a useful bench bat.

[clancyphile]

Would probably do this trade from the Brewers perspective and like the general concept of moving 1st base depth for pitching if available. However not sure why we are cutting Drake. Since the start of June he has a 3.18 ERA and a 12/0 K/BB ratio.

 

It's a bit of a numbers game. Drake and Torres (who was the other option I considered for the DFA move) are probably the most expendable of the bullpen assets, and Knebel, Pazos, and Hader become a "Nasty Boys" bullpen that shuts down any offense after the 6th inning.

[Lathund]

Looking at wRC+, which adjusts for park effects and scales to the league run creating environment, has Cooper at 158 wRC+. In other words, he creates 58% more runs than the league average player. To put that into an MLB context, that'd tie Paul Goldschmidt for 4th among qualifiers, behind only Judge, Harper and Votto.

 

I'm also unsure at exactly how good Cooper is, and how it'll translate to the majors, but he's not just a product of the elevation in Colorado Springs.

[Devinep]

If they got decent value for Aguilar I'm sure Cooper could handle the PH/backup 1B role. Seattle might be a good match since Valencias nothing special at 1B and they have lefty batters at 3B and the OF corners

[JosephC]

Interesting suggestion and I pretty much see it as a fair deal. Neither player has much of a track record but both have been good this year. I think the Brewers are covered without Aguilar. If something happens to Thames at first they could either put Perez there now that Braun is back or move Shaw to first, put Villar at third and Sogard at second. Hate to lose a bench bat like Aguilar but you have to give something up to get something. The biggest question would be if the Mariners think they could afford to part with one of their relievers who is actually doing a good job. Mariners bullpen has been a mess. Think the Brewer's bullpen has been a mess? Milwaukee has used 17 relief pitchers this year, the Mariners are up to 25 already. But if they see themselves out of it (currently 41-44), there is a really good chance they swing the deal because they might end up with a 5 year starter at first base...almost the same motivation as Stearns giving up a reliever to land Shaw (and more).

 

I checked Pazos' history in the Baseball America Prospect Handbooks and this player was never a major prospect. 13th round pick in 2012. Was listed at #29 on the Yankee's top 30 list in 2016 and #28 on the Mariner's top 30 list in 2017. The Mariners acquired him from the Yankees in exchange for minor league pitcher Zack Littell. Littell is currently listed at #20 on the Yankees prospect list at mlb.com and is having a big year so likely ranks higher than that now. The book on Pazos was pretty simple, big fastball and slider but has command issues.

[Humans Need Water]

Cooper's road numbers are 288/340/815 (8 doubles, 6HR vs 15/9 at home). I think Cooper can be an equal or better overall hitter than Aguilar just clearly doesn't have his power and that comes in handy. If the Brewers think Cooper can step up and replace Aguilar I can see Stearns trading Aguilar by the deadline. If Cooper struggles though that could hurt the team as Aguilar has stepped up big spelling Thames over the past couple months.

 

I could easily see something like this happening or trading 1-2 prospects. But I think a lefty reliever should be added.

[bill hAll Star]

I don't think it can be ignored that a lot of Cooper's road games are also played in hitters' paradises.

[Greenleaf1]

Just because Cooper is playing in great places for hitters doesn't mean he isn't doing well enough to merit a shot in the big leagues.

 

People probably thought Sogard's CS numbers were BS too, then he came up and has done very well.

 

You can expect a good boost in numbers at CS vs. other less hitter friendly locations, but Cooper's numbers are eye opening even given that advantage, and he has a track record of being a good hitter at every level. Do I expect 25 homers out of him in Milwaukee? Of course not, but I don't think you can just ignore his power surge this season either. I believe CS is not as big a boost for home runs as other PCL parks like Las Vegas anyways.

[bill hAll Star]

Yeah Cooper's low K-rate tells me that he should at least stand a chance in the majors. If something like that is available where Aguilar can be dealt to the AL for relief help, it's a thought to have.

 

CS probably isn't a big home run boost but a lot of the higher altitude stadiums are batting average boosters. That's actually the biggest aspect of Coors. The fences have to be moved back so there aren't 25 HR/game which leaves a lot more room for hits to drop in (plus the altitude affecting pitches dropping).

[liveforoctober]

If they got decent value for Aguilar I'm sure Cooper could handle the PH/backup 1B role. Seattle might be a good match since Valencias nothing special at 1B and they have lefty batters at 3B and the OF corners

 

And just to build on this, I’m high on Aguilar myself but the addition of Vogt makes him a bit more expendable as Vogt can certainly spot start at 1B if Cooper can’t cut it.

[MadThinker88]

Doubt Seattle bites on the deal. Rumblings of Carlos Santana going to Seattle this coming off season as a FA to play with a couple of his friends from the DR World Baseball Classic team (Robinson Cano & Nelson Cruz).