JA Happ

[homer]

Just throwing out his name for discussion.

 

Owed $13 million for 2018.

[NievesNoNO]

Happ has turned himself into a pretty reliable starter the last couple seasons. Worth asking about.

[KCBrewerfan34]

Absolutely hes been hurt but now he's back. I would be calling the Jays, take Estrada off their hands if they want to cut some salary.

[JohnBriggs12]

Happ would be a nice fit. Not a big financial commitment but get one more year. Won't take gutting the system. Toronto's playoff hopes hanging by a string so very likely to be sellers. I can see Stearns pulling the trigger for Happ.

[JosephC]

I'm getting the feeling that Stearns will go out and get a starter but will get a veteran in the final year of his deal that is currently struggling and hope that he turns it around with a change of scenery. At this point I think he will just be too hesitant to give up prospects that hold real value, so he'll just troll the bottom of the market and maybe get lucky. The Blue Jays have two of those guys in Marco Estrada and Francisco Liriano. It's easy to look at Liriano's 5.66 ERA and 1.61 WHIP and conclude that he is probably worse than anything the Brewers have right now. But last year at around this same time Liriano had a 5.46 ERA and 1.62 WHIP for the Pirates, and then was traded to the Blue Jays and he ended up posting a 2.92 ERA and 1.18 WHIP after the trade. A guy like that has been around the block and has appeared in the post-season in four different seasons.

 

I like Happ too but think the price-tag on him might be pretty high. From 2014-2017 he has a 3.64 ERA, 1.25 WHIP and 3.86 FIP. Durability has been a big, big issue with him but the trading team would only be taking him on for 1.5 seasons. He's also a lefty and currently pitching well in the AL East which are two more factors that will probably over-inflate his value. Other thing is that Toronto probably won't be motivated to move him since they already have Estrada and Liriano heading into free agency and probably won't bring either of them back. Hard for an organization to lose that many starting pitchers at once. But we'll see, they should feel pretty good about Stroman and Sanchez at the top and they just need to fill in spots after those two players. Still hard losing 3 starters at the trade deadline/following off-season.

[Lathund]

I'm getting the feeling that Stearns will go out and get a starter but will get a veteran in the final year of his deal that is currently struggling and hope that he turns it around with a change of scenery. At this point I think he will just be too hesitant to give up prospects that hold real value, so he'll just troll the bottom of the market and maybe get lucky.

 

I hope he does exactly that.

[JohnBriggs12]

I'm getting the feeling that Stearns will go out and get a starter but will get a veteran in the final year of his deal that is currently struggling and hope that he turns it around with a change of scenery. At this point I think he will just be too hesitant to give up prospects that hold real value, so he'll just troll the bottom of the market and maybe get lucky.

 

I hope he does exactly that.

 

I don't see it. They have strength in numbers at some positions in their system and a guy like Happ could be flipped next year if they fall out of contention. I think he'll pursue any avenue short of the multi-prospect deal that landed Sabathia for just 3 months.. Heck Anderson is a direct result of the Grienke deal.

[brewcrewdue80]

This is the guy I'm targeting if I were to seek a veteran arm who is streaky good. I get with the poster above that Toronto is losing some arms, but Happ has 13mil that for Toronto could open to a FA signing. I'd think it'd cost just 2 prospects for him and they don't have to come from the top but around 5-12 would be strong enough or one top ten and 2 within top 30. They could use some OF help and Ryan Cordell would be a fun target by the Blue Jays, as he'd get at bats vs. Boston. Maybe you could see how much they'd like Villar as their SS/2b situation is filled with oft injured guys. Catcher they certainly could use a backup. I think Happ would come with a decent pricetag, but not one that hurts the top of the rankings.

[BeerFan]

If were looking at Toronto arms why not go big and go for Stroman? Would be expensive, but hes 26 and could be an achor of our rotation for the next several years.

 

Sent from my RS988 using Tapatalk

[MilwaukeesBest]

I haven't been enamored by any of the "TOR" available starters available this summer so far but if Stroman becomes available he's a guy I would definitely think about putting a massive package together for. It'd be nice to know if he'd be willing to sign an extension here too before a deal. One can dream, right?

[MilwaukeeBeers]

Count me in for a Marco Estrada reunion if the price is right.

[superfly]

I'm game for Liriano as long as the farm isn't given away. If Stroman wasn't a midget I would give some of the farm away for though.

[OnTheBlack]

I'm getting the feeling that Stearns will go out and get a starter but will get a veteran in the final year of his deal that is currently struggling and hope that he turns it around with a change of scenery. At this point I think he will just be too hesitant to give up prospects that hold real value, so he'll just troll the bottom of the market and maybe get lucky.

 

I hope he does exactly that.

 

I don't see it. They have strength in numbers at some positions in their system and a guy like Happ could be flipped next year if they fall out of contention. I think he'll pursue any avenue short of the multi-prospect deal that landed Sabathia for just 3 months.. Heck Anderson is a direct result of the Grienke deal.

 

I would be all for that...definitely moreso the Grinke type trade than the Sabathia, but which pitcher is that? I just don't see that guy on the market. That's sure not Sonny Gray or Quitana. That's MAYBE Archer from TB but not only are they unlikely to trade him, that would take a lot.

 

I am really starting to believe that the Cubs just might not get it going and the Brewers will keep playing well, but there is still such a huge gap between the Nats, Dodgers and the rest of the NL that it'd take a true ace(and probably a really good, durable reliever) for the Brewers to stand a chance...should they get to a playoff series.

[Greenleaf1]

Happ is probably the guy I'm advocating more the most at this point. I think his acquisition cost would be lower than a lot of the names out there, he has another season of control, and he has playoff experience in a rotation that could use some.

 

I'd be interested to hear what the Blue Jays' asking price is for him. Would Happ for Broxton straight up be doable? Or maybe Happ for Broxton and someone like Medeiros or Yamamoto? I don't think it would take a top 10 prospect to get Happ.

[JosephC]

Average (Fangraphs/Baseball Reference) of Happ's WAR in 2015 and 2016 was 2.9 and 3.85. So far this year it's 1.15 so project that out to 2.3 this year. Take that three year average and he sits right at a 3 WAR player. Assuming he performs over that level the next year and a half and it puts his value at about 40.32 million. He's scheduled to make 19.5 million over that timeframe so I'd put his surplus value at right around 21 million. That is right about in the range of two "top 10 organizational prospects" OR a "back end of the top 100 prospect" plus a "role player prospect." However, with the Blue Jays losing two other starters and not really needing to move Happ, I'd guess they'd probably need about 30 million dollars in surplus value to make the deal.

 

I'd guess something like:

 

Package 1 = Luis Ortiz and Trent Clark

 

Package 2 = Brett Phillips and Phil Bickford and Ryan Cordell

 

But if the Blue Jays were just willing to take what I think the true value of Happ is (about 21 million in surplus value), then I would expect the deal to be something like:

 

Package 1 = Luis Ortiz and Clint Coulter

 

Package 2 = Brett Phillips and Cody Ponce and Wendell Rijo

[homer]

Happ is probably the guy I'm advocating more the most at this point. I think his acquisition cost would be lower than a lot of the names out there, he has another season of control, and he has playoff experience in a rotation that could use some.

 

I'd be interested to hear what the Blue Jays' asking price is for him. Would Happ for Broxton straight up be doable? Or maybe Happ for Broxton and someone like Medeiros or Yamamoto? I don't think it would take a top 10 prospect to get Happ.

 

I have a hunch they won't give up Broxton. It would be minor league guys.

[MilwaukeeBeers]

Average (Fangraphs/Baseball Reference) of Happ's WAR in 2015 and 2016 was 2.9 and 3.85. So far this year it's 1.15 so project that out to 2.3 this year. Take that three year average and he sits right at a 3 WAR player. Assuming he performs over that level the next year and a half and it puts his value at about 40.32 million. He's scheduled to make 19.5 million over that timeframe so I'd put his surplus value at right around 21 million. That is right about in the range of two "top 10 organizational prospects" OR a "back end of the top 100 prospect" plus a "role player prospect." However, with the Blue Jays losing two other starters and not really needing to move Happ, I'd guess they'd probably need about 30 million dollars in surplus value to make the deal.

 

I'd guess something like:

 

Package 1 = Luis Ortiz and Trent Clark

 

Package 2 = Brett Phillips and Phil Bickford and Ryan Cordell

 

But if the Blue Jays were just willing to take what I think the true value of Happ is (about 21 million in surplus value), then I would expect the deal to be something like:

 

Package 1 = Luis Ortiz and Clint Coulter

 

Package 2 = Brett Phillips and Cody Ponce and Wendell Rijo

It might just be me, but those packages seem like a lot for a pitcher that's turning 35 in a few months. You almost have to assume regression when acquiring him.

[CheezWizHed]

Happ is probably the guy I'm advocating more the most at this point. I think his acquisition cost would be lower than a lot of the names out there, he has another season of control, and he has playoff experience in a rotation that could use some.

 

I'd be interested to hear what the Blue Jays' asking price is for him. Would Happ for Broxton straight up be doable? Or maybe Happ for Broxton and someone like Medeiros or Yamamoto? I don't think it would take a top 10 prospect to get Happ.

 

I have a hunch they won't give up Broxton. It would be minor league guys.

 

With Brinson in the wings, I tend to think it might be time to cash in on Broxton.

[brewcrewdue80]

Looking back at Game Logs and 2016 Happ's ERA never went above 3.70 and finished at 3.18 in 195IP. 12 of 32 GS went 7IP or more. Has postseason experience....why look elsewhere?

[MadThinker88]

Whenever a deal is made it takes at least 2 sides..

Try to remember that the current leadership in Toronto is Mark Shapiro & Ross Atkins, formerly in Cleveland until 2016..

You can look at their trade history in Cleveland to get a sense how they look at things.

 

Two words I would use to describe them: slow, methodical

[Greenleaf1]

Sounds like they're playing hard to get with Happ based on reports so far, which suggests to me the Brewers should move on and focus on other targets. I'm really not interested in Happ if the price gets too high, and maybe if we back off a bit they might soften.

[brewmann04]

He 34 sorry pass

[Madhawk23]

Does a package of Keon Broxton/Freddy Peralta get a deal done with Toronto, or does that not even come close? If not, I'd probably take a hard pass on Happ as I really don't think he's worth giving up any of our top prospects. I don't know if they have a need in the OF right now, but Broxton could give them a controllable piece that has already had some MLB success. Then, we could go with a Brinson/Phillips platoon in CF the rest of the way. Not sure what either one of them would give us offensively, but I'd have to think that it wouldn't be too big of a dropoff from what we are getting with Broxton now.

[brewcrewdue80]

Happ has far longer recent success than Gray does. Probably below a 3.5ERA since Aug 14th of 2015. Pitching for Pitts in '15 and Toronto since 2016...in the AL East you know. That's 54 Games started of production. Toronto would be better served to trade him during this stretch considering his age, and injury risk. If they wait for him to next season to trade he could end up hurt or age regression to a 4+ ERA and lost value. I would give up something good for him because production including playoffs could net the Brewers a similar return if doing so in the offseason should you not want him for 2018.