Trade partner: San Francisco Giants

[LouisEly]

The Giants could flood the starting pitching market, and they wouldn't be expensive to get.

 

Jeff Samardzjia's ERA doesn't do his peripherals justice - in 105 innings he's given up 107 hits, walked 13, and struck out 117; he's actually given up more HRs (16) than walks (13). His FIP is 3.38 and his xFIP is 2.94. He's owed significant, but not crippling, money - $19M/year over the next three years. The Brewers could easily take that on, and by taking it on, would not have to give up top prospects. He has age and financial risk, but that will be reflected in what the Brewers will have to give up to get him (which is not much). Being signed for three more years the Brewers could deal him this offseason or next and still continue the rebuilding.

 

Matt Moore has less age and salary risk, but has performance/injury risk - he's having a down year, driven by irrational splits vs. LHB (OPS-A of 1.143 vs LHB). He has two team option years remaining; there are performance escalators but nothing that guarantees either year, so the Brewers could cut bait with a low buyout if he continues to pitch poorly or is injured. It would be nice though to have a lefty starter to neutralize the Cubs left-handed bats. All the Giants had to give up was a B- prospect (Fox) & a C+ prospect (Santos), both a long ways from the majors, plus a young utility player (Duffy). The comp might be Diplan & Lara plus Cordell, with the Brewers likely only having to give up two of them.

 

Giants also have George Kontos to help shore up the bullpen, but many around here will trash that idea because he only throws 90. (Has an outstanding high-80's cutter.) He's been a solid reliever for four years, and isn't a FA until 2020.

[JohnBriggs12]

Samardzjia's expensive but the Brewers are 2-3 years away from seeing a lot of big arbitration raises and he is a workhorse to be sure. Point about not having to give up good prospects is valid but not sure the Giants won't see this year as an aberration and not sell off.

[brewcrewdue80]

In what world does one think Matt Moore will be a better pitcher than what he is since TJ? At best maybe he becomes a #3 SP or at worst, you buy out his option year after the season because he's as bad as Wily Peralta.

 

On the Shark, 20mil per basically the next 3 years. That's pretty steep for what will be age 33,34, and 35 seasons. It's hard to understand his numbers how he's so hit or miss. 4 games this year of 6ERs to 8ERs You toss those 4 games he still has an ERA of about 3.2. Obviously more respectable but surprising it isn't less. With his payroll, what would SF even ask in return? This isn't like other years when he was making under 10mil pre trade. Just see this as a half and half salary dump with one of the better SPs to trade for.

 

Maybe we give a straight swap for Braun and call it a day? Though I see us losing in that deal, but OF is certainly something we can throw bodies at with Braun gone.

[JohnBriggs12]

Braun would not approve a deal that sends him from a first place team to a last place team now that he has full no-trade rights. Interesting idea though that would make some sense. Lackey got $16 million per year from Cubs for his age 37 and 38 seasons. If Brewers did get him, and didn't contend in 2018, they still should be able to dump much of his salary if he pitched well enough for teams to be interested next July.

[adambr2]

Moore has been pretty terrible. Don't see how our internal options aren't at least as good.

 

Samardzija seems like looking to spend money just because we have money to spend. He's the classic expensive middle of the rotation inning eater market that we've been dabbling in now for 10+ years, we should be looking to get out of that market, not invest more in it.

 

We are pretty set with Nelson and Anderson right now, when Anderson gets healthy. Davies should be fine at the back end. Woodruff is basically ready, and Hader, Ortiz, and Burnes are all rotation candidates in the next 1-2 years.

 

Sorry, I agree with a lot of your ideas but I don't get this one at all. It doesn't really make us better now and doesn't in the next few years either, especially when he struggles and we still feel obligated to find a rotation spot for him because he's burning a $20M a year hole in our pocket.

 

I know the temptation is there right now to lose patience and make moves outside the process since we're still in 1st in July, but I don't see how this would be a good investment. It has pricier version of Matt Garza situation in 1-2 years written all over it.

[JosephC]

If the Giants are smart they would sell high on Samardzija right now. His K/9 is a career high, his BB/9 is a career low and his HR/FB percent is a high 16.7 so there are indicators that he could be fairly dominant in the second half. They could probably get a really good return and be out from the rest of that contract. As JohnBriggs12 mentioned, there is talk that the Giants are seeing this season as somewhat of a fluke but I strongly disagree with that. They have the look of an old, overpaid team. Their payroll is at a record high and only Matt Cain's contract will be coming off the books. Any savings they get from him will be eaten up by a Bumgarner extension. They probably don't have much more money to spend in free agency and it doesn't appear that there is much help coming out of the minor league system. To me this looks like a total rebuild.

[reillymcshane]

Samardzija is a bit of a frustrating player. He seems like he's kind of guy who should put up better numbers - and does so every now and then - just to tease everyone.

 

That said, I'd be wary of taking on nearly $20M in salary over the next 3.5 years. Not that Samardzija wouldn't be really nice to have in the rotation at this time - but more to maintain financial flexibility. You commit $20M to one guy, and there's not a lot more we're going to be able to do.

 

Honestly, a 200 inning guy - even just a good, not great, one - would be wonderful for this team. I just don't know if he's worth it.

 

I guess it all comes down to what is the cost to make the deal happen.

[MrTPlush]

Jeff Samardzija has been terrible at Miller Park in a pretty large sample. No thanks. Seems like it would end pretty poorly.

[LouisEly]

I understand the concerns about taking on Samardzjia's salary, but the reality is that a "cheaper" pitcher will cost more in prospects to acquire (see: Quintana, Jose). The point is that they could acquire him without sacrificing the rebuild.

 

Starting pitching is expensive. (That's why some of us have been vocal about investing so many high draft picks in OFs.) There are only three ways to acquire it - give up talent, draft it, or take on age/injury/financial/performance risk.

[NievesNoNO]

I"m not sure he would necessarily come as cheap as you might think. He should certainly be cheaper than some of the other mentioned alternatives, based on salary and age. If SF was going to do a soft sell, what do people think they'd demand in return? I like Samardzjia better than both Gray or Quintana. That probably puts me in the minority but his consistency and performance this season have been great. He can get a bit HR happy but last time I checked there was just a record set for most HRs hit in a month....most everyone is giving up HRs. Count me in for a look see:

 

Trent Clark +Cordell, + Freddy Peralta?

[Mudville9]

I would love to see us put together a package of players DS isn't planning on keeping on the 40 man next year that the Giants might be able to use. The Reed's and Cravy's of the world to round out a package. I still think since the GM is not talking rebuild, they might be interested Braun, but I have no idea how to start constructing a deal. I would love to swap Braun and Samardzija and let some of the young outfielders play. DS won't just give away Braun though. Should be an interesting month!

[LouisEly]

In what world does one think Matt Moore will be a better pitcher than what he is since TJ? At best maybe he becomes a #3 SP or at worst, you buy out his option year after the season because he's as bad as Wily Peralta.

He doesn't have to be better than he has been since TJ. He just has to be better than Guerra/Davies/Peralta, which doesn't take much.

 

I think this year is a small sample aberration for Moore because for his career he has a .724 OPS-A vs. RHB and a .744 OPS-A vs. LHB. This year his OPS-A vs. LHB is 1.143 with a BABIP of .413 (career BABIP .297); BABIP is much more relevant for pitchers, and that is way out of line vs. expected. Versus RHB there has been slight regression (.784 OPS-A) but not that out of line with career norms.

 

The point is that the Brewers could acquire him without having to give up much and still stick to the rebuild plan.

[Boomer5]

Shark would be a batting practice pitcher at Miller Park.

[LouisEly]

Shark would be a batting practice pitcher at Miller Park.

Sure didn't look like batting practice on June 5th

[MrTPlush]

Shark would be a batting practice pitcher at Miller Park.

 

Agree 100%

 

50 IP at Miller Park in career:

 

-5.43 ERA

-1.377 WHIP

-8 HRs(32 season average)

[superfly]

Honestly if we're taking big $ on i'd much prefer going the Verlander route. Moving to the NL would probably boost his numbers and you know every time out you're getting 100-110 pitches and probably 7 innings. Worst case scenario Kate is hot.

[Boomer5]

Honestly if we're taking big $ on i'd much prefer going the Verlander route. Moving to the NL would probably boost his numbers and you know every time out you're getting 100-110 pitches and probably 7 innings. Worst case scenario Kate is hot.

 

Rumors say the Cubs are looking at JV. Let's run the price up on a trade.

 

The Brewers shouldn't be trading for him though I wouldn't mind seeing Kate.

[Humans Need Water]

He doesn't have to be better than he has been since TJ. He just has to be better than Guerra/Davies/Peralta, which doesn't take much.

When you're including Peralta in the rotation on July 3 you know your argument doesn't hold water. They need to part with him as soon as he's off the DL as Suter or Blazek could easily take his spot. Guerra has had back to back rough outings so we should negate everything prior and become reactionary as a strategy? Davies last 13 starts he has a 4.08 ERA (would be 3.46 over 12 starts if remove that 7 run outing a few games back) - 3 shutouts, 4 starts with 2ER, 2 starts with 3ER (should be 3 as last start shouldn't have given up 4ER, should have been 2-3 if not for defensive misplays that don't show as errors).

 

Garza will most likely be gone in 3-4wks and Woodruff is available to take his spot. Then you have Hader still next year followed by Burnes and Ortiz shortly thereafter. All these guys have higher ceilings than anyone currently in the rotation.

 

I get wanting to help stabilize but more people need to think about external vs internal (Woodruff). He's ready to go. He's young, cheap (financially and doesn't cost prospects), throws several pitches for strikes, pounds the zone leading with his mid-90s fastball. Based on his makeup, the moment doesn't ever seem too big for him.

[adambr2]

I understand the concerns about taking on Samardzjia's salary, but the reality is that a "cheaper" pitcher will cost more in prospects to acquire (see: Quintana, Jose). The point is that they could acquire him without sacrificing the rebuild.

 

Starting pitching is expensive. (That's why some of us have been vocal about investing so many high draft picks in OFs.) There are only three ways to acquire it - give up talent, draft it, or take on age/injury/financial/performance risk.

 

It isn't just salary that would make Quintana cost more in prospects. It's also because he's a better pitcher with way more upside.

 

You're right, starting pitching is expensive. In Samardzija's case, it's about $20M a year expensive, he isn't a substantial upgrade from anyone in our full healthy 5 man rotation, and in 1-2 years we will be bemoaning why we have to save a rotation spot for a mediocre aging starter because we're paying him $20M a year when we have guys like Burnes and Ortiz waiting in the wings .

 

We also have the 8th ranked rotation in the bigs . Why pay an expensive price for something you don't even need? If it's a substantial ace upgrade, that's a different conversation, but this doesn't even make us much better. You wouldn't give Garza a $20M a year extension right now, would you? Is there really a major difference between Samardzija and Garza?

[JohnBriggs12]

I understand the concerns about taking on Samardzjia's salary, but the reality is that a "cheaper" pitcher will cost more in prospects to acquire (see: Quintana, Jose). The point is that they could acquire him without sacrificing the rebuild.

 

Starting pitching is expensive. (That's why some of us have been vocal about investing so many high draft picks in OFs.) There are only three ways to acquire it - give up talent, draft it, or take on age/injury/financial/performance risk.

 

It isn't just salary that would make Quintana cost more in prospects. It's also because he's a better pitcher with way more upside.

 

You're right, starting pitching is expensive. In Samardzija's case, it's about $20M a year expensive, he isn't a substantial upgrade from anyone in our full healthy 5 man rotation, and in 1-2 years we will be bemoaning why we have to save a rotation spot for a mediocre aging starter because we're paying him $20M a year when we have guys like Burnes and Ortiz waiting in the wings .

 

We also have the 8th ranked rotation in the bigs . Why pay an expensive price for something you don't even need? If it's a substantial ace upgrade, that's a different conversation, but this doesn't even make us much better. You wouldn't give Garza a $20M a year extension right now, would you? Is there really a major difference between Samardzija and Garza?

 

There's cheaper options out there as rentals who are better than the bottom of the rotation. Jhoulys Chacin looked very good against Brewers earlier this year and his numbers very similar overall to the Shark. Might cost a Phillips but won't gut the system.

[JosephC]

Samardzija's average WAR values (from Baseball Reference and Fangraphs) from 2014-2016 are 2.9, 1.4, 2.7. Three year average was 2.33 WAR. In 2017 the average WAR between the two sites is 1.85. It's probably safe to continue to project him at another 1.85 the remainder of 2017. From there, I'd project him at 3.0 WAR in 2018 (average between the 2017 WAR and the 2014-2016 average WAR), 2.2 WAR in 2019 (just below the 2014-2016 split) and then 1.4 WAR in 2020 as he will be pitching in his age 35 season. That would put his value at 79.562 over the remainder of his contract. He is due to make 63 million dollars over that time-frame. So I would put his surplus value at roughly 16.5 million dollars. So if the trading team picks up the entire remainder of his contract, I think he's roughly worth one "back end of the top 100" prospect OR one good "top ten organizational prospect" and one good "role player" prospect.

 

If a deal would be made with Milwaukee, you could bet that since the Brewers are in a small market and the Giant's minor league system is towards the bottom of the rankings, that both sides would be pretty willing to have the Giants throw money into the deal and the Brewers throw prospects in the deal. I don't buy the idea that "hey, the Brewer's payroll is really low so who cares if they spend 18 million per season on a pitcher" concept. That's easy to say when it's somebody else's money. Taking on 18 million per season for pitcher in his 32-35 age seasons is a massive commitment and it's very likely the Brewers would look to build in some type of financial cushion to lessen the impact in case of injury.

 

It's also worth noting that Samardzija has a limited no-trade clause where he can accept trades to 8 clubs. Another hurdle to jump since the Brewers would likely be blocked. However, any further financial aspects needed to push a trade through would likely fall on San Francisco's shoulders.

 

I would guess a deal between the two sides would look something like:

 

Brewers get:

P-Jeff Samardzija

15 million dollars (5 million payment each year from 2018-2020)

 

Giants get:

P-Brandon Woodruff

OF-Ryan Cordell

OF-Monte Harrison

 

Again, I would be out on this deal because Woodruff is on my strict no-trade list. But if a deal were to happen I think it would look something like that.

 

The Giant I'm most interested in is Hunter Strickland. His walk rate is terrible this year (5.52 BB/9) but he's still be getting the job done (2.15 ERA) and was doing a pretty good and consistent job heading into this season. The walk rate could push the price-tag down and he's a guy I'd like to have. Even if he struggles with walks he'd still be an upgrade to this bullpen, and I think it's a pretty good chance that the walk rate drops back down in future seasons.

[adambr2]

Samardzija's average WAR values (from Baseball Reference and Fangraphs) from 2014-2016 are 2.9, 1.4, 2.7. Three year average was 2.33 WAR. In 2017 the average WAR between the two sites is 1.85. It's probably safe to continue to project him at another 1.85 the remainder of 2017. From there, I'd project him at 3.0 WAR in 2018 (average between the 2017 WAR and the 2014-2016 average WAR), 2.2 WAR in 2019 (just below the 2014-2016 split) and then 1.4 WAR in 2020 as he will be pitching in his age 35 season. That would put his value at 79.562 over the remainder of his contract. He is due to make 63 million dollars over that time-frame. So I would put his surplus value at roughly 16.5 million dollars. So if the trading team picks up the entire remainder of his contract, I think he's roughly worth one "back end of the top 100" prospect OR one good "top ten organizational prospect" and one good "role player" prospect.

 

If a deal would be made with Milwaukee, you could bet that since the Brewers are in a small market and the Giant's minor league system is towards the bottom of the rankings, that both sides would be pretty willing to have the Giants throw money into the deal and the Brewers throw prospects in the deal. I don't buy the idea that "hey, the Brewer's payroll is really low so who cares if they spend 18 million per season on a pitcher" concept. That's easy to say when it's somebody else's money. Taking on 18 million per season for pitcher in his 32-35 age seasons is a massive commitment and it's very likely the Brewers would look to build in some type of financial cushion to lessen the impact in case of injury.

 

It's also worth noting that Samardzija has a limited no-trade clause where he can accept trades to 8 clubs. Another hurdle to jump since the Brewers would likely be blocked. However, any further financial aspects needed to push a trade through would likely fall on San Francisco's shoulders.

 

I would guess a deal between the two sides would look something like:

 

Brewers get:

P-Jeff Samardzija

15 million dollars (5 million payment each year from 2018-2020)

 

Giants get:

P-Brandon Woodruff

OF-Ryan Cordell

OF-Monte Harrison

 

Again, I would be out on this deal because Woodruff is on my strict no-trade list. But if a deal were to happen I think it would look something like that.

 

The Giant I'm most interested in is Hunter Strickland. His walk rate is terrible this year (5.52 BB/9) but he's still be getting the job done (2.15 ERA) and was doing a pretty good and consistent job heading into this season. The walk rate could push the price-tag down and he's a guy I'd like to have. Even if he struggles with walks he'd still be an upgrade to this bullpen, and I think it's a pretty good chance that the walk rate drops back down in future seasons.

 

That would be a horrible, nightmarish trade.

[JosephC]

 

You're right, starting pitching is expensive. In Samardzija's case, it's about $20M a year expensive, he isn't a substantial upgrade from anyone in our full healthy 5 man rotation, and in 1-2 years we will be bemoaning why we have to save a rotation spot for a mediocre aging starter because we're paying him $20M a year when we have guys like Burnes and Ortiz waiting in the wings .

 

We also have the 8th ranked rotation in the bigs . Why pay an expensive price for something you don't even need? If it's a substantial ace upgrade, that's a different conversation, but this doesn't even make us much better. You wouldn't give Garza a $20M a year extension right now, would you? Is there really a major difference between Samardzija and Garza?

 

I might not be a fan of trading for Samardzija, but I would not deny that he would be a pretty big upgrade to the starting rotation.

 

Take the average WAR between Baseball Reference and Fangraphs for 2017, and then multiply it by two to cover the entire season and this is how the 6 pitchers stack up:

 

-Chase Anderson = 4.7 (and likely out 6 weeks, so the number would likely be in the 3.5 - 3.6 range if he continues at the current pace when he returns)

-Jimmy Nelson = 4.4

-Jeff Samardzija = 3.7

-Matt Garza = 1.6

-Zach Davies = 1.2

-Junior Guerra = -0.4

 

Taking the average WAR per season from 2014 to 2016 (only 2015-2016 for Davies and Guerra), and here is how the 6 pitchers stack up:

 

-Jeff Samardzija = 2.33

-Junior Guerra = 1.6

-Zach Davies = 1.55

-Chase Anderson = 0.95

-Jimmy Nelson = 0.88

-Matt Garza = 0.68

[brewcrewdue80]

Samardzija's average WAR values (from Baseball Reference and Fangraphs) from 2014-2016 are 2.9, 1.4, 2.7. Three year average was 2.33 WAR. In 2017 the average WAR between the two sites is 1.85. It's probably safe to continue to project him at another 1.85 the remainder of 2017. From there, I'd project him at 3.0 WAR in 2018 (average between the 2017 WAR and the 2014-2016 average WAR), 2.2 WAR in 2019 (just below the 2014-2016 split) and then 1.4 WAR in 2020 as he will be pitching in his age 35 season. That would put his value at 79.562 over the remainder of his contract. He is due to make 63 million dollars over that time-frame. So I would put his surplus value at roughly 16.5 million dollars. So if the trading team picks up the entire remainder of his contract, I think he's roughly worth one "back end of the top 100" prospect OR one good "top ten organizational prospect" and one good "role player" prospect.

 

If a deal would be made with Milwaukee, you could bet that since the Brewers are in a small market and the Giant's minor league system is towards the bottom of the rankings, that both sides would be pretty willing to have the Giants throw money into the deal and the Brewers throw prospects in the deal. I don't buy the idea that "hey, the Brewer's payroll is really low so who cares if they spend 18 million per season on a pitcher" concept. That's easy to say when it's somebody else's money. Taking on 18 million per season for pitcher in his 32-35 age seasons is a massive commitment and it's very likely the Brewers would look to build in some type of financial cushion to lessen the impact in case of injury.

 

It's also worth noting that Samardzija has a limited no-trade clause where he can accept trades to 8 clubs. Another hurdle to jump since the Brewers would likely be blocked. However, any further financial aspects needed to push a trade through would likely fall on San Francisco's shoulders.

 

I would guess a deal between the two sides would look something like:

 

Brewers get:

P-Jeff Samardzija

15 million dollars (5 million payment each year from 2018-2020)

 

Giants get:

P-Brandon Woodruff

OF-Ryan Cordell

OF-Monte Harrison

 

Again, I would be out on this deal because Woodruff is on my strict no-trade list. But if a deal were to happen I think it would look something like that.

 

The Giant I'm most interested in is Hunter Strickland. His walk rate is terrible this year (5.52 BB/9) but he's still be getting the job done (2.15 ERA) and was doing a pretty good and consistent job heading into this season. The walk rate could push the price-tag down and he's a guy I'd like to have. Even if he struggles with walks he'd still be an upgrade to this bullpen, and I think it's a pretty good chance that the walk rate drops back down in future seasons.

 

While I think the first piece price is right, the inclusion of Monte Harrison who I think is going to be in the top 100 by season's end is too steep a price. And Cordell is a high floor get so much upside vs what upside and large pricetag that is Shark. Harrison and Gatewood need to be off limits. Demi O would be tradeable.

 

I think San Fran would want another Pitcher to be included. I just don't think with his salary he's worth more than 1 legit prospect and 2 B potential prospects

 

That's why I proposed Braun because the salary offsets and you can add one SP (Ortiz/Diplan/Peralta) and call it a day. If Braun vetoes then it is destiny not to make a trade

[LouisEly]

When you're including Peralta in the rotation on July 3 you know your argument doesn't hold water.

No, I wasn't including him in the rotation - he was in the rotation, and is part of how the Brewers got to where they are - first place. Let me be more specific - Moore just has to be better than what the Brewers have had the first half of the season, which includes Guerra, Davies, and Peralta.

 

Davies last 13 starts he has a 4.08 ERA (would be 3.46 over 12 starts if remove that 7 run outing a few games back)

I'm sorry, but when you say "if you didn't include that one start/if you only include part of the season" then your argument really, really doesn't hold water. They all count. Baseball is a game where performance ebbs and flows for various reasons. They aren't robots that will perform exactly the same every time they are used.

 

Hell, the 2nd half of last year Peralta had a 2.92 ERA and .680 OPS-A. But we can look at a 13-game stretch for Davies to say he's decent. OK...