2004 draft order

[colbyjack]

***Updated draft order to show that Roger Clemens was NOT offered arbitration & therefore the Yankees will not receive a sandwich nor the Astros 2nd round pick.

 

***I also updated the supplemental round draft order per BA, which is established by the raw draft order, not by the Elias rankings.

 

2004 raw draft order:

 

1. Padres (Yankees 2nd)

2. Tigers

3. Mets

4. Devil Rays

5. Brewers

6. Indians

7. Reds

8. Orioles (A's 2nd)

9. Rockies

10. Rangers

11. Pirates

12. Angels (White Sox 2nd, Blue Jays 3rd)

13. Expos

14. Royals

15. Diamondbacks

16. Blue Jays

17. Dodgers

18. White Sox

19. Cardinals

20. Twins

21. Phillies

22. Mariners (Twins 1st, Royals 2nd)

23. Astros (Yankees 1st)

24. Red Sox (A's 1st)

25. Cubs (Twins 1st)

26. A's

27. Marlins

28. Yankees (Dodgers 1st, White Sox 2nd)

29. Giants (Royals 1st)

30. Braves (Rangers 1st)

 

First round sandwich picks:

 

31. Royals (Raul Ibanez)

32. Blue Jays (Kelvim Escobar)

33. Dodgers (Paul Quantrill)

34. White Sox (Bartolo Colon)

35. Twins (Eddie Guardado)

36. A's (Keith Foulke)

37. Yankees (Andy Pettitte)

38. White Sox (Tom Gordon)

39. Twins (LaTroy Hawkins)

40. A's (Miguel Tejada)

41. Yankees (David Wells)

 

2nd round

 

Picks 42-71

46. Brewers 2nd round pick

 

Lost picks:

 

Angels:

2nd rounder to White Sox for type A FA Bartolo Colon (90.244)

3rd rounder to Blue Jays for type A FA Kelvim Escobar (66.374)

 

Mariners:

1st rounder to Twins for type A FA Eddie Guardado (86.478)

2nd rounder to Royals for type A FA Raul Ibanez (80.610)

 

Yankees:

1st rounder to Dodgers for type A FA Paul Quantrill (77.078)

2nd rounder to White Sox for type A FA Tom Gordon (74.791)

 

Cubs:

1st rounder to Twins for type A FA LaTroy Hawkins (86.239)

 

Braves:

1st rounder to Rangers for type B FA John Thomson (60.772)

 

Giants:

1st rounder to Royals for type B FA Michael Tucker

 

Astros:

1st rounder to Yankees for type A FA Andy Pettite (89.024)

2nd rounder to Yankees for type A FA Roger Clemens (86.077)

 

Red Sox:

1st rounder to A's for type A FA Keith Foulke (91.464)

 

Orioles:

2nd rounder to A's for type A FA Miguel Tejada (86.335)

 

Padres:

2nd rounder to Yankees for type A FA David Wells (77.947)

 

Explanation of compensation (courtesy of Jim Callis & BA):

If a team loses a Type A free agent (in the top 30 percent at his position), it gets a supplemental first-round choice as well as the signing team's first-round (if it's not in the top 15 selections) or second-round pick (if the first-rounder is in the top 15). If a team loses a Type B free agent (in the 31-50 percent grouping at his position), it gets the signing team's first- or second-round pick (based on the same criteria mentioned for Type A free agents). If a team loses a Type C free agent (in the 51-60 percent grouping at his position), it gets a supplemental second-rounder. If a team should forfeit multiple picks for signing multiple free agents, the team losing the highest-ranked of those free agents gets the highest compensation choice.

 

Finally, the Elias Sport Bureau ratings:

 

NL

www.argonauts.ca/Slam0310...nl-ap.html

 

AL

www.argonauts.ca/Slam0310...al-ap.html

 

I'm also going to throw in some of the players & who they will be advised by since that always plays a part of where a player falls. In other words, if they're advised by Boras or not.

 

Jeff Niemann-IMG

Wade Townsend-IMG

Chris Lambert-IMG

Jeremy Sowers-IMG

Jeff Larish-Scott Boras

Jered Weaver-Scott Boras

Stephen Drew-Scott Boras

Eric Beattie-Steve Hammond

Micah Owings-Lonnie Cooper (out of HS)

[cressj]

Colby - has compensation changes at all or are we still under the old system?

[colbyjack]

Nope, no word on compensation changing at all, so I would expect everything to stay the same.

[Al the Thinking Man]

Official word is "The union doesn't remember what it agreed to, so it will stay the same". While that's a paraphrase, it's what i read.

[colbyjack]

I think what it really shows you is that the players & the owners don't care. The players certainly don't care about the draftees, only that they don't restrict their rights to as much money as possible, and the owners don't seem to care too much if the structure changes from it's current format.

[Al the Thinking Man]

I feel the compensation picks are "too much" myself. Losing your first round pick to sign a free agent is a dealbuster to me, unless you're talking about an ARod. I'm sure a few teams feel the same way, at least the small market ones and the rebuilding ones. In effect, that means that in the case of a top free agent, you only have a few teams interested REGARDLESS of team need.

 

To me, this would have been an easy way for the union to at least increase interest in the "top-tier" FA's, who are the main guys the union care about anyway. Increased interest should lead to more money being offered the top guys. The union was too busy worrying about time zone changes and such, I guess.

[DuWayne Steurer]

The union doesn't remember what it agreed to, so it will stay the same".

 

They didn't write it down on a Post-It or anything?? Huh.

[colbyjack]

I agree that the compensatory process needs to be fixed. It doesn't come close to helping the little guys like it was intended to. If anything, teams like the Braves, A's & Yankees get all the extra picks since they're the ones that take on all the FA's-to-be at the trade deadline.

 

I have proposed a few changes to the system, in which the bad teams aren't penalized as bad for signing a FA while the big teams still are. I've also thought about eliminating lost picks for signed free agents & only having compensatory picks after each round. However, I would handle this process similar to the NFL, in which the league looks at who is acquired & who is lost. So if the Yankees lose 2 free agents & sign 2, they will not be awarded a compensatory pick. Plus, only the teams on the bottom half would get a compensatory pick after round 1, while the 2nd half teams would get one after round 2 (this of course would all be adjusted for the different types of FAs).

 

In this scenario, if teams don't lose picks for signing FAs, I also would get rid of the arby process that is tied into FAs. Too many small teams lose out on extra picks because they're fearful to offer these players arbitration (see Jose Hernandez). Again, a way would have to be figured out so the rich can't keep getting richer. Maybe make a compensatory round after the 2nd or 3rd for FA's that aren't offered arby, or maybe only allow these picks for the bottom 15 teams.

 

In other words, there's plenty of room for this process to improve. I did like the idea about awarding a compensatory pick for any unsigned first-round pick immediately after that slot the following year. It really gives the drafting team more leverage. For instance, if we had not signed Rickie Weeks with the 2nd overall pick, we would have been awarded the pick right after the 2nd slot (the 3rd pick overall) in next June's draft.

[EdgarDiazRocks]

Losing your first round pick to sign a free agent is a dealbuster to me, unless you're talking about an ARod

 

I would like to point out that the Mariners didn't get Texas' draft pick for signing ARod since it was a top 5, so the M's only got a supplemental round pick. The Rangers took Texieira. The M's even lost their own 1st round pick to the Yankees for Jeff Nelson. They took John Ford Griffin

 

The M's got Michael Garciaparra.

 

Screwed every which way.

[Al the Thinking Man]

Unless I missed something, if you don't sign a pick in the 1st round, you'll get a pick AFTER the 1st round, like 31st.

 

And you can't lose a pick in the top half of the 1st round, just the bottom half.

[bjkrautk]

Just to supplement the comments here, when a team signs a Class A FA, and they pick in the top half, two things happen (assuming the FA's old team offered arbitration).

 

1) The signing team forfeits their second round pick (or potentially lower, if they've signed more than 1 Class A FA) to the FA's former team.

2) The former team gets a supplemental first round pick (aka a "Sandwich pick").

[colbyjack]

Unless I missed something, if you don't sign a pick in the 1st round, you'll get a pick AFTER the 1st round, like 31st.

 

Any team that does not sign their first round pick is awarded a compensatory sandwich pick after all of the free agent compensatory sandwich picks. In last year's case, the Mariners were given the 37th pick overall, the last pick before the 2nd round, for not signing John Mayberry Jr. from the 2002 draft.

 

If more than one team does not sign their first-rounder, the team with the higher pick is awarded the higher selection. That won't be an issue next year since every team signed their 1st round pick. In fact, it was the first time in draft history that every pick from the first 2 rounds was signed. Not only were bonuses down, but teams seemed to be taking players they were sure they could sign earlier.

[11]

This according to Baseball America: KC picked up Seattle's 1st round pick (22nd overall) by signing Raul Ibanez.

[Never Outhustled]

That makes the Ibanez deal absolutly horrible for Seattle. Giving a 3/$12mill deal to a 30 year old OF coming off a sub 800 OPS season is bad enough in itself, but then throw away a 1st round pick?

[Al the Thinking Man]

In SEA's defense, I'm sure they were all but positive KC was going to offer Ibanez arby, so they figured they would have had to forfiet the pick regardless. I feel Kelvim Escobar is the only FA worthy of giving up your 1st round pick for, but I'm an odd duck.

 

This however, does not excuse SEA for thinking Raul "Less Than Mediocre" Ibanez is worth that kind of money. Odds are, they could have signed Matt Stairs for less than half that, and kept their pick, and got better production.

[colbyjack]

The Mariners signing of Ibanez was already discussed on this thread on the trade rumor forum:

 

pub123.ezboard.com/fbrewe...=578.topic

 

In SEA's defense, I'm sure they were all but positive KC was going to offer Ibanez arby, so they figured they would have had to forfiet the pick regardless.

 

They don't deserve the benefit of the doubt. I believe this was discussed on the aforementioned thread, but Jim Callis in one of his AskBA segments noted that the Royals weren't going to offer Ibanez, and just how odd the signing was for the Mariners, especially given that they lost their first-rounder this past year for signing Greg Colbrunn last offseason. Here's the link, and the comment from Mr. Callis, they certainly don't seem to care whether or not they have high picks in the draft:

 

www.baseballamerica.com/t...askba.html

 

I don't understand Seattle's rush to sign Ibanez to a three-year, $13 million contract. He's a solid outfielder but nothing special, and I can't believe there was a frenzy to obtain him. The Royals weren't going to offer him arbitration, and now the Mariners will have to give them the 22nd pick in the 2004 draft.

[pogokat]

its almost like they are trading the value of that first round pick in order to sign the free agents

 

because they dont have to spend a coupla mil in the first round over the last 2 years, then they can use it to buy other players

 

perhaps that small monetary difference is just enough for them to sign these rummies

 

i wouldnt do it...but maybe thats wht they are up to

[igor67]

I think Doug deserves a little bit more credit for offering arby to Perez and Vanderwal. It certainly looks like a no risk way to pick up 1 (for Perez) and maybe even 2 extra early draft picks. Sure it's not 1st rounders, but second-third rounders can give excellent value with much smaller price tags and still comparatively good chances of contributing. And without having to shell out for a huge bonus in the 1st round money should continue to not be a serious problem. To bad we didn't start playing around with these type C free agents before.

[colbyjack]

I think Doug deserves a little bit more credit for offering arby to Perez and Vanderwal.

 

Especially since Melvin doesn't value additional draft picks http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif .

[igor67]

Yes but I'm sure Jack Z. and his scouts love them http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif .

[Al the Thinking Man]

I can't believe either of these players is worthy of a pick. Shows how goofy the whole compensation is, huh?

[Katuluu]

Especially since Melvin doesn't value additional draft pick

 

How about he just doesn't value first round picks? http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/happy.gif

[SoCalBrewfan]

Just remember it doesn't cost a team to sign them...we'd just get a pick if they sign elsewhere.

 

There is an interesting discussion of the question of arby offers, comp picks, and the Giants' (and Mariners') apparent desire to rid themselves of 1st round picks. It reminds me at times why I dislike the baseballprospectus types, but it's interesting anyway:

 

premium.baseballprospectu...cleid=2477

[igor67]

Perhaps not quite the spot for it, but I think we need to give Melvin a little more credit for only offering a minor league deal to Perez. We all know that based on last year a lot of other organizations would have signed him like he was truly an average catcher and a number appear ready to do so. If we are going to harp on the small negative things a GM does like signing a good bench type player a million bucks a year for 2 or 3 years. We should compliment him when he shows restraint.

[Al the Thinking Man]

Doug should get credit for getting us an extra pick or two by offering these two vets arby. Excellent, simple move...especially when compared to DET signing Vina, who may not be above replacement level, to a contract for real money.