Trading partner: Oakland A's

[LouisEly]

The Oakland A's have 36-year-old Rajai Davis manning CF, 32-year-old Matt Joyce in RF, and nothing for OF prospects. They have Sonny Gray, only 27 years old and arby-eligible next year, along with bullpen pieces Madson, Casilla, and Doolittle to deal.

 

Brewers are loaded with OF prospects - Brinson, Phillips, Cordell, Ray, Clark, Harrison (and 24-year-old Santana). Not all will develop, and if they all do, there won't be room for all of them. They will have to deal some of them eventually.

 

Ray, Cordell, Orimoloye, two lower-level pitchers (Diplan? Peralta? Bickfod? Medeiros? Supak?), throw in Wily Peralta (plus some cash to pay his salary) for a change-of-scenery as well as Wilkerson, for Gray, Madson, and Doolittle. Buy out Gray's two arby years and sign him to a 5-year deal through age 32/33.

 

Using MLB.com's prospect rankings, that's the Brewers #2 (Ray), #11 (Diplan), #12 (Bickford), #16 (Cordell), and #24 (Orimoloye) plus Wily Peralta and Wilkerson.

 

I don't think it will be expensive to acquire them as Gray will likely get eight figures in arby, and Madson and Doolittle combine for over $11M in salary next year. Madison is pitching well, but at 36 and making $7.6M/year you don't have to give up a lot to get him. Doolittle is effective against both lefties and righties and has team options in 2019 and 2020 (at $6M and $6.5M), so they could have him for up to four years.

 

You aren't mortgaging the future for this year because you'd have Gray for five years, Doolittle for up to four years, and Madson is signed through next season - they could trade any of those guys in the offseason and still stick to "the plan". There won't be room for all seven of those OFs; they have to trade some of them eventually. You keep the big 4 pitching prospects (Hader, Woodruff, Ortiz, Burnes) plus Brinson.

 

Future is still bright, still sticking to the plan.

[wildcat2237]

I want no part of Sonny Gray.

 

The guy is small and has been scap loading for 10 years+. In my opinion he is ripe for a major injury.

 

To make matters worse, his numbers are declining. In 2015 he put up a 2.73 ERA in 208 innings.

 

In 2016 he was bad and posted a 5.69 ERA in 117 injury riddled innings.

 

In 2017 he has a 4.07 ERA in 72 IP.

 

And remember most of his innings are pitched in the Coliseum, a pretty big yard. Moving to Miller park wont help.

 

Finally, the A's are not dumb, they are not going to give him away. He is controllable and will command a premium.

 

I have faith that Stearns will not get anywhere near Gray.

[JosephC]

Doolittle is the hardest guy to speculate on, because while the numbers are excellent it's hard to get past the fact that he's only thrown 69 innings over the last 2 1/2 seasons. How can a team give up anything of real value for a guy like that? He's like a major league lottery ticket, if he can stay healthy he can be great but how valuable is a relief pitcher that struggles to throw 30 innings a year!

 

I'd be interested in Gray. Problem is that I wouldn't be willing to include anyone from the list of Brinson, Ray, Diaz, Lopez, Hader, Woodruff and Bickford...and once those names are removed another MLB team would have no problem outbidding the remaining pieces I could put together to try and make a realistic bid.

 

I do like Madson though. Wonder what the price-tag will be on him? As long as this year's market doesn't get to Will Smith-insanity type levels then I would be interested.

[A Swing and A Drive]

I want no part of Sonny Gray.

 

The guy is small and has been scap loading for 10 years+. In my opinion he is ripe for a major injury.

 

To make matters worse, his numbers are declining. In 2015 he put up a 2.73 ERA in 208 innings.

 

In 2016 he was bad and posted a 5.69 ERA in 117 injury riddled innings.

 

In 2017 he has a 4.07 ERA in 72 IP.

 

And remember most of his innings are pitched in the Coliseum, a pretty big yard. Moving to Miller park wont help.

 

Finally, the A's are not dumb, they are not going to give him away. He is controllable and will command a premium.

 

I have faith that Stearns will not get anywhere near Gray.

 

Personally I think Sonny Gray still has ACE potential. I think the A's will get quite the haul for him.

[OnTheBlack]

I want no part of Sonny Gray.

 

The guy is small and has been scap loading for 10 years+. In my opinion he is ripe for a major injury.

 

To make matters worse, his numbers are declining. In 2015 he put up a 2.73 ERA in 208 innings.

 

In 2016 he was bad and posted a 5.69 ERA in 117 injury riddled innings.

 

In 2017 he has a 4.07 ERA in 72 IP.

 

And remember most of his innings are pitched in the Coliseum, a pretty big yard. Moving to Miller park wont help.

 

Finally, the A's are not dumb, they are not going to give him away. He is controllable and will command a premium.

 

I have faith that Stearns will not get anywhere near Gray.

 

Personally I think Sonny Gray still has ACE potential. I think the A's will get quite the haul for him.

 

I'm not sure if I agree with the first part of that statement, but I agree with the second. He's gonna be one of the most highly sought after pitchers on the market. He's actually pitching better this year than last year. K's up, walks down..his ERA is a little higher than it probably should be. I just don't want to give up anyone right now. I love the way this team is playing. I'm generally not a fan of Bill Micheals, but I liked the way he put it today on the radio, "they're too dumb to realize they're not supposed to win." Not he was kidding and "dumb" meant "young," but I think he's right. They're just playing loose and having fun. But we've had far better teams and been further ahead and still coughed up divisions to a team 90 minutes south of Miller Park than these current teams and I still believe eventually the Cubs are gonna figure it out and eventually the Brewers are gonna probably lose 10 out of 12 or something like that and not win. And if they do...well, Sonny Gray's not gonna make a difference vs the Dodgers with Kershaw and Wood or the Nats with Scherzer/Gio and Strausburg..who might actually like up in that order.

 

I don't think the suggested trade is unfair, I think it's reasonable, I just don't see the point. I'd rather they not give up a talent like Ray..or for that matter Bickford who we haven't even seen yet and would be selling much lower on then when we bought him for a pitcher who does seem like a ticking time bomb in terms of potential for injury and a team that...again, as much as I love them, just probably isn't ready to really compete. This would be a Bucks Correy Maggette/Monta Ellis/Stephen Jackson type move.

[Eye Black]

If I could pluck a pitcher out of the A's starting rotation it would be LHP Sean Manaea. I realize the A's aren't likely to trade a good young LHP that they control through 2022, but if the Brewers are going to give up a haul of talent Manaea would provide the best combination of both short term and long term benefit. Again, I would assume the A's wouldn't be interested in entertaining a trade for Manaea unless the Brewers went overboard with the offer.

 

As bad as the current A's are, they do have a decent looking rotation for the future. Two of their current young starters were acquired in trades and have since increased their value significantly. Manaea was acquired from the Royals at the trade deadline in 2015 in exchange for Ben Zobrist and the A's also acquired recently called up rotation arm Paul Blackburn this past off-season in a trade with the Mariners for Danny Valencia. Both offer examples of receiving good surplus value via trade.

[MrTPlush]

I want no part of Sonny Gray.

 

The guy is small and has been scap loading for 10 years+. In my opinion he is ripe for a major injury.

 

To make matters worse, his numbers are declining. In 2015 he put up a 2.73 ERA in 208 innings.

 

In 2016 he was bad and posted a 5.69 ERA in 117 injury riddled innings.

 

In 2017 he has a 4.07 ERA in 72 IP.

 

And remember most of his innings are pitched in the Coliseum, a pretty big yard. Moving to Miller park wont help.

 

Finally, the A's are not dumb, they are not going to give him away. He is controllable and will command a premium.

 

I have faith that Stearns will not get anywhere near Gray.

 

Personally I think Sonny Gray still has ACE potential. I think the A's will get quite the haul for him.

 

I agree, but. I don't think I want to pay the price for the amount of risk he carries.

[LouisEly]

If I could pluck a pitcher out of the A's starting rotation it would be LHP Sean Manaea. I realize the A's aren't likely to trade a good young LHP that they control through 2022, but if the Brewers are going to give up a haul of talent Manaea would provide the best combination of both short term and long term benefit. Again, I would assume the A's wouldn't be interested in entertaining a trade for Manaea unless the Brewers went overboard with the offer.

 

As bad as the current A's are, they do have a decent looking rotation for the future. Two of their current young starters were acquired in trades and have since increased their value significantly. Manaea was acquired from the Royals at the trade deadline in 2015 in exchange for Ben Zobrist and the A's also acquired recently called up rotation arm Paul Blackburn this past off-season in a trade with the Mariners for Danny Valencia. Both offer examples of receiving good surplus value via trade.

Manaea would be a great target too, and probably could be had for the same as Gray; he has more control left, but less track record of success.

 

The A's match up ridiculously well with the Brewers as a trade partner. They need a replacement now for Rajai Davis, could use a long-term replacement for Joyce, and are likely shopping 33-year-old Jed Lowrie and trying to sell high on 30-year-old Yonder Alonso.

 

To fill those needs the Brewers have Ray (centerpiece of the deal, long-term CF solution), Cordell (short-term CF and long-term RH platoon for Olson), Dubon (replace Lowrie), Cooper (if they trade Alonso, another RH platoon for Olson), and long-term OF prospects (Harrison, Orimoloye, Z. Clark, T. Stokes, Lujano, Abreu), where they wouldn't have to give up a lot of pitching.

 

I'm hesitant to give up Phillips because of the LH bat, would much rather give up Ray, but if including Phillips means sending less pitching to Oakland then I'm fine with it. If the Brewers have to give up one of the big four pitchers I'd prefer it be Ortiz (long term conditioning concerns), but then Manaea would have to come back in the deal.

[Jenkins5]

A's are pretty old & slow, they probably would want players who will be able to impact soon as possible. They'd want Broxton, Brinson or Phillips for sure. Ray is not hitting A+ ball very well.... he could be too far away for them to target. Villar or Dubon. Villar is struggling this season but is younger, cheaper, and much more athletic option for them. They have been dangling Lowrie so 2b should be open.

[A Swing and A Drive]

The reason A's are dangling Lowrie is because they already have a top prospect, Franklin Barretto ready to man 2B.

[LouisEly]

The reason A's are dangling Lowrie is because they already have a top prospect, Franklin Barretto ready to man 2B.

They need a 2B and 3B with Plouffe gone now. They either need a 3B with Semien at SS and Barreto at 2B, or they need a 2B with Semien moving to 3B and Barreto at SS. Barreto has been playing SS at AAA this year, so the latter might be the plan.

[Eye Black]

If I could pluck a pitcher out of the A's starting rotation it would be LHP Sean Manaea. I realize the A's aren't likely to trade a good young LHP that they control through 2022, but if the Brewers are going to give up a haul of talent Manaea would provide the best combination of both short term and long term benefit. Again, I would assume the A's wouldn't be interested in entertaining a trade for Manaea unless the Brewers went overboard with the offer.

 

As bad as the current A's are, they do have a decent looking rotation for the future. Two of their current young starters were acquired in trades and have since increased their value significantly. Manaea was acquired from the Royals at the trade deadline in 2015 in exchange for Ben Zobrist and the A's also acquired recently called up rotation arm Paul Blackburn this past off-season in a trade with the Mariners for Danny Valencia. Both offer examples of receiving good surplus value via trade.

Manaea would be a great target too, and probably could be had for the same as Gray; he has more control left, but less track record of success.

 

The A's match up ridiculously well with the Brewers as a trade partner. They need a replacement now for Rajai Davis, could use a long-term replacement for Joyce, and are likely shopping 33-year-old Jed Lowrie and trying to sell high on 30-year-old Yonder Alonso.

 

To fill those needs the Brewers have Ray (centerpiece of the deal, long-term CF solution), Cordell (short-term CF and long-term RH platoon for Olson), Dubon (replace Lowrie), Cooper (if they trade Alonso, another RH platoon for Olson), and long-term OF prospects (Harrison, Orimoloye, Z. Clark, T. Stokes, Lujano, Abreu), where they wouldn't have to give up a lot of pitching.

 

I'm hesitant to give up Phillips because of the LH bat, would much rather give up Ray, but if including Phillips means sending less pitching to Oakland then I'm fine with it. If the Brewers have to give up one of the big four pitchers I'd prefer it be Ortiz (long term conditioning concerns), but then Manaea would have to come back in the deal.

Based on reports it seems the Brewers were close to giving up what it was going to take to acquire Jose Quintana. If the Brewers were willing to deal the assets for Quintana, I have to wonder again if the next best option would actually be A's LHP Sean Manaea who could help not only this year, but also anchor the staff for the highly anticipated years ahead. As Louis Ely points out the teams matchup fairly well as potential trade partners. If the Brewers believe in Manaea's talent and health he would be an outstanding pickup, and the loss of significant prospects would be mitigated at least partially by the 5.5 years the Brewers would have Manaea under team control.

[brewmann04]

I just want to have DS keep his 4 prize pitchers

[brewcrewdue80]

Oh, Sean Manaea....a 2013 draft pick...year of the Lohse Signing...Aaron Judge, Corey Kneble, Tim Anderson, Manaea, Arroyo....Yep this class is starting to show it's production Brewers took Lohse for....and the Cardinals pick of Rob Kaminsky...chimed in a lot for Milw prior to Lohse's signing, is at AA and looking solid to become a starter some day.

 

I hope we can stay away and get the Cubs to trade for Gray....Baez and Schwarber with The Cubs last top 100 for Gray and Khris Davis.

[MadThinker88]

Oh, Sean Manaea....a 2013 draft pick...year of the Lohse Signing...Aaron Judge, Corey Kneble, Tim Anderson, Manaea, Arroyo....Yep this class is starting to show it's production Brewers took Lohse for....and the Cardinals pick of Rob Kaminsky...chimed in a lot for Milw prior to Lohse's signing, is at AA and looking solid to become a starter some day.

 

I hope we can stay away and get the Cubs to trade for Gray....Baez and Schwarber with The Cubs last top 100 for Gray and Khris Davis.

 

If Rob Kaminsky could ever stay healthy he might develop into a solid starter some day. This year he made 1 start at the beginning & went on the DL.

Rob's up for Rule 5 this year. Considering other players/ talents on the Cleveland 40 man, Rob might be left off & exposed to that draft..

 

I'm guessing the Orioles will draft Rob if given the chance..

[KCBrewerfan34]

Per Jon Heyman smart $ says brewers could be team for sonny gray. crew pitching coach derek johnson was gray's coach at vanderbilt. the 2 r VERY close.

[LouisEly]

Per Jon Heyman smart $ says brewers could be team for sonny gray. crew pitching coach derek johnson was gray's coach at vanderbilt. the 2 r VERY close.

Unless Gray has some type of no-trade clause, which is highly unlikely, it likely has no effect on anything.

 

The exception being a very indirect effect, where Gray agrees to an extension if he is traded to the Brewers.

[brewmann04]

how informed is Jon in this info because seems like nothing coming from the Brewers camp or reporters.

[HighHeat19]

Gray will be a BUST!!!! Just look at Gray's Home and Away splits if you don't believe me.

[adambr2]

Gray will be a BUST!!!! Just look at Gray's Home and Away splits if you don't believe me.

 

He is literally almost the exact same pitcher home or away for his career, which is a lot more meaningful and telling than his 2017 splits.

[MrTPlush]

how informed is Jon in this info because seems like nothing coming from the Brewers camp or reporters.

 

Local Brewers media sucks. They must not talk about rumors so the Brewers are nice to them.

[Mudville9]

I guess I will start this with saying there is no indication that he on the block, but someone brought up in the Sonny Gray thread wondering what it would take to get Sean Manaea. It would take a lot, but I think this might be a good way to go if DS thinks he has too many bodies and needs to thin the herd. I'm wondering if you guys think this would be enough if DS went to BB and asked about Manaea.

 

Hader

Ray

Phillips

Peralta

Ventura

 

I personally think Hader is destined for the bullpen and I'm hoping put him in will allow us to keep Brinson. Since we aren't including Brinson, Beane will probably want his pick of OF's in our system. Peralta is up and coming and Ventura is solid but unspectacular. It seems like a ton to give up, but I believe Manaea has 5 years of control after this year and would give a solid lefty for the future (no offense to Suter).

[KeithStone53151]

I guess I will start this with saying there is no indication that he on the block, but someone brought up in the Sonny Gray thread wondering what it would take to get Sean Manaea. It would take a lot, but I think this might be a good way to go if DS thinks he has too many bodies and needs to thin the herd. I'm wondering if you guys think this would be enough if DS went to BB and asked about Manaea.

 

Hader

Ray

Phillips

Peralta

Ventura

 

I personally think Hader is destined for the bullpen and I'm hoping put him in will allow us to keep Brinson. Since we aren't including Brinson, Beane will probably want his pick of OF's in our system. Peralta is up and coming and Ventura is solid but unspectacular. It seems like a ton to give up, but I believe Manaea has 5 years of control after this year and would give a solid lefty for the future (no offense to Suter).

 

I like the idea, but that cost is a bit high. I would look at the Gio Gonzalez trade a few years back as a way to gauge what Manaea might be worth. I think Gonzalez has more value than Manaea as he was more established at the time and still had plenty of control. Manaea hasn't had a ton of success yet. I think we are talking about Ortiz, Peralta, Jungmann and Phillips or Ray in a trade for Manaea. Jungmann doesn't have much value, the other guys are key. In the trade for Gonzalez the A's got 2 pitchers, a position player, and a guy in Milone that wasn't expected to be much. Jungmann would be the milone in this case. That might be too much to give up for Manaea, but it's an interesting idea for sure.

[trwi7]

Gray will be a BUST!!!! Just look at Gray's Home and Away splits if you don't believe me.

 

He is literally almost the exact same pitcher home or away for his career, which is a lot more meaningful and telling than his 2017 splits.

 

Yeah, I think you'd have a hard time finding any player whose home/road splits are as close as Gray's.

[Eye Black]

I guess I will start this with saying there is no indication that he on the block, but someone brought up in the Sonny Gray thread wondering what it would take to get Sean Manaea. It would take a lot, but I think this might be a good way to go if DS thinks he has too many bodies and needs to thin the herd. I'm wondering if you guys think this would be enough if DS went to BB and asked about Manaea.

 

Hader

Ray

Phillips

Peralta

Ventura

 

I personally think Hader is destined for the bullpen and I'm hoping put him in will allow us to keep Brinson. Since we aren't including Brinson, Beane will probably want his pick of OF's in our system. Peralta is up and coming and Ventura is solid but unspectacular. It seems like a ton to give up, but I believe Manaea has 5 years of control after this year and would give a solid lefty for the future (no offense to Suter).

Well Manaea was also brought up in this thread a couple of weeks ago.

 

I think you are close with your proposal although I could see the A's asking for Brinson and Ortiz to replace Hader and Phillips in that deal. He does have some injury history and a shorter track record so I think the risk tempers some of the cost. My guess is the Brewers are likely to have to give up two of their top five prospects for him and another 1-2 prospects that are further down the list.

 

Here would be my guess on a trade that could possibly get it done...

 

Brinson

Ortiz

Dubon

Harrison