Time to talk extension with Arcia?

[adambr2]

No need to sign him NOW to an extension.... are u kidding me? Didn't we learn anything from the Villar situation? Many wanted to extend him too. Let's just keep him on the cheap for the next two and a half years (at least) before even considering it. He probably won't hit that well that his salary would jump to too expensive levels in arbitration.

 

Now if he wanted a Lucroy type of extension where the club made out like a bandit, I'd jump at that for many of our young guys.

 

Villar is not comparable at all. Totally different contract proposal, Villar we were just basically buying out arbitration years. Also Arcia has an incredible glove, much more of a sure bet to have positive value going forward than Villar .

 

Also kind of hard to 'learn' anything from the Villar situation half a year in -- it's still no certainty that the $20M offer would look like a bad deal for us in 4 years . Remmeber when people were relieved that Jean Segura didn't sign his extension offer?

 

Either way, it's kind of silly to dismiss an extension for Arcia on the grounds that Villar hasn't been good this year. If there's any ideal long-term extension candidate on this team to build around, it's Arcia. He could be locked up for 8 years and still only be 30 by the time his contract ends .

 

Villar and Arcia not comparable? Both players one year into majors(2016 Villar), both SS really with hopefully a plus bat, both have upside in other areas (Villar SB, Arcia Def), both Brewers, both probable similar extension contracts thru arbitration, four or five years(Villar contract specifics weren't made known except for $20 mil, not years or player/team options), both questionable bats with a small window of success (thus far).

 

Wisely dismiss the idea unless the deal would be ultra team friendly.

 

Yes, not comparable at all. "Both questionable bats?" What? I guess that's easy to say about Villar after he's struggled for half a season now, but his bat was the only reason we offered him an extension to begin with.

 

Very different types of prospects coming up, different ages and career stage. Most importantly, they could not be more different types of players. Villar's struggles this year have nothing to do with Arcia and do not represent a red flag for Arcia.

 

They are both middle infielders. That's about as deep as the similarities lie .

[JohnBriggs12]

Forget the numbers completely. Watch them play. Arcia is elite. Villar is not. That's not a knock on Villar. Elite players come along oh once a decade or so. Arcia's "hot streak" has lasted a month and a half. Sure over a season, he'll have periods where his production tails off some. That's the nature of the game. But he's showing that not only is his defense spectacular, albeit with a hiccup now and then, but he's also becoming an offensive force. His overall numbers are now very, very good. He should have received All Star consideration. Mark 2017 down. It's likely the last year for a while that Arcia won't be an All Star. That he's still batting 8th is mind boggling to me. What is Counsell watching anyway?

[Point Beer Is Best]

Forgive my stupidity on baseball finances, but could you frontload a deal similar to what the Packers do on occasion ??

If so, now would be the time to do so on Arcia while we have the lowest payroll in baseball. M.A. doesn't have the deepest pockets so absorb a good portion of that contract before you may want to make some expensive moves a few years down the road. Also, is it true that baseball players don't make as much of a fuss about re-doing their deals every 2 years like NFL players often do ? That may be another reason to lock him in. All in all - he isn't going to get any cheaper by waiting. He is going to carry that "potential" tag for quite a while regardless

 

I don't recall any situation where a pre-arby (or any pre-free agency) player was given a frontloaded contract. I think the contract structure for these players mirror pretty closely what the players would get if they go year-to-year through the arby process with the hope that the player will accept a below-market outcome on the free agency years bought out in exchange for the financial security (if things go south without the contract, the player could just be non-tendered).

 

However, in order to entice a pre-arby player to sign, you could always use a modest signing bonus ($5M or so) that the player would receive right away. They get $5M in their pocket immediately, which they otherwise would have to have waited until their 1st arby season to equal that in career earnings. The signing bonus is what enticed Braun to sign, because he had off-field business interests he wanted to finance (clothing line, restaurants, etc).

[monty57]

Yes, we should look to extend Arcia now. He currently has relatively high personal financial risk, so we should be able to get a substantial discount to what he could receive by going year-to-year.

 

Teams should treat extensions like insurance. They are transferring the risk from the player to the team, so when the risk being transferred is highest, the team will get the best discount. Essentially, the player is paying for the insurance/risk transfer by accepting a discount to what he could get if he went year-to-year.

 

Waiting a few years in order to see how the player does means that the team will pay a lot more for any free agent years bought out. If you wait too long, you're basically paying market (free agent) value, and the Brewers should generally stay away from that.

 

Assuming the GM knows what he's doing, and offers a fair deal based on the amount of risk transferred, I'm generally for extending most young, talented players as it's a great way of garnering value without undue risk.

[DHonks]

Forgive my stupidity on baseball finances, but could you frontload a deal similar to what the Packers do on occasion ??

If so, now would be the time to do so on Arcia while we have the lowest payroll in baseball. M.A. doesn't have the deepest pockets so absorb a good portion of that contract before you may want to make some expensive moves a few years down the road. Also, is it true that baseball players don't make as much of a fuss about re-doing their deals every 2 years like NFL players often do ? That may be another reason to lock him in. All in all - he isn't going to get any cheaper by waiting. He is going to carry that "potential" tag for quite a while regardless

 

The Brewers are in such good financial shape that they should consider this. Giving him more money upfront and less down the road. That would make him more likely to accept a long-term deal.

[FVBrewerFan]

Yes, we should look to extend Arcia now. He currently has relatively high personal financial risk, so we should be able to get a substantial discount to what he could receive by going year-to-year.

 

Teams should treat extensions like insurance. They are transferring the risk from the player to the team, so when the risk being transferred is highest, the team will get the best discount. Essentially, the player is paying for the insurance/risk transfer by accepting a discount to what he could get if he went year-to-year.

 

Waiting a few years in order to see how the player does means that the team will pay a lot more for any free agent years bought out. If you wait too long, you're basically paying market (free agent) value, and the Brewers should generally stay away from that.

 

Assuming the GM knows what he's doing, and offers a fair deal based on the amount of risk transferred, I'm generally for extending most young, talented players as it's a great way of garnering value without undue risk.

 

Well said. Question is what is the down side of waiting a year? If Arcia is willing to sign longer term deal with 5 1/2 years of team control why not 4 1/2?

 

Maybe the price tag goes up a little, but it gives the Brewers time to see if he can keep this up. Arcia started slowly when he came up last year, slow to start this year. Now he's clicking, but will teams adjust approach to pitching him? Of course. Will Arcia then adjust as well?? That's always the question with players at this stage in their career.

 

I would give it a year to see if he looks more like a .700 or .800 hitter. By the way, a bit off topic, but it's also telling he is already a leader on this team in many ways. Could be THE leader shortly.

[wichmae]

No need to sign him NOW to an extension.... are u kidding me? Didn't we learn anything from the Villar situation? Many wanted to extend him too. Let's just keep him on the cheap for the next two and a half years (at least) before even considering it. He probably won't hit that well that his salary would jump to too expensive levels in arbitration.

 

Now if he wanted a Lucroy type of extension where the club made out like a bandit, I'd jump at that for many of our young guys.

 

Villar is not comparable at all. Totally different contract proposal, Villar we were just basically buying out arbitration years. Also Arcia has an incredible glove, much more of a sure bet to have positive value going forward than Villar .

 

Also kind of hard to 'learn' anything from the Villar situation half a year in -- it's still no certainty that the $20M offer would look like a bad deal for us in 4 years . Remmeber when people were relieved that Jean Segura didn't sign his extension offer?

 

Either way, it's kind of silly to dismiss an extension for Arcia on the grounds that Villar hasn't been good this year. If there's any ideal long-term extension candidate on this team to build around, it's Arcia. He could be locked up for 8 years and still only be 30 by the time his contract ends .

 

Villar was never a highly rated prospect. He was a guy the Astros brought to the majors at a time they were tanking big time until their actual prospects were ready. Brewers caught lightening in a bottle when he had his career year his first season here. He was brought in to be filler just as he was in Houston. Arcia was a top 10 prospect in all of baseball and a core player in the Brewers long term plans.

 

Other than Arcia, the other long term candidate is Shaw, if only for some cost certainty through his arby years that could become very, very expensive. Shaw at 5 years, $45 million might make a lot of sense.

This is not true. He was on the top 100 for BA and was in the midseason pipeline for 2011. Villar was one of Houstons top guys before they went full tank. He was one of the key pieces that sent Roy Oswalt from HOU to Philly.

http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/prospects/rankings/top-100-prospects/2011/2611328.html

[rickh150]

Forget the numbers completely. Watch them play. Arcia is elite. Villar is not. That's not a knock on Villar. Elite players come along oh once a decade or so. Arcia's "hot streak" has lasted a month and a half. Sure over a season, he'll have periods where his production tails off some. That's the nature of the game. But he's showing that not only is his defense spectacular, albeit with a hiccup now and then, but he's also becoming an offensive force. His overall numbers are now very, very good. He should have received All Star consideration. Mark 2017 down. It's likely the last year for a while that Arcia won't be an All Star. That he's still batting 8th is mind boggling to me. What is Counsell watching anyway?

 

You were this high on him at the end of April? My guess is no. The talk was more about if he could ever be an average hitting SS. The talk was Villar is the budding star. If you were writing this post in April and were pining for his extension because he obviously was going to be really good based on just "watching them play, not looking at numbers", I'd be thoroughly impressed. Instead, it's Jonny come lately. Arcia good, Villar bad.

Pump the brakes and let's just see what he can do for a while. He isn't anywhere close to Braun 2007. No need to over reach here and try to save a few bucks in 2022 and 2023. Risk/reward still sides with too risky without as much upside in my mind.

Also, I don't know of many positive team experiences with 7 or 8 year contracts.

[rickh150]

No need to sign him NOW to an extension.... are u kidding me? Didn't we learn anything from the Villar situation? Many wanted to extend him too. Let's just keep him on the cheap

 

Villar is not comparable at all. Totally different contract proposal, Villar we were just basically buying out arbitration years. Also Arcia has an incredible glove, much more of a sure bet to have positive value going forward than Villar .

 

Also kind of hard to 'learn' anything from the Villar situation half a year in -- it's still no certainty that the $20M offer would look like a bad deal for us in 4 years . Remmeber when people were relieved that Jean Segura didn't sign his extension offer?

 

Either way, it's kind of silly to dismiss an extension for Arcia on the grounds that Villar hasn't been good this year. If there's any ideal long-term extension candidate on this team to build around, it's Arcia. He could be locked up for 8 years and still only be 30 by the time his contract ends .

 

Yes, not comparable at all. "Both questionable bats?" What? I guess that's easy to say about Villar after he's struggled for half a season now, but his bat was the only reason we offered him an extension to begin with

 

 

 

 

Yes, both questionable bats then and still. No consistency in either (yet).

Villar 26, Arcia 22.... really not that huge of gap, but I'll give you that one.

Of course Villar struggling doesn't morph into Arcia struggling. In the field, at the plate, no. However, the downturn made by Villar this season at the plate was very unforeseen, and it should remind us of buyer beware in a league with guaranteed contracts and a team with limited finances.

[rickh150]

Arcia's defense is good, but paying up to $20 million a season for a good-field, iffy-hit shortstop doesn't make sense. Right now, aside from the last six weeks, that's what he is. He's on a hot streak. It's exciting. But his career OPS is .699. His 2016 OPS at Colorado Springs was .723.

 

If he can show he can deliver an .800-ish OPS through 2018-2019, go for it. But I need more than just one month.

 

"Iffy-hit" ?? He's got all the tools to be an offensive force, uses all the field, doesn't strike out a ton, has power to all fields, this without his body totally filled out. He's an emerging star. Right now. No way his arby years will be $4 million, $6 million, $8 million. More like double that. If they could get him for 7 years $72 million it would be a bargain.

 

 

Here are the next 6 years, 2017-2022, and what the team would pay him if he performs like you say he will with the arby numbers YOU are giving....

 

2017-2019 2 million total (rounded up)

2020 8mill

2021 12mil

2020 16 mil

 

So if he does great, about 6 years for 38 mil. Just playing it out year to year. You call for an extension of 7 years for $72 million, and this would be a bargain? And this is the same guy you would have sent to AAA in May? Respectfully disagree with any sort of big money extension. Go Arcia! Be an all star and MVP and all that, but come on.... 72 mil?

[Outlander]

It would really be more like 5/38 since 2017 would not be part of the extension but I agree 72 million would be too high at this point. Around the 60 million mark would be reasonable to me though. Unlike Villar, you will get solid defense even if he doesn't sustain the hitting so the floor is higher, maybe an Alcides Escobar type player at the worst. Perhaps make the 7th year a club option with buyout to reduce the guaranteed money a bit.

[BallFour]

A comparable would be Tim Anderson from the White Sox who signed an extension in March.

 

2017 850K

2018 1.00M

2019 1.40M

2020 4.00M

2021 7.25M

2022 9.50M

2023 12.50M Team Option 1.0M Buyout

2024 14.00M Team Option 1.0M Buyout

 

So a total of 26M guaranteed with the possibility of 50.50M. I would have to think something similar to that unless somebody can convince me Arcia's glove is worth millions of dollars more than Anderson (serious question)? Also may have to pay a little more since the clock is already ticking where as the Sox had about two more "free" months to work with coming into this season without losing a year of service time.

[homer]

Last 42 games:

367/396/513

 

He does sport a .425 BABIP over that same time period and about 50% of his balls in play are grounders and he doesn't hit the ball particularly hard on average so he's getting lucky. I would wait until his luck recedes to see what you really have there before extending him. Note, I am not saying that the Brewers should not extend him, only that what he's doing right now is not indicative of who he is as a player.

[jjfanec]

Last 42 games:

367/396/513

 

He does sport a .425 BABIP over that same time period and about 50% of his balls in play are grounders and he doesn't hit the ball particularly hard on average so he's getting lucky. I would wait until his luck recedes to see what you really have there before extending him. Note, I am not saying that the Brewers should not extend him, only that what he's doing right now is not indicative of who he is as a player.

 

True but he also beats out a lot of grounder in the infield so he conceivablicould sustain a higher babip. Lately his hits have been hard hit balls. And while he might be lucky now he will also improve as a hitter and get stronger so there is plenty of reason to believe he could see his babip drop and still have an ops near 800

[MrTPlush]

Orlando Arcia having an OPS near .800 seems like quite the wishful thinking. If that is why you are antsy to extend him you better wait.

[jjfanec]

Last 42 games:

367/396/513

 

He does sport a .425 BABIP over that same time period and about 50% of his balls in play are grounders and he doesn't hit the ball particularly hard on average so he's getting lucky. I would wait until his luck recedes to see what you really have there before extending him. Note, I am not saying that the Brewers should not extend him, only that what he's doing right now is not indicative of who he is as a player.

 

True but he also beats out a lot of grounder in the infield so he conceivablicould sustain a higher babip. Lately his hits have been hard hit balls. And while he might be lucky now he will also improve as a hitter and get stronger so there is plenty of reason to believe he could see his babip drop and still have an ops near 800

[homer]

Last 42 games:

367/396/513

 

He does sport a .425 BABIP over that same time period and about 50% of his balls in play are grounders and he doesn't hit the ball particularly hard on average so he's getting lucky. I would wait until his luck recedes to see what you really have there before extending him. Note, I am not saying that the Brewers should not extend him, only that what he's doing right now is not indicative of who he is as a player.

 

True but he also beats out a lot of grounder in the infield so he conceivablicould sustain a higher babip. Lately his hits have been hard hit balls. And while he might be lucky now he will also improve as a hitter and get stronger so there is plenty of reason to believe he could see his babip drop and still have an ops near 800

 

 

His GB rate and Hard Hit rate are about the same over the last 42 games as they are for the whole season. He might be able to have a higher BABiP but not 400+

[Invader3K]

I could see Stearns exploring it after the season. Everything about Arcia screams "special player." This isn't just a guy having a hot first half, from the looks of how he's playing.

 

Sent from my XT1585 using Tapatalk

[rickh150]

I could see Stearns exploring it after the season. Everything about Arcia screams "special player." This isn't just a guy having a hot first half, from the looks of how he's playing.

 

Sent from my XT1585 using Tapatalk

 

Everything screams good glove, questions bat. The glove is a given, not the bat.

[brewcrewdue80]

A comparable would be Tim Anderson from the White Sox who signed an extension in March.

 

2017 850K

2018 1.00M

2019 1.40M

2020 4.00M

2021 7.25M

2022 9.50M

2023 12.50M Team Option 1.0M Buyout

2024 14.00M Team Option 1.0M Buyout

 

So a total of 26M guaranteed with the possibility of 50.50M. I would have to think something similar to that unless somebody can convince me Arcia's glove is worth millions of dollars more than Anderson (serious question)? Also may have to pay a little more since the clock is already ticking where as the Sox had about two more "free" months to work with coming into this season without losing a year of service time.

 

And Arcia is beating Anderson's numbers. 8HRs already, lower K rate, and better BB rate and still younger with this fact.

 

I again suggest that an early extension is giving up years of a possible extension. Some above say 7years. Great he's 29/30. I'd rather have him til he's 32-34 if the numbers add up in another year. He'll still be receiving money early in his career.

 

I really don't get the sign an extension through the team controlled years and then have options 1 or 2 years beyond. You're not gaining much if he's a young player worth extending. If he's bad you're buying him out past normal team control. If he's good, the likelihood of him signing another extension vs testing FA is a lot less now that he's paid. Then you get the decision to trade him that year after team control or hang on to and go to FA after. I just feel an Extension should be 3years or longer past original team control.

[jjfanec]

Last 42 games:

367/396/513

 

He does sport a .425 BABIP over that same time period and about 50% of his balls in play are grounders and he doesn't hit the ball particularly hard on average so he's getting lucky. I would wait until his luck recedes to see what you really have there before extending him. Note, I am not saying that the Brewers should not extend him, only that what he's doing right now is not indicative of who he is as a player.

 

True but he also beats out a lot of grounder in the infield so he conceivablicould sustain a higher babip. Lately his hits have been hard hit balls. And while he might be lucky now he will also improve as a hitter and get stronger so there is plenty of reason to believe he could see his babip drop and still have an ops near 800

 

 

His GB rate and Hard Hit rate are about the same over the last 42 games as they are for the whole season. He might be able to have a higher BABiP but not 400+

 

Of course. But his high babip is what gets him a 900 OPS. the question is could he sustain an 800 OPS down the road and I think he definitely could. As he matures a little more power will come. He is growing as a hitter going opposite field more (at least that is what announcers tell me). Arcia doesn't need to sustain the last month to be a star. With his glove and OPS near 800 would be more than enough.

[Ennder]

He isn't keeping an .800 OPS unless he starts walking a lot more. Right now he profiles as a below average hitter. He is young so there is time for that to change but nothing suggests hitting will be an asset with him yet.

[jjfanec]

He isn't keeping an .800 OPS unless he starts walking a lot more. Right now he profiles as a below average hitter. He is young so there is time for that to change but nothing suggests hitting will be an asset with him yet.

 

His Ops is .773 with a babip of .339. His babip may be a little high but with his speed it could easily stay high. Not to mention he is only 22 so there is a very good chance he improves his walk rate a little. His walk rate jumped significantly from march/April to the past two months.

 

I have no idea if Arcia can become an .800 OPS guy but the way people are acting like it isn't going to happen does seem to factor in a few things. One being age. Another being his improvement as he has gotten comfortable. His power has been better than many thought it would be.

[monty57]

It's hard to use his MiLB stats to project what he'll become, because Arcia has always been young for his level. He has held his own, scouts have loved him, and the Brewers continued to rush him through the minors and he adjusted. I like that they did this, and hope they continue to push prospects who are playing well. My only complaint is that I wish they would have waited until he was crushing AAA pitching before bringing him up, as we could've saved a year when he is in his prime instead of spending that year of service time watching him flounder as he wasn't quite MLB ready when they brought him up.

 

That's in the past now, and since he's had that year of experience and has caught up to MLB pitching I expect him to be a very good player. I would have very little concern with signing him to a long-term deal, as long as it gives us the significant discount I discussed in my earlier post. If he signs now, we're likely to get him for well under his market value for a long time. In the event he crashes and burns, the contract shouldn't be large enough to seriously hurt the franchise.

 

Making this a normal part of your business process should allow the odds to work in your favor so the good extensions far outweigh the bad ones. Again, think of the insurance industry who price things according to the risk involved. To make it work effectively, you just need to have enough talent in the system to have players who are worth extending, and Melvin and Stearns have done a good job of stocking us up over the recent past. Plus, if you have guys who are signed under value and are nearing the end of their control, they're easy to trade for a lot of young talent, as we saw in the Gomez and Lucroy trades.

[Thurston Fluff]

I think we have to also take into consideration what we have coming up at that position. Why pay a lot for a relatively small upgrade in production in one area and not have the money to get a larger upgrade somewhere else? Arcia circa 2020 might be better than someone like Dubon but is he worth more than Dubon plus the extra money we can spend to upgrade a true weakness?