Time to talk extension with Arcia?

[adambr2]

Orlando Arcia definitely looks like the future at SS for the Brewers, and I wonder what you guys would think of a long-term extension in the neighborhood of 7-8 years with him. Yes, he's under control already for 5+ more seasons, but perhaps he would be interested in some long -term security now with the Brewers also benefiting by getting him for a lesser price now than having to throw ridiculous money around in free agency. This affirms our belief in Arcia as a young cornerstone.

 

I valued his remaining pre-arby years after this one at a generous $1M each, then $4M, $6M, and $8M for his arby years. Then buy out two free agent years at $16M and $20M each, for a final price tag of 7 years, $56M after this season.

 

Thoughts?

[logan82]

Too much money on the last two years. The whole point is to get some years of free agency at a discount.

[brewcrewdue80]

I'd wait if I'm only giving him 2years extension. With his age he needs to be locked up through longer than just two years past his team control. I would say that if you went 7/56mil. You'd most likely throw a lot more early to lessen the later. Something like 2, 4, 6, 8, 10, 12, and 14. Idea being 1 to keep salary lower in the upcoming years since you have a lot to work with now and all these good players will be climbing higher in price. 2, because the cheaper he is the more valuable he will be in a trade should that time arise.

 

I'm actually thinking I'd pay more upfront to where is final year is around 11million.

 

But let's get through the season and see where he stands in production. I'd rather wait to extend guys until it's their 1st or 2nd year of Arb. You'll have a longer idea of what you are getting, if they are a Franchise player you can add more years to an extension vs eeking out 1 or 2more past team control.

[FVBrewerFan]

Yea, Arcia is at the point where he has adjusted to MLB pitching. Now the league will figure out how to pitch him. You need to go through a few of these cycles before you know what Arcia will be as a hitter. At least wait until this time next year. No real difference in terms of negotiation, so why not wait a bit.

[adambr2]

Too much money on the last two year. The whole point is to get some years of free agency at a discount.

 

It's tough to peg value out that far in the future, and I'd be fine with $12M/$15M, or whatever, even better, but I thought I was including a discount. I'm guessing by 2024 when the $20M would hit, $20M won't buy peanuts .

[Humans Need Water]

Braun signed 8/45 a month into his 2nd season. But he was an advanced college player whose calling card was his bat. Arcia is the opposite. He'll cool from his excellent 6-7wk stretch here but I'd wait to see where he is during the 2019 season - evaluate the development of his pitch recognition, approach, patience, contact, driving the ball, etc etc. He would still be controlled another 3 full seasons at that point so can easily add on to take him to 29-30yrs old. He's not polished enough offensively to give the extension now as he's not a Seager or Correa type.

[Boomer5]

The guy is hitting and his clutch defense saved two games in June.

 

Yes he needs to be here a long time. This is one prospect who after a slow start on both offense and defense has more than lived up to the hype.

[clancyphile]

Arcia's defense is good, but paying up to $20 million a season for a good-field, iffy-hit shortstop doesn't make sense. Right now, aside from the last six weeks, that's what he is. He's on a hot streak. It's exciting. But his career OPS is .699. His 2016 OPS at Colorado Springs was .723.

 

If he can show he can deliver an .800-ish OPS through 2018-2019, go for it. But I need more than just one month.

[Outlander]

I would love to see a deal that buys a couple years of free agency, he is the real deal.

[rickh150]

No need to sign him NOW to an extension.... are u kidding me? Didn't we learn anything from the Villar situation? Many wanted to extend him too. Let's just keep him on the cheap for the next two and a half years (at least) before even considering it. He probably won't hit that well that his salary would jump to too expensive levels in arbitration.

 

Now if he wanted a Lucroy type of extension where the club made out like a bandit, I'd jump at that for many of our young guys.

[JohnBriggs12]

Arcia's defense is good, but paying up to $20 million a season for a good-field, iffy-hit shortstop doesn't make sense. Right now, aside from the last six weeks, that's what he is. He's on a hot streak. It's exciting. But his career OPS is .699. His 2016 OPS at Colorado Springs was .723.

 

If he can show he can deliver an .800-ish OPS through 2018-2019, go for it. But I need more than just one month.

 

"Iffy-hit" ?? He's got all the tools to be an offensive force, uses all the field, doesn't strike out a ton, has power to all fields, this without his body totally filled out. He's an emerging star. Right now. No way his arby years will be $4 million, $6 million, $8 million. More like double that. If they could get him for 7 years $72 million it would be a bargain.

[adambr2]

No need to sign him NOW to an extension.... are u kidding me? Didn't we learn anything from the Villar situation? Many wanted to extend him too. Let's just keep him on the cheap for the next two and a half years (at least) before even considering it. He probably won't hit that well that his salary would jump to too expensive levels in arbitration.

 

Now if he wanted a Lucroy type of extension where the club made out like a bandit, I'd jump at that for many of our young guys.

 

Villar is not comparable at all. Totally different contract proposal, Villar we were just basically buying out arbitration years. Also Arcia has an incredible glove, much more of a sure bet to have positive value going forward than Villar .

 

Also kind of hard to 'learn' anything from the Villar situation half a year in -- it's still no certainty that the $20M offer would look like a bad deal for us in 4 years . Remmeber when people were relieved that Jean Segura didn't sign his extension offer?

 

Either way, it's kind of silly to dismiss an extension for Arcia on the grounds that Villar hasn't been good this year. If there's any ideal long-term extension candidate on this team to build around, it's Arcia. He could be locked up for 8 years and still only be 30 by the time his contract ends .

[MrTPlush]

I agree with your figure in the original post. That is about what Adrelton Simmons got and they are pretty darn similar all things considered. Simmons has better defense, but Arcia probably has a more highly regarded bat when it comes to potential. If he finishes out the season the 7/$57mil offer would be pretty accurate. However I would spread the money out more so the later years are not 16/20mil.

 

Orlando Arcia will command a lot more than say a Villar type because his defense gives him a high floor. That makes it more risk for Arcia and less for us so we have to pay up for it. If Arcia continues to hit at this level through next year you will be paying a lot more than $55mil for a contract.

[BuckyBrewer61]

This season, Arcia's BAbip over this recent hot stretch (past 40 games) is .416, prior to that it was .236. His true ability with the bat at this point of his career is certainly somewhere in between.

 

I love the guy and think he is the real deal, but his production with the bat for the past month+ is a bit of an aberration.

[JohnBriggs12]

No need to sign him NOW to an extension.... are u kidding me? Didn't we learn anything from the Villar situation? Many wanted to extend him too. Let's just keep him on the cheap for the next two and a half years (at least) before even considering it. He probably won't hit that well that his salary would jump to too expensive levels in arbitration.

 

Now if he wanted a Lucroy type of extension where the club made out like a bandit, I'd jump at that for many of our young guys.

 

Villar is not comparable at all. Totally different contract proposal, Villar we were just basically buying out arbitration years. Also Arcia has an incredible glove, much more of a sure bet to have positive value going forward than Villar .

 

Also kind of hard to 'learn' anything from the Villar situation half a year in -- it's still no certainty that the $20M offer would look like a bad deal for us in 4 years . Remmeber when people were relieved that Jean Segura didn't sign his extension offer?

 

Either way, it's kind of silly to dismiss an extension for Arcia on the grounds that Villar hasn't been good this year. If there's any ideal long-term extension candidate on this team to build around, it's Arcia. He could be locked up for 8 years and still only be 30 by the time his contract ends .

 

Villar was never a highly rated prospect. He was a guy the Astros brought to the majors at a time they were tanking big time until their actual prospects were ready. Brewers caught lightening in a bottle when he had his career year his first season here. He was brought in to be filler just as he was in Houston. Arcia was a top 10 prospect in all of baseball and a core player in the Brewers long term plans.

 

Other than Arcia, the other long term candidate is Shaw, if only for some cost certainty through his arby years that could become very, very expensive. Shaw at 5 years, $45 million might make a lot of sense.

[clancyphile]

Arcia's defense is good, but paying up to $20 million a season for a good-field, iffy-hit shortstop doesn't make sense. Right now, aside from the last six weeks, that's what he is. He's on a hot streak. It's exciting. But his career OPS is .699. His 2016 OPS at Colorado Springs was .723.

 

If he can show he can deliver an .800-ish OPS through 2018-2019, go for it. But I need more than just one month.

 

"Iffy-hit" ?? He's got all the tools to be an offensive force, uses all the field, doesn't strike out a ton, has power to all fields, this without his body totally filled out. He's an emerging star. Right now. No way his arby years will be $4 million, $6 million, $8 million. More like double that. If they could get him for 7 years $72 million it would be a bargain.

 

Month by month .OPS during Arcia's career:

August 2016: .565

September 2016: .691

April 2017: .706

May 2017: .620

June 2017: .848

 

He's had a very good month, but what is the real Arcia? The .848 OPS in June (which would, if it becomes normal season-long production, be worth $15-$20 million a year).

 

But the 2016 numbers at Colorado Springs are a red flag in my mind. Arcia posted an OPS of .800 in Biloxi, but regressed by 77 points of OPS in one of the most hitter-friendly parks in professional baseball.

 

Better to wait two years and see if what you say turns out. In the meantime maybe try Hiura at short in the minors, just in case the real Arcia is closer to the sub-.700 OPS as opposed to the .848 OPS, especially since a couple of the shortstops the Crew drafted this year aren't signing. I really liked Workman and Campbell.

[MrTPlush]

I agree with your figure in the original post. That is about what Adrelton Simmons got and they are pretty darn similar all things considered. Simmons has better defense, but Arcia probably has a more highly regarded bat when it comes to potential. If he finishes out the season the 7/$57mil offer would be pretty accurate. However I would spread the money out more so the later years are not 16/20mil.

 

Orlando Arcia will command a lot more than say a Villar type because his defense gives him a high floor. That makes it more risk for Arcia and less for us so we have to pay up for it. If Arcia continues to hit at this level through next year you will be paying a lot more than $55mil for a contract.

[Sixto]

Forgive my stupidity on baseball finances, but could you frontload a deal similar to what the Packers do on occasion ??

If so, now would be the time to do so on Arcia while we have the lowest payroll in baseball. M.A. doesn't have the deepest pockets so absorb a good portion of that contract before you may want to make some expensive moves a few years down the road. Also, is it true that baseball players don't make as much of a fuss about re-doing their deals every 2 years like NFL players often do ? That may be another reason to lock him in. All in all - he isn't going to get any cheaper by waiting. He is going to carry that "potential" tag for quite a while regardless

[rickh150]

No need to sign him NOW to an extension.... are u kidding me? Didn't we learn anything from the Villar situation? Many wanted to extend him too. Let's just keep him on the cheap for the next two and a half years (at least) before even considering it. He probably won't hit that well that his salary would jump to too expensive levels in arbitration.

 

Now if he wanted a Lucroy type of extension where the club made out like a bandit, I'd jump at that for many of our young guys.

 

Villar is not comparable at all. Totally different contract proposal, Villar we were just basically buying out arbitration years. Also Arcia has an incredible glove, much more of a sure bet to have positive value going forward than Villar .

 

Also kind of hard to 'learn' anything from the Villar situation half a year in -- it's still no certainty that the $20M offer would look like a bad deal for us in 4 years . Remmeber when people were relieved that Jean Segura didn't sign his extension offer?

 

Either way, it's kind of silly to dismiss an extension for Arcia on the grounds that Villar hasn't been good this year. If there's any ideal long-term extension candidate on this team to build around, it's Arcia. He could be locked up for 8 years and still only be 30 by the time his contract ends .

 

Needn't I remind you, baseball contracts are guaranteed money. It's really easy spending other people's money and giving gobs to maybe save a little in the long run, but much Tougher making out that check to a possible flop while eating up key resources for the smallest market team in baseball. To do it on a great fielding, light hitting SS, who only a week ago was NOT getting any calls for a long-term deal BECAUSE of his questionable bat, is borderline insane for us. Let this good hitting spell/stretch play itself out. Let's see how he does in 2018 and maybe even 2019 when we are paying him peanuts. Then maybe offer the extension.

[logan82]

That contract for Simmons does not look all that great right now. It looks like they paid him for the 17 HR in his first full year.

 

They can load the contract any way they want. If the value over the life of the contract is equal or more than he would get going through arbitration and free agency then we shouldn't do the deal. If he wants the security of the guaranteed money he has to give something up. I would definitely give him a signing bonus to load some money towards the front.

[Austin Tatious]

I think it's a good idea but I'd wait a year at the least, possibly two. But sometime in the near future, I think we should try to get this done.

[trwi7]

$1M

$1M

$3M

$5M

$6M

$10M

$12M

$15M club option ($3M buyout)

 

That's $41M guaranteed. 8 years, $53M total if the club option is exercised.

[newrivervalley]

Lucroy is up for sale now. Would you trade him for the current and AAA or AA Brewer catchers? Acria is improving month to month, and is young. No need to extend, but if he continues to improve, give him an extension.

[brewcrewdue80]

$1M

$1M

$3M

$5M

$6M

$10M

$12M

$15M club option ($3M buyout)

 

That's $41M guaranteed. 8 years, $53M total if the club option is exercised.

 

The problem with the 1m, 1m just doesn't excite to sign an extension, He'd be getting maybe 400k and 300k more those two years than likely standard pay. On the Brewers' perspective his salary increases affects the payroll down the road. You take a Starlin Castro approach where he immediately got 5mil and his payroll hit never exceeds 12mil in what was an 8/60.5mil contract. Maybe in that estimate you would have like 8 and 9.5mil before the 15mil option year saving a little hit towards the end of the contract.

 

This season, Arcia's BAbip over this recent hot stretch (past 40 games) is .416, prior to that it was .236. His true ability with the bat at this point of his career is certainly somewhere in between.

 

I love the guy and think he is the real deal, but his production with the bat for the past month+ is a bit of an aberration.

 

Yeah .416 is unsustainable, but with his learning curve, .236 isn't something he should revert to. Maybe he settles in around .330 or say near the ML average. So below .660 OPS isn't really in his future. I think where we're getting to is understanding he should be above .700 OPS through a full season. Ithink he was at 1.1WAR prior to yesterday's game pushing him to 1.4WAR today and now his game today, I'll be interested in seeing how much he gains tomorrow on BRef. You're looking at a modest 3WAR easily out of him with elite defense. He pushes his stats up a little like this stretch, you gotta put6-7 in play but around 5WAR. His K pct is lower so maintaining a better than .270 BA is well within reason and with BABIP he's likely going to put together some .300+seasons. Maybe sorta like Jean Segura who's season was worth 5.6WAR last year at .319 with 20HRs something that may not be out of the realm for Arcia now that he's reached 8 at mid-season. Only thing is Arcia is a better defender so yeah saying 7WAR is in play is not jumping the gun.

[rickh150]

No need to sign him NOW to an extension.... are u kidding me? Didn't we learn anything from the Villar situation? Many wanted to extend him too. Let's just keep him on the cheap for the next two and a half years (at least) before even considering it. He probably won't hit that well that his salary would jump to too expensive levels in arbitration.

 

Now if he wanted a Lucroy type of extension where the club made out like a bandit, I'd jump at that for many of our young guys.

 

Villar is not comparable at all. Totally different contract proposal, Villar we were just basically buying out arbitration years. Also Arcia has an incredible glove, much more of a sure bet to have positive value going forward than Villar .

 

Also kind of hard to 'learn' anything from the Villar situation half a year in -- it's still no certainty that the $20M offer would look like a bad deal for us in 4 years . Remmeber when people were relieved that Jean Segura didn't sign his extension offer?

 

Either way, it's kind of silly to dismiss an extension for Arcia on the grounds that Villar hasn't been good this year. If there's any ideal long-term extension candidate on this team to build around, it's Arcia. He could be locked up for 8 years and still only be 30 by the time his contract ends .

 

Villar and Arcia not comparable? Both players one year into majors(2016 Villar), both SS really with hopefully a plus bat, both have upside in other areas (Villar SB, Arcia Def), both Brewers, both probable similar extension contracts thru arbitration, four or five years(Villar contract specifics weren't made known except for $20 mil, not years or player/team options), both questionable bats with a small window of success (thus far).

 

Wisely dismiss the idea unless the deal would be ultra team friendly.