Deadline approaching-opinions incoming

[MrTPlush]

No. He isn't on the 40 man roster and would hit an innings limit only making him useful for the bullpen which would almost surely not happen till September making him ineligible for postseason ball. Seems rather pointless. He has been good, but unless they commit before September seems like a stretch.

[adambr2]

No. He isn't on the 40 man roster and would hit an innings limit only making him useful for the bullpen which would almost surely not happen till September making him ineligible for postseason ball. Seems rather pointless. He has been good, but unless they commit before September seems like a stretch.

 

I don't see the 40 man being an issue at all. Still some dead weight there and likely some movement on it in the upcoming months.

 

The innings limit is a fair point however. He's already at 95. I don't know when they plan to cut him off this year but I can't imagine too many more starts in him this year.

[Greenleaf1]

Burnes was pulled after 6 innings in his last start with a pitch count somewhere in the 80's, so I think they're already starting to control his innings.

 

I think when Burnes comes up it'll be to start, and probably not until next year unless we have a lot of injuries/trades in our future this year. No need to rush him, especially since scouting reports seem to indicate that he's kinda lacking a consistent 3rd pitch and may have issues with consistent delivery. Let him polish out some of that stuff if possible and come up to the Majors a more complete package.

[3and2Fastball]

I'm good with trading Brinson and/or Ray along with Hader and somebody for Quintana

 

I think Phillips is the best of our outfield prospects anyways, and the only untouchable I see in the Brewers farm system, to me, is Keston Hiura. Obviously I'd rather not give up Hader, but you have to give to get, and I don't think it is a stretch to think that Quintana will outproduce Hader over the next 2.5 seasons. I'd prefer not to trade Woodruff

[bill hAll Star]

I'm good with trading Brinson and/or Ray along with Hader and somebody for Quintana

 

I think Phillips is the best of our outfield prospects anyways, and the only untouchable I see in the Brewers farm system, to me, is Keston Hiura. Obviously I'd rather not give up Hader, but you have to give to get, and I don't think it is a stretch to think that Quintana will outproduce Hader over the next 2.5 seasons. I'd prefer not to trade Woodruff

 

Quintana likely helps this year, so that cannot be ignored, but he's not a lockdown playoff ace unless he's really on his game. I'd rather hold tight and overpay starting pitchers.

 

I'll probably get stuff thrown at me, but looking at payroll over the next 2 years, if my choice was Quintana or Option B and Option B was that the Tigers were willing to give away Verlander's contract for only a middling prospect if the other team took on the contract...give me Verlander.

 

My vision of the next few years is a great supply of MLB-caliber depth in the minors for lower-rotation pitching and position players and the Brewers overpay for starters. I'd love to not have to overpay for front-rotation pitching, but I am still skeptical that we've got guys that have frontline potential. Anderson and Nelson may change that if they stay consistent. I'd rather keep the pipeline of Ray, Hader, Brinson, etc. so that we've always got cheap options coming up for the next 10 years an we can blow money on overpriced pitching since we'll have some extra coin to spend.

[Lathund]

I'll probably get stuff thrown at me, but looking at payroll over the next 2 years, if my choice was Quintana or Option B and Option B was that the Tigers were willing to give away Verlander's contract for only a middling prospect if the other team took on the contract...give me Verlander.

 

Reports suggest that Detroit are looking for a big return in addition to the other team taking on salary. They might of course soften closer to the deadline, but they don't seem to want to do it cheaply. But yeah, if we could do it without giving up much in the way of prospects, I'd be fine with that. Like you, I'd prefer it over Quintana. I just don't think these massive trades for one player are very rarely worth it. I'd do it if we were clear contenders for the WS and had basically every other piece of the puzzle. But now? No, the value isn't there. A lot of teams want Quintana, and that'll drive prices up. I'd be happy to let the Cubs overpay for starters this window, shortening the time until their next rebuild.

[Humans Need Water]

Ray is a bust in the HR department. If he's going to be a 15HR max guy with a lower OB and struggles to .800 OPS because of both those factors, yeah trade him away. Demi O, Harrison, Phillips, Cordell are all guys who can exceed that output. Draft day the ceiling projection was 30-30 with Ray, but his numbers in the minors for a "top" college hitting pick are 9HRs 28 SBs in 120games with a.318OB. This was the #5 pick last year. He should be doing better than he is somewhere or he isn't better than what the Brewers' organization already has a number of. That's it with him, a safe high floor pick, but he's not getting you 5+ WAR in a given season with .275/.315/.380 numbers. Broxton with his numbers of 13/14 and defense hasn't even earned 1BWAR. Sure his avg is lower but his slg is far higher than Ray's likely ever will be. Trading Ray now may for something that helps this team in a different way is likely better value than he would give his on his own. But I expect the White Sox to understand this and in no way want to headline a deal for Quintana with Ray. But Toronto with my suggestion towards JA Happ I think would work nicely.

You really hate Corey Ray don't you.

 

Hated Clark too and this season his stats back me up vs rookie. Hernan Perez brings a better OF potential than Ray did/does

 

Can't draft enough Pitching and winners were there for the taking.

 

Let's say 50% of 1st round position do anything in ML. And 40% of Pitchers do anything in ML. But at the deadline it costs not only the 50% that does project to do anything in the ML but 2 more pieces of better than 50% to make the ML. It is annoying that we keep taking OFs in 1st round, and not the top rated ones at that over any SP atop the draft board with top 20 picks. Hitting on one of those SPs helps more than the position player.

Clark and Ray were absolutely top rated OFs in their draft classes - both rated at the top for their bats too. What percent of Top 20 draft picks, that are starting pitchers, become #1-2 MLB caliber pitchers? What percent of Top 20 draft picks, that are premium up-the-middle position players, become better than average or better starting MLB players? The percentages will favor the position player vs the pitcher. The majority of those SPs drafted are out of HS too. You also say "OF" as if the Brewers are drafting LF or RF in the 1st Rd when in fact they're CF - up the middle premium defensive positions because that provides great value in itself.

 

The Brewers are going to have to trade 3+ of these CF prospects/current MLB players and quality rotational arms can come back. Arms that have already reached the upper levels of the minors or are young in their MLB careers (which takes away a huge chunk of risk compared to drafting them because already seen them have success in the minors). We drafted Woodruff and Burnes but Hader, Ortiz were AA when acquired and Bickford (taken right after Clark) was in A+ and very well could have started at AA this year. And part of the reason we'll bring those arms back is because our prospects play a premium position.....2 of the aforementioned prospects were acquired for Lucroy © and Gomez (CF).

 

Perez having more potential than Ray in the OF is insane and utterly comical. So is trading Ray (Top 40 overall) for JA Happ (35 next year in final season) when the rotation isn't even the area of need.

 

Clark spent less than half a season in A and was injured the entire time basically. He's currently in A+ and 2.5yrs young for level (I think 3rd youngest for level in org) and has a 376 OBP, 737 OPS, 21 SB, 19% BB rate, 114 wRC+ on the season. Since June 1 he's 238/425/794 with 23.7% BB rate, 135 wRC+. Over the past 3wks he's 269/465/946 with 25.4% BB rate, 172 wRC+.

 

I don't pay attention to the first 2-3wks after a prospect returns from injury (Ray) so since May 1 he's 247/339/718, 18 SB, 11.8% BB rate, 101 wRC+. He also plays a very good CF with a solid arm; great speed. The guy has 122 professional games under his belt and you're already calling him a bust and saying he should be traded. Ray just gave an interview on the Future Game and he discusses what he's working on as a hitter - starting with his middle approach earlier in the season and transitioning more recently to letting the ball get deeper in the zone to drive it oppo with authority. Guess what happens when you work on the latter? You tend to K more and make more outs until you figure it out. He even said that the numbers don't reflect his actual progression as a player this year. He's clearly working on things. Simply staring at numbers on the surface believing that story is reality is short-sighted. These guys aren't drafted then thrown out there to play their game applying zero instructional/developmental tools. This is all about putting them in a greater position for success long-term (ie 2016 Nottingham and Phillips), not solely what the "numbers" say.

 

I'm not opposed to trading Ray because of our current MLB OF + 3 AAA prospects ahead of him but people "wanting" him gone I simply don't understand.

[Humans Need Water]

Brinson isn't a must to get Quintana. We have plenty of quality prospects where we don't have to give up our #1 guy. I doubt we go after anyone that could garner Brinson, but if we did we could do it with other guys.

Technically no but also yes. The White Sox don't have any OF, let alone a CF, in the system even remotely close to Brinson. Brinson also has a higher ceiling than their entire starting OF at the MLB level - 2 young guys + Melky. They would absolutely want Brinson back because he fills a huge need for the next 6yrs at a premium defensive position and he's essentially MLB ready.

 

If Brinson isn't in the deal we could still technically get it done but then you're giving up 3 Top 100 + 1 (most likely Hader, Ray, Ortiz/Woodruff). No thanks

[FVBrewerFan]

How about trading Knebel for another Top 100 prospect? Great year, but we know how long closers last, and what their value is at the deadline. Brewers have lot of other players who have value that could fetch a Top100 prospect or close to it.

 

I think they still need more pitching talent throughout the organization, and I rather trade for that. Giving up a bunch of top prospects for a "good" starting pitcher? No thanks. It's as if the last 35 years never happened. The system is finally being built to last and now we want to deal away some of the best pieces already?

[brewerfan82]

Has anyone looked into which players might be potentially exposed to the Rule 5 draft this offseason? As some have mentioned, we are getting stocked to the point that we're risking losing talent this route each year. If we can identify the Miguel Diaz's of the world now and use them to get returns in-season before we potentially lose them for nothing in the offseason, that may be an interesting starting point for some possible trade ideas.

[trwi7]

How about trading Knebel for another Top 100 prospect? Great year, but we know how long closers last, and what their value is at the deadline. Brewers have lot of other players who have value that could fetch a Top100 prospect or close to it.

 

I think they still need more pitching talent throughout the organization, and I rather trade for that. Giving up a bunch of top prospects for a "good" starting pitcher? No thanks. It's as if the last 35 years never happened. The system is finally being built to last and now we want to deal away some of the best pieces already?

 

I've said this for a while. Great year for Knebel but I don't think a 1 ERA and 15 K/9 is sustainable for any length of time. If some team offers us a haul, we'd be fools not to take it regardless of where we are in the standings.

[FVBrewerFan]

Has anyone looked into which players might be potentially exposed to the Rule 5 draft this offseason? As some have mentioned, we are getting stocked to the point that we're risking losing talent this route each year. If we can identify the Miguel Diaz's of the world now and use them to get returns in-season before we potentially lose them for nothing in the offseason, that may be an interesting starting point for some possible trade ideas.

 

Yes, there's a thread on the minor league forum. Rule 5 will be manageable again next year.

[nate82]

What about Gerrit Cole what would it take to get him from the Pirates and would it be worth it?

[LouisEly]

The Brewers are going to have to trade 3+ of these CF prospects/current MLB players and quality rotational arms can come back.

 

I'm not opposed to trading Ray because of our current MLB OF + 3 AAA prospects ahead of him but people "wanting" him gone I simply don't understand.

It's more of the former than the latter. People who want to trade him (such as myself) do so not because we think he's a "bust", but because 1) the Brewers will need to trade some of those OF eventually and B) we want the Brewers to do it before he loses any value.

 

Yes, he's only 122 games into his pro career, yes he got placed aggressively, yes he's working on specific things. But that's no guarantee that he will be successful. History is littered with Top 10 picks who didn't pan out for whatever reason. We want to maximize the trade value and holding on has risks. There were questions about his hit tool in college, and those questions so far have not gone away. There are legitimate risks to holding on to him, and to your point, those risks may or may not materialize. But when you have Broxton, Brinson, Phillips... I'd rather not take the chance.

 

If the Brewers were starved for CF prospects then I'd be a lot more patient with him. But that's not the case.

 

It's also been clear that I've been advocating trading him for pitchers under 30 with multiple years of control left, not pitchers >30. (I never said Ray for Samardzjia.)

[brewcrewdue80]

Can't draft enough Pitching and winners were there for the taking.

 

 

Clark and Ray were absolutely top rated OFs in their draft classes - both rated at the top for their bats too. What percent of Top 20 draft picks, that are starting pitchers, become #1-2 MLB caliber pitchers? What percent of Top 20 draft picks, that are premium up-the-middle position players, become better than average or better starting MLB players? The percentages will favor the position player vs the pitcher. The majority of those SPs drafted are out of HS too. You also say "OF" as if the Brewers are drafting LF or RF in the 1st Rd when in fact they're CF - up the middle premium defensive positions because that provides great value in itself.

 

The Brewers are going to have to trade 3+ of these CF prospects/current MLB players and quality rotational arms can come back. Arms that have already reached the upper levels of the minors or are young in their MLB careers (which takes away a huge chunk of risk compared to drafting them because already seen them have success in the minors). We drafted Woodruff and Burnes but Hader, Ortiz were AA when acquired and Bickford (taken right after Clark) was in A+ and very well could have started at AA this year. And part of the reason we'll bring those arms back is because our prospects play a premium position.....2 of the aforementioned prospects were acquired for Lucroy © and Gomez (CF).

 

Perez having more potential than Ray in the OF is insane and utterly comical. So is trading Ray (Top 40 overall) for JA Happ (35 next year in final season) when the rotation isn't even the area of need.

 

Clark spent less than half a season in A and was injured the entire time basically. He's currently in A+ and 2.5yrs young for level (I think 3rd youngest for level in org) and has a 376 OBP, 737 OPS, 21 SB, 19% BB rate, 114 wRC+ on the season. Since June 1 he's 238/425/794 with 23.7% BB rate, 135 wRC+. Over the past 3wks he's 269/465/946 with 25.4% BB rate, 172 wRC+.

 

I don't pay attention to the first 2-3wks after a prospect returns from injury (Ray) so since May 1 he's 247/339/718, 18 SB, 11.8% BB rate, 101 wRC+. He also plays a very good CF with a solid arm; great speed. The guy has 122 professional games under his belt and you're already calling him a bust and saying he should be traded. Ray just gave an interview on the Future Game and he discusses what he's working on as a hitter - starting with his middle approach earlier in the season and transitioning more recently to letting the ball get deeper in the zone to drive it oppo with authority. Guess what happens when you work on the latter? You tend to K more and make more outs until you figure it out. He even said that the numbers don't reflect his actual progression as a player this year. He's clearly working on things. Simply staring at numbers on the surface believing that story is reality is short-sighted. These guys aren't drafted then thrown out there to play their game applying zero instructional/developmental tools. This is all about putting them in a greater position for success long-term (ie 2016 Nottingham and Phillips), not solely what the "numbers" say.

 

I'm not opposed to trading Ray because of our current MLB OF + 3 AAA prospects ahead of him but people "wanting" him gone I simply don't understand.

 

Yes I am concerned Ray has bust potential, but I'm arguing that what surrounds him in tools is something that is beaten by all these other great OF prospects the Brewers have amassed. You can throw the tops of the classes sure, but Ray was a 5th pick out of College. He's at 30%+ in K rate still in A+ ball. I don't believe that leads to .340 OB unless the bb rate sticks, but again, he's at A+level, not ML pitching who paint the corners over wild pitching. Oh and that painting the corners gets better as he climbs the ladder so 30%+ K rate may worsen.

 

Clark may turn out, looks more so than Ray, I wasn't a fan of his swing when I watched a lot of vids pre 2015 draft. I just believe there were better players to pick from vs Clark. To this point no one has reached the Majors picked below Clark.

 

I said when you hit on a SP pick you get back a rather large haul if you trade him. Vs., trading 1,2,3 and/4 of these talented prospects to get that 1 SP, yes guys like Happ who are with just 1.4 years of control remaining and over 30.

 

The first 4 picks after Ray were SPs, and Jason Groome came shortly after. Bickford as you said was picked directly after Clark. We could have had the SPs in our system rather than trade for them. And now need to trade for. Our 1st round picks have been brutal since Braun was drafted. If you're going to suck, suck picking the need of your Franchise for decades vs. the position players.