Justin Verlander

[Austin Tatious]

I'd say Ray is way too much to give up for Verlander's contract. I also would have a guy like Monte Harrison as a no touch. You could work something else out.

[StearnsFTW]

Reillymcshane, I've long advocated acquiring Verlander for many of the reasons in that article. I would consider taking him on with his entire salary if we could give up fringe prospects--guys like Taylor, Coulter, Jungmann, Lopez, Wren. I'd even consider Dubon, Erceg, or Ray

 

Well, I'd say it's 100% clear that they can't get anything for him unless they pay some of his contract. So, what do you want to sell Dubon, Erceg or Ray for? $10,000,000? $20,000,000?

 

I'm seriously asking. Not trying to be a jerk.

 

For me, I'm just a fan, it's not my money. I don't want any of those guys being traded for Verlander just so our owner can save money in a season where payroll is down fairly significantly.

[And That]

I don't know that Detroit views it that way. Just optically, if they dump Verlander for like Ronnie Gideon, there's going to be a ton of pushback from their fans on that. It might not be worth the fuss it will create.

[StearnsFTW]

They may not. And I'm OK with that. Although, really, it's time to face reality in Detroit. They're going to be very bad for a while unless they just put the plow down and light more money on fire.

 

I would be hoping for a fire sale this offseason if I were a Tiger fan.

[reillymcshane]

Reillymcshane, I've long advocated acquiring Verlander for many of the reasons in that article. I would consider taking him on with his entire salary if we could give up fringe prospects--guys like Taylor, Coulter, Jungmann, Lopez, Wren. I'd even consider Dubon, Erceg, or Ray

 

Well, I'd say it's 100% clear that they can't get anything for him unless they pay some of his contract. So, what do you want to sell Dubon, Erceg or Ray for? $10,000,000? $20,000,000?

 

I'm seriously asking. Not trying to be a jerk.

 

For me, I'm just a fan, it's not my money. I don't want any of those guys being traded for Verlander just so our owner can save money in a season where payroll is down fairly significantly.

I think it's totally a fair question. What would the team sell? I guess it comes down to depth. We've lost Cordell, but I'm thinking an OF is probably the best thing we could send that would knock off $10M or $20M or whatever. You're initial group of guys (Taylor, Coulter, Jungmann, Lopez, Wren) are very fringy - but one or two of them might have appeal as to Detroit. Remember, right now, they need quality as well as quantity. One of them might end up as a major leaguer with a change of scenery. But I think a good - but not great prospect - such as Dubon or Trent Clark would do the trick.

 

Let's say Verlander and $20M in exchange for Dubon or Clark, and Wren and Lopez. Detroit gets an okay prospect or two (nothing great, but still with potential) and unloads $45M in commitments.

 

Thought process: Let's say Verlander is a 3.0 WAR pitcher (he's at 2.2 in both bWAR and fWAR). If he can maintain that for a couple of more years - that's about 7.0 WAR for the rest of his contract. With 1 WAR equalling about $8M - that means Verlander is worth about $56M. He's owed about $65M - meaning he's overpaid by about $10M. A guy like Dubon or Clark (plus a couple of throw ins) is probably worth about $10M. Thus we take back about $20M to equal the entire thing. You might think we need a premium to get Verlander - but if that was the case, we'd just have claimed him and hoped Detroit let us have him.

 

Another idea might involve Verlander for Phillips - but I think Phillips has more value than Dubon or Clark (my opinion). Maybe we get something else back or involve more money ... just a thought.

 

As noted, I think a huge issue is that Detroit isn't going to cough up Verlander for a low level talent. It's a terrible PR move. Perhaps it's more prospects - and then more money sent back (say Dubon and Clark - plus a couple of throw ins - for Verlander and $25M or $30M). Again, just a thought.

 

Perhaps I'm thinking to analytically -- perhaps dealing Verlander is just not going to happen without Detroit really getting something good. There's an emotional element to a deal like this that would be hard for Detroit. Turning Verlander's value into actual dollars might not work for the Tigers - and it just might not be feasible in the end.

 

I want to stress that I'm not advocating for this deal. It's just an idea. Having Verlander would be really interesting, but I don't know if I think it would be worth it. But he would interesting to have. His workhorse ability in the rotation would be welcome - and he might really thrive moving the NL at this stage.

[superfly]

I find it curious that the "big wigs" in baseball keep talking about the Brewers and Verlander. Clearly at this point somewhere along the line (or even now) there must have been some fairly serious discussions had about a deal. It ain't like the Milwaukee Brewers are the team that all of MLB fandom wants to hear about constantly.

[MrTPlush]

It's purely because Verlanders contract and situation(not expensive when it comes to prospects) is why we are connected to him so much.

 

One could point to our current starters and say we don't need Verlander, but that is short sighted. Postseason comes and you have a playoff series(or worse yet a wild card game. You have the option of Justin Verlander or Brent Suter, who you got? That's where Verlander or a Sonny Gray becomes a huge difference maker.

 

Justin Verlander is a better bet to pitch like an ace and dramatically increases our chance of winning postseason games/series. That gives us a Top 3 of Verlander/Nelson/Anderson. That's not bad if you think Anderson can be well above average when it matter. Then our #4 is Zach Davies who is looking a lot more like his 2016 self.

[StearnsFTW]

In a season where payroll is down , and we have $26,000,000 committed next year with a likely payroll around $60,000,000 again, Verlander seems like a great idea to me. There's really no down side other than Mark's money, which, again who cares.

 

I don't think he'd come here though.

[3and2Fastball]

The Brewers & Verlander seems like such an unlikely thing. I'll believe it when I see it

[Point Beer Is Best]

I think it's unlikely because of the optics for Detroit. It certainly would make sense for the Brewers to add Verlander since they appear to be able to absorb his contract and not have to part with legitimate prospects. For the Brewers, it would almost be akin to signing him as a free agent.

 

But on the Detroit side of things, even if it makes business sense to just cut the payroll, how in the world do you survive the PR hit of dealing Justin Verlander for a bag of baseballs?

 

That's why it's so unlikely. You may have to structure a deal around Ray who is still a "ranked" prospect with 1st round status for Detroit to survive the PR hit.

[A Swing and A Drive]

I think it's unlikely because of the optics for Detroit. It certainly would make sense for the Brewers to add Verlander since they appear to be able to absorb his contract and not have to part with legitimate prospects. For the Brewers, it would almost be akin to signing him as a free agent.

 

But on the Detroit side of things, even if it makes business sense to just cut the payroll, how in the world do you survive the PR hit of dealing Justin Verlander for a bag of baseballs?

 

That's why it's so unlikely. You may have to structure a deal around Ray who is still a "ranked" prospect with 1st round status for Detroit to survive the PR hit.

 

This is spot on. It would be the equivalant of the Brewers giving Ryan Braun to the Tigers (or another contending team) for basically free last August, just to rid the team of his contract.

 

Just like Brewer fans still do, Tiger fans think Justin Verlander has more surplus value than he does and will expect something valuable in return if the Tigers trade him or else they would rather just keep him for nostalgic purposes.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

I think it's unlikely because of the optics for Detroit. It certainly would make sense for the Brewers to add Verlander since they appear to be able to absorb his contract and not have to part with legitimate prospects. For the Brewers, it would almost be akin to signing him as a free agent.

 

But on the Detroit side of things, even if it makes business sense to just cut the payroll, how in the world do you survive the PR hit of dealing Justin Verlander for a bag of baseballs?

 

That's why it's so unlikely. You may have to structure a deal around Ray who is still a "ranked" prospect with 1st round status for Detroit to survive the PR hit.

 

This is spot on. It would be the equivalant of the Brewers giving Ryan Braun to the Tigers (or another contending team) for basically free last August, just to rid the team of his contract.

 

Just like Brewer fans still do, Tiger fans think Justin Verlander has more surplus value than he does and will expect something valuable in return if the Tigers trade him or else they would rather just keep him for nostalgic purposes.

 

Except the proposed Braun trade was for Puig, who the Dodgers and their fanbase had soured on, and McCarthy, who was basically a throw-in to wash salaries. I know it is speculated that it broke down due to the Brewers wanting prospects back, though, so who knows? Of course, the Brewers really don't have a high-salaried throw-in type player, so its tough to draw comparisons. Maybe Villar and Garza for Verlander? Villar may be dirt to Brewer fans, but I wouldn't doubt that he still has value around MLB.

[bill hAll Star]

I don't think Detroit is going to give any of their overpaid players away for free. They probably will just do nothing in free agency over the next few years so they'll probably just let these guys rot/expire, especially the ones with some current value (Verlander, Upton).

 

I may be gauging the new ownership wrong, but I think if this new ownership was worried about cutting costs over the next few years, they may be more aggressively giving guys away for free or even giving up assets to rid themselves of players.

 

Aside from the optics issue, I think it's mostly that they might as well hold on to Verlander, even Zimmermann, etc. until maybe there is a chance to give them up for something. Maybe it's 2 years from now and Zimmermann has found a new pitch and is an above average pitcher again...something like that.

 

They're under the luxury tax threshold next year and will probably just be quiet in free agency. Each year, they'll unload guys even if just for small returns as the contracts go down.

[MNBrew]

I like the Verlander idea a lot. I was thinking that if Detroit would cover some of Verlander's money, a return of Garza and either Philips/Coulter or Broxton/Trent Clark (preferably the latter).

 

For his salary, Garza's a pretty darn good deal next year. He has his lousy moments but he also has good ones. Many teams will pay 3 time Garza's $5M option and still get Garza's results.

 

We have to give up something of value to get something good, so the pair of players beyond Garza would have to have some cumulative positive appeal to them.

 

If there were some way to get a Kinsler in the deal for a not-too-costly return -- esp. taking on all of Kinsler's salary (of course assuming Kinsler would approve a trade to MIL since the Brewers are reportedly on his "no" list) -- I think I'd be for that, too.

[pacopete4]

Verlander shut down the Dodgers today. Let's go get him!

[LouisEly]

I think it's unlikely because of the optics for Detroit. It certainly would make sense for the Brewers to add Verlander since they appear to be able to absorb his contract and not have to part with legitimate prospects. For the Brewers, it would almost be akin to signing him as a free agent.

 

But on the Detroit side of things, even if it makes business sense to just cut the payroll, how in the world do you survive the PR hit of dealing Justin Verlander for a bag of baseballs?

 

That's why it's so unlikely. You may have to structure a deal around Ray who is still a "ranked" prospect with 1st round status for Detroit to survive the PR hit.

Agreed, which is why I think a deal where Detroit sends some cash to get some "name" prospects makes the most sense for both sides.

 

Detroit sends Verlander and cash (name your amount), to the Brewers and the Brewers send Corey Ray (I personally think Phillips, Clark, and Harrison are better prospects than Ray), Taylor Jungmann, and Gilbert Lara to Detroit. Then Detroit can sell it to their (casual) fans that they got last year's #5 overall pick, another former #1 pick, and another guy who was a top international free agent a couple of years ago. (Jungmann can be a PTBNL without being exposed to waivers as long as he doesn't get called up the rest of the season).

 

Brewers don't give up much, Detroit gets "names" back. Both sides win.

[brewmann04]

i think we forget that he can cancel any deal.but it continues to be curious that this continues to be talked about

[rickh150]

On August 31, 1982, Don Sutton was traded to the Brewers. He arguably was the difference in getting the Brewers to the playoffs and World Series. I see Verlander in that light if we are still close on Aug. 31. If the price and prospect cost is right, it still is possible.

[adambr2]

On August 31, 1982, Don Sutton was traded to the Brewers. He arguably was the difference in getting the Brewers to the playoffs and World Series. I see Verlander in that light if we are still close on Aug. 31. If the price and prospect cost is right, it still is possible.

 

I still have yet to hear any reasonable explanation from anyone as to why Justin Verlander and his supermodel wife Kate Upton, who just bought a $6M dollar house in Beverly Hills, are going to agree to not only waive his no-trade clause, but also forfeit his 10/5 rights to veto a trade in the future by doing so, to spend potentially the rest of his career in Milwaukee.

 

The other kicker is that even if he did, the language in the new CBA would allow him to seek an opt-out at the end of this year or 2018, potentially putting us in the position to be giving up top prospects for a 6 or 7 start rental.

[pacopete4]

On August 31, 1982, Don Sutton was traded to the Brewers. He arguably was the difference in getting the Brewers to the playoffs and World Series. I see Verlander in that light if we are still close on Aug. 31. If the price and prospect cost is right, it still is possible.

 

I still have yet to hear any reasonable explanation from anyone as to why Justin Verlander and his supermodel wife Kate Upton, who just bought a $6M dollar house in Beverly Hills, are going to agree to not only waive his no-trade clause, but also forfeit his 10/5 rights to veto a trade in the future by doing so, to spend potentially the rest of his career in Milwaukee.

 

The other kicker is that even if he did, the language in the new CBA would allow him to seek an opt-out at the end of this year or 2018, potentially putting us in the position to be giving up top prospects for a 6 or 7 start rental.

 

He would probably get another 5 starts in the postseason as we are winning the World Series so I'm not sure what the complaints are about.

[adambr2]

On August 31, 1982, Don Sutton was traded to the Brewers. He arguably was the difference in getting the Brewers to the playoffs and World Series. I see Verlander in that light if we are still close on Aug. 31. If the price and prospect cost is right, it still is possible.

 

I still have yet to hear any reasonable explanation from anyone as to why Justin Verlander and his supermodel wife Kate Upton, who just bought a $6M dollar house in Beverly Hills, are going to agree to not only waive his no-trade clause, but also forfeit his 10/5 rights to veto a trade in the future by doing so, to spend potentially the rest of his career in Milwaukee.

 

The other kicker is that even if he did, the language in the new CBA would allow him to seek an opt-out at the end of this year or 2018, potentially putting us in the position to be giving up top prospects for a 6 or 7 start rental.

 

He would probably get another 5 starts in the postseason as we are winning the World Series so I'm not sure what the complaints are about.

 

If we were that confident that a rented ace would have that big of an impact for us I'm sure we would have just traded for Darvish and at least gotten an extra month out of him.

[pacopete4]

Verlander > Darvish

[mlloyd10]

have 9 more days

[brewmann04]

looks like he might be going to the astros

[LouisEly]

Justin Verlander has a 2.33 ERA and .593 OPS-A post-All-Star break.

 

I think calls of him being washed up were a little premature.