Justin Verlander

[bill hAll Star]

This is what I'd be curious about and there may be an answer from Verlander or the medical staff. This is Verlander's slider velocity chart, which pretty much directly correlates to ERA/FIP/xFIP over that time.

 

The fastball has oddly been increasing over the past calendar year.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/fgraphs/8700_P_SL_20170708__pi.png

[bill hAll Star]

Going for 3 posts in a row here (all slightly different topics).

 

I do wonder what Tigers ownership wants now that Ilitch has passed away.

 

It's quite possible that the Tigers just let Verlander sit around unless somebody offers prospects plus takes on some or all of the contract. If they're looking to rebuild, they can pretty much just write off 2018 and 2019 so if nobody is offering prospects, if ownership is OK with a $140 million payroll next year, they can do it.

 

In 2020 all they'd have left is:

Miggy @ 3 years/$90 million

Upton @ 2 years/$45 million

Zimmermann @1 year/$25 million

 

Ilitch put them in a pretty big future hole but they might just want to wait on almost all of these guys since almost all of them do not hold any value and have huge contracts.

[reillymcshane]

Brewers supposedly showing interest in Verlander:

 

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2017/07/justin-verlander-trade-rumors-brewers-tigers.html

[Greenleaf1]

Time to resurrect this thread: https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2017/07/justin-verlander-trade-rumors-brewers-tigers.html

 

Looks like Astros and Brewers are interested in a Verlander/Justin Wilson package, which would be very interesting in my opinion. Adding Wilson might justify the Brewers including some real prospects in the deal, and the Brewers could fill 2 areas of need in one trade. Especially interesting package now that this article says the Tigers may be willing to include some money along with Verlander.

 

After that JD Martinez trade, if I were Stearns I'd be calling up Detroit immediately because that return looked pretty light and it may be an indicator that the Tigers might be prime for the fleecing.

[brewmann04]

Verlander days of a bone a fide stud are over pass

[DocLuna7]

I guess if we are only giving up money I would be interested

[OnaBadger58]

Verlander days of a bone a fide stud are over pass

While I agree, don't forget he was the runner up to the Cy Young last year.

[3and2Fastball]

I'm all for getting Verlander as long as we don't have to trade Brinson, Phillips, Dubon, Hader, Woodruff or Burnes for him

[NievesNoNO]

Verlander days of a bone a fide stud are over pass

 

True, but that's also the reason he could be available. If the Tigers were to take on 7-8 million per season and include Wilson in a deal I could see giving something of value to pull something together.

 

Verlander hasn't lost the velocity yet so that's encouraging at least. It's his control that's left him. There are a lot of obstacles to clear to make something happen with him but you never know.

 

It'd be an interesting acquisition provided (like any other deal) we don't overpay. I'm assuming the price has escalated on Gray and perhaps they've moved on.

[torts]

I bet he would veto a trade to us. Kate Upton doesn't do Milwaukee

 

Because Detroit is that much more Hollywood?

 

 

 

8 Mile vs. Mr. Baseball.

 

yes.

[reillymcshane]

Verlander - as an asset - is essentially underwater.

 

He's due another $10-12M or so for 2017. He's due $28M for 2018 and 2019. That's $68-70M.

 

I guess the question is, if Justin Verlander was a free agent right now, what annual salary would you give him on a contract that goes through 2019? $10M? $15M $20M?

 

It certainly wouldn't be $28M. I'm guessing someone would give him 1/2 that - so $14M or so. That's just a guess.

 

I realize the excellent 2016 is really enticing - but in reality, Verlander has been pretty mediocre (other than 2016).

 

His Fangraphs WAR the last few years goes as follows:

 

2014: 2.9

2015: 2.9

2016: 5.2

2017: 1.7 (thus far)

 

Baseball Reference has Verlander's WAR to at 1.1, 2.2, 6.6 and 1.1 - so quite a bit worse than Fangraphs.

 

Even if you overpay Verlander a bit - just on the outside chance he can regain his 2016 form - the Tigers would still have to include at least $25M or so (or equivalent assets). And we wouldn't be giving up anything of real value to make the deal.

 

The whole no-trade clause that Verlander has further muddies the situation.

 

I doubt the Crew really is that interested in him (but you never know). In reality, it's probably just playing the field. Stearns is asking about any starter - signaling to the A's (and other clubs) that we can look elsewhere if you ask too much.

[mattyo]

Verlander - as an asset - is essentially underwater.

 

He's due another $10-12M or so for 2017. He's due $28M for 2018 and 2019. That's $68-70M.

 

I guess the question is, if Justin Verlander was a free agent right now, what annual salary would you give him on a contract that goes through 2019? $10M? $15M $20M?

 

It certainly wouldn't be $28M. I'm guessing someone would give him 1/2 that - so $14M or so. That's just a guess.

 

I realize the excellent 2016 is really enticing - but in reality, Verlander has been pretty mediocre (other than 2016).

 

His Fangraphs WAR the last few years goes as follows:

 

2014: 2.9

2015: 2.9

2016: 5.2

2017: 1.7 (thus far)

 

Baseball Reference has Verlander's WAR to at 1.1, 2.2, 6.6 and 1.1 - so quite a bit worse than Fangraphs.

 

Even if you overpay Verlander a bit - just on the outside chance he can regain his 2016 form - the Tigers would still have to include at least $25M or so (or equivalent assets). And we wouldn't be giving up anything of real value to make the deal.

 

The whole no-trade clause that Verlander has further muddies the situation.

 

I doubt the Crew really is that interested in him (but you never know). In reality, it's probably just playing the field. Stearns is asking about any starter - signaling to the A's (and other clubs) that we can look elsewhere if you ask too much.

 

Agreed with all of this. But with how small our payroll is, why not try to package Verlander with a reliever like Wilson, agree to take on a lot of Verlander's salary, and thus lessen the quality of prospects needed to get the deal done. That way we add a potentially great SP, a very good reliever, and keep our farm system intact.

[trwi7]

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2017/07/justin-verlander-trade-rumors-brewers-tigers.html#comments

 

Recommend reading the comments if you want to laugh.

[Warning Track Power]

Agreed with all of this. But with how small our payroll is, why not try to package Verlander with a reliever like Wilson, agree to take on a lot of Verlander's salary, and thus lessen the quality of prospects needed to get the deal done. That way we add a potentially great SP, a very good reliever, and keep our farm system intact.

This. For 2017, if the Brewers are to acquire a possible TOR arm, I would much rather take on salary and keep top prospects that it would take to acquire a Gray. Taking on a substantial amount of Verlander's salary should not preclude the Brewers from making other moves if need be given most of the Brewers position players are pre-arbitration or have cost control.

 

Verlander and taking on salary or Gray and giving up to prospects...I'll take Verlander.

[DocLuna7]

Agreed with all of this. But with how small our payroll is, why not try to package Verlander with a reliever like Wilson, agree to take on a lot of Verlander's salary, and thus lessen the quality of prospects needed to get the deal done. That way we add a potentially great SP, a very good reliever, and keep our farm system intact.

This. For 2017, if the Brewers are to acquire a possible TOR arm, I would much rather take on salary and keep top prospects that it would take to acquire a Gray. Taking on a substantial amount of Verlander's salary should not preclude the Brewers from making other moves if need be given most of the Brewers position players are pre-arbitration or have cost control.

 

Verlander and taking on salary or Gray and giving up to prospects...I'll take Verlander.

 

This is exactly what I was trying to say earlier. You guys just said it better.

[patrickgpe]

i just reviewed his game log, he has had 3 bad outings so far this season, which has really inflated his stats. i think if the Tigers are simply looking to unload salary and do not expect top prospects back this would be the way to go rather than unload the farm to get a Gray.

[pogokat]

Verlander gives the Brewers a shot to get interesting with the players they trade to detroit. he should cost zero top prospects---like nothing close. He's Detroit's Braun. I think something like Verlander and all his contract should net Detroit something like Keon Broxton and Lara.

 

If they want real prospects, they are gonna have to chip in a bunch of money. If they include Wilson, they probably net 1 top ten guy. not in the BA top 100, 1 top ten organizational guy from whoever gets him if he's bundled with Verlander.

 

I could maybe see someone like Villar moved for both of them.

 

I like the Verlander idea a bunch, much more than Gray. I'd rather spend Mark's money than trade the prospects.

[rickh150]

Could they include Kinsler, as well?

[reillymcshane]

Verlander - as an asset - is essentially underwater.

 

He's due another $10-12M or so for 2017. He's due $28M for 2018 and 2019. That's $68-70M.

 

I guess the question is, if Justin Verlander was a free agent right now, what annual salary would you give him on a contract that goes through 2019? $10M? $15M $20M?

 

It certainly wouldn't be $28M. I'm guessing someone would give him 1/2 that - so $14M or so. That's just a guess.

 

I realize the excellent 2016 is really enticing - but in reality, Verlander has been pretty mediocre (other than 2016).

 

His Fangraphs WAR the last few years goes as follows:

 

2014: 2.9

2015: 2.9

2016: 5.2

2017: 1.7 (thus far)

 

Baseball Reference has Verlander's WAR to at 1.1, 2.2, 6.6 and 1.1 - so quite a bit worse than Fangraphs.

 

Even if you overpay Verlander a bit - just on the outside chance he can regain his 2016 form - the Tigers would still have to include at least $25M or so (or equivalent assets). And we wouldn't be giving up anything of real value to make the deal.

 

The whole no-trade clause that Verlander has further muddies the situation.

 

I doubt the Crew really is that interested in him (but you never know). In reality, it's probably just playing the field. Stearns is asking about any starter - signaling to the A's (and other clubs) that we can look elsewhere if you ask too much.

 

Agreed with all of this. But with how small our payroll is, why not try to package Verlander with a reliever like Wilson, agree to take on a lot of Verlander's salary, and thus lessen the quality of prospects needed to get the deal done. That way we add a potentially great SP, a very good reliever, and keep our farm system intact.

You are exactly correct. As I noted, the Tigers would have to send back money - or equivalent assets. That means players of value.

 

One that that the Brewers have is financial flexibility. It's a valuable thing to have. It's like any asset - prospects, players, whatever - it allows to to take on salary when we see fit. Many teams can't take on $10M or $20M or whatever in salary. That we can gives us more bargaining power.

 

I'm not saying we go out and get Verlander. I haven't really seen the guy pitch for a while. That's for the teams scouts to do. But it's something to consider.

[mlloyd10]

JV/Wilson/Kinsler for gate wood/Reed/some low A guy

 

We take on all salary

[rickh150]

JV/Wilson/Kinsler for gate wood/Reed/some low A guy

 

We take on all salary

 

Wouldn't that be 80 million plus? Uh, I can't see us doing that. Maybe if they include 25 million...

[owbc]

Verlander and his salary is worth a bag of baseballs. We would be doing the Tigers a tremendous favor. We also might be the only team in baseball willing to do this and it might be their only chance to get his salary off the books.

 

I think players and salary will be involved since it would look bad for the Tigers to send him over for nothing.

 

I'm all green light if Mark A wants to spend the cash. Get it done and get Verlander in there against the Nationals next week.

[HighHeat19]

Remember, Verlander has to approve but I can't see Verlander wanting to be on a team that's now on a decline. Not only that, who wants to live in Detroit. And the NL is easier to pitch than the AL.

[KeithStone53151]

Verlander and his salary is worth a bag of baseballs. We would be doing the Tigers a tremendous favor. We also might be the only team in baseball willing to do this and it might be their only chance to get his salary off the books.

 

I think players and salary will be involved since it would look bad for the Tigers to send him over for nothing.

 

I'm all green light if Mark A wants to spend the cash. Get it done and get Verlander in there against the Nationals next week.

 

I tend to agree with most on the thread. We get verlander and take on most salary, they get something like Clark plus jungmann plus Zack Brown. Clark and jungmann can be touted as 1st round picks to their casual fans. Most of our other talent should be cheap enough to keep some payroll flexibility even with most of his contract added on through 2019 when he drops off and 2020 when Brauns drops off. The tigers already signaled they were dropping out of contention for at least this year when they punted Martinez for salary relief and little more.

[Boomer5]

Could they include Kinsler, as well?

 

Or we could have just kept Scooter and his 900 plus OPS.