BWAR vs FWAR

[adambr2]

Which do you prefer and hold as more accurate, and why?

[MrTPlush]

I don't really have much of a preference because using it you are looking at a very broad picture. I don't like Baseball Reference when it comes to defense. Sometimes it gives some real head scratching values while Fangraphs seems to be more consistent.

 

However here I usually refer to Baseball Reference as that is what seems to be popular among other posters. Usually there isn't a big difference between the two and it isn't necessary to be incredibly accurate.

[Humans Need Water]

A good friend of mine used to contribute to FanGraphs and is still close with Cameron and others. I asked him his thoughts on WAR since people tend to use it A LOT instead of digging into the nitty gritty details (i.e. lot of other metrics combined that tell a much better story) while watching players on tv or live.

 

He said he loved WAR when it first came out. But between now and then there have been so many advancements within analaytics that he doesn't pay much attention to it anymore. He'll still look it at but it doesn't carry anywhere near the weight it used to, in his mind. His most interesting comment was "anyone who solely uses WAR is both lazy and stupid".

 

He also said analytics can only take you so far, which I absolutely agree with. If people don't understand what they're watching (the complexity of the game within the game - understanding all aspects of hitting, pitching, defense, strategy, etc and how small details within each of these spaces can have a huge impact) then you're going to see those people rely heavily on analytics to tell them what to think instead of merely using it as one tool to help paint a complete picture.

 

It's why the overwhelming majority think Nottingham is a bust after last year...why they thought Santana wasn't going to be what he is (and he will absolutely get better from what he is today)...why they thought Shaw was a platoon or average player at best...why they think Braun has always been a below average OF when over the past 10yrs they've watched him play an absurd amount of games where he rarely takes a bad angle, has solid speed with a strong and accurate arm. But people believe analytics over all else because they don't know what they're looking at and we now live in a society that prefers not to put in the time/effort to learn about the game because it's easier going to a website and seeing one metric then believing it.