Rule 5 Eligible Players

[Greenleaf1]

On Matt Pauley's podcast he keeps bringing up that the Brewers should consider dealing some minor league depth that we won't have room for on the 40-man this winter and maybe get some bullpen help or something small at the trade deadline that way.

 

Some teams might just rather wait and see if they can draft a player they like in our system this winter instead of giving something up for them, but then they risk either us protecting the player or some other team taking them. We do have some guys who could be called up to the majors right now to help competing teams this year, or maybe other teams would be willing to accept prospects worth protecting on THEIR 40-mans even though we don't have room on ours? Or maybe we do the Manny Pina thing and make deals with players to be named later where the later is after the rule 5 draft to make sure they aren't picked.

 

Here's a list of Rule 5 eligible players from the last draft: https://www.brewcrewball.com/2016/11/14/13621106/milwaukee-brewers-rule-5-draft-eligible-players

 

Does anyone know of a good way to make a list that will include players that are newly eligible this year?

 

Just from last year, I don't see us holding onto Wei-Chung Wang or Garrett Cooper, potentially Kyle Wren too.

 

Based on a quick look at drafts and trades, here's the guys of note becoming eligible this year:

- Devin Williams

- Mauricio Dubon

- Marcos Diplan (I think)

- Jacob Nottingham

- Freddy Peralta

 

The list gets considerably longer the year after that.

 

Devin Williams is not under any risk of being taken or added to the 40-man, but it'll be tough to figure out exactly what to do with those other guys.

 

I know it's early in the year to talk about protecting guys on the 40-man, but it could end up dictating what prospects we make available at the trade deadline so it's probably worth discussing now. Would you be more likely to consider dealing someone like Freddy Peralta for something now knowing that he might eat up a spot on the 40-man for at least a year without contributing to the major league roster?

 

Also of note, there are probably about 5 or 6 spots on the 40-man right now where it would be easy to trim some fat and make room for some of these guys too.

[And That]

Here's the list of players eligible for the Rule 5 draft for this first time after this season:

Jacob Nottingham

Dustin DeMuth

Mauricio Dubon

Aaron Wilkerson

Freddy Peralta

Brandon Diaz

Tucker Neuhaus

Joantgel Segovia

Nattino Diplan

Franly Mallen

Yeraldy Martinez

Julio Mendez

Nic Pierre

Nelson Hernandez

Juan Diaz

Carlos Luna

Daniel Missaki

Devin Williams

Joaquin De La Cruz

 

Also eligible:

Tyler Heineman

Garrett Cooper

Nate Orf

Kyle Wren

Tristan Archer

Wei-Chung Wang

Yhonathan Barrios

Angel Ortega

Clint Coulter

Javier Betancourt

Wendell Rijo

Johnny Davis

Matt Ramsey

Josh Uhen

Tyler Spurlin

Preston Gainey

Carlos Belonis

Victor Diaz

Rodrigo Benoit

Tyrone Taylor

Milton Gomez

Yosmer Leal

[brewmann04]

wow DS will have a busy time with that list

[Humans Need Water]

As of present day the Brewers should find spots for Dubon, Nottingham, Peralta, Wang, Cooper. I like Wilkerson and Ramsey as well but not sure how it plays out with them.

 

Coulter I could care less about. Don't care if he's protected, unprotected or traded. He'll never take a spot ahead of Braun, Broxton, Santana, Brinson, Phillips, Cordell and maybe not even Reed (mainly due to his high on-base skills and versatility playing all 3 OF spots well). I think it's best to trade him as eventually Ray will be on his heels too.

[Outlander]

Not listed because he will be a free agent is Angel Ventura, another guy though that they will consider adding or potentially include in trade.

[JohnBriggs12]

Wang will likely be on major league roster in the next month. Cooper figures to be a September call up as his bat will be useful as PH option. Some guys will be removed off the,40 man. So predicting now who will be exposed is pure guesswork.

[patrickgpe]

its the joys of having a really good minor league system. not a bad problem to have. there is some fat on the 40 now that could easily be gotten rid of and easily 5 players that need to be protected,

[MrTPlush]

It really isn't that bad. It looks long, but there really aren't that many players teams would actually take on a rule 5 draft. If you aren't at least at AA you probably won't be taken. If not at AA you better be really intriguing for some reason. I guess the only concern would be the amount of pitchers that are in the higher minors that will be eligible. The Brewers aren't going to stick a bunch of them in the bullpen and they won't want to let a bunch of future bullpen guys burn up the 40 man if they don't have to. Garrett Cooper could be another interesting situation. I just don't see a spot in Milwaukee opening up unless a major injury happens.

 

If we stay in contention I would expect some of this upper level borderline 40 man guys to be traded where a team can afford to have them burn up a 40 man spot. Outside of that some could get selected in the Rule 5 draft. Especially if a Cooper/Wilkerson/Archer is left unprotected.

 

This will be an important job for David Stearns and Co. He already failed the first time preparing for the Rule 5 draft according to many when he left Diaz unprotected. It will be interesting how things go when he deals with way more legit prospects available for the draft.

[adambr2]

It really isn't that bad. It looks long, but there really aren't that many players teams would actually take on a rule 5 draft. If you aren't at least at AA you probably won't be taken. If not at AA you better be really intriguing for some reason. I guess the only concern would be the amount of pitchers that are in the higher minors that will be eligible. The Brewers aren't going to stick a bunch of them in the bullpen and they won't want to let a bunch of future bullpen guys burn up the 40 man if they don't have to. Garrett Cooper could be another interesting situation. I just don't see a spot in Milwaukee opening up unless a major injury happens.

 

If we stay in contention I would expect some of this upper level borderline 40 man guys to be traded where a team can afford to have them burn up a 40 man spot. Outside of that some could get selected in the Rule 5 draft. Especially if a Cooper/Wilkerson/Archer is left unprotected.

 

This will be an important job for David Stearns and Co. He already failed the first time preparing for the Rule 5 draft according to many when he left Diaz unprotected. It will be interesting how things go when he deals with way more legit prospects available for the draft.

 

Yeah at first glance I got a little scared looking at that list, but going through it again it's really not that bad. Dubon is a no brainer and Peralta should probably be added too.

 

Nottinghamm and Wilkerson are probably iffy depending on the rest of the year goes, and they might consider adding Cooper after this year. After those 5 there's no one I'm overly concerned with risking .

[mrn1ceguy]

My thoughts on the list:

 

Protect:

Jacob Nottingham

Mauricio Dubon

Aaron Wilkerson

Freddy Peralta

Nattino Diplan (wrong Diplan)

Garrett Cooper (Trade Jesus Aguilar in off-season [medium return], Cooper get's his spot)

Javier Betancourt (Trade Yadiel Rivera in off-season [low return], Betancourt get's his spot)

 

 

 

At Risk of Losing:

Daniel Missaki

Devin Williams

Kyle Wren

Clint Coulter

Wendell Rijo

Tyrone Taylor

 

 

Possible Bullpen options worth protecting:

Tristan Archer

Wei-Chung Wang

Yhonathan Barrios

Matt Ramsey

 

 

In addition, there are other minor league FA we may want to protect (Angel Ventura, Nick Ramirez?). Also, some people on the 40 are going to be option-less and we may look to move if we don't think they will make the team (Susak, Yadiel Rivera).

[Humans Need Water]

My thoughts on the list:

 

Protect:

Jacob Nottingham

Mauricio Dubon

Aaron Wilkerson

Freddy Peralta

Nattino Diplan (wrong Diplan)

Garrett Cooper (Trade Jesus Aguilar in off-season [medium return], Cooper get's his spot)

Javier Betancourt (Trade Yadiel Rivera in off-season [low return], Betancourt get's his spot)

If Stearns believes that much in Cooper's bat I can see him trading Aguilar. An AL should be interested given the DH spot. He's showing this year he can hit MLB pitching and be a contributor. That said, that's a big picture decision that affects both short and long-term given the age/contract/control/how the MLB team is constructed moving forward/etc when it comes to Thames, Aguilar, Cooper. I think the best option is keeping all 3 at least through some point next year. If an injury happens to Thames or Aguilar then you have a good option ready to fill in with Cooper. I don't think that's a wasted spot on the 40 either if that happens.

[ClosetBrewerFan]

While the list may seem long, I could easily see 10 players who could be let go at the end of the year to make room for prospects: Cravy, Drake, Espino, Franklin, Garza, Houser, Hughes, Jungman, W.Peralta, and M. Reed.

 

I see us protecting the following:

 

Sure thing: Dubon, F. Peralta, Nottingham (defense has improved)

 

Possible: Archer, Wang, Cooper, A. Ventura, N. Ramirez (the last two to avoid FA)

 

Its still early yet, so some players may improve and show the need for us to protect them. However, It seems reasonable that we can protect whatever prospects we need.

[NYChez]

My thoughts on the list:

 

At Risk of Losing:

Daniel Missaki

Devin Williams

Kyle Wren

Clint Coulter

Wendell Rijo

Tyrone Taylor

 

.

 

Several guys on that list I can't see a team committing to put on their 25-man roster for the entire 2018 season.

[CheezWizHed]

My thoughts on the list:

 

At Risk of Losing:

Daniel Missaki

Devin Williams

Kyle Wren

Clint Coulter

Wendell Rijo

Tyrone Taylor

 

.

 

Several guys on that list I can't see a team committing to put on their 25-man roster for the entire 2018 season.

 

Kyle Wren might be the closest due to defense capabilities, but it would be a small loss.

Devin Williams has the most potential and could be grabbed.

Missaki might be something, but too far from the MLB to be worth trying.

[Greenleaf1]

After another season of production, it seems like Kyle Wren would be taken if we don't protect him. I thought he'd be gone this year though so who knows.

 

Williams/Missaki are still injured and I'm not even sure Williams will be ready to start the year next year so I don't think either of those guys is much risk to be lost.

 

Rijo/Taylor I'm pretty indifferent to, I can't imagine anyone would think either is worth a 25-man spot. Coulter maybe, but even if someone does take him I don't think it would be a huge loss at this point.

 

Nottingham has shown real progress this season after a rough start, and might be working his way back into actual prospect status (I feel like I've heard he's getting better on defense too), so I'd definitely protect him. Peralta/Dubon are musts too.

 

Diplan is obviously a top 10 prospect on some lists in the Brewers system but has struggled mightily now in almost a full season at High-A. I still feel like he'd be taken if he wasn't protected though, but if we put him on the 40-man and then have to take him off then he's open to waivers and wouldn't even have to stay on someone's 25-man for a full year in order to be lost, so that's going to be a tricky one. He's likely to drop considerably in prospect rankings by the end of the season too I'd think.

 

At this point, without really thinking about the rest of the 40-man but just in terms of these players, I'd protect Dubon, Peralta, Nottingham, Wilkerson, Cooper, Diplan, Wren, and Wang.

 

Some of these will likely be moot because they'll be up by the end of the year (most likely Wang, but Dubon/Wilkerson/Cooper/Wren could all get shots this year depending on injuries or how crazy we want to get in September).

 

This is kinda just what we're going to have to deal with given our deep system though. The Yankees lost 8 players (!) in the Rule 5 draft last year, that could very well happen to us one of these years.

[FVBrewerFan]

Other than Nottingham, I don't see a team keeping any position player for the whole season. And even he would be tough. With bullpens growing, there's less spots for the bench. Even Wren and Cooper wouldn't be likely to stick.

 

So it's not bad at all, really. There's a few pitchers they need to protect but looks like it should be manageable.

[mrn1ceguy]

After another season of production, it seems like Kyle Wren would be taken if we don't protect him. I thought he'd be gone this year though so who knows.

 

Williams/Missaki are still injured and I'm not even sure Williams will be ready to start the year next year so I don't think either of those guys is much risk to be lost.

 

Rijo/Taylor I'm pretty indifferent to, I can't imagine anyone would think either is worth a 25-man spot. Coulter maybe, but even if someone does take him I don't think it would be a huge loss at this point.

 

Nottingham has shown real progress this season after a rough start, and might be working his way back into actual prospect status (I feel like I've heard he's getting better on defense too), so I'd definitely protect him. Peralta/Dubon are musts too.

 

Diplan is obviously a top 10 prospect on some lists in the Brewers system but has struggled mightily now in almost a full season at High-A. I still feel like he'd be taken if he wasn't protected though, but if we put him on the 40-man and then have to take him off then he's open to waivers and wouldn't even have to stay on someone's 25-man for a full year in order to be lost, so that's going to be a tricky one. He's likely to drop considerably in prospect rankings by the end of the season too I'd think.

 

At this point, without really thinking about the rest of the 40-man but just in terms of these players, I'd protect Dubon, Peralta, Nottingham, Wilkerson, Cooper, Diplan, Wren, and Wang.

 

Some of these will likely be moot because they'll be up by the end of the year (most likely Wang, but Dubon/Wilkerson/Cooper/Wren could all get shots this year depending on injuries or how crazy we want to get in September).

 

This is kinda just what we're going to have to deal with given our deep system though. The Yankees lost 8 players (!) in the Rule 5 draft last year, that could very well happen to us one of these years.

 

Wrong Diplan. I made the same mistake earlier.

 

The diplan listed above is Nattino Diplan (http://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=diplan000nat)

 

The diplan who is a top 10 prospect is Marcos Diplan (http://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=diplan000mar)

 

I think we have one more year for Marcos Diplan until he needs to be on the 40.

[Greenleaf1]

 

Wrong Diplan. I made the same mistake earlier.

 

I was going based on my original post, where I looked up the players personally, so this would be my mistake, but here's the mistake I made. Diplan signed with the Rangers in July 2013, so I had assumed he started pitching in 2013, which would make 2017 his 5th pro year. He actually didn't start pitching in the DSL until 2014, so you're correct, he will not have to be protected until the end of next year which is good because at this point that'd be a tough decision.

 

While you're right that Nattino Diplan is eligible after this year, I didn't mistake him for Marcos because I never even thought to care about Nattino Diplan.

 

So I'll scratch Diplan off my list of must-protect, and replace him with Nick Ramirez who I forgot about completely and based on the last Rule 5, lefty relievers in the upper minors are in high demand.

[Crash2303]

i'm with most of you that at a minimum there are 4 musts (Nottingham, Dubon, Peralta, Cooper) and 4-6 others who would be great to protect. I think we should be fine, and am not too worried that we'll lose anyone with projectable major league value. There will be quite a few spots opening up on the 40 man that should allow us to keep anyone we want to keep. the major variable of course is what we will do with trades both this season and in the offseason. with that said- here's a look at the potential open 40 man spots that will factor into the amount of guys we can protect.

 

GUYS I DON'T SEE BACK WITH CLUB IN 2018 - (these open six spots)

* Stephen Vogt- great pickup for this season and can hopefully continue to help us down the stretch. but with ample and younger catcher depth- it doesn't make sense to bring him back in 2018.

* Carlos Torres- if he's still on the club next year, a strong sign that the bullpen is in bad shape

* Eric Sogard- as a FA after the year, it's possible we re-sign him, but i think either he'll be traded this season or we fill his slot in house next year.

* Jared Hughes- FA after the year, and even though he's turned his season around well, i think we have plentiful in house options for back end relievers.

* Rob Scahill- although cost-controlled, he'll be 31 next year, and really wish he wasn't even pitching for us this year. we can do better than that.

* Wily Peralta- entering year 2 arbitration, he's due for a raise and will most assuredly cost over 5 mil next year. after this putrid season (no other softer word for it), hard to fathom that he would not be non-tendered, in spite of his alluring tools and our low payroll.

* Matt Garza- please. i still really hope we can unload him this season, even if he's pitching well, and then fill his spot in house. but, there is no way he's on this team next year...right? right?

 

 

DEPENDING ON HOW THINGS GO & HOW MANY GUYS WE NEED TO PROTECT FROM THE RULE V- MIGHT BE WISE TO RISK LOSING (probably 4 spots, depending)

* Blazek/Jungmann/Drake/Espino- pretty much all in the same boat. possible that none of them are on the 40 man next season, though also plausible that all of them stay with the club. so i'll split the difference and put the over/under on 2 of them keep a spot.

* Houser/Lopez- lots of potential. I think they could successfully risk putting Houser on waivers at some point before the rule v draft- not sure who would risk a 25 man spot for him, as i believe he would be eligible for the draft if removed. though i'm guessing Lopez would be grabbed up despite his unstalworthy numbers the last year and half- and i dont think we'd want to risk losing him. though next year is his make/break year for sure.

* Guerra/Pina- although both are cost-controlled through 2021- next season they'll also be 33 & 31 respectively. since we are hoping to continue being a play-off contender and they are key pieces, it could make sense to keep them, at least for one more season. However, with Susac/Bandy in AAA and Nottingham hopefully ready in 2019 and a load of potential starting pitchers coming up in the next two years we have in house replacements that not only could suredly replace their production, but also have higher ceilings. on the order of trading too soon or too late, i'd rather err on too soon for these guys. If they both finish the year strong- i think they would both be attractive trade candidates.

* Yadiel Rivera- not to be too insulting- but defensive only middle infielders are a dime a dozen. and with Dubon likely protected after the season, he's a nice but unnecessary redundancy.

[nate82]

I think Garza stays but will be traded that option year is actually looking really good right now. He would be a very cheap #5 or #4 option for any team really.

[Outlander]

Also, Hughes isn't a free agent, he is arbitration eligible and the way he has been pitching could stick around. Certainly would keep him over Espino.

[LouisEly]

There has been talk recently with the trade of Cordell that there will be a roster crunch for the Rule 5 draft and that the Brewers would have lost Cordell anyway. I'm not sure of that.

 

I only see three "must-adds", two "probably", and a "depending on injury rehab".

 

Must add: Dubon, Wilkerson, Peralta

Probably: Nottingham, N. Ramirez

Depending on injury rehab: Barrios

If room: Wang, Ventura, Wren

 

Before you jump down my throat on Nottingham, he is a good prospect but I think it would be very difficult for a team to keep him as a catcher for an entire season. If he were an OF, yes, because it would be easier to keep him as a 4th/5th OF. After a big June he's really struggled in July, and will struggle both offensively and defensively in the majors.

 

Barring any trade additions, I can see the Brewers adding one of Wang or Nick Ramirez as an additional LHRP when the rosters expand in September, as they have an open spot now. And yes, Nick Ramirez needs to be added to the list. He was a little wild in April/May, as expected, but in June and July has combined for 33.1 IP, 24 H, 2 ER, 2 HR, 4 BB, 24 K, and has averaged well over 2 IP per appearance - he isn't a LOOGY, and has faced more than twice as many RHB as LHB.

 

Regardless, there are probably only five to six adds. As for drops, you have Espino, Rivera, Sogard, and an open spot, so there's four. W. Peralta will likely be gone one way or another, Torres they could let walk, Swarzak is a FA, and Garza is a good trade candidate (as is one of Bandy/Susac/Vogt). Not sure of option statuses, but some others could be out of options.

 

I don't see a roster crunch after this season.

 

And speaking of options, I noticed that the Player Index no longer has options remaining. Is there another place to find that info?

[djoctagone]

And speaking of options, I noticed that the Player Index no longer has options remaining. Is there another place to find that info?

of the current 40-man, these are the players that will enter 2018 spring training with no minor league options remaining:

 

jesus aguilar

jett bandy

michael blazek (assuming he's not recalled very soon to replace an injured player)

keon broxton (assuming he spends more than 20 days optioned in 2017)

oliver drake

jared hughes

taylor jungmann

wily peralta

hernan perez

manny pina

yadiel rivera

anthony swarzak (will be eligible for free agency)

eric thames (by nature of his contract)

carlos torres

jonathan villar

stephen vogt

[mrn1ceguy]

I agree there is no roster crunch for the rule 5 as even the top 7 or 8 (Coulter?) could easily be added especially when you bring up some likely trade candidates (broxton, garza, catchers). Looking at it, the only real roster crunch is at catcher because I see no way they will have 5 catchers on the 40 but they have five players worthy or protection (pina, Vogt, bandy, susak, Nottingham). I fully expect two of them to be traded regardless of if they roll the dice with not protecting Nottingham for no reason other than useable roster management.

[Outlander]

Nottingham is still a guy that will be protected, they could trade him or another catcher(s) as well but he for sure would be picked.