High school player update thread

[colbyjack]

High school information & updated statistics are hard to come by. Plus, it's really hard to determine whether or not HS stats have any value.

 

BA has started their player of the year watch, with RHP Homer Bailey getting the first nod.

 

www.baseballamerica.com/t...04poy.html

 

I know there are several people that consider Bailey to be the best prep pitching prospect, even ahead of Nick Adenhart. While no one has Adenhart's polish, Bailey has great stuff, and I've heard a couple of people use his name when talking about a great line of pitchers that originated from Texas: Clemens, Pettite, Wood & Beckett.

 

I'm not sure I would touch any high school player with our first round pick, but with a few of the college players struggling, I could easily see guys like Bailey jumping up in the top 5-10 picks. He might have been there all along.

[colbyjack]

With Jered Weaver & several other college prospects getting all of the love, it was nice of BA to drop in & tell us about Nick Adenhart's first start of the season:

 

www.baseballamerica.com/t...nhart.html

 

On the same day that the top college prospect in the 2004 draft?Jered Weaver of Long Beach State?set a career high with 16 strikeouts in six innings opposite Wichita State, the No. 1 high school prospect was dealing a gem of his own.

 

Righthander Nick Adenhart spun a seven-inning perfect game in his 2004 debut as Williamsport (Md.) High defeated Allegany High of Cumberland, Md., 9-0. Adenhart (1-0), the top high school prospect in the upcoming draft, racked up 15 strikeouts on 83 pitches, 60 of which were strikes.

 

Adenhart, 6-foot-3, 185 pounds, has a picture-perfect delivery and plus command of a low-90s fastball and a two-plane curveball.

 

The win was especially sweet for Adenhart, who suffered his lone loss in 2003 as a junior to Allegany High, despite a no-hit effort in that game.

 

What a way to start the season. While I'm wary of taking a prep arm with the 5th overall pick, I have said before that I may just make an exception for Adenhart. I could really see this guy making a rapid climb similar to another polished prep prospect drafted a couple of years ago, Zack Greinke.

[Anders34]

Yeah, it sure is tempting, isn't it. The Brewers just can't afford to be wrong with the 5th pick in the draft. I would not put it past Jack Z, however. I think part of it depends on how Hendrickson, Capuano, and De La Rosa start out the year. If these guys are pitching great in AAA and/or the majors, it may make it a little easier to pick the high school kid. If they are struggling, i figure they will go with the college pitcher.

[RyDogg66]

I don't know. If the Brewers really want to help that prospect class they'll grab a college pitcher who can be effective at AA by the end of the season and might be able to be in the rotation by the start of '06. A high school pitcher is just too risky and would take too long to develop. I am for grabbing a HS pitcher in the 2nd or 3rd round.

 

By the way, I'd love to see our first 3 picks be pitchers, at least 2 college.

[pogokat]

I think our best hope is that someone else takes Adenhart ahead of us, leaving another of the big college arms for us to choose from

 

In my dream world, someone would take adenhart and someone drew, and we'd have a ton of choice over who to take!

[xisxisxis]

What a way to start the season. While I'm wary of taking a prep arm with the 5th overall pick, I have said before that I may just make an exception for Adenhart. I could really see this guy making a rapid climb similar to another polished prep prospect drafted a couple of years ago, Zack Greinke.

 

I couldn't understand all the love that was flowing toward Chris Grueler that year because I thought Greinke was the real deal. I'd be all for taking Adenhart also, but unfortunately, I'm almost as big of a jinx as you are when it comes to the Brewers picking prospects. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif I highly doubt the Brewers would pick Adenhart because I get the feeling they are targeting a college pitcher no matter who is available at #5.

[nikip43]

Scott Elbert from Seneca, Missouri made his debut yesterday and pitched a great game.

 

9 IP, 17 Ks, 2 H, 1 BB on 103 pitches against a solid small conference team.

 

Im excited about Elbert because he lives in a neighboring town and it will be interesting to see what happens to him. Hes one of BA's top 20 HS prospects as a lefty with one of the best sliders in the country.

 

His fastball topped out at 94 miles per hour and he was still throwing in the 90s in the seventh inning.

 

?Last year I threw more of a curveball, but over the summer, I was taught a little movement on my fastball and it?s a slider now,? Elbert said. ?I can throw it for a strike almost any time I want.

 

?I mix it up (with the curveball) sometimes. The curveball is more of a 12-6, the slider is more flat and slides across the plate. I start it down the middle and it breaks to (a right-hander?s) back leg.?

 

Said Seneca coach Mike Yust, ?He got stronger as the game went on. It takes him sometimes an inning or two to really get loose.?

 

link

[colbyjack]

Thanks for the update on Elbert nikip. If you get a chance you should take the chance to go see him pitch, as Elbert is one of the top pitchers available for this June's draft. At this point in time he probably won't be around for our 2nd round pick.

 

I believe he's from the other side of the state (Sikeston, about as far SE as you can get in the state), but Missouri's Blake DeWitt is one of my favorite prospects. Not sure if you get news on kids from that part of Missouri, but if you do, any information would be greatly appreciated.

 

BA posted their HS player of the year update today:

 

www.baseballamerica.com/t...04poy.html

 

While you can pretty much throw HS stats out the window, I do like to look for dominance. Right now no one is dominating more than RHP Homer Bailey:

 

0.00 ERA, 27 IP, 5 H, 67 K, 1 BB

 

Chris Nelson is also rising back up the charts with his offensive performance so far this spring despite having TJ surgery last fall. He'll be moving up on the HS list in my next top 10 update (which will probably happen on Monday or Tuesday of next week).

[BW23]

Elbert threw a complete game alright. But it was in 7 innings not 9. Of course, that makes the 17 Ks look even better. He was also 2-2 at the plate with a HR.

 

DeWitt has gotten off to a slow start offensively with just 3 hits in his first 3 games. He's definitely getting pitched around, but the catcher, Jacob Priday, is making teams pay. He's 11 of 13 already with 2 HRs, over 9 RBIs and is turning scouts' heads.

[BrewCrewin2005]

I agree with the statement about how delarosa and others are doing this year. If Sheets and Davis continue to show they are major league pitchers, and one other person such as capuano or obermueller have a breakthrough year, and the prospects are doing good there would be no reason to have to draft a college pitcher. If Adenhart has a higher ceiling, i say draft him

[hardballersdad]

Found this for an update on Billy Butler. Thought is was interesting since I have seen this kid play. He is possibly the most dangerous pitcher I have seen at the plate.

http://jacksonville.com/tu-online/stories/033004/hig_15216385.shtml

[colbyjack]

Nice account on Adenhart's 3rd start of the season:

 

www.herald-mail.com/?modu...ormat=html

 

He went 6 innings, allowing only 4 hits (all singles), and 1 unearned run while striking out 16.

[colbyjack]

BA has released their midseason HS prospect report (subscribers only):

 

www.baseballamerica.com/o...hsmid.html

 

And updated top 50 list (again, for subscribers):

 

www.baseballamerica.com/o...p50hs.html

 

I'm not going to share the whole list, but I can tell you that Homer Bailey has jumped over Matt Bush & Nick Adenhart to claim the #1 spot. The story that goes only with the top 50 list talks about how most scouting directors seem to be split on who is #1 between Adenhart & Bailey. Bailey has the edge in stuff, as his fastball & curveball are a hair better than Adenhart's, but as we've been talking about all spring, Adenhart is much more polished, changes his speeds well & hits his spots. He also has a better changeup at this point in time.

 

I don't agree with all of their rankings, but that's why I do my own top prospect lists http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif . They also note that none of the positional prospects are separating themselves from one another, except Matt Bush, who continues to perform well. They have Chuck Lofgren slipping, but similar to Ian Stewart last year, I don't see Lofgren lasting past the first round. He may not be having a big spring, yet, but his bat & overall athleticism are just too good to pass up. I still I think he's the best bet to be an impact hitter as a pro. Of course, he could still be drafted as a LHP.

[igor67]

How on earth can you rate Bailey ahead of Adenhart if their stuff is that close, but Adenhart has substantially better command? The difference between a 95 and a 96 mph fastball is nothing compared to being able to set-up hitters and hit your spots consistently.

[nikip43]

Im just curious where the lefty from Missouri (Elbert) has gone. I haven't seen his name mentioned in the paper since the time I posted his one run, 17 strikeout performance.

[colbyjack]

The story did note that Bailey has had the added advantage of more exposure so far this spring. He has pitched 7-9 times so far this year, while Adenhart has only appeared in 3 games. Once again, the advantage of pitching in a warmer state.

 

Elbert is ranked 7th, moving up 5 spots from his preseason ranking, and likely is a first-rounder.

 

Erik Cordier is holding steady at 34.