The 2018 MLB Draft Thread

[reillymcshane]

With the Brewers drafting so late, I'm wondering if a Community Mock Draft is feasible. Any thoughts?

[Eye Black]

PG Mock Draft 1.0

 

Has the Brewers taking prep catch Will Banfield.

They have former 2015 Brewers draft selection, SS/3B Jonathan India, going #18 overall. India has had an exceptional season for the Florida Gators this year including a 1.391 OPS through 40 games.

[Eye Black]

With the Brewers drafting so late, I'm wondering if a Community Mock Draft is feasible. Any thoughts?

I am always up for the Community Mock Draft, but understand if it would be a little too deep and time consuming this year. Every year the draft is a crapshoot, but trying to predict this year’s draft seems even more volatile than usual. The MLB Draft is one of my favorite baseball events each year, so I would be happy to help with whatever is decided.

 

Here are a few ideas if we decide to forego the standard Community Mock Draft:

 

1) Find a few posters (5-10) that can be available over a smaller timeframe near the draft and assign 2-4 selections each for a first round mock draft.

2) Anyone that wants to participate can list their own individual first round mock draft predictions.

3) Have everyone predict a few items such as who will go #1-#5, who their favorite hitter and pitcher is in the draft, and who they think the Brewers will select. Could also have everyone select the three best players they think will be available at the Brewers selection.

 

Just a few thoughts, hard to believe the draft is only six weeks away already.

[And That]

Here are the aggregate top 100 prospects in the draft, based on 10 different public and paid sources. Brewers picks highlighted:

 

1. Casey Mize, RHP, 4yr

2. Matthew Liberatore, LHP, HS

3. Nick Madrigal, 2B, 4yr

4. Jarred Kelenic, CF, HS

5. Shane McClanahan, LHP, 4yr

6. Travis Swaggerty, CF, 4yr

7. Ryan Rolison, LHP, 4yr

8. Alec Bohm, 3B, 4yr

9. Brady Singer, RHP, 4yr

10. Nolan Gorman, 3B, HS

11. Kumar Rocker, RHP, HS

12. Carter Stewart, RHP, HS

13. Jackson Kowar, RHP, 4yr

14. Logan Gilbert, RHP, 4yr

15. Brice Turang, SS, HS

16. Ethan Hankins, RHP, HS

17. Mason Denaburg, RHP, HS

18. Cole Winn, RHP, HS

19. Joey Bart, C, 4yr

20. Ryan Weathers, LHP, HS

21. Mike Vasil, RHP, HS

22. Sean Hjelle, RHP, 4yr

23. Nander De Sedas, SS, HS

24. Jeremy Eierman, SS, 4yr

25. Cole Wilcox, RHP, HS

26. Triston Casas, 1B, HS

27. Tristan Beck, RHP, 4yr

28. Greyson Jenista, OF, 4yr

29. Will Banfield, C, HS

30. Connor Scott, CF, HS

31. Trevor Larnach, RF, 4yr

32. Steele Walker, RF, 4yr

33. Mike Siani, CF, HS

34. Noah Naylor, C, HS

35. Griffin Conine, RF, 4yr

36. Jonathan India, 3B, 4yr

37. Konnor Pilkington, LHP, 4yr

38. Tristan Pompey, OF, 4yr

39. Anthony Seigler, C, HS

40. Alek Thomas, CF, HS

41. Seth Beer, 1B, 4yr

42. Kris Bubic, LHP, 4yr

43. J.T. Ginn, RHP, HS

44. Jake McCarthy, CF, 4yr

45. Tim Cate, LHP, 4yr

46. Xavier Edwards, 2B, HS

47. Austin Becker, RHP, HS

48. Jordan Groshans, 3B, HS

49. Blaine Knight, RHP, 4yr

50. Nico Hoerner, SS/2B, 4yr

51. Griffin Roberts, RHP, 4yr

52. Slade Cecconi, RHP, HS

53. Joe Gray Jr., OF, HS

54. Jeremiah Jackson, SS, HS

55. Luke Bartnicki, LHP, HS

56. Lenny Torres Jr., RHP, HS

57. Nick Schnell, OF, HS

58. Zack Watson, OF, 4yr

59. Nick Decker, RF, HS

60. Austin Bergner, RHP, 4yr

61. Owen White, RHP, HS

62. Tanner Dodson, OF/RHP, 4yr

63. Parker Meadows, CF, HS

64. Jameson Hannah, OF, 4yr

65. Nick Northcut, 3B/RHP, HS

66. Jonathan Childress, LHP, HS

67. Simeon Woods-Richardson, RHP, HS

68. Landon Marceaux, RHP, HS

69. Steven Gingery, LHP, 4yr

70. Osiris Johnson, SS/OF, HS

71. Elijah Cabell, OF, HS

72. Luken Baker, 1B, 4yr

73. Sean Wymer, RHP, 4yr

74. Raynel Delgado, 3B/SS, HS

75. Grayson Rodriguez, RHP, HS

76. Adam Hill, RHP, 4yr

77. Daniel Lynch, LHP, 4yr

78. Gunnar Hoglund, RHP, HS

79. Grant Lavigne, 1B/3B, HS

80. Jake Wong, RHP, 4yr

81. Kyle Bradish, RHP, 4yr

82. Jaden Hill, RHP, HS

83. J.P. Gates, LHP/1B, HS

84. Kendall Logan Simmons, 3B/SS, HS

85. Isaiah Campbell, RHP, 4yr

86. Adam Kloffenstein, RHP, HS

87. Cody Deason, RHP, 4yr

88. Matt Mercer, RHP, 4yr

89. Chandler Champlain, RHP, HS

90. Mitchell Kilkenny, RHP, 4yr

91. Zack Haake, RHP, 4yr

92. Ryder Green, OF, HS

93. Cadyn Grenier, SS/2B, 4yr

94. Justin Jarvis, RHP, HS

95. Durbin Feltman, RHP, 4yr

96. Jordyn Adams, CF, HS

97. Blaze Alexander, SS, HS

98. Max Marusak, OF, HS

99. Cole Sands, RHP, 4yr

100. Grant Koch, C, 4yr

 

125. C.J. Willis, C, HS

155. Trey Riley, RHP, JC

185. Ty Madden, RHP, HS

215. Dallas Woolfolk, RHP, 4yr

245. Cooper Stinson, RHP, HS

[Patrick425]

My son graduated from Waukesha West in 2016 and played Varsity baseball for 3 years there. So, even though Kelenic never did play on West's baseball team (as someone mentioned, there played summer baseball), we have been following him very closely. Because of the age difference (2 Years), my son didn't play with or against him at all in youth baseball. However, my son did play in a Fall High School baseball league his Sophomore year, and Kelenic was on one of the teams as a 7th grader. If I remember correctly, I believe he pitched against him for one of his at bats and got him on a line-out to 2nd base.

 

His dad founded and owns (or at least owned - not sure if he still does) Five diamonds, which is now Infinity Fields in Waukesha.

 

Another "brush with fame" that my son had in baseball was several youth games against Ty Weber who is a sophomore at University of Illinois and one of their better pitchers. They also played against each other in High School. There are also 2 or 3 local players from Arrowhead and Catholic Memorial that are on Michigan's current team. Dragani from CMH is an outstanding freshman pitcher for them.

 

No more summer HS baseball in WI after this year. I'm glad my son graduated before that happened.

[Eye Black]

The draft speculation thread has been a little slow this year. The first round is just four weeks from today. I haven’t been able to follow amateur baseball as closely as in the past, but it doesn’t appear to be a bad year to be drafting in the early 20’s. Outside of Casey Mize there isn’t really a consensus among the top five. I am normally a strong proponent of taking bats in the early rounds, but this year the depth of high school righthanders seems really strong. It might be worth taking a chance or two on finding a future rotation arm among their first three selections (#21, #60, #73).

 

One intriguing high school hurler is RHP Grayson Rodriguez who seems to be steadily climbing draft boards. Sounds like the physical conditioning and velocity both saw significant spikes in the right direction over the past year.

 

Some high school righthanded pitchers that have dropped down the board due to injuries and have an outside chance to fall to the Brewers first pick are Ethan Hankins and Mason Denaburg. HS pitchers (especially injured ones) are a risky demographic, but also a risk that could pay off in a big way.

 

I am also curious to see how far Brice Turang falls in the draft. He has been one of the most publicized players in this class, but now looks likely to fall outside of the top ten. Regardless, I doubt he has a chance to fall into the 20’s at this point.

[clancyphile]

If India slips down, I'd take him as a bat-first SS.

 

Maybe he can be MLB-ready by 2020-2021.

[And That]

Baseball America mock draft.

Oregon State OF Trevor Larnach to the Brewers.

 

MLB Pipeline mock draft.

Larnach again.

 

2080 Baseball mock draft.

Stetson RHP Logan Gilbert.

[And That]

Updated aggregate top 100 prospects. +/- is change from last time. Brewers picks highlighted:

 

1. Casey Mize, RHP, 4yr (0)

2. Nick Madrigal, 2B, 4yr (+1)

3. Matthew Liberatore, LHP, HS (-1)

4. Jarred Kelenic, CF, HS (0)

5. Travis Swaggerty, CF, 4yr (+1)

6. Shane McClanahan, LHP, 4yr (-1)

7. Alec Bohm, 3B, 4yr (+1)

8. Kumar Rocker, RHP, HS (+3)

9. Carter Stewart, RHP, HS (+3)

10. Ryan Rolison, LHP, 4yr (-3)

11. Brady Singer, RHP, 4yr (-2)

12. Nolan Gorman, 3B, HS (-2)

13. Cole Winn, RHP, HS (+5)

14. Brice Turang, SS, HS (+1)

15. Logan Gilbert, RHP, 4yr (+1)

16. Joey Bart, C, 4yr (+3)

17. Jackson Kowar, RHP, 4yr (-4)

18. Ryan Weathers, LHP, HS (+2)

19. Mason Denaburg, RHP, HS (-2)

20. Ethan Hankins, RHP, HS (-4)

21. Sean Hjelle, RHP, 4yr (+1)

22. Trevor Larnach, RF, 4yr (+9)

23. Jeremy Eierman, SS, 4yr (+1)

24. Grayson Rodriguez, RHP, HS (+51)

25. Jonathan India, 3B, 4yr (+11)

26. Connor Scott, CF, HS (+4)

27. Mike Vasil, RHP, HS (-6)

28. Triston Casas, 1B, HS (-2)

29. Tristan Beck, RHP, 4yr (-2)

30. Greyson Jenista, OF, 4yr (-2)

31. Cole Wilcox, RHP, HS (-6)

32. Nander De Sedas, SS, HS (-9)

33. Steele Walker, RF, 4yr (-1)

34. Noah Naylor, C, HS (0)

35. Mike Siani, CF, HS (-2)

36. Will Banfield, C, HS (-7)

37. Kris Bubic, LHP, 4yr (+5)

38. Alek Thomas, CF, HS (+2)

39. Anthony Seigler, C, HS (0)

40. J.T. Ginn, RHP, HS (+3)

41. Jordan Groshans, 3B, HS (+7)

42. Tristan Pompey, OF, 4yr (-4)

43. Konnor Pilkington, LHP, 4yr (-6)

44. Griffin Conine, RF, 4yr (-9)

45. Griffin Roberts, RHP, 4yr (+6)

46. Jake McCarthy, CF, 4yr (+2)

47. Xavier Edwards, 2B, HS (-1)

48. Blaine Knight, RHP, 4yr (+1)

49. Seth Beer, 1B, 4yr (-8)

50. Nico Hoerner, SS/2B, 4yr (0)

51. Lenny Torres Jr., RHP, HS (+5)

52. Tim Cate, LHP, 4yr (-7)

53. Jameson Hannah, OF, 4yr (+11)

54. Nick Schnell, OF, HS (+3)

55. Adam Kloffenstein, RHP, HS (+31)

56. Austin Becker, RHP, HS (-9)

57. Joe Gray Jr., OF, HS (-4)

58. Jeremiah Jackson, SS, HS (-4)

59. Slade Cecconi, RHP, HS (-7)

60. Parker Meadows, CF, HS (+3)

61. Jordyn Adams, CF, HS (+35)

62. Zach Watson, OF, 4yr (-4)

63. Owen White, RHP, HS (-2)

64. Trey Riley, RHP, JC (new)

65. Kyle Isbel, CF, 4yr (new)

66. Tanner Dodson, OF/RHP, 4yr (-4)

67. Simeon Woods-Richardson, RHP, HS (0)

68. Jake Wong, RHP, 4yr (+12)

69. Nick Northcut, 3B/RHP, HS (-4)

70. Matt McLain, SS/2B, HS (new)

71. Raynel Delgado, 3B/SS, HS (+3)

72. Nick Decker, RF, HS (-13)

73. Kyler Murray, OF, 4yr (new)

74. DaShawn Kiersey, OF, 4yr (new)

75. Gunnar Hoglund, RHP, HS (+3)

76. Luke Bartnicki, LHP, HS (-21)

77. Elijah Cabell, OF, HS (-6)

78. Jonathan Childress, LHP, HS (-12)

79. Sean Wymer, RHP, 4yr (-6)

80. Aaron Hernandez, RHP, 4yr (new)

81. Jayson Schroeder, RHP, HS (new)

90. Austin Bergner, RHP, 4yr (-30)

82. Luken Baker, 1B, 4yr (-10)

83. Steven Gingery, LHP, 4yr (-14)

84. Adam Hill, RHP, 4yr (-8)

85. Landon Marceaux, RHP, HS (-17)

86. Jaden Hill, RHP, HS (-4)

87. Durbin Feltman, RHP, 4yr (+8)

88. Blaze Alexander, SS, HS (+9)

89. Cody Deason, RHP, 4yr (-2)

90. Austin Bergner, RHP, 4yr (new)

91. Isaiah Campbell, RHP, 4yr (-6)

92. Mitchell Kilkenny, RHP, 4yr (-2)

93. Osiris Johnson, SS/OF, HS (-23)

94. Grant Lavigne, 1B/3B, HS (-15)

95. Matt Mercer, RHP, 4yr (-7)

96. Chandler Champlain, RHP, HS (-7)

97. Justin Jarvis, RHP, HS (-3)

98. Lyon Richardson, RHP, HS (new)

99. Ryder Green, OF, HS (-7)

100. Cadyn Grenier, SS/2B, 4yr (-7)

 

125. Grant Little, SS, 4yr

155. Brandon Dieter, SS/RHP, HS

185. Jason Bilous, RHP, 4yr

215. Tarik Skubal, LHP, 4yr

245. Mitchell Parker, LHP, HS

[Eye Black]

Here is a Composite MLB Draft Rankings spreadsheet created using a combination of both mock drafts and rankings lists.

 

This spreadsheet list was created by an SB Nation writer for Talking Chop.

[JDBrewCrew]

https://www.perfectgame.org/Articles/View.aspx?article=15176

 

Has the Brewers taking Logan Gilbert

[JDBrewCrew]

https://www.baseballamerica.com/rankings/mlb-mock-draft/

 

Baseball America new Mock. Behind paywall this time. Would love to know Brewers pick.

[JDBrewCrew]

Callis released his first mock draft today. Link below. Has Brewers taking Trevor Larnach, OF, Oregon State

 

https://www.mlb.com/news/college-players-lead-in-mlb-mock-draft/c-276190214?tid=151437456

[LouisEly]

Brewers liked India enough to draft him three years ago... would not be surprised to see them go to the well again. Can he stick anywhere on the left side of the infield? He has a pretty ridiculous BABIP this year though.

 

Same with Jeremy Eierman (but without the ridiculous BABIP). He put up some serious power last year, but has a fairly high K rate.

 

Larnach has done nothing until this year. I like that he's LH, but am concerned about one year wonders. Would rather have Seth Beer; his numbers are down this year because of a .252 BABIP, but once again he walks more than he K's and has a career K rate of 11% and BB rate of 20%. He's been playing RF for Clemson; I haven't seen him throw so I don't know if he can stick there, but he seems athletic enough (listed at 6'2", 195) to not be stuck in LF or 1B.

 

If Logan Gilbert is still on the board though, it's him in a heartbeat.

[Jenkins5]

From the limited amount of research I have done, seems like there should be a number of high upside high school arms for our pick on board.

 

Seth Beer seems like he’d be on radar. His insane Bb% to K % is incredible. Has big power power upside. Wood bat concerns are there. Weird hearing how unathletic he is now & how he will be limited to 1B, maybe LF if needed. Coming out of high school it appeared he was much better in that department. I don’t know if he is a 1st round pick anymore but if there in 2nd, could be real good pick

[nate82]

I would go with Beer in the first round depending on who is or isn't available. I believe Beer's upside is that of Schwarber and he is better suited at 1b than in the OF.

[reillymcshane]

I don't know that much about the amateur players, but Seth Beer kind of scares me as a 1st round pick. Looking at his numbers, he's regressed every season. Lower average, slugging and walk rate every season. And his strikeout rate is the worst of his college career. Add in that he might be limited to 1B - it's not exactly the kind of guy I'd want to spend our top pick on. Now for later picks - 2nd round, comp pick - sure. But not in the first round.

 

Of course, perhaps I just don't know that much about the guy. I'm just going by stats and scouting info.

[JDBrewCrew]

Two New Mocks Out this Morning.

 

Fangraphs

21. Milwaukee Brewers – Connor Scott, CF, Plant HS (FL)

The Brewers have been tied to a wide swath of players this spring and typically play value rather than specific demographics with high picks. They’re near the top of a run of prep bats at this point. They’ve been tied to a few names, but Scott is probably the best on the board here.

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/2018-mlb-mock-draft-v-2-0/

 

Baseball America at the link below. Pay walled but if someone wants to pass along the name at least that would be nice.

https://www.baseballamerica.com/rankings/mlb-mock-draft/

[And That]

That BA mock is the same one you asked about a few posts above. Look back a few posts... I revealed who it was.

[JDBrewCrew]

My bad. They said it was "new" when they tweeted it out. Thanks!

[nate82]

I don't know that much about the amateur players, but Seth Beer kind of scares me as a 1st round pick. Looking at his numbers, he's regressed every season. Lower average, slugging and walk rate every season. And his strikeout rate is the worst of his college career. Add in that he might be limited to 1B - it's not exactly the kind of guy I'd want to spend our top pick on. Now for later picks - 2nd round, comp pick - sure. But not in the first round.

 

Of course, perhaps I just don't know that much about the guy. I'm just going by stats and scouting info.

 

I would only take Beer in the 1st round if there is no one else worth picking at that spot. His power is intriguing and he has shown in the past to take walks. Who knows maybe he just needs a small adjustment in his swing mechanics and he will be golden. The power is there and the patience is there maybe a team just needs to be a little patient and let the light bulb go on in his head and they have a Schwarber type of player on their hands.

[LouisEly]

I don't know that much about the amateur players, but Seth Beer kind of scares me as a 1st round pick. Looking at his numbers, he's regressed every season. Lower average, slugging and walk rate every season. And his strikeout rate is the worst of his college career. Add in that he might be limited to 1B - it's not exactly the kind of guy I'd want to spend our top pick on. Now for later picks - 2nd round, comp pick - sure. But not in the first round.

 

Of course, perhaps I just don't know that much about the guy. I'm just going by stats and scouting info.

http://thebaseballcube.com/players/profile.asp?ID=203447

 

Somewhat explained by his BABIP - .352 as a FR, .288 as a SO, .252 as a JR - although his BB rate is down slightly this year and his K rate slightly up, but still much higher BB rate than K rate. Never confuse trends with absolute value.

 

The truth is likely closest to his SO year... which is still pretty darned good.

[colbyjack]

I had the chance to see Kelenic a couple of weekends ago. If you're interesting in reading my report on him and watching the video I took, check this link (he's really, really good, and it's too bad the one year we don't pick in the top 10 he's available):

 

https://www.perfectgame.org/Articles/View.aspx?article=15175

 

We also posted a mock draft last week if you're interested in seeing that. We had the Brewers taking Logan Gilbert, although we've heard the same thing as most everyone else in that they're in on everyone:

 

https://www.perfectgame.org/Articles/View.aspx?article=15176

 

Jonathan India won't fall to the Brewers pick. He could go in the top 5-10 range now. And don't judge Trevor Larnach on the lack of production prior to this year, the dude is legit. His tools have long been known and he's finally living up to those tools by the numbers he's posting.

 

See Beer is one of the most discussed players I have encountered. I have compared him to a young Ben Grieve before given his tall, angular build, lack of a defensive profile, ability to take pitches and draw walks combined with the power ability. It's a difficult profile because he really doesn't offer much other than the bat, and he may not hit more than .250-.270, but he's going to hit bombs.

 

Everyone has their favorites and at some point I hope to share a few more of my own. I've been on a pretty good run lately picking some of the Brewers' early picks, including Hiura, Erceg and Cody Ponce, although I openly admit I don't/didn't have any inside knowledge to make those picks. Obviously picking in the 20's makes projections more difficult, but one player I really like, and most don't have him evaluated as being taken as high as No. 21, is Nick Schnell, a prep outfielder from Indiana. To give a sneak peak, here's a detailed report that will be filed on Schnell on the PG site tomorrow, but David Rawnsley sums up his talents perfectly (sounds a lot like a young Christian Yelich):

 

NICHOLAS SCHNELL

 

Height/Weight: 6-2/180

Bats/Throws: L/R

Birthdate: March 27, 2000

High School: Roncalli HS

Hometown: Indianapolis, Ind.

Travel Team: Indiana Bulls

Commitment: Louisville

Projected Draft Round: 1C-2

 

The scouting term "projectable" is used the vast majority of the time with pitchers and probably appropriately. Young pitchers with right combination of physique and relative maturity are just going to get better and history has proven that out. Since projecting a position player has much more to do with the ability to hit rather than other tools, and hitting is notoriously hard to project, the term simply isn't used nearly as much.

 

Nicholas Schnell is an exception to that and he's continuing to prove that this spring by the amount of improvement he's shown just between last summer and this spring, specifically in the strength in his swing and how the ball is carrying off his bat. Not to mention the improvement in his draft stock.

 

Schnell was listed at 6-foot -2, 180-pounds last summer and this scout's notes at one event specifically say " Noticeably more slender/less physically mature than most peers." Schnell is a bit young for the 2018 class, he turned 18 in late March, but looks far younger physically. Yet he was good enough last summer, with five tools showing strongly, that he was selected a Perfect Game All-American.

 

Schnell's left handed swing has some aspects that scout's pick on, he loads deep and barred creating extra length and he often lags his barrel through the zone on pitches he could turn on with more core and lower body use to drive his bat speed. But the results speak for themselves. Last summer, Schnell showed advanced contact ability and the ball come off his barrel hard with gap power and occasional lift when he did get turned. This spring, as he gets stronger and more physically mature, the ball is rocketing off his barrel differently, even when the barrel lag is present and the ball is going to left centerfield. It's the difference between eight months of getting stronger and leaves scouts thinking about what happens if Schnell fills out to 6-foot-2, 195 to 200-pounds.

 

The rest of Schnell's tools are very high level. He's a 6.6 runner in the sixty, speed that is likely to maintain itself as he grows stronger. He threw 95 mph in drills at the 2017 PG National Showcase and is a low 90's thrower off the mound. Schnell also shows instincts in the outfield and will likely be able to play all three outfield positions without handicap.

 

Right now Schnell looks more like a 30-45 pick on day 1 of the draft that a true first rounder. But due to that remaining projection, he would be on a short list to be a June 4th surprise and move up to the right team.

[nate82]

Schnell sounds like a left handed version of Trout. Reading that description reminds me of what they said about Trout.

 

Not saying he is the same as Trout but a lot of similarities if I am remembering Trout's scouting report correctly.

[colbyjack]

They're different kind of athletes, as Schnell is more tall and slender with what I would call more 'graceful' actions, while Trout was and always has been built like a Mack truck, defined more by his high motor and energy than the ease of his actions. As far as them just scraping the surface, yes, that is what Schnell is all about, and his game has come together pretty rapidly. Even if the Brewers don't take him with their 1st rounder don't be surprised if someone else does take him right around that pick.