Mock Top 10

[cressj]

1. SD - Jered Weaver

2. Det. - Justin Verlander

3. NYM - Wade Townsend

4. TB - Nick Adenhart

5. Mil. - Jeremy Sowers

6. Cle. - Jeff Niemann

7. Cinc. - Jeff Larish

8. Balt. - Stephen Drew

9. Col. - Phillip Humber

10. Tex. - Micah Owings

 

The Tigers, Brewers, and Devil Rays are the most likely to draft high schoolers IMO.

[colbyjack]

I have mixed feelings about the #1 pick, because I could see San Diego going a few different directions. A college pitcher will no doubt be the pick, but GM Kevin Towers did claim late last season that he didn't even want the #1 overall pick given the amount of money that it would take to sign that player. While he did give up his 2nd rounder when he sign David Wells, which I'm sure was part of the plan, things may be more complicated with Jered Weaver if he is advised by Scott Boras, who without a doubt will look to break the bank. I could easily see Towers going with a safer budget pick similar to how the Pirates took Bryan Bullington a few years ago.

 

I've heard the Mets are interested in Stephen Drew at #3.

 

There was a story in BA a couple of months ago that talked about how the D-Rays wanted to re-direct their draft focus & start loading up on pitchers, particularly college arms. Plus their last first-rounder pitcher was a college righty, Dewon Brazelton, so I don't think they're a lock for a high schooler (plus, they've had a few prep arms crash & burn on them).

 

I think Cleveland is just as likey to take a high school player as anyone in the top 10.

 

Cincinnati has been extremely cheap in their draft spending in recent years, so I'm not so sure they mess with Larish, a Boras advisee. And while you do draft best player available, that team needs some pitching badly.

 

Grady Fuson has shown that while he prefers college players he puts more emphasis on production at both levels, which is why he chose prep LHP John Danks from a year ago. Danks showed an advanced knowledge of pitching, great command & the ability to throw 3 advanced pitches for strikes. Owings is somewhat of a boom or bust pick, even if he is from the college level.

 

Just some thoughts. I give you & anyone credit for tackling a mock draft this early. I guess more than anything I would be somewhat surprised if only 1 high school player is taken in the first 10 picks. There are more & more high school players making a name for themselves, and I'm especially impressed with the depth of promising 2-way prospects such as Matt Bush, Chris Nelson, Chuck Lofgren, Steve Marquardt, Trevor Plouffe & Josh Copeland. If the draft falls as many are expecting it to now, we could see several promising prep players falling to the 2nd round & beyond.

[batman]

Interesting tidbit in the San Diego Union Tribune by way of Rotoworld:

 

www.signonsandiego.com/uniontrib/20040312/news_1s12padres.html

 

Early indications are the Padres will take pitcher Jared Weaver first overall in the June draft, then settle in for lengthy negotiations with agent Scott Boras, who's expected to advise the Long Beach State right-hander.

 

Towers said he'll study Weaver today, when the power pitcher is to face UCLA at Petco Park. Some clubs prefer to avoid Boras clients, but Towers has a good rapport with the agent. A few months after the 2000 draft, the two hashed out a major league contract for Xavier Nady after the Padres drafted him 49th overall.

 

Weaver worked 45 2/3 consecutive scoreless innings for Team USA last year.

 

Having a good rapport with Scott Boras seems dangerous. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/wink.gif

 

~Bill

[colbyjack]

Thanks for providing that Bill, that's very good to know. While it confirms the Padres interest in Weaver, it also confirms that Weaver is associated with Boras.

 

I do know that teams aren't entirely opposed to lengthy holdouts with college pitchers since the good & healthy ones log 120-140 innings over the course of the spring.

[Anders34]

Nice mock cressj. My feeling is it will go like this for the top 5:

 

Weaver

Townsend

Sowers

Verlander

Niemann

 

Of course, if the Mets are interested in Drew that would make this very different. I guess i would be a bit surprised considering they have Matsui and Reyes. Maybe Drew is headed for 3rd or corner OF. I would not be surprised to see 5 straight college pitchers go at the top of round 1.

 

If the top 4 are college pitchers, does anyone think the Brewers would have the guts to pick Adenhardt? I bet they would not hesistate if they really felt he was the best pitcher around.

[EdgarDiazRocks]

I'm hearing that Matt Bush can be lured away from San Diego State easily.

 

With so many good pitchers available, i think one of the top 5 will go hitter and look to see what's left in the 2nd round

[colbyjack]

Josh Fields may be on the rise, but I'm not so sure that he has elevated his position into the first round, much less the top 10 picks.

 

And you're right, signability should not be an issue with Bush.

 

And as of right now, no bat is worthy of a top 5 pick. Unless signability comes into play, I don't see a team reaching for a bat just because they feel comfortable with the pitching depth. If anything I think you might see a prep arm such as Adenhart and/or Homer Bailey sneak into the top 5.

[EdgarDiazRocks]

Yeah, I see Fields as one of Oakland's sandwich picks, but I think Detroit will look twice at every bat they can. I'm sure Dombrowski won't reach, but I'm also sure he will have looked at every possibility.

[Bonderman38]

Hi there, I'm a big Detroit Tigers fan and I can tell you that the Tigers will not be drafting a hitter with this year's #2 pick. While they would love to add an elite positional player to their farm system, there is no Delmon Young or Rickie Weeks caliber of player this year (They wanted Weeks really bad last year).

 

At any rate, according to one of Detroit's baseball writers, the Tigers top 3 as of right now are: 1)Verlander, 2)Niemann, 3)Adenhardt. Dave Dombrowski is adamant about taking high-ceiling prospects, that are signable, in the early rounds (i.e Sleeth, Sborz, Moore, Clevlen). As long as the prospect has the potential to develop into an all-star caliber player, they are willing to take the risks. This is a totally different drafting philosophy than the one that former Tigers GM Randy Smith had (he liked taking the safe route and selected polished collegians who had low-ceilings).

 

BTW, just wanted to say that this is an awesome site.

[Anders34]

Thanks for the info. Bonderman. Fill us in on anything you hear about the Tigers draft plans!! BTW, I was sad to see Tiger stadium go away. My best friend interned at Ford for a summer. You cannot beat a CF upper deck ticket for $2 and then they threw out free ice cream. Had to have a radio because we were at least 500 ft. from home plate.

[TheRightAnswerInFlushing]

I am hoping that the Tigers screw up their draft and steer clear of Verlander. Let them take Drew or Niemann. I don't think San Diego has the guts to go with Verlander, either. As far as the Mets are concerned, they couldn't have a better team selecting #1, overall. The Padres are a California club, and Long Beach State is a California club. They are separated by only 90 miles. San Diego is also a small market club, so they will be afraid to take the risky pick. They will almost certainly take Weaver. First and foremost, as I said, he's a hometown boy, so they will get great PR. Second, he's the closest to the majors, so they can get some almost-immediate help.

 

It's all on the Tigers. They COULD take Verlander, and that would really disappoint me. I suppose that I'll have to continue rooting for mediocre outings by Verlander.

[Bonderman38]

LOL Anders, I do miss Tigers stadium. It had a lot of charm and had a real cozy feeling about it, but all good things must end right?

 

Sure, I'll keep you posted if I hear anything new on the Tigers plans. Speaking of which, there is a new article in the DetNews today by Lynn Henning and he states that if the draft were held today, Phil Humber would *likely* be the pick among Verlander and the Rice trio. But I've been reading Henning for years and when it comes to the draft, he tends to make guesses based on the Tigers' needs, college stats and from reading BA (for whatever reason he still thinks the Tigers like the low-ceiling, low risk draft route). At the about this time last year, he said the Tigers would likely pick Michael Aubrey, whom the Tigers never seriously considered. He was also surprised when the Tigers selected high-ceiling Jay Sborz in the second round, not me though.

Anyways, I'd be pretty shocked if Verlander isn't Detroit's pick because their scouts, and especially SD Greg Smith and assistant GM Al Avila are all very high on him. Verlander was #1 on their draft board coming into the season and not much has changed. Also, Dombrowski loves power pitchers and had said he wanted to stock pile as many as he can into the farm system, so I don't think he'd pass up an opportunity at a mid-90s guy with great stuff and a very high-ceiling like Verlander.

 

Flushing, you are right. If Verlander starts to have more outings where he gives up a ton of walks, I guess I could see the Tigers selecting one of the Rice trio or Nick Adenhardt, a guy whom the Tigers really like as well and wouldn't hesitate to take. But unless he totally falters, Verlander will be the pick. It's still early though, so anything is possible.

[TheRightAnswerInFlushing]

It would be great if the Tigers blew it and selected someone other than Verlander. Is there any chance that the Tigers will fire Dombroski and re-hire Randy Smith before the draft? *crosses fingers*

 

Someone made a very astute point: if the Padres do not select Weaver, it affects the draft quite a bit because Detroit is not going to take another Weaver with the bad blood between them and his brother, Jeff.

[KyleSleeth]

There is no way I can see Detroit passing on Verlander if he's still there at #2. I chatted w/ Greg Smith at the tigerfest in February and he is VERY high on Verlander. He said the tigers were focusing on 10 players who they may take at the #2 spot. Of the 10 he said 2 were position players. I'm sure everyone knows who those 2 are(drew,Larish). I can't see them taking another Rice pitcher. Baugh was abused when he was at rice, he threw 170http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/eyes.gif pitches in a single outing. Matt Anderson has all but flamed out. I just can't imagine them going to that Rice Well again. As Bonderman stated above Dombrowski is all about the power arms. He values ceiling more than polish. Barring and injury I believe Verlander will be the tigers pick.

 

I have searched high and low for a good site about the baseball draft,I think I have found it. You guys do a great job on this site. I really enjoy the player profiles,and the message boards. Thanks

[11]

http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/glasses.gif nm

[colbyjack]

Thanks for your thoughts KyleSleeth. I'm pretty happy that we have 2 of Detroit's more prominent young pitchers contributing on this forum http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif .

 

Do you think the Padres will want to deal with Boras (Weaver)? I don't. How about the Tigers? No. Mets? Maybe. If not the Mets, then Weaver may drop out of the top ten to maybe the DBacks at 15. It's only an opinion and you know what that's worth.

 

Well, Kevin Towers has openly said that Weaver is #1 on their list, and he hasn't been afraid to let everyone know that. He reportedly is not afraid to deal with Scott Boras clients, as he did in 2000 with 2nd round pick Xavier Nady. At first I too wouldn't have thought that they would take a Boras client, but that doesn't seem to be an issue.

 

If the Padres don't take Weaver for some reason I could see him slide some. Although Detroit's GM, Dombrowski, is another guy that doesn't seem to be afraid to deal with Boras clients.

 

Again, I think the top 2 right now will be Weaver & Verlander. Given some of the comments provided by Mets & Tigers fans, here is my top 5 projection:

 

1. Padres- Jered Weaver

2. Tigers-Justin Verlander

3. Mets-Jeff Niemann, Nick Adenhart or Homer Bailey

4. D-Rays-Phillip Humber

5. Brewers-Take your pick, Kat, xis & others have banned me from selecting/jinxing picks

[Anders34]

Kyle Sleeth, you bring up a decent point about the Rice pitch count. These guys are overused. The top 3 throw at least 110 pitches an outing. Humber had 134 a week ago and around 120 again last time out. However, if you can make it through 3 years at Rice pretty healthy, hopefully you will have found the arm troubles if they happen. I don't know much about Baugh or Anderson. What kind of 'stuff' did they have. Did they consistently throw low to mid 90's with great slider/curveballs? Part of what concerns me about the Rice trio is they really fatten their stats against some pretty weak WAC competition. That said, I would still love for the Brewers to have any of the 3.

[TheRightAnswerInFlushing]

If the Mets passed up Jeff Allison at #12 in 2003, I doubt they would take any HS pitcher at #3--especially a right-hander. None of these guys has Allison's stuff.

[KyleSleeth]

Anders, Baugh is/was a guy who pitches in the low 90's tops out at 96. After being drafted by the tigers #11 overall he pitched very effectively in low a ball. Then in the off season they discovered a torn labrum. Tigers officials connected the injury to his over use at Rice( I blame tigers officials). Baugh missed about a year and a half. He is back close to 100% and is still a decent prospect. matt Anderson was the #1 overall pick. This still disgusts many of us tiger fans. How Randy Smith could pick a relief pitcher with the #1 OVERALL pick is still beyond many of us. He did throw in the upper 90's touching 100 at times. The thing about Anderson is his fastball is straight. Big Leaguers could handle his fastball cuz it has no movement. Anderson got hurt a couple seasons ago and now tops out around 93. He was recently sent to the minor league camp. Both players were Randy Smith picks(former tigers gm). I don't want to put full blame on Rice. The tigers should have known Baugh was being overworked. I would never agree with a reliever being the #1 overall pick under any circumstances. It was drafting like this that has Detroit in the shape were in now.

[xisxisxis]

5. Brewers-Take your pick, Kat, xis & others have banned me from selecting/jinxing picks

 

You could use your powers for good and suggest Drew. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/happy.gif

[colbyjack]

If the Mets passed up Jeff Allison at #12 in 2003, I doubt they would take any HS pitcher at #3--especially a right-hander. None of these guys has Allison's stuff.

 

That could be a good point, but did they pass on Allison or did they really like Milledge, who also fell farther than he should have on pure talent?

 

As for none of them having Allison's stuff, Homer Bailey may have an argument there, as he has touched the 96-97 range in the past and has an outstanding curveball. Adenhart doesn't have the pure velocity, but he's so dang polished. I've compared him to Zack Greinke before and I still believe that is a decent comparison.

 

And David, Stephen Drew it is http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif . If I get bored of pumping him up I'll plug in Jeff Larish.

[TheRightAnswerInFlushing]

I've never seen Bailey, so I don't know, but if he's getting it up into the mid-90s, he has an appreciably better fastball than greinke. I'm not as high on Greinke as most. Greinke is very polished, but it has been my experience that low strikeout totals above A ball are usually a very bad sign for right-handed pitchers.

 

I don't really care about strikeouts at the major league level, but, in the minors, they are usually a decent indication of the quality of a guy's stuff. Not always, but usually. Greinke struck out only 34 guys in 53 innings at AA. I do realize, however, that he was very young for the league.