Relief Pitcher Probabilities

[Outlander]

With the quality of return that the Brewers have received back from trading some of their own relievers and the lack of performance from those relievers after being traded I am confident Stearns won't be making any big relief pitching trades this year. It may be difficult at times to watch but as pointed out by others I would think he would try some more of the in house options.

[BrewCrewBlueDevil]

If we are relying on Cravy, Wang or Jungman we are going to be disappointed. One pitcher to split Barnes and Knebel would help the pen situation immensely. Cordell for Neshek? Is Coulter for Neshek not enough?

[82brewcrew82]

I'm going to be pissed if we trade for a reliever without at least trying guys like Wang and Cravy. That's two possible bullpen upgrades that cost you nothing.

 

I mean, have we really learned nothing? The value you get from bullpen guys in trades typically isn't even close to what you have to give up to get them.

 

 

This x100. However, if they are in the same position at the deadline as they are now, I think they would have a hard time explaining to the casual fan as to why they sat on their hands if those internal options don't pan out.

 

So yeah, churn through the internal options and then see what you can get for some mid to lower level prospects I guess.

[Lee16]

I would call the Angels and ask about David Hernandez, they're not going anywhere this year and their farm system is so bad any of our top 30 prospects would rank in their top 10, if not 5.

[adambr2]

If we are relying on Cravy, Wang or Jungman we are going to be disappointed. One pitcher to split Barnes and Knebel would help the pen situation immensely. Cordell for Neshek? Is Coulter for Neshek not enough?

 

The Phillies would probably not bother taking our calls the rest of the season if we offered Coulter for Neshak. Coulter is far more organizational filler than prospect at this point.

 

Cordell for Neshak is a lot better starting point but there will be plenty of buyers out there looking for help that top that .

[trwi7]

I would call the Angels and ask about David Hernandez, they're not going anywhere this year and their farm system is so bad any of our top 30 prospects would rank in their top 10, if not 5.

 

They're a half game out of the wildcard and will be getting Trout and potentially Skaggs and Richards and maybe even Heaney back.

[JohnBriggs12]

How about spending some of the unexpected bump in revenue (34,000 to see the Padres?) and go after a vastly overpaid but still very effective David Robertson? If you pick up most if not all of his salary, the Sox won't demand much value in players in return.

 

Nats have showed interest but with their big lead they aren't rushing in on Robertson and the salary is a big reason. But who's got more salary flexibility than the Brewers? A back end that includes Knebel and Robertson? Count me in.

[Bnowell4evr]

I'm hoping that Braun gets healthy and we can send him to the Dodgers for Brandon McCarthy, a reliever like Josh Fields and a prospect. I'm not inclined to trade anyone who might be apart of our future.

[reillymcshane]

How about spending some of the unexpected bump in revenue (34,000 to see the Padres?) and go after a vastly overpaid but still very effective David Robertson? If you pick up most if not all of his salary, the Sox won't demand much value in players in return.

 

Nats have showed interest but with their big lead they aren't rushing in on Robertson and the salary is a big reason. But who's got more salary flexibility than the Brewers? A back end that includes Knebel and Robertson? Count me in.

The White Sox were reportedly holding out for a premier prospect for Robertson. Now, is that true? Is it still true?

 

He's making $12M this year and is due $13M next year. And while we have a low payroll, it's still a lot of money. I think I would rather take that money and get a couple of decent bullpen arms. With Robertson, you're paying a 'closer' premium. For Milwaukee, I think a pair of solid bullpen pitchers would be more valuable than one 'closer' guy.

[JohnBriggs12]

How about spending some of the unexpected bump in revenue (34,000 to see the Padres?) and go after a vastly overpaid but still very effective David Robertson? If you pick up most if not all of his salary, the Sox won't demand much value in players in return.

 

Nats have showed interest but with their big lead they aren't rushing in on Robertson and the salary is a big reason. But who's got more salary flexibility than the Brewers? A back end that includes Knebel and Robertson? Count me in.

The White Sox were reportedly holding out for a premier prospect for Robertson. Now, is that true? Is it still true?

 

He's making $12M this year and is due $13M next year. And while we have a low payroll, it's still a lot of money. I think I would rather take that money and get a couple of decent bullpen arms. With Robertson, you're paying a 'closer' premium. For Milwaukee, I think a pair of solid bullpen pitchers would be more valuable than one 'closer' guy.

 

Solid as in Feliz? Solid would be fine but if their cost is reasonable the seller can demand a lot. The White Sox can't unless they pick up a lot of salary.. No doubt Robertson is overpaid but he's not a huge performance risk and they won't have a worse value on the books next year.

[nate82]

Robertson isn't having a bad year for the White Sox so I don't believe they are going to have to take on much of his salary.

 

The White Sox are going to demand Brinson+ for Robertson. I don't think that is worth it even with the White Sox taking on half of his salary for this year and next. I don't believe the White Sox are going to pay any of Robertson's salary at all and by the deadline they will get a nice haul for Robertson.

 

I would rather go after someone that is not going to take a big time prospect to acquire someone like Jeffress or even K-Rod would do the trick.

 

For targets that I think might not take a lot to get would be Brad Hand (Padres), Juan Nicasio (Pirates), Jeffress (Rangers), K-Rod (Tigers), Jason Motte (Braves), and Jim Johnson (Braves).

 

Johnson maybe the only one in that group that may cost a little bit more due to the "closer" effect.

[MadThinker88]

Robertson is regarded as the top trade deadline candidate & the best relief pitcher on the market.

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2017/06/top-50-trade-deadline-candidates-for-2017-2.html

 

On top of that the White Sox have no need to dump payroll. Washington thought they had a deal in place for Robertson over the winter and the Sox backed out.. The Sox will be looking for a kings ransom.

 

Although a nice thought, the Brewers are better served targeting other options and not negatively impacting the overall rebuild process.

Stay the course and it will be a fun multi year run for the Crew (2019 thru 2023)..

[jerichoholicninja]

Robertson is regarded as the top trade deadline candidate & the best relief pitcher on the market.

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2017/06/top-50-trade-deadline-candidates-for-2017-2.html

 

On top of that the White Sox have no need to dump payroll. Washington thought they had a deal in place for Robertson over the winter and the Sox backed out.. The Sox will be looking for a kings ransom.

 

Although a nice thought, the Brewers are better served targeting other options and not negatively impacting the overall rebuild process.

Stay the course and it will be a fun multi year run for the Crew (2019 thru 2023)..

 

Not that it matters but an MLB Trade Rumors article last week said that Nats ownership nixed the deal.

[brewcrewdue80]

Brewers trade Torres, Drake, Peralta for Wang, Cravy, and Wilkerson. Bullpen solved....til it isnt. It's asinine to have RPs playing in AAA and not giving them a 10 appearance shot over these 3. You cant possibly believe ythey will give value to you in a trade, and sticking with them in hopes they can be what? A 3ERA RP? 4? The 3 in AAA may be 3ERA types or better awaiting you now. If 10 appearances show otherwise that's not really true, then move to the next body. Blazek, Lopez. Suter some more (but BP pitching just not likely to stick) either way whats the point of these guys in AAA if when your team needs help at the position they play and arent used?

[JosephC]

It would be interesting to see what the Rangers think of Jeffress right now. They gave him almost 10 straight days off at the beginning of the month and since then he's been used 5 times. 4 good results and 1 bad result. In the four good appearances he pitched 6 innings and gave up only 3 baserunners (2 hits, 1 walk) and 0 runs. In the bad appearance he gave up 4 runs (2 home runs) in only 1 inning of work. So while the monthly split doesn't look very good, Jeffress has been better recently.

[brewerfan82]

For targets that I think might not take a lot to get would be Brad Hand (Padres), Juan Nicasio (Pirates), Jeffress (Rangers), K-Rod (Tigers), Jason Motte (Braves), and Jim Johnson (Braves).

From MLBTradeRumors.com:

The Padres are seeking a “Will Smith” type of return for lefty setup man Brad Hand, one rival executive tell Rosenthal. The Brewers traded Smith to the Giants last season in exchange for right-hander Phil Bickford, who at the time was 14 months removed from being a first-round pick, and catcher Andrew Susac — a former top prospect with MLB experience already under his belt.

Considering both Bickford and Susac's perceived values have likely dropped since we've obtained them, I think including those two in a trade is probably a decent starting point for what to expect to give up, at minimum, for a decent reliever in this market. In which case, I'd pass and sink or swim with internal options.

[nate82]

I agree that price is way to high for Hand.

[JosephC]

Lots of teams are all giddy after seeing the returns for Chapman and Miller last year but I'm not seeing any reliever in this market that approaches those two. Robertson is probably the best out there and he's not even in the ballpark.

 

Chapman's 3 year splits from 2013-2015 = 2.05 ERA, 1.02 WHIP, 1.82 FIP

Chapman's 2016 stats prior to being traded = 2.01 ERA, 0.90 WHIP, 1.93 FIP

 

Miller's 3 year splits from 2013-2015 = 2.15 ERA, 0.94 WHIP, 2.08 FIP

Miller's 2016 stats prior to being traded = 1.39 ERA, 0.77 WHIP, 1.78 FIP

 

Robertson's 3 year splits from 2014-2016 = 3.32 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, 2.92 FIP

Robertson's 2017 current stats = 3.20 ERA, 0.87 WHIP, 2.81 FIP

 

Padres can ask for a Will Smith type return for Hand but IMO the only reason Smith's price-tag turned out to be so high is because the Giant's snagged themselves in the after-effects of the Chapman/Miller bidding. If anything, considering the size of Robertson's contract, I think the White Sox could expect to see a Will Smith type return for him and the rest of the reliever market works down from there. Sorry, but a reliever with a historical FIP just under 3 that earns 12-13 million dollars per season just isn't a guy that I would be tripping all over to get.

 

That being said, even if Hand goes for a reasonable price he'd probably command more than I'd want to give up. Robertson, Hand and Neshek probably are the three relievers likely to be dealt that would have a price-tag that would be too high for me. Probably get up into the Phillips/Dubon territory when trading for one of those pitchers, and I wouldn't move Phillips or Dubon for a reliever (would as part of a bigger package if it returned a starting pitcher). Take the targets Robertson, Hand and Neshek off the board and remove Brinson, Ray, Diaz, Ortiz, Hader, Woodruff, Phillips, Dubon, Erceg, Bickford, Burnes from the trade pieces list and I'm all for making a deal that would help the bullpen.

[JohnBriggs12]

Robertson's contract severely limits the his value in the market unless they pick up significant salary. A Ryan Cordell and Cody

Ponce/Angel Ventura type package would be about what they could expect if the Brewers picked up the entire salary. It might not even take that much. Given that Cordell is blocked and Brewers have other arms that have passed Ponce, that isn't a very steep price. Maybe a Freddie Peralta alone (low level arm with an upside) might get it done.

[3and2Fastball]

It's not even like we need to get elite relievers to improve the bullpen. Anyone who can pitch an inning without giving up a run is an improvement at this point.

 

Pitching an inning without giving up a run on a consistent basis is the exact definition of elite.

[billymac]

It's not even like we need to get elite relievers to improve the bullpen. Anyone who can pitch an inning without giving up a run is an improvement at this point.

 

Pitching an inning without giving up a run on a consistent basis is the exact definition of elite.

 

I'd say relief pitching an inning without giving up a run consistently is reliable. I'd say elite is consistently pitching an inning without allowing any base runners.

[jerichoholicninja]

It's not even like we need to get elite relievers to improve the bullpen. Anyone who can pitch an inning without giving up a run is an improvement at this point.

 

Pitching an inning without giving up a run on a consistent basis is the exact definition of elite.

 

I guess I should have said pitching a scoreless inning every now and then instead of giving up a run every time you pitch like our current bullpen.

[nate82]

Krod released by the Tigers today. So when will he be signed by the Brewers?

[OnaBadger58]

Per Jon Morosi via Twitter:

 

Sources: #Astros, #Brewers, #RedSox among teams showing continued interest in #Tigers reliever Justin Wilson. @MLB @MLBNetwork

[Mudville9]

Jeffress is officially on the trade block apparently. The way his season has gone, he shouldn't cost much and honestly he can't be much worse than what we have. I'm just not sure TX will deal him back to us for pennies on the dollar.