Relief Pitcher Probabilities

[BrewCrewBlueDevil]

List a pitcher and a possible trade with an explanation:

Kelvin Herrera, KC: Brett Phillips and Luis Ortiz. The Brewers have Ryan Cordell, Lewis Brinson and a host of other outfielders with potential. Kansas City desperately needs outfield help. To get something you have to give something (Ortiz). Herrera would have to set up Knebel. Barnes gets the 7th, paired with Drake or Hader to face left handed batters.

[nate82]

If we are giving up both Phillips and Ortiz we better be getting back a starter with at least 3 years of control left.

 

For Herrera the starting point starts with Brinson plus more like Hader and Ortiz more.

[JosephC]

Luis Ortiz is on my no-trade list and the only way I would trade Phillips would be in a package to obtain an upgrade in the starting rotation. No problem with the concept of trading for a quality reliever, but the price for top-tier relief pitcher would be too high for me. Would be open to the idea of trading players like Cordell or Freddy Peralta for a quality reliever that is controlled beyond this season.

[reillymcshane]

I would suggest looking at Ryan Madson of the A's.

 

He's 36, so the guy could go off a cliff - always a risk. But he's pitching well, and has another year beyond 2017 on his contract (he makes $7.66M a year). I doubt he costs as much as the higher profile guys - or a young stud pitcher - plus Milwaukee can easily eat his salary.

 

I honestly don't know what a guy like Madson would cost. He makes a lot - but not that much. He's older - but not that old. He's good - but not great. Ultimately, I'm just not sure how much he fetches in a deal.

 

For Milwaukee, I'm wary of giving up any top player - but I'm okay with a fringe player and taking on salary.

[KCBrewerfan34]

I believe there are deals to be made without trading top 10 prospects. I'm calling the Phillies about Neshek for sure.

[jerichoholicninja]

Giving up anything of substantial value for relief pitching would be stupid. It's not even like we need to get elite relievers to improve the bullpen. Anyone who can pitch an inning without giving up a run is an improvement at this point.

[jerichoholicninja]

I believe there are deals to be made without trading top 10 prospects. I'm calling the Phillies about Neshek for sure.

 

Neshek has been pretty dominant this year and other times in his career. Even though he's a free agent I don't think he can be had without a team's top 10 prospect.

[KCBrewerfan34]

I believe there are deals to be made without trading top 10 prospects. I'm calling the Phillies about Neshek for sure.

 

Neshek has been pretty dominant this year and other times in his career. Even though he's a free agent I don't think he can be had without a team's top 10 prospect.

 

 

He's 36 and The Phillies are going nowhere, a top 20 prospect in our organization is pretty good.

[Roderick]

As others have stated, we are not looking for the premium pitchers. We just need someone that is competent for the 6th and 7th innings. Preferably someone that is overpaid that would lessen the prospect value needed from our end. For those targets we shouldn't really be talking about our top 20 prospects. After that is fair game.

 

I guess if there is fair value for an 8th inning guy I would up the prospect value. There would be additional value in pushing Barnes down so that he could match up with the 6th or 7th inning as needed. Depending on age and length of control, there are a host of position player prospects that I would be willing to trade to improve the pen, but would really try to stay away from projected starting pitchers.

 

Here are my probabilities: Seems to me we are about overdue for a free return of Jeffress and KRod.

[reillymcshane]

As we look at various relievers, I want to point out the Zach Duke trade from Chicago to St. Louis last year as one way of looking at how much a player may cost in trade.

 

Duke was a good reliever from 2014-16. At the time of the trade last year, he was 33 years old, and had produced a 2.63 ERA in 37.2 innings. So, not to shabby.

 

Duke was in the second year of a three year deal that paid him $5M annually.

 

The Cardinals traded for Duke at the deadline last year - giving up minor league OF Charlie Tilson. Coming into 2016, Tilson was ranked 16th by John Sickels in the Cardinal Top 20. He was not ranked in the Top 10 by Baseball America (I don't know his exact spot - as they only post the top 10 guys to the public each year). He was hitting .282 at the time of the trade at AAA. He had a career .293 batting average - so that was pretty good. But he doesn't hit for power. Most scouting reports pegged him as a 4th outfielder type. He was a solid prospect - Top 20 guy - but not Top 10.

 

I know this is just one trade - but I think it shows that the team can get a decent reliever or two without giving up a Top 10 type player. The Cardinals took on about $7M in salary - and while Duke ended up hurt this year - it was not a huge package they gave up to get a decent relief pitcher. Heck, they gave Cecil $30+ million in the offseason they were so desperate to fill a bullpen void.

 

The Brewers can take on some salary - and even another year of a player - if necessary. The big thing is that we don't have to acquire a superstar reliever. We'd love to have Andrew Miller - but that's not how we should operate at this time. If you could get a pair of guys like Neshak and Madson - you're filling some huge voids in the pen.

 

I'm sure teams will ask for a lot for guys at this time - but I'd avoid overpaying. I know it's hard, but we have to be patient and wait for the deal that's right for us. I think our ability to take on salary can be a huge asset.

[Warning Track Power]

Kelvin Herrera, KC: Brett Phillips and Luis Ortiz.

Phillips and Ortiz is the starting point for someone like Chris Archer. I would be so disappointed if they traded those two for a reliever.

[jerichoholicninja]

I believe there are deals to be made without trading top 10 prospects. I'm calling the Phillies about Neshek for sure.

 

Neshek has been pretty dominant this year and other times in his career. Even though he's a free agent I don't think he can be had without a team's top 10 prospect.

 

 

He's 36 and The Phillies are going nowhere, a top 20 prospect in our organization is pretty good.

 

If Neshek was a Brewer I would be pretty disappointed in only a 10-20 prospect for a return.

[MrTPlush]

Neshek is really old, a rental, and does not have a dominant track record. A 10-20 in our system would be a good return.

[billymac]

Hurts looking right now at Blake Parker, 33 games, 2.01 ERA, 47/9 K/B ratio for the Angels, one of the guys DS tried stuffing in AAA in his 40th man roster shuffling.

[A Swing and A Drive]

Way too much for a rebuilding team to give up for Kelvin Herrera. Relief pitchers can be fickle. Neftali Feliz was at a similar value level as Herrera is now just a few seasons ago and he fell off the shelf.

 

Ortiz alone is too valuable to give up for Herrera, IMO. Controllable starting pitchers with a mid-rotation ceiling hold a ton of value for the Brewers.

 

I could handle Phillips and someone like Jorge Lopez for Herrera, however.

[trwi7]

I'm going to be pissed if we trade for a reliever without at least trying guys like Wang and Cravy. That's two possible bullpen upgrades that cost you nothing.

 

I mean, have we really learned nothing? The value you get from bullpen guys in trades typically isn't even close to what you have to give up to get them.

[liveforoctober]

Jeremy Jeffress is the answer.

[mlloyd10]

If we are giving up both Phillips and Ortiz we better be getting back a starter with at least 3 years of control left.

 

For Herrera the starting point starts with Brinson plus more like Hader and Ortiz more.

 

What the Hell are you talking about - Brinson plus one of Hader/Ortiz gets you in the running for Chris Archer type, not a RP with an ERA over 5

 

Look what Miller got last yr - A top 20, a top 100 and two nice pieces

[bill hAll Star]

If Herrera was up to his old tricks (given 1 year of control remaining), I could see the ever-ballooning price for relievers leaving the price being close to that, as insane as that sounds.

 

Given that he is struggling, the price is way too high. Plus, the Royals are back in the mix and I'm not sure they're motivated to sell anymore.

[Manty Brewer Fan]

Hurts looking right now at Blake Parker, 33 games, 2.01 ERA, 47/9 K/B ratio for the Angels, one of the guys DS tried stuffing in AAA in his 40th man roster shuffling.

 

Also shows just how volatile RP can be. I still think Stearns general approach for this season in regards to the pen is brilliant. 2-3 years from now when I believe we're in a better position i would expect him to invest a bit differently.

[KCBrewerfan34]

If we are giving up both Phillips and Ortiz we better be getting back a starter with at least 3 years of control left.

 

For Herrera the starting point starts with Brinson plus more like Hader and Ortiz more.

 

What the Hell are you talking about - Brinson plus one of Hader/Ortiz gets you in the running for Chris Archer type, not a RP with an ERA over 5

 

Look what Miller got last yr - A top 20, a top 100 and two nice pieces

 

 

 

Some amateur GM's are losing their mind on here, I'm going to chalk it up to we're in 1st place but Herrera FOR Brinson is laughable

[docduany]

Jeremy Jeffress is the answer.

 

I concur 100%. It seems like too easy of an answer.

[LouisEly]

Jeremy Jeffress is the answer.

Straight up for Peralta in a dual change-of-scenery trade.

[adambr2]

Jeremy Jeffress is the answer.

Straight up for Peralta in a dual change-of-scenery trade.

 

How about Feliz? Jeffress has had plenty of success here, Feliz plenty of success in Texas...

 

I've seen conflicting reports that Feliz was DFAed or released, which is kind of bad journalism if he indeed hasn't been released yet, which I don't know why he would have been. Big difference between DFA and release .

[jerichoholicninja]

Jeremy Jeffress is the answer.

Straight up for Peralta in a dual change-of-scenery trade.

 

How about Feliz? Jeffress has had plenty of success here, Feliz plenty of success in Texas...

 

I've seen conflicting reports that Feliz was DFAed or released, which is kind of bad journalism if he indeed hasn't been released yet, which I don't know why he would have been. Big difference between DFA and release .

 

I'd imagine many "journalists" don't know what DFA means.

 

As for Peralta, why exactly would anyone want to trade for him? He throws kind of hard but is nothing special for today's game and can't throw anything for a strike. His only "good" year wasn't even that good. Especially for Jeffress, a guy who was dominant for 2.5 years and has two plus pitches. I understand he's struggling but I wouldn't just give him to another team for their crap.