College player update thread 2

[Katuluu]

You need to take some chances on players with high upsides or you'll never have "superstars".

 

Drafting on potential also can net you Sam Bowie instead of Michael Jordan.

[igor67]

Well I could call it the Nick rule, but i used Griffin because he was the perfect example of a player who'd rate nearly a zero on Command, but would get about a 70 on his fastball. Guys like Wood and such may have been wild but had enough command to work with to improve.

 

I like to envision success for a pitcher as Stuff * Command. A pitcher with Phenomenol stuff can be average with less command, while a guy with great command is "maximizing his stuff". I think thinking about it this way properly emphasizes all the aspects of pitching into a nice simple broad picture.

 

For the record the Brewers need guys who can score potentially at 80% and above on my equation. That is high end starters. I think Weaver has enough Command to convert solid stuff into a high score. But in general we'll be looking for hihg stuff modest command guys that could improve.

[11]

Well - zero is not possible on the 20-80 scale. I think his FB was an 80 and if you think he had a 20 on command, then I think the blame falls on KC's scouting department. Let's say overall he's a Colt45. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/happy.gif

 

I'm not saying any team should go out and throw down 2M$ on a raw project. But if a team only drafts "finished products" with lower ceilings because they cannot scout projection effectively or they have no confidence in their own player developement ability, that team will never contend for a title.

 

I agree with you on drafting higher ceiling, projectable prospects.

[TheRightAnswerInFlushing]

I have to respectfully disagree with Colbyjack. While opinions are opinions, I think you are wrong in your statement that "developing command/control" is just as difficult as developing stuff.

 

Simply, there are loads of flame-throwers who later developed command (Ryan, Koufax, Randy Johnson, etc) and NO pitchers who lacked stuff and then developed great stuff. No one comes out of college throwing 88 and then gets to 95 as a pro. You might find that with some high school kids, but not with college kids. College kids are too far along the developmental chain to suddenly develop better stuff. It just doesn't work that way. Some pitchers lose velocity after college and some keep their velocity, but, I'd say only 2 % to 3% gain velocity, and even when pitchers gain, they don't go from throwing 88 to throwin 95. Maybe they add 2 mph.

 

On the other hand, as I said above, Nolan Ryan, Randy Johnson, and Koufax all battled back from early career command/control problems to become hall of fame quality pitchers. In the cases of Koufax and Randy Johnson, they didn't go from terrible command to just "okay" command. They went from terrible command to truly outstanding command.

[colbyjack]

I think this thread is taking a different turn. At no point did I say that a pitcher was just as likely to add more velocity than he was to learn command. I'll be the first one to agree with 11 & say that velocity is a God-given gift. I didn't mean to imply that "learning" velocity was easy, I was just pointing out that while a pitcher can improve their control through different techniques, it just isn't as easy as what you make it sound.

 

What I am arguing is that command/control is just as important as velocity. You stated that pitching is 75% velocity & 25% control. I just can't agree with that, and I don't think there would be many pitching coaches that agree with you. While velocity is harder to come by, that doesn't mean that it is 2-3 times as important as control/command. You have to have both to truly be effective.

 

And your comparisons to Randy Johnson, Sandy Koufax & Nolan Ryan are all fine & good, but how many pitchers are out there that flamed out because they couldn't refine their control? I would say for each one of those guys there are at least 10 others that failed because they couldn't spot their pitches. That really is what made those guys so great for so long.

 

I'll use my own comparison. Remember Jamey Wright? When we got him from the Rockies we heard about how his stuff was very comparable to Kevin Brown's. He had the same nasty sinker/slider combination. What made Kevin Brown so great? He knew how to use his arsenal while Jamey Wright had no clue what his stuff would do. Wright even admitted that he didn't know what his pitchers would do.

 

And I think we're losing sight of the real point here, and that basically is that you don't think Weaver will enjoy success as a big league pitcher & therefore he shouldn't be the #1 pick because of his lackluster stuff. I'm going to share some thoughts from Jim Callis in his latest installment from AskBA:

 

Weaver throws an 88-94 mph fastball with lots of life, but his low three-quarters arm slot has led to debate about how much of weapon his slider will be against big league lefthanders. Weaver's fastball would rate a 60 on the 20-80 scouting scale, with his slider and changeup 50 pitches. His command is so good that his stuff plays better than its raw grades.

 

The part in bold is really the reason I have had Weaver rated #1 all spring. As I pointed out before, he had a great sophomore year, had an even better summer, and is virtually untouchable this spring. As Tommy pointed out, Long Beach State has a tough schedule. Now, I don't take college stats too seriously because it's really hard to translate their effectiveness. However, when you combine stats with scouting reports, you can learn a lot about a pitcher's effectiveness. In his case, I really don't think the numbers lie. He limits baserunners extremely well, and while he "only" throws in the 89-94 range, he knows what he's doing on the mound, and that can make up for the lack of pure stuff & then some.

 

Now, will Weaver ever be in the class of Ryan, Johnson & Koufax? Probably not. Mark Prior will be hard pressed to match those kinds of accolades. But could Weaver be a very successful #2 starter for years to come? Absolutely. I know your idea is to draft the pitcher with the highest ceiling flushing, but at this point in time it seems a lot more likely that Weaver will be a #2 than it does that guys like Townsend, Verlander & Niemann will ever be true #1's.

[H0FFY]

What an interesting thread!

 

Colby you interchanged the words stuff and velocity. An earlier writer defined stuff as ability to effortlessly throw a baseball (and I assume he meant with velocity).

 

I always, always define stuff as movement on pitches. I am sure, at MLB level, it is better to have a pitcher who throws 89 with movement, than to have a guy that throws 96 with no movement.

 

I guess the perfect pitcher is a guy who throws 96 with movement AND control, ala a Randy Johnson when he is on. Interestingly, I would say Pedro Martinez stuff is not as good as Johnson's, and his velocity is less, but his control is more than the Unit.

 

So, I would rank the needed attributes as stuff (movement), control (ability to use stuff), and velocity - in that order. Even if you get a low velocity guy with great stuff and control, you end up with Greg Maddux. That is ok!

 

The quote from BA, re Weaver, states "His command is so good that his stuff plays better than its raw grades."

 

If that means Weaver has little stuff with great control, then he does not have a high upside in MLB. Maybe in college that will get by, but not against a MLB lineup.

 

But if he has good/great stuff (movement) with great, great control, then he is as rare as hens teeth.

[colbyjack]

Hoffy, that's a good point. There is a difference between stuff & velocity, similar to the difference between command & control. They're related, and I agree, velocity often doesn't do a lick of good if it's as straight as an arrow (hello Jimmy Haynes).

 

And that is another reason why scouts do like Weaver. He does have good to great movement on his fastball. He not only spots his well, but it doesn't travel straight down the pipe. It can run & sink from what I've heard, and that along with his command improves the scouting rating. And stuff can be talked about in relationship to how his pitches work off of one another. A moving fastball can often make a pitcher's offspeed pitches look that much better.

 

And re-reading some of my thoughts I don't want to come across as a guy that just wants some savvy soft-tosser with our first-round pick. Most of my arguments were made to defend Weaver. I'm not 100% sold on Weaver, as I'm still a little concerned about the lack of a true #2 pitch a lot more than I am about his lack of ideal velocity. But as I've stated before, his production so far has definitely backed up the scouting reports on him. When those 2 things together go hand in hand it's hard not to think he can be successful as a pro.

 

And since the Brewers don't have a chance to get Weaver, Verlander & possibly Niemann the way he has been pitching lately, it comes down to guys like Sowers, Townsend & Humber if they do indeed intend on drafting a college arm. All 3 of those guys have their fair share of question marks. Townsend like Verlander has had his control problems this spring despite having good pure stuff, or should I say, velocity. Humber's velocity was in question in the past, but according to Anders & some other reports he's been clocked as high as 96 this spring, higher than either Townsend or Niemann. Plus, Humber, Townsend & Niemann have all been working deeper in games than what they probably should, racking up pitch counts in the 120s & 130s. Sowers has everything but velocity, and while I love his ability to pick apart batters one does have to wonder if he is indeed going to get knocked around more in the pros.

 

So that leads me to the prep arms that should be available, righties Homer Bailey & Nick Adenhart. Adenhart is as smooth & polished as they come, as I've compared him to Royals RHP Zack Greinke before. And like Greinke he's not just a soft-tosser, as he works comfortable in the low-90s, has hit the mid-90s on numerous occasions and there's no reason to think he can't add a few extra ticks to his fastball. Homer Bailey isn't as polished as Adenhart, but he's close. He has already been drawing comparisons to Texas fireballer Josh Beckett. Bailey has a better fastball in regards to velocity, and his curveball is rated as one of, if not the best breaking ball in the nation. Both of their upsides are pretty high, and the only real knock against them is the fact that they're high schoolers (which is a big enough knock, given the rate at which high school pitchers succeed).

 

I know several people with the Brewers have stated that they would like to get a college pitcher, but I hope they haven't ruled out the possibility of a prep arm. There are 2 really good ones that could be had, as 11 pointed out, we shouldn't be scared of the long-term results if our scouts think they're legit.

[madbad2000]

I know several people with the Brewers have stated that they would like to get a college pitcher, but I hope they haven't ruled out the possibility of a prep arm. There are 2 really good ones that could be had, as 11 pointed out, we shouldn't be scared of the long-term results if our scouts think they're legit.

 

Amen Patrick (and 11), don't be scared just because the guy is a prep. I'm intrigued by Adenhart and am becoming a bigger fan as the spring goes on.

[TheRightAnswerInFlushing]

Well,let's be clear. I didn't say that "pitching is 75% stuff and 25% command." What I said is that, when deciding whom to choose in this draft, stuff would constitute 75% of my decision and command would constitute 25%. That's very different from saying that "pitching is 75% stuff and 25% command. The reason why I value stuff over command at this point is that none of the pitchers eligible for this draft--or any draft--is a finished product. They all have a lot of developmental time left, and while a guy like Verlander can LEARN command, Weaver will never learn a 95mph fastball.

 

All of these pitchers, including Weaver, should spent AT LEAST a good 1 1/2 seasons in the minor leagues. I realize that there is a lot of nonsensical talk about bringing Weaver straight to the majors, but that won't happen--or shouldn't. They talk like that about a lot of players, but those kinds of jumps 1) rarely happen and b) often wind up retarding a player's career. You might see it with a closer, but no starter or position player is going to go from the draft to the major leagues. It's just a bad idea.

 

My point is that, at this stage of their careers, I don't care as much about command as I do stuff. Command can be improved, but stuff almost always stays the same or gets worse unless you find a new pitch like, say, Mike Scott. Verlander can develop command, whereas Weaver is never going to develop a better fastball or secondary pitches.

 

Personally, I am terrified that the mets will wind up with Weaver. It could very well happen. If SD passes on him, he will almost certainly be a Met because the Tigers are not going to draft another Weaver after the PR disaster with his brother.

 

My first choice would be to take Verlander. If Verlander is not available, I would choose between Townsend, Niemann, and Drew. Niemann has, I think, re-emerged as a legit top 5 choice. I am wary of his elbow, but I saw where he was again hitting "94" and "95" in his last outing, and that's a considerable improvement from the high 80s/low90s he was showing earlier.

[TheRightAnswerInFlushing]

There are some other points I'd like to make.

 

1) As to what percentage of "pitching" is composed of velocity/stuff, I would say 65% is velocity/stuff and 35% is control/command. There are many people--even top pitchers--who dispute this, but I attribute that ostensible disagreement more to their desire to promote the "cool/scientific" method of pitching than to admit that their success had more to do with what is below their heads than what's in their heads. My arguments for this ratio are all based on empirical evidence. Go look at the truly "GREAT" pitchers. I'm not talking about "good" pitchers or the "very good" pitchers, who, by way of travesty, found their way into the HOF. I'm talking about the all-time greats. Walter Johnson, Bob feller, Clemens, Martinez, Gibson, Seaver, Randy Johnson, etc. It's just an undeibale fact that the "vast" majority of the all-time greats were guys that threw 95+. Now, you can believe that, by some freak of nature, the guys who got the best fastball also got the best control/command OR you can realize that something is up. Now, many of them had above average command and control as well, but the degree to which their stuff was above average far exceeded to degree to which their command was above average. They didn't have the best command. There were loads of pitchers with better command---pitchers who never approached the kind of seasons that these guys had. It just seems to me that, when you talk about the GREAT pitchers (the guys in the "first tier" of the HOF), about 70% of them are 95+ guys.

 

2. Colbyjack, I believe, referenced Zach Greinke above. It was an appropriate reference. He is very similar to Weaver, although I think his secondary and tertiary pitches are better than Weaver's. I do not like Greinke for the same reason that I don't like Weaver. I firmly believe that Greinke is going to have a very rough go of it in the major leagues. I don't even expect him to throw all that well in AAA. Simply put, the number of RIGHTHANDED pitchers who can come up to the major leagues throwing 87-90 (which is where Greinke throws) and be better than a #3 is VERY SMALL.

 

3) On judging "command/control" from college statistics.

This has proved to be a VERY perilous endeavor. I cannot warn people enough about doing this. Simply, I can't even recall the number of times that pitchers who developed reputations for "outstanding command" at the collegiate and minor league levels came up to tthe majors and were wild. It happens a TON to pitchers like Weaver. WHY? While Weaver has "extraordinary" stuff relative to the bulk of other division I-A pitchers, his stuff grades as only slightly above major league average. In college, he can overpower the hitters. He can CONFIDENTLY throw strikes because he knows that there aren't too many hitters who can touch him. He can come right down the heart of the plate with a 92 mph fastball, get up in the count 0-1 and 0-2 and then nibble on the edges. He gets ahead early, and then he can nibble, stay on the edges, avoid the fat part of the bat, etc.

 

It happened with Aaron Heilman AND Paul Wilson.

Wilson had a reputation for great command at Florida State and, in 1995, he walked only 24 guys in 120 innings (1.8 BB per 9 IP). However, the next year, when he was called up the the majors, he walked 71 guys in 149 innings, which came to 4.3BB per 9 IP. Heilman walked 31 guys in 114 innings for Notre Dame (2.4 BB per 9 IP) and then walked only 76 in 241 innings (2.8 BB per 9 IP) between AA and AA. When he was called up to the Mets last year, he walked 41 guys in 65 innings for an average of 5.7 BB per 9 IP.

 

These are only 2 examples, but I could give a hundred others. Heilman was a guy who used his 88-92MPH fastball to get ahead at the lower levels. Then, after getting up in the count, he would throw his fastball at the edges and try to get hitters to dive for junk out of the zone. As they did with Wilson,people mistaskenly viewed his low walk totals as "good control/command." In reality, of course, both of them just rode their stuff to low walk totals. Their command was decent, but not great or even very good.

 

WHEN they came to the major leagues, they saw that it was much harder to get ahead in counts. First, the hitters were more selective. Second, you couldn't just wind up and throw a 90-92 mph fastball down the plate on the first pitch and expect to get either a swing and a miss or weak contact. They both tried that. What happens to pitchers like Weaver and Greinke is that they get to the major leagues and, naturally, they try to do the same thing that rbought them so much success at lower levels. However, their fastballs, which were overpwering at lower levels, just don't faze major league hitters. They start off trying to get ahead with the vanilla stuff they used in college, and it starts getting whacked off the "400 sign," so they immediately lose confidence. Then, they start nibbling from the outset, they fall behind, and it all goes downhill.

[Katuluu]

Two words, Christy Mathewson.

[TheRightAnswerInFlushing]

?

 

I didn;t say that there were "no" great pitchers who didn't have big fastballs. I said that the "vast majority" of great pitchers have big fastballs. There are exceptions, but the rule stands: people who throw 95+ are far more likely to become "great" pitchers than those who don't.

 

As a side question, what is everyone's feeling on Niemann after he has showed improved performance and velocity?

[Katuluu]

but the rule stands: people who throw 95+ are far more likely to become "great" pitchers than those who don't.

 

You mean like Brien Taylor and Todd Van Poppel? Or any number of other flamethrowers who blew out their arms? And how many hard throwers can you name that had horrible control and learned to harness it later? Ryan and Johnson are easy, but after that it's a pretty slim lot.

 

And defining those great pitchers solely on their fastball is doing them a serious disservice. All of them have pitches as good as, or better in most cases, then their fastball. That's what makes them great. And they all know how to pitch. You act like it's just a simple case of rearing back and letting it fly. If it was that simple, Bobby Witt would have been in the Hall of Fame years ago.

 

And Paul Wilson threw 95+ before he tore his labrum in 1996. He actualy went on the DL in June of 96 with shoulder tendinitis, and it was only found out at the end of the season that he had torn the labrum and required surgery. That might have something to do with he mediocre numbers. He pitched 26 innings in 97 due to injury, 57 in 98 due to injury, and 99 he was out of baseball. Now instead of having a 95+ mph fastball and a plus slider, he's a finese pitcher that can barely hit 90 mph.

 

Velocity certainly helps, but it's not the end all be all when it comes to dominating pitchers. I wouldn't even be suprised if players who top 95 mph have a greater chance of injury, thus reducing their chances of greatness even further. Their is just far to many things to judge to put so much weight on one solitary number.

[gregmag]

Just to pick up the fight on hs vs. college arms: I really would rule out high school pitchers from the upper rounds, categorically, because of the injury risk. They're too far away, too physically underdeveloped.

 

It's this simple: the Brewers can choose what kind of injury history they want in a pitcher. They can take a healthy 20 year-old who has already come through a couple of very risky years; or they can take a healthy 18 year-old who still has those risky years ahead of him. Why would you assume that risk when the stakes are so high?

 

I don't care how good a guy is at 17 or 18, he's probably going to flame out. The Brewers have a chance to win some hs arm gambles with Jones and Hendrickson, but those guys have sprouted in soil fertilized with the rotting corpses of JM Gold, Nick Neugebauer, Tyrone freakin' Hill . . . and the list goes on. The injury risk for a 20 year-old, while still significant, is a lot lower, and his body is closer to what it's going to be.

 

This isn't about the Moneyball manifesto to blow off high schoolers altogether. There's a good argument for that, but it's a different argument. With young pitchers, health is everything.

 

Have at it.

 

Greg.

[colbyjack]

Flushing, you make some good points, but once again I find myself disagreeing with you. Once again I think you're making too many broad comparisons while pointing to Hall of Fame pitchers. I'll probably respond to more of your points later, but for now I just don't have the energy.

 

Updates on college players for the week of Monday April 5 through Sunday April 11, 2004

 

Josh Baker, Wed. vs. Houston:

6.2 IP, 7 H, 2 ER, 14 K, 3 BB

 

The versatile Baker had his best game of the year. On most D1 teams, Baker would likely be a #1 starter. For the Rice Owls, he is their 4th starter/swingman.

 

Jeff Niemann, Wed. vs Houston:

2.1 IP, 3 H, 1 ER, 3 K, 1 BB

 

Rice HC Wayne Graham isn't afraid of bringing in any of his top pitchers to close out a ballgame. Niemann gets the call this time, as his weekend start likely will get pushed back to Sunday (at least one would think so).

 

Phillip Humber, Fri. vs. Miami (OH):

9 IP, 8 H, 1 ER, 12 K, 1 BB

 

Humber continues to be Rice's most impressive starter this year. He did throw 125 pitches in this game, which is a concern, but you can't argue with the results.

 

Jeremy Sowers, Fri. vs. Alabama:

7.2 IP, 7 H, 4 ER, 11 K, 1 BB

 

Once again his control numbers look good, and it's hard to imagine 4 runs scoring on only 7 hits & 1 walk. Still, all those runs were earned, as Sowers' ERA continues to be over 3.00.

 

Justin Verlander, Fri. vs. Virginia Commonwealth:

9 IP, 3 H, 0 ER, 16 K, 3 BB

 

Justin Orenduff, Fri. vs. Old Dominion:

8 IP, 7 H, 3 ER, 11 K, 2 BB

 

2 of the bigger arms for the 2004 draft dueled on Friday night, as Verlander had his best game of the year. Orenduff didn't do too bad himself, and I'm sure there were at least 30 scouts, crosscheckers, scouting directors & possibly a few general managers in attendance.

 

Wade Townsend, Sat. vs. Miami (OH):

7.1 IP, 4 H, 2 ER, 9 K, 3 BB

 

Another decent outing for Townsend, who like Humber has been rather consistent this year. Most of his lines have looked just like this one all year, unfortunately, including the relatively high walk totals.

 

Well, we don't have to wonder who Rice will start Tuesday against Texas, as their game today vs. Miami (OH) was rained out. Niemann likely is a lock to start against the mighty Longhorns. Looking forward to reports from Anders who will have the pleasure of watching that game on TV.

[Anders34]

I definately believe it will be Townsend today. Sunday is TBA. It may be Niemann but I think Graham will be tempted to save him for Tuesday against Texas. This will be Rice's last chance to beat them in the regular season. A few weeks ago, he tried to save Townsend for a Tues. Texas A&M game and had to bring him in for long relief after Baker got shelled. Rice wound up losing that game (a conf. game) and I bet he regrets it. For those that have it, the UT/Rice game will be on CSTV Tuesday night.

[CarolinaTommy]

Billy Buckner of South Carolina had a good outing last night against Florida. He went seven innings, struck out 7 and walked none.

 

South Carolina has a really good team this year with interesting prospects. People really forget about Landon Powell, but he's making a case for him as a first round pick, in my opinion. They also have a good RF Brendan Winn, which is a transfer from St. Petersburg JC. I think LHP Matt Campbell is one of the most underrated prospects in the draft and Aaron Rawl is a great college pitcher, even if he's a short RHP. They've got a frosh OF Campbell whose hitting very well. It's a really good program!

[colbyjack]

South Carolina is a very impressive team. I have always enjoyed how successful they are recruiting not only HS players, but JC trasnsfers. Landon Powell definitely has increased his draft stock. Getting in shape probably was the best thing he could have done for himself. In the game last weekend vs. Vanderbiilt it seemed obvious he was a man among boys on the field.

 

Here's a link to more midseason reports by BA, I believe for everyone to enjoy:

 

www.baseballamerica.com/t...eason.html

 

Princeton's BJ Szymanski is this year's John VanBenschoten. No, he won't be drafted as a pitcher, but as the report points out, in a year that positional talent is hard to come by, Szymanski likely will be taken in the first half of the first round. Midseason awards & class-by-class All-American teams can also be found.

 

And via BA's daily prospect reports:

 

The college game of the night pitted a pair of Justins as Virginia Commonwealth's Justin Orenduff faced off against Old Dominion's Justin Verlander. Despite Orenduff's 11-K complete game, Verlander stole the show, striking out 16 in a complete game three-hit shutout. Verlander threw 115 pitches, "his final one hitting 97 on the radar gun". Think Jered Weaver is a lock for the No. 1 pick in June? He's got competition.

 

97 on the final pitch? I'm sure flushing will quickly point out why this guy should be the #1 pick http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif . Seriously, if the walks weren't an issue, he would be. As Peter Gammons reported in the offseason (take that for what it's worth), Verlander at one point was the favorite to go #1 to the Padres.

[colbyjack]

Since we spend so much time covering the top college pitchers, I thought I would update the stats on a few of the positional prospects available for the June draft:

 

Stephen Drew-SS-Florida State

.308/.457/.626, 91 AB, 8 HR, 24 BB, 15 K

 

Drew continues to get on base at an incredibly good pace. He missed 3 weeks due to injury, but has returned for the past 2. While he looked pretty bad against NC State last week, he bounced back against Miami this past weekend. He'll need to stay hot if he expects to be taken where he should based on his talent. Given his injury history & connection with Boras, I would want nothing to do with him.

 

Eddy Martinez-Esteve-RF-Florida State

.407/.473/.731, 145 AB, 12 2B, 11 HR, 16 BB, 25 K

 

Martinez-Esteve is a much more aggressive hitter than his teammate Drew. He's posting some pretty impressive power numbers, and he might be making a name for himself to be in the running as the first positional prospect taken. Given his defensive liabilities, he's probably going to stay in RF or be moved to LF as a pro.

 

Dustin Pedroia-SS-Arizona State

.403/.506/.633, 139 AB, 17 2B, 5 HR, 26 BB, 8 K

 

An oustanding BB:K ratio for Pedroia. The smallish SS has surprising pop, and the guy just keeps on hitting. I suspect he'll be taken somewhere in between our 1st & 2nd round picks.

 

Jeff Larish-RF-Arizona State

.269/.366/.400, 130 AB, 11 2B, 2 HR

 

Larish continues to struggle. I wouldn't be surprised to see Larish come back for his senior year in hopes of bouncing back, unless he gets hot quick or someone takes him based on his sophomore season. I wouldn't count on that.

 

BJ Szymanski-CF-Princeton

.389/.451/.644, 90 AB, 6 2B, 4 3B, 3 HR, 9 BB, 13 K

 

Szymanski is the player that scouts are buzzing about. A true 5-tool CF with great speed & a promising bat, with power from both sides of the plate. He was hitting in the .415 range before this weekend.

 

I also thought I would provide some insight on some of the draft eligible players in BA's midseason All-American team that I haven't profiled yet:

 

Mike Ferris-1B-Miami (OH)

.369/.496/.856, 111 AB, 16 HR, 29 BB, 14 K

 

Ferris is a big boy at 6'2" 225 with the power to match. He hit a big HR off of Wade Townsend on Saturday, and gets on base at a great clip. He bats & throws left-handed, so he could be the ideal 1B. His stock has been on the rise this spring with his power & patience numbers, and could be taken as high as the first or second round.

 

Michael Rogers-RHP-NC State

6-1, 2.57 ERA, 9 games, all starts, 63 IP, 45 H, 64 K, 11 BB, .199 BAA

 

Rogers is a draft eligible sophomore, and has been a big part of NC State's success the past 2 years. He exhibits outstanding control. He might just be the right-handed version of Jeremy Sowers, as Rogers doesn't have overpowering stuff, but it's hard to argue with his results.

 

Matt Fox-RHP-Central Florida

9-0, 1.42 ERA, 10 games, all starts, 63.1 IP, 40 H, 80 K, 21 BB, .175 BAA

 

Fox is a sinker-slider pitcher that has always had good stuff, but has really jumped up this year as he seemed to have found his control. He can touch 94, and works easily in the low-90s. At 6'3", 190 Fox has a nice, projectable frame.

 

Mike Butia-OF-James Madison

.420/.500/.882, 119 AB, 10 2B, 3 3B, 13 HR, 17 BB, 11 K

 

Butia is another guy who has enjoyed a power surge this year. The 6'2", 215 outfielder hits left & throws right, and has solid tools across the board.

[cressj]

What is up with Justin Maxwell? I don't think he has played at all this spring.

[cressj]

Weaver 10-0 1.13

Townsend 7-0 1.60

Humber 7-1 1.61

Niemann 5-2 2.68

Verlander 4-3 3.00

Sowers 6-1 3.07

[colbyjack]

Maxwell broke the ulna in his left arm right before the season started. I thought he was supposed to be back by early April, and if he wants to be drafted high enough he is going to have to show a lot in a short amount of time. The injury, similar to a wrist or hand injury, could sap his power.

[Anders34]

Niemann got the start tonight against UT and lasted a whole 2 innings. He was pulled early by Graham with an unspecified injury. The radar gun CSTV only had Niemann throwing 87-92 with his fastball. In order to get it up to 92 he WAY overthrowed and was falling off to the 1st base side. The commentators said they were quite surprised and think there is something bothering Niemann. Obviously there must be something. I think his elbow may be still bothering him. I bet he is just trying to gut this season out so he is still a high draft pick. I have to say I am getting pretty scared off by the guy. Man i hope the Brewers are watching this!

 

Edit: CSTV interviewed a Rice assistant coach during the game. The Rice coach says Niemann has a slightly pulled groin that he pulled in a warmup pitch before the 3rd inning. At least it is not an elbow issue. Anyways, I still have some concern with Niemann. His velocity is pretty low and his control has been very erratic. Tonight he threw almost as many balls as strikes.

 

With UT up 2-0, Huston Street entered the game. Rice wound up scoring 2 (the last of which was from a balked in run).

 

With the game tied 2-2 in the bottom of the ninth and 2 runners on, Rice brought in Humber to try and save the day. He struck out 1 batter on a beautiful curveball and the next batter singled to right to score the winning run.

 

On a seperate note, the home plate umpire caught a foul tip right in the neck and was taken off the field in a stretcher and then to an ambulance. Ouch, that must have hurt. Hope the guy is o.k.

[scoop53714]

Bailey and Adenhart are looking more and more likely.

[11]

Do you think that any club would take this college relief pitcher with almost no projectibility in the first round, considering the depth of pitching in this year's draft?

 

I don't even see the A's reaching for him.