College player update thread 2

[colbyjack]

Link to the previous thread:

pub123.ezboard.com/fbrewe...=511.topic

 

Season performances of the top 6 college pitchers going into the weekend of 4/2-4/4:

 

Jered Weaver: 8-0, .64 ERA, 8 games, all starts, 56.2 IP, 22 H, 89 k, 8 BB, .118 BAA

Justin Verlander: 3-2, 3.26 ERA, 8 games, all starts, 47 IP, 35 H, 65 K, 26 BB, .200 BAA

Phillip Humber:5-1, 1.79 ERA, 8 games, 6 starts, 45.1 IP, 25 H, 69 K, 11 BB, .156 BAA

Wade Townsend: 5-0, 1.69 ERA, 9 games, 6 starts, 53.1 IP, 31 H, 69 K, 22 BB, .168 BAA

Jeff Niemann: 4-2, 3.65 ERA, 8 games, 6 starts, 44.1 IP, 29 H, 48 K, 15 BB, .191 BAA

Jeremy Sowers: 4-1, 3.00 ERA, 6 games, all starts, 39 IP, 32 H, 42 K, 3 BB, .221 BAA

 

Individual performances for the week of Monday 3/29-Sunday 4/4:

 

Jeff Niemann, Fri, vs. Nevada:

7 IP, 2 H, 9 K, 2 BB, 0 ER

 

Niemann continues to pitch well, despite the fact that it was against Nevada, a decent team, but not quite like their upstart basketball peers. I listened to innings 3-6 in this game, and Niemann was getting a lot of quick outs on ground balls & weak fly balls while striking out a few batters. He wasn't blowing it by their hitters, but he certainly was in control. He is now 5-2 and his ERA dropped to 2.63.

 

Phillip Humber, on Saturday vs. Nevada:

7 IP, 5 H, 1 ER, 3 K, 3 BB

 

Wade Townsend, Sunday vs. Nevada:

7 IP, 3 H, 0 R, 8 K, 4 BB

 

Rice completed the sweep with a 16-2 win today. Townsend with a good effort, although once again those walk totals are a little too high.

 

Jered Weaver, vs. rival Cal State Fullerton:

8 IP, 7 H, 2 ER, 11 K, 1 BB

 

2 ER? What's his problem?

 

Jeremy Sowers, Friday vs. South Carolina:

9 IP, 8 H, 2 ER, 9 K, 2 BB

 

Sowers pitched well against the 6th rated South Carolina Gamecocks, a well rounded team with a good offense, and outdueled surging RHP Billy Buckner. Both of the runs he gave up along with both of the walks he issued & 6 of the hits came within the first 5 innings. He settled down nicely to close the game in the late innings, as Vandy beat USC 6-2, netting Sowers his 5th win of the year.

 

Justin Verlander, Saturday vs. George Mason:

7IP, 6 H, 4 ER, 9 K, 2 BB

 

It was nice to see his walks down a little bit for a change, although I wondered how he gave up 4 ER until I looked further in the box score & saw that Verlander also hit 3 batters & threw 3 wild pitches. His control issues linger.

[cressj]

It was definitely a dominant night for the top pitching prospects on Friday. Weaver notched his 100th K of the year in under 57 innings. Sowers and Niemann both dropped their era's under 3. It will be interesting to see if Verlander, Humber, and Townsend can do the same later this weekend.

 

Weaver 9-0 0.84 56.2 IP, 9 BB, 100 K

Niemann 5-2 2.63 51.1 IP, 16 BB, 57 K

Sowers 5-1 2.81 48 IP, 5 BB, 51 K

 

I wish Sowers would have been scheduled to pitch today (Sat.) as I believe the Vandy game is on FSN.

[colbyjack]

I wish Sowers would have been scheduled to pitch today (Sat.) as I believe the Vandy game is on FSN.

 

Thanks for the heads up cress. I had to check to make sure, but sure enough FSN locally is carrying the Vandy/USC game. Even if Sowers isn't pitching there are plenty of future pro prospects on those teams. Lefty Ryan Mullins could pitch for Vandy, and could be a top prospect in '05. Warner Jones could also be a top pick in '05. Ryan Klosterman & Cesar Nicholas are a couple of Vandy players that could be taken in the first 5-10 rounds this year. And USC is loaded with prospects. Steve Pearce, Landon Powell, Billy Buckner, Matt Campbell, etc. While his name currently escapes me, South Carolina's Saturday pitcher has been having a good year as well.

 

I believe Jered Weaver's name has found it's way into the last 3 AskBA's, this time focusing on where Weaver would fall on the top 100 prospect list if he were currently a pro:

 

www.baseballamerica.com/t...askba.html

 

Weaver, the Long Beach State righthander, has started the year by going 8-0, 0.64 in his first eight starts, posting an 89-8 strikeout-walk ratio and a .118 opponent average in 57 innings. Along the way, he has become the consensus favorite to go No. 1 overall to the Padres in the draft. In the March 25 Ask BA, I broke down his stuff like this:

 

Weaver throws an 88-94 mph fastball with lots of life, but his low three-quarters arm slot has led to debate about how much of weapon his slider will be against big league lefthanders. Weaver's fastball would rate a 60 on the 20-80 scouting scale, with his slider and changeup 50 pitches. His command is so good that his stuff plays better than its raw grades.

 

Looking at the Top 100 and comparing him to other righthanders, I could see putting Weaver as high as No. 38 (ahead of Pittsburgh's John Van Benschoten) and as low as No. 50 (in front of Houston's Taylor Buchholz). I'd tend to err on the side of conservatism, because while I think Weaver merits going No. 1 I think he's also a bit overrated in the minds of the general public. He's not the second coming of Mark Prior. I'd put Weaver at No. 46, sandwiching him between two other righties, Seattle's Clint Nageotte and Cincinnati's Ryan Wagner.

 

The part I bolded is what I think most people are wondering. Before the season I saw so many people talk about how Jeff Niemann was the best college pitcher since Mark Prior. That may be true, but again and as always I'm not a big fan of throwing Prior's name in there, almost hinting that Niemann or Weaver or someone else could be that good. I know no one around here has done that, but I have seen it elsewhere.

[Anders34]

Listening to the first bit of the Rice game today. The announcers said said Niemann was operating in the 92-94 range and 'touched' 96 in an impressive outing. I think it is pretty safe to say Niemann is dialing it back in now after a rough start to the year.

 

Humber is on the mound today and already hit 96 on the gun in the 1st inning.

[CarolinaTommy]

I was at game watching Eric Beattie last night and heard that UF pitcher Justin Hoyman took himself out of the game after 7 or 8 pitches because of a bad back. A parent told me that the week before vs. U of Kentucky, Hoyman begged the coach to take him out because his back was hurting him. He actually threw well that night, but went 127 pitches. The weeks preceding that outing he went 129 pitches and 123.

[CarolinaTommy]

I also think its safe to say Niemann is back! I was a little worried there for a while but I suppose it was just a little rust.

[Anders34]

Rice pounded Nevada today. Humber got the win (Colby will supply the line). Paul Janish went 6 for 6 including 2 HRs (1 a grand slam). Humber didn't seem to have his best stuff today, but they got the job done.

[colbyjack]

Anders, thanks for the update on the Rice pitcher's velocities. When I listened to the game yesterday they didn't mention what Niemann was throwing. He most definitely sounds as though he's back.

 

Tommy, thanks for the news on Hoyman. Do you have a report on Beattie, or is that something you will submit to T1? I'm looking forward to a first-hand report. He hasn't received much pub this spring after his impressive showing on the Cape last summer. Good sinker from what I have heard...

 

And Janish once again comes through with a big game. I would not be surprised to see him taken in the first round given his defense & clutch hitting.

[igor67]

Weaver might not be the second coming of Prior, but I have to wonder how you can turn down a player who's a near surefire lock to be an excellent #2 in the majors? His pitches might not be awesome, but there's a ton of guys with good fastballs, most of whom couldn't hit the broad side of a barn. Guys with plus-plus command at that age are very rare, And I'd much rather take that type of sterling command than a somewhat better raw fastball or breaking ball. Who knows he might even be capable of finding another pitch he could master?

[Anders34]

I would be surprised if he doesn't go at the latest Round 2. Will Kimmey from BA still isn't on board though. Here is what he said in the latest BA Defend the Poll (I did not ask the question). If he is still there in the 3rd, 4th, or 5th, I say the Brewers should jump on it. After yesterday's performance, his BA is now up to .349. and his OPS is right at about 1.000. I would probably would not put him above Pedroia or Drew, but 5th round is interesting.

 

Q: &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp Mike from Houston asks:

With the way Paul Janish is swinging the bat lately, could he be the best all around short stop in college baseball? Who would have thought Janish would lead the team in home runs and rbi's?

 A: 

&nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp Will Kimmey: I'd say that title goes to Arizona State's Dustin Pedroia. Stephen Drew at Florida State's also in the mix. Janish is a very strong defender, and most likely the best of this group and his bat has been somewhat of a surprise this year as it has always been the question with him. Still, I wouldn't rate him ahead of Pedroia or Drew, who could each be drafted before the second round. Janish is tough to peg, but the fifth is probably as early as he'll go.

[CarolinaTommy]

I wrote the Beattie piece up and it should be on the Team One site here soon. I sent it to Jeff, but he hasn't received it yet. He might have gone out for the weekend.

 

Anyways, Beattie was throwing 89-92 MPH with his fastball, reaching 93 MPH. He gave up 10 hits in the six innings he pitched. I think he has been the victim of the aluminum bat. Some of the hits he gave up would not have been hits had they been off of a wooden bat. At some points, he tried to throw his fastball by hitters, which is not his game. I think he looks like a borderline first rounder right now.

 

I saw Kyle Schmidt yesterday and he has been at lower velocities his last few times out. He might be back at USF next year.

[11]

Drew returned to the Florida State line up this weekend after being out for ten games with an injury. Drew vs. NC State pitching went 0-12 with 5 strikeouts.

[Anders34]

thanks for the info. 11. That is too bad. I really would like to see someone pick him and let a pitcher drop to us.

[Katuluu]

Whichever pitcher does drop to us, I'm sure we'll be quite happy with.

[cressj]

I agree. I think there will be four college pitchers off the board before the Brewers pick and the Brewers will have a choice between 2 of the top 6.

[EdgarDiazRocks]

You know, I don't want Sowers. I get a real "Kyle Peterson" feeling from him. No actual evidence or anything to support this, but I would take Adenhart over him at 5.

[scoop53714]

My completly useless prediction is that it will fall like this. Weaver, Verlander, Humber, Neiman and Townsend to Milw.

[nikip43]

I agree with the last name vibe for Sowers, but I have a feeling hes more of a Kenny Peterson for the Green Bay Packers. Kenny was a guy that had nothing amazing about his game but did everything well. He wasn't a power or speed guy, he was a little of both. His real attribute was his technique and consistancy. Thats what Sowers sounds like to me. A guy thats consistantly good. He also doesn't sound like an injury waiting to happen.

[TheRightAnswerInFlushing]

I've danced around saying this for a while, but I will now make my position abundantly clear: jered Weaver is overrated. VERY overrated. His fastball is generally 90-92, and his second and third pitches are barely above major league average. To me, he's Jeremy Guthrie.

 

Also, you cannot really put too much stock in performance at this level. Collegiate baseball is generally agreed to be about equivalent to high A ball. In fact, it's my opinion that it might even be a little worse. More accurately, I think it's between low A ball and high A ball. There are a LOT of pitchers who do well at that level and then get killed at the higher levels because they lack stuff. I think you're going to see that with Weaver. He can get away with 90-92 and two other average to average-plus pitches while playing for Long Beach State, but it's my feeling that, were you to put him on a double-A club this year, he'd get hammered.

[CarolinaTommy]

I don't think many people would agree that college baseball is the equivalent of high-A ball, it's lower than that. However, you are comparing apples and oranges in this case.

 

Check Jeremy Guthrie's numbers at Stanford and then look at Jered Weaver.

 

Jeremy Guthrie - 157.2 IP, 138 H, 36 BB, 136 K, 2.51 ERA

 

Jered Weaver - 64.2 IP, 29 H, 9 BB, 100 K, 0.89 ERA

 

That's a very large difference in regards to production. And if you want to knock on Long Beach State's competition, their strength of schedule ranking is 7th in the country.

 

I don't think many have mentioned this, but while most people, including myself, were saying that Justin Verlander and Jeff Niemann were the tops of this college pitching class, colbyjack rated Jered Weaver #1. I think it is clear that Weaver is seperating himself from the rest of the college pitchers this year. Good call, colby.

[TheRightAnswerInFlushing]

As to Guthrie, Weaver has very similar stuff. He might not have done as well as Weaver in college, but I really don't care all that much about performance at the collegiate level when it comes to pitching prospects. That one guy might have a 1.50 college era while another might have a 4.50 college era really, in my estimation, means nothing in terms of value as a prospect.

 

There are tons of collegiate pitchers who have very good numbers but just can't make it in the high minors or majors. Lenny Dinardo and Aaron Heilmann come to mind. Now, neither of them did quite as well as Weaver has done this year, but both had seasons comparable to what Weaver did last year, and the larger point is that success in college isn't really worth that much. What you look for in collegiate pitchers is stuff and command with, I would say, 75% emphasis on stuff and 25% on command. You don't rank command as high because, unlike stuff, it can be learned and improved to a great degree.

[colbyjack]

What you look for in collegiate pitchers is stuff and command with, I would say, 75% emphasis on stuff and 25% on command. You don't rank command as high because, unlike stuff, it can be learned and improved to a great degree.

 

I couldn't disagree more. Command is just as important as pure stuff, if not more so in some instances. As much as a 99 mph fastball can wow people, I know some people were equally wowed when watching Zack Greinke in high school a few years ago, as he showed command beyond his years.

 

And "learning" command is probably just as easy as "learning" stuff. Yes, I do agree that Verlander & Townsend are more likely to gain more control in the pro's than Weaver is going to add any velocity to his fastball, but that statement is just way too broad for me to accept. Far too often inconsistent pitchers never learn how to control their stuff, stay inconsistent & find themselves out of the game even if they can throw 95 with ease.

 

Also let me point out that "command" can be very different from "control."

 

And you keep making comparisons to Mets prospects in Heilman & now Dinardo. You know what, we don't know if Weaver will be better than either one of those guys, but the stats don't lie. Plus, Weaver has been getting better. Look at what he did last season vs. last summer vs. this season. The bottom like is that he is dominating. Heilman & Dinardo NEVER pitched like Weaver is pitching right now, it's just not a fair comparison. And in Dinardo's case, he got worse between his sophomore & junior year. Some questioned whether he was overused between his sophomore year & Team USA, but the bottom line is that he regressed. And trust me, I really liked both Dinardo & Heilman coming out of college (if you follow along long enough you'll know I have an affinity for lefties).

 

We've had this argument before, and it probably should be moved to it's own thread if you want it to continue. But I think you're on your own on this one flushing. We Brewer fans have seen far too many pitchers with great stuff burn out because they have no clue how to use it.

[igor67]

I'll back Colby on something more like a 50-50 split. It's the Colt Griffin rule. Command encompases control, but includes things like understanding how to pitch effectively. A guy with lvery little stuff or very little in the way of command is a longshot prospect no matter what, the difference being that if by some miracle one learns something he could be very good. To dump on Weaver for only having 3 major leauge average pitches isn't all that great of a critique. Most pitchers are lucky if they have one plus pitch (Jerred's fastball is a plus pitch) and an average one. Weaver has another average pitch to mix in there and with his command does so to great effect.

[nikip43]

I know that baseball is different from basketball, but let me throw this example out there. In 2001 the Memphis Grizzlies drafted Shane Battier with the 6th pick. nbadraft.net rated Battier a 10/10 on "readyness" and only a 7 on "potential." Battier was a 4 year senior and mature beyond his years but doesn't have half the athleticism of your slam dunk champions. The year prior the Atlanta Hawks took Dermarr Johnson with the 6th pick. Johnson was a freshman from Cincinatti who wasn't ready for the league but was taken high because he had a 10/10 on potential but only a 6/10 on readyness.

 

Its almost as if you need to take some of both like the previous post hinted at 50/50. Mateen Cleeves won the championship at Michigan State and was taken 14th overaall. Four years earlier a classic example of potential was taken with the 17th pick by the Trailblazers. Jermaine O'Neal was taken on "tools" and didn't develop until his 5th or 6th year in the league.

 

You need to take some chances on players with high upsides or you'll never have "superstars". However, taking too many high risk/reward type players will end up hurting you. The luck will run out and you'll have a bunch of arms in your organization and a severe lack of pitchers.

[11]

I define "stuff" as having the God-given ability to throw a baseball with ease -- or in otherwords, it's "good arm action" and how your pitching arm naturally works. "He has 'the stuff'."

 

Ever go to a HS field and watch kid's throw a baseball. Most kids throw like their tossing a hand grenade (awkward and labored). Only a very few actually appear like they are comfortable throwing. That is something that is God-given - like the ability to run fast. Yes, both can be improved but only to a degree.

 

No matter how hard I train myself, I will never run a 10 second 100M. Very few people are born with that level of natural ability. Same with a pitchers abililty to throw hard. I could train all my life, but never be able to throw a baseball 100 MPH. However, I could develop the ability to locate. Velocity is a rarer commodity.

 

On the other hand, control is the ability to throw strikes. Command is the ability to locate within the strike zone. Control and command is something that can be developed more profoundly than velocity can be improved. The reason is that C and C are products of solid, below-the-waist mechanics. Balance is probably the most key element but leg lift, stride, foot plant and hip rotation direct where the ball is going to end up. These are things that are teachable and correctable.

 

 

Colt Griffin was a sexy pick because he has the unique ability to throw very, very hard. Was he a bad pick? Who knows? But if you think he was, that has more to do perhaps with KC's individual scouting and player development issues related to Griffin, not that sexy HSer's should be avoided like the plague.

 

I don't understand the comment "the Colt Griffin rule". What is that? Does it apply to the Josh Beckett or Kerrry Wood, too?

 

 

What is more valuable, velocity or command? I think velocity. Yes, you need to throw strikes (control). But you can get away with lesser command with greater velocity, and I believe command is developed. Put plus velocity and command together and you have a front of the rotation pitcher. Do pitchers with average velocity always have pinpoint command on every pitch? NO. Put average velocity and command together and you have...what? Name your favorate Brewer starter...besides Sheets. Do you win a division with a starting rotation "stocked" with #5 starters and long relief guys?

 

People say pitcging help is on the way in the minors. Are those guys 88-91 MPH pitchers with command? Or are they higher ceiling hopefulls with front of the rotation arms? What do the Brewers need in the upcoming draft, more of the former or the latter?