2017 Draft Pick Discussion, Rounds 1-5

[CheezWizHed]

He didn't hold out for $66.66 more?

[JDBrewCrew]

Jim Callis‏Verified account @jimcallisMLB 20s21 seconds ago

Supp 1st-rder Tristen Lutz signs w/@Brewers for $2,352,000 (pick 34=$1,983,600). Texas HS OF, big RH power, hittability & arm too. @MLBDraft

 

Brewers Player Dev‏ @BrewersPD 4s5 seconds ago

Draft signings: Lutz (CB-A) and Harrison (3)

Team Confirmation

[pyrocyz]

I have the brewers at about $500k left over for ward and other post 10th round signees. Does that sound right?

[And That]

Yep, they have about $522k left to spend, which does not count whatever Ward signed for. If Ward signed for $647k, they are tapped out.

[pyrocyz]

I hope they have some money left for layer, etc.

 

nice to get 2 more from that group.

[Austin Tatious]

Happy to hear the Lutz news as I was keeping an eye on that. Good value for where they got him.

 

It harkens me back a bit to Joey Gallo, who I liked coming out of a Vegas high school. Big kid with pop. Gallo does not have the full hit tools that Lutz has, though. But, whereas I was disappointed we didn't pounce on Gallo, we got a nice value pick who can be a middle of the order bat who will still have decent average and also defend well in corner OF spots.

 

Brinson, Phillips, Harrison, and Lutz are some OF guys I absolutely wouldn't move. Let's see it play out with these guys.

 

Plus, I like some of our Latin prospects from the past couple of years. Abreu, Carmona (IF for now), Rodriguez, Ernesto Martinez, Larry Ernesto, Melendez. I hope a couple of those bubble up big time. You get enough lines in the water, and some fish are going to bite.

[CheezWizHed]

You get enough lines in the water, and some fish are going to bite.

 

You also need to fish in the right waters and with big enough bait. We had many lines in the water in years past, but we were using waxies three feet from shore. All we caught were baby sunfish. Time to go after some muskies!

[BallFour]

Yep, they have about $522k left to spend, which does not count whatever Ward signed for. If Ward signed for $647k, they are tapped out.

 

Don't forget they signed another HS player 23rd round pick Cam Robinson, so who knows how much the Brewers will have leftover, can't be much.

[Austin Tatious]

You get enough lines in the water, and some fish are going to bite.

 

You also need to fish in the right waters and with big enough bait. We had many lines in the water in years past, but we were using waxies three feet from shore. All we caught were baby sunfish. Time to go after some muskies!

 

Lol nice.

[MrTPlush]

You get enough lines in the water, and some fish are going to bite.

 

You also need to fish in the right waters and with big enough bait. We had many lines in the water in years past, but we were using waxies three feet from shore. All we caught were baby sunfish. Time to go after some muskies!

 

That was the most Wisconsin thing I have seen on this forum in a long time.

[reillymcshane]

Well, the Lutz signing is good news. It was more than I anticipated - but getting him signed is the most important thing.

[CheezWizHed]

You get enough lines in the water, and some fish are going to bite.

 

You also need to fish in the right waters and with big enough bait. We had many lines in the water in years past, but we were using waxies three feet from shore. All we caught were baby sunfish. Time to go after some muskies!

 

That was the most Wisconsin thing I have seen on this forum in a long time.

 

Complement accepted. I wear my cheesehead with pride.

[ZBTMP]

The Brewers signed the most high school picks and left the 3rd least amount of money on the table according to here. Thier table seems to have missed Koenig, Bradshaw, Crochet, Jacobsen, and Kaufman so Im not positive to its accuracy.

[Austin Tatious]

As others have said, I like the way they handled those double digit round picks, going for more upside with high school guys. It may not be the type of thing you do every year, but it fits our circumstances now. We have plenty of organizational depth where we've drafted the Trey Yorks, Dustin DeMuths, and Blake Allemands of the world. You pool your money on higher upside high schoolers and hope you hit a lottery ticket or two.

 

And, sure, we signed everyone but if somebody like Lemons or, God forbid, Lutz didn't sign, you could throw money at a Campbell (who we didn't get) as a backup plan.

[ZBTMP]

My hope is it is based on a deeper analysis and not necessarily Minasian saying he could use some 18 year olds. I’m not opposed to it being an annual strategy. Collectively, as competitive as MLB baseball and amateur scouting, you’d presume that organizations are getting better at identifying talents and earlier. They seem to be getting better at managing bonus pools too. That would mean less talents are getting to the college game every year. So shifting to getting players younger makes sense if you feel like you have a strong system of identifying traits that correlate to success.

Obviously, this is coming from my thoughts and not backed by any hard data, but it seems reasonable.

Take Jordan Yamamoto. Katoh’s flawed but unbiased projection system had him at 2.2 WAR coming into this season (and I doubt he has diminished that much). That would be top 15 in all of NCAA and likely at least a 3rd round pick. Does his scouting report really read all that much different than Alex Lange’s?

Yamamoto has obviously worked out better than say Gentry Fortuno, and Mike Fiers and Brandon Woodruff show good college players and can still be had late, but if the Brewers have data showing high school players rated 200+ sign rate+breakout rate is exceeding college players rated 200+, why not?

[And That]

And, sure, we signed everyone but if somebody like Lemons or, God forbid, Lutz didn't sign, you could throw money at a Campbell (who we didn't get) as a backup plan.

Yes and no. If Lutz/Lemons don't sign, their bonus slot pool money goes away.

[Austin Tatious]

Thanks for the clarification. Some of these rules can be confusing for fans.

[Noche]

As we wait for the top of the hour....knowing what we know today....you taking Keston Hiura or Jo Adell in a 2017 redraft?

 

Keston

 

Jo

[And That]

I'd still take Hiura. Adell is fascinating, but still has a much higher chance to flame out at some point. Given that Hiura is still more of a sure thing, and a really good sure thing at that, the pick is the same.