2017 Draft Pick Discussion, Rounds 1-5

[Humans Need Water]

This notion that the Brewers brass randomly drafted this kid without being VERY informed as to his medical situation seems very strange to me. Likewise, the idea that the Brewers brass are a bunch of bumbling idiots that, after acquiring even more medical information, are just going to throw him on the field to play despite an obvious need for surgery is equally strange.

 

They looked at the medicals and re-examined the kid after the draft. If they say the elbow is good, then the elbow is good. Even so, they are not taking that for granted. They have clearly stated that he is going to start with a throwing program in Maryvale before going on. Unless one is a M.D. AND one has reviewed the medicals, then one has nothing more than conjecture to conclude future issues.

The same medical staff that went along with Thornburg not having surgery...

 

I'm aware a 2b won't throw as much or as hard as a pitcher, but a 2b will have many more opportunities to throw at awkward angles without proper form, which is just as dangerous as a pitching, if not more because they are not keeping their arms warm like pitchers do.

 

Like I said, I hope I'm wrong, but I am in favor of taking the most cautious approach in these situations. MRI's aren't perfect for reading how the injury is, actually doing an exploratory is a lot more sure fire way of ensuring it's healed properly.

Regarding the highlighted part of your comment, what percent of 2b have elbow injuries due to throwing at awkward angles compared to pitchers? Do pitchers all throw from the same arm slot or do they range from over the top to submarine? Do 2b throw secondary pitches across the diamond that put more stress on their elbow/shoulder?

 

How exactly do 2b not keep their arms warm during games? These guys throw nonstop. Before BP, during IF drills (during BP), directly prior to the game and between every inning. A 2b, or any IF for that matter, throwing fourseamers from a variety of arm angles isn't anywhere near close to being more strenuous on the elbow/shoulder than what a pitcher does on the mound. And the overwhelming majority of IF throws are when they're fully set whether they're throwing across the diamond or flicking the wrist for a force out.

 

The Brewers said upon speaking with the Drs that he doesn't need surgery. Where did you hear that the decision was made solely based on a MRI? I would be shocked if a MLB team's medial team (more than 1 Dr) solely looked at a MRI and didn't perform a comprehensive exam. Even if the outcome changes moving forward and surgery is required the recovery isn't anywhere near close to that of a pitcher - he can have it at season's end and be ready to go by April. In the meantime he can DH to stay in the lineup while also taking grounders and doing other glove work without throwing.

[LouisEly]

You cannot force anyone to have surgery. Players always have the last say as to whether or not they have surgery.

[reillymcshane]

Watch for Lutz and Harrison to sign soon.

[And That]

Caden Lemons has officially signed - tweet includes signing bonus.

[reillymcshane]

Brewers should end up with about $1.2M to play with for the guys drafted 11-18 that remain unsigned/uncommitted.

[Bnowell4evr]

Brewers should end up with about $1.2M to play with for the guys drafted 11-18 that remain unsigned/uncommitted.

 

Does that include the 100K we can offer without going into our bonus pools?

[And That]

That's over and above the $125k that can be offered to each pick.

[brewmann04]

Quick question what guys below 10 should we watch out for them to target.

[82brewcrew82]

Brewers should end up with about $1.2M to play with for the guys drafted 11-18 that remain unsigned/uncommitted.

 

Does that include the 100K we can offer without going into our bonus pools?

 

And what about the taxable/non-taxable overage?

[82brewcrew82]

Quick question what guys below 10 should we watch out for them to target.

 

I'm sure they'll target all of them, how many they can sign is another question all together.

[trwi7]

I'm sure they'll throw a boatload of money at all of them and whoever takes it first, gets it.

[Noche]

I'm sure they'll throw a boatload of money at all of them and whoever takes it first, gets it.

 

Uh no. I'm sure they have a much more detailed plan than that.

[ZBTMP]

A quick peruse of the BA rankings gives me this:

Bullock -203

Castillo -232

Ward -233

Santana -264

Morales -469

Unless they are bluffing for leverage or have a sudden teenage change of heart:

Campbell -111

Jacobsen -154

Im sure these rankings don’t mirror the Brewers internally (ex: they probably like Lazar as a top 500 prospect to take him in round 11), but I’m sure some combination of rankings, draft round, strength of commitment, etc. will drive how the Brewers approach signing them. I'd speculate that figure out what the bonus is for that pick #, add 30-40% and that probably gets you to the ballpark.

[82brewcrew82]

I'm sure they'll throw a boatload of money at all of them and whoever takes it first, gets it.

 

Uh no. I'm sure they have a much more detailed plan than that.

 

We have read some pretty concrete examples of teams being in contact with players before they draft them. We know they discuss how much it is going to take to sign the player. I also know that at 18 I had zero interest in college. If someone had offered me a quarter million (plus paying for my college later if I wanted to go), I would have jumped at the chance. I'm sure I'm not unique in that.

 

None of those kids in the 11-18 round range have declared they absolutely will not sign (to my knowledge). That would seem to indicate they are at least open to the idea of signing. I don't know if they have the cash to sign all of them but I'd bet the Brewers think they do. I'm skeptical but I was skeptical last year too and they signed almost all of the kids who did not immediately declare they would not sign.

[reillymcshane]

I'm just guessing, but I don't know if there is any player unsigned (not counting the guys who have firmly said they are going to college) that we'd throw a ton of money at. Je'Von Ward is probably the most interesting player - but his ranking of around 200 (he was #233 by BA and #194 by MLP Pipeline) would have netted him around $220,000 if he had actually been picked in that slot.

 

So I'm just guessing that the team is going to sign several of these guys - but not for $1M or anything. It'll be $300,000 here, $200,000 there, etc.

 

Of course, all bets are off if Campbell or Jacobsen show a willingness to sign.

[82brewcrew82]

I'm just guessing, but I don't know if there is any player unsigned (not counting the guys who have firmly said they are going to college) that we'd throw a ton of money at. Je'Von Ward is probably the most interesting player - but his ranking of around 200 (he was #233 by BA and #194 by MLP Pipeline) would have netted him around $220,000 if he had actually been picked in that slot.

 

So I'm just guessing that the team is going to sign several of these guys - but not for $1M or anything. It'll be $300,000 here, $200,000 there, etc.

 

Of course, all bets are off if Campbell or Jacobsen show a willingness to sign.

 

THIS is the post I've been waiting for. So if your theory is correct, I would assume we sign the majority of those guys in the teen rounds.

 

I'm guessing, then, that McClanahan had a much higher grade than where he was drafted at to command that amount of a bonus last year? So these guys would be more Payton Henry than Chad McClanahan.

[LouisEly]

My guess is that they'll target three guys with $500K each ($1.2M/3 = $400K plus the $125K), unless they think they can get Campbell for $1.3M.

 

My bets are Layer, Morales, and one or both of Ward/Castillo.

[reillymcshane]

I'm just guessing, but I don't know if there is any player unsigned (not counting the guys who have firmly said they are going to college) that we'd throw a ton of money at. Je'Von Ward is probably the most interesting player - but his ranking of around 200 (he was #233 by BA and #194 by MLP Pipeline) would have netted him around $220,000 if he had actually been picked in that slot.

 

So I'm just guessing that the team is going to sign several of these guys - but not for $1M or anything. It'll be $300,000 here, $200,000 there, etc.

 

Of course, all bets are off if Campbell or Jacobsen show a willingness to sign.

 

THIS is the post I've been waiting for. So if your theory is correct, I would assume we sign the majority of those guys in the teen rounds.

 

I'm guessing, then, that McClanahan had a much higher grade than where he was drafted at to command that amount of a bonus last year? So these guys would be more Payton Henry than Chad McClanahan.

 

McClanahan was ranked #122 by MLB Pipeline last year. I don't know what other places ranked him, but on that ranking he is on par with Campbell. So the other guys on the list - like Ward - are probably not going to get as much as McClanahan (who got $1.2M).

 

I don't know if McClanahan's ranking was affected by his reported strong commitment to Arizona St. - but I don't think that's how it works. But we definitely paid him well to forego his college commitment.

[82brewcrew82]

I bet they sign five or better.

[LouisEly]

Rankings don't necessarily correlate to what a kid will sign for. If you have a kid from a family that's not very well-off, it's harder for that kid and his family to pass up a couple hundred thousand dollars (plus college paid for down the road) versus a kid from an upper-middle class family. Also depends on how good of a student the kid is. If the kid doesn't really like school or has learning challenges, it might not take as much to sign him versus a kid with a 3.9 GPA.

[JDBrewCrew]

Where was it confirmed that Harrison signed? I see he's bolded in the signings thread.

[And That]

I don't think I did that - no, I haven't seen or heard of any confirmation. He's been un-bolded.

[reillymcshane]

Where was it confirmed that Harrison signed? I see he's bolded in the signings thread.

I have heard from a source that Harrison and Lutz have agreed to deals. At or near slot. Assumes no issues with physicals or someone has second thoughts.

[JDBrewCrew]

Adam McCalvy‏Verified account @AdamMcCalvy 1m1 minute ago

Adam McCalvy Retweeted Landoc

Just asked David Stearns about Lutz, drafted No. 34 overall. No deal yet, but he anticipates more signings before the deadline on Friday.

[And That]

KJ Harrison has signed for full slot value of $666,600.