2017 Draft Pick Discussion, Rounds 1-5

[82brewcrew82]

If you put all your faith in a single scouting report.

 

Well sure but the single scouting report that he put up was a single sentence that only praises the player while leaving out the part that actually has legitimate concerns about the player. Why not just put the whole thing up instead of just the sunshine and puppies part?

 

Yeah, but he also included that he was going to need a lot of work. I don't think anyone would have been under the impression that we stumbled upon some sure thing in the fifth round.

[MrTPlush]

If you put all your faith in a single scouting report.

 

Well sure but the single scouting report that he put up was a single sentence that only praises the player while leaving out the part that actually has legitimate concerns about the player. Why not just put the whole thing up instead of just the sunshine and puppies part?

 

I mentioned he looked like a ton of work. I don't particularily like to post word for word the negatives because those tend to vary a lot more. For instance the debacle with Hiura. One quote and suddenly he has no defensive home and can't play 2nd base. Which was not the most accurate. Not to mention it is the 5th round. At this point most players are covered in mud with a little shiney spot on them. I find this thread to be more reactionary and not after a ton of research is done. So it makes sense to hit on the things that made us draft him (his power). Not saying you don't mention the downsides I just decided not to do it word for word.

[trwi7]

This swing looks brutal.

 

[82brewcrew82]

This swing looks brutal.

 

What do you expect in the 5th round. I'll take a chance on a player with a 60 grade anything in round 5.

[Austin Tatious]

I like the KJ Harrison pick. I've been interested in amateur catchers for a couple of years, so I've been researching future possibilities given Lucroy's status as a trade candidate during that time. Harrison was a top of mind name that kept coming up. I think he's well worth his draft position and if he reverts to catcher, it could be an absolute steal. He was taken right around where Lucroy was taken.

[monty57]

We have a strong farm, so I like that we're getting some high-upside high schoolers. No need to sacrifice upside for guys who will "shoot to the majors quickly"

[MrTPlush]

This swing looks brutal.

 

 

Slowing it down it doesn't look that bad. Real time it looks horrid because he is swinging at bad pitches which obviously doesn't bring out the best swing in you.

[MrTPlush]

This swing looks brutal.

 

 

Slowing it down it doesn't look that bad. Real time it looks horrid because he is swinging at bad pitches which obviously doesn't bring out the best swing in you.

[And That]

Remember beginning with round 6, please start using the rounds 6-20 thread.

[iKezims]

Egnatuk, Nick Immaculata HS 3B R/R HS

 

"A high school infielder, Egnatuk wows scouts in batting practice with 60-grade raw power" MLB.com

 

Sounds like a piece of work though so don't expect to see him any time soon. Drafted for the power.

 

Why not put the rest of it up there?

 

but he hits a lot of ground balls during games. He's struggled against good pitching, and a bulky body might require him to move to left field at the next level. But the potential to put the ball out of the ballpark is there.

 

Takes a ton of shine off of the pick.

 

A fifth round flier on a raw power prospect. What kind of shine are you looking for here?

[brwrsfan]

Egnatuk, Nick Immaculata HS 3B R/R HS

 

"A high school infielder, Egnatuk wows scouts in batting practice with 60-grade raw power" MLB.com

 

Sounds like a piece of work though so don't expect to see him any time soon. Drafted for the power.

 

Why not put the rest of it up there?

 

but he hits a lot of ground balls during games. He's struggled against good pitching, and a bulky body might require him to move to left field at the next level. But the potential to put the ball out of the ballpark is there.

 

Takes a ton of shine off of the pick.

 

A fifth round flier on a raw power prospect. What kind of shine are you looking for here?

 

I think his point had nothing to do with the player themselves, just that only part of the scouting report was given. He has huge power, which is great, but there's more to the report.

 

If I had just said "He's poor against better pitchers and hits too many ground balls". That obviously is only half the story. I think that was his point.

[Mass Haas]

Brewers select Immaculata's Nick Egnatuk in MLB Draft

Greg Tufaro, MyCentralJersey.com

 

Quotes from his dad, high school AD, and prospective coach at Pitt...

[paul253]

I'm not a big fan of the first three picks. Hiura can hit but where is going to play? And is he going to hit well enough to overcome his, im guessing, negative defensive value? At 9th overall I guess I'd have preferred a more complete player. And what's with his injury? I'm hearing Tommy John being thrown around? If so they better do it right away so he doesn't lose an entire season down the line. If he does it right now he could DH the first half of next year then figure out where he's going to play.

 

Lutz I can live with. Not thrilled with passing on pitching for an outfielder.....again....but the talent and upside seem there.

 

The Lemons pick I don't understand. There were seemingly so many more pitchers deserving of being picked there (Carlson, Canning, Crowe, Heatherly, to name a few) Second round seems awfully high to be drafting a guy that apparently needs so much work. Plus I'd guess he could have been had with their next pick

 

The KJ Harrison pick I really like, especially if he can stick at catcher. I'm a little concerned with another guy with defensive questions but in the third round an advanced bat who might be able to play catcher is a good get.

 

Murphy I like a lot. Good get with a HS lefty who can hopefully add a tick or two to his fastball and refine his breaking ball

 

Egnatuk I know zero about (not that I know much about any of the other guys) but he seems like a guy who was picked to sign underslot. Hopefully he'll work out but who knows.

 

Overall I'm not thrilled but I suppose it could be worse. I don't think they did enough to address their pitching woes but I'm not an expert so that's just an opinion. I think they could have gotten a guy with #2 upside and another with #3 upside. For us, that would be big. Oh well.

[clancyphile]

Just read the synopsis, seems many doubt he can stick at catcher, more like a 1B...hit tool is why he's drafted. Brewers going with the Cubs draft mantra a little here?

 

That isn't really true. It is more no one really knows if he can or not because he hasn't played there that much since his freshman year.

 

What's the likelihood that he'll stick behind the plate if he was moved from Catcher in college? (not flaming, asking seriously for your thoughts, I know almost nothing about him).

 

From what PerfectGame said in the DRaft Picks thread...

A catcher by nature, Harrison hasn’t seen a lot of reps behind the plate, due mostly to the presence of ’16 third rounder Logan Ice and current freshman Adley Rutschman, but his tools at the catcher positon are intriguing even though he’s spent most of his time at first base, where he’s a solid defender in his own right. He has solid arm strength and his footwork on throw downs is clean, but the blocking skills and overall lateral agility raise some question marks, as does the projectability of his receiving skills.

 

My inclination would be to put him behind the plate and see if he can catch.

[clancyphile]

I'm not a big fan of the first three picks. Hiura can hit but where is going to play? And is he going to hit well enough to overcome his, im guessing, negative defensive value? At 9th overall I guess I'd have preferred a more complete player. And what's with his injury? I'm hearing Tommy John being thrown around? If so they better do it right away so he doesn't lose an entire season down the line. If he does it right now he could DH the first half of next year then figure out where he's going to play.

 

Lutz I can live with. Not thrilled with passing on pitching for an outfielder.....again....but the talent and upside seem there.

 

The Lemons pick I don't understand. There were seemingly so many more pitchers deserving of being picked there (Carlson, Canning, Crowe, Heatherly, to name a few) Second round seems awfully high to be drafting a guy that apparently needs so much work. Plus I'd guess he could have been had with their next pick

 

The KJ Harrison pick I really like, especially if he can stick at catcher. I'm a little concerned with another guy with defensive questions but in the third round an advanced bat who might be able to play catcher is a good get.

 

Murphy I like a lot. Good get with a HS lefty who can hopefully add a tick or two to his fastball and refine his breaking ball

 

Egnatuk I know zero about (not that I know much about any of the other guys) but he seems like a guy who was picked to sign underslot. Hopefully he'll work out but who knows.

 

Overall I'm not thrilled but I suppose it could be worse. I don't think they did enough to address their pitching woes but I'm not an expert so that's just an opinion. I think they could have gotten a guy with #2 upside and another with #3 upside. For us, that would be big. Oh well.

 

I like Hiura, and thin the Brewers should get him in the lineup every day - try him at SS, 2B, 3B, LF, CF... the bat is that good. If Arcia can't get it together offensively... why not have Hiura take that spot?

 

Lutz... I like, from the reports. He's got power, he's refined somewhat as a hitter. Might surprise a lot of folks.

 

Lemons - could be real high-ceiling. This one's a roll of the dice, but at 46, and given the history of the Brewers really struggling since 2000 to hit with picks, why not roll the dice on a guy with a fastball hitting 97?

 

Harrison - If he catches, he's awesome. It looks as if he didn't get reps, and may be rusty. Even so, with that bat, I'd keep him behind the plate.

 

Murphy - Could be intriguing...

 

Egnatuk - I'm intrigued by the raw power. Maybe a 3TO bat?

 

Hairston - I see a future Hernan Perez here

 

Francis - I think this could be a steal. His fastball is also topping at 97.

 

Rose - Another potential steal - only with four pitches that he uses well. Maybe get him to throw a splitter or cutter as well?

 

Carroll - I get a Cirillo/Garrett Cooper vibe from him.

[LouisEly]

What really surprises me about the picks in the first five rounds is the hitters, specifically that they all hit RH. Stearns definitely values balance in the order and has specifically made moves to have more LH/RH balance. While they did go LH heavy the last two years (Ray, Erceg, Clark), it's harder to find LH hitters than RH.

 

The thing that I wonder about the most with HS players is what kind of coaching have they had up to this point? Even kids who play on premium travel teams and in showcases, you know there are much better coaches in the pros. Even college - they are not finished products by any stretch because college coaches are trying to win games, not develop players. They still bunt guys over from 1st to 2nd.

[Mass Haas]

Via the Chicago Tribune --

 

Mundelein's Brendan Murphy has made several trips to Milwaukee's Miller Park with his friends.

 

The senior left-hander might get to pitch there one day for the Brewers.

 

Murphy was drafted Tuesday by the Milwaukee Brewers in the fourth round, 114th overall.

 

"I was beyond excited," Murphy said. "I couldn't stop walking around. I was so happy. It's a dream come true."

 

Murphy, an Arizona State recruit, was one of two players with Lake County-area ties selected during the second day of the Major League Baseball draft. The 114th pick has a slot value of $468,600 for a signing bonus.

 

Murphy had a 9-1 record with a 1.99 ERA and 91 strikeouts as a senior this season for the Mustangs.

 

"We feel like he's going to continue to get stronger and add some velocity," Brewers scouting director Tod Johnson said, according to Milwaukee's MLB.com. "He's already got good feel for a northern kid. We were pretty excited to add him where we did."

 

Murphy said he was getting anxious and did some laundry during the day. He went to brush his teeth when he received a text that the Brewers were a possibility.

 

Shortly after getting drafted, Murphy made a trip to the high school to visit friends at a baseball camp.

 

He also stopped by the home of Mundelein coach Todd Parola.

 

"I couldn't sit still," Murphy said. "I was so happy and excited. I needed to get out and about."

 

Murphy is still weighing his options whether to go pro or head to Arizona State.

 

"I'm still looking at the pros and cons of both and ultimately will decide what's best for my family and I," Murphy said. "I'm excited for this next step. It's truly a dream come true. I'm really looking forward to it"

 

Milwaukee's close proximity is a bonus. Murphy also noticed that Milwaukee's low Class A affiliate is a relatively short drive away in Appleton, Wis.

 

"It's going to be cool," Murphy said. "I've looked at the locations of their minor league affiliates and they have a team in Wisconsin. Maybe next year or two years, if I'm playing A ball, it will be close to home so I can have family come and watch me.

 

"It will be really fun. I'm really excited to see how it all plays out and what they have for me next and what's the next step."

 

Murphy grew up rooting for the Cubs.

 

"But now I'm a Brewers fan," Murphy said. "It's just exciting."

[pogokat]

here's a super fluffy piece on Caden lemons, who, it turns out, is from the same neighborhood I spent age 10-18 in---we played at the same little league, although, im old now:

http://www.ledger-enquirer.com/sports/mlb/article155978354.html

 

Pat Jackson Bass was one happy grandmother Tuesday.

 

The Columbus woman was celebrating the selection of her grandson in the second round of the Major League Baseball Draft. Caden Lemons, a right-handed pitcher from Vestavia Hills High School near Birmingham, was taken with the 46th overall pick by the Milwaukee Brewers.

 

Lemons started his baseball career in Columbus, playing at Northern Little League before the family moved to Vestavia Hills when he was 11.

 

“I have talked to him a couple of times today, and he’s happy,” Bass said.

 

She said they have been laughing about a story that happened when he was a 7- or 8-year-old player at Northern.

 

“One of the parents said, ‘We’re going to see him playing for the Braves one day after he caught everything that was hit,” she said. “I was taking him home after that game and he asked me, ‘Ga Ga, do you think I am going to play for Braves? I told him sure. He said when he did he was going to buy me a big Cadillac. We still laugh about that.”

 

Longtime Northern Little League Coach Randy Morris remembers Lemons as a youngster in ‘A’ ball.

 

“I remember I wanted to draft him, but by the time I got a pick he was already gone,” said Morris, who has taken two teams to the Little League World Series and won it in 2006. “I know he played ‘A’ ball one year with us as a 10 year old, then they moved. And a 10-year-old in ‘A’ ball is only going to be so good.”

 

Morris believes that Lemons, who had signed with Ole Miss, might be the highest draft choice to come out of Northern Little League, one of the nation’s top programs.

 

“It all starts here,” Morris said of Little League. “I guarantee you we will claim him.”

 

The Brewers see a lot of potential with the 6-foot-6 Lemons and a wicked fastball that has been clocked in the upper 90s, Brewers scouting director Tod Johnson told MLB.com.

 

“Super exciting,” Johnson said. “He's lean, lanky, really quick arm, really good fastball, developing secondary. We saw a lot of his starts. … This guy has a ton of upside.”

 

Lemons is the son of Missy and Donnie Lemons, both Columbus natives.

 

“I know the whole family,” Morris said. “They are a great family and this couldn’t happen to nicer people.”

 

Chuck Williams: 706-571-8510, @chuckwilliams

 

Caden Lemons, who played Little League baseball for Northern in Columbus, caught the eye of pro scouts at Vestavia Hills High School.

Caden Lemons, who played Little League baseball for Northern in Columbus, caught the eye of pro scouts at Vestavia Hills High School. Special to the Ledger-Enquirer

[Mass Haas]

Brewers select Immaculata's Nick Egnatuk in MLB Draft

Greg Tufaro, MyCentralJersey.com

 

Quotes from his dad, high school AD, and prospective coach at Pitt...

 

Another article --

 

"If the offer is right, I will forgo college," Egnatuk said Tuesday. "I know college could help you develop, but at the end of the day it doesn't put you one step closer to the major leagues and that's always been my goal."

 

Greg Egnatuk, Nick's father, said there will be a Tuesday night conference call with the Brewers and Egnatuk's advisor, Joe Gaza.

 

"After the draft is done Tuesday, we will all get on a conference call," Greg Egnatuk said. "We will have a better idea what's going on after that."

[reillymcshane]

Just saw that Enlow is going to get $2M from the Twins. That's about $1.3M over slot. The Twins reportedly agreed to a deal with the top pick, Lewis, for $1M under the $7.7M slot - so that's where they got the extra cash.

 

http://m.twins.mlb.com/news/article/236268358/twins-expect-to-sign-blayne-enlow/

[PlayerHader]

Egnatuk looks like he has his right back on his front heel rather than on the instep/toes. Tough to hit consistently when you have a poor launch position. Definitely a lot of work to be done in that swing.

[PlayerHader]

Egnatuk looks like he has his weight back on his front heel rather than on the instep/toes. Tough to hit consistently when you have a poor launch position. Definitely a lot of work to be done in that swing.

[Eye Black]

I really like Hiura's bat but the defensive aspect really worries me. If I'm gambling with a player's glove this early in the draft it would have to be someone who projects to be a real masher...someone with 35-40 home run power like Prince Fielder or (on the flip side) Matt LaPorta. Hiura will likely hit, could prove to be a doubles machine, but could be one of those guys that has an offensive WAR of 4.0 that get's played down to a 2.0 if the defense isn't there. If he can't stick at second base I think it will be really hard to justify a #9 pick, hopefully either the defense won't be a problem and/or he'll end up having more pop in his bat than I am anticipating.

Just catching up on some of the draft commentary and posts from earlier and this caught my attention.

 

Honest question here, how bad does a second baseman have to be to lose 2.0 WAR in value based on defensive deficiencies? The worst regular second baseman in MLB last season by most defensive measures appears to be Roughend Odor, and in 150 games last season he finished with a -0.5 dWAR which coupled with position value appears to have pulled his overall WAR down by 0.9. Looked back at a few more examples of second baseman that put up poor defensive season. Daniel Murphy's 2013 season seems to be something fairly close to the example you are describing. Still with most other examples I could find even the worst defensive second baseman appear to drag their WAR down between 0.5-1.0 WAR much more often than anything approaching 2.0. I am not an expert on defensive WAR's impact on overall WAR so I would be interested to see additional commentary or examples. I couldn't find many parallels among current second baseman, but maybe I didn't look at the right players.

 

One thought, is it possible that we are a little skewed by watching post-2011 Rickie Weeks put up some of the worst statistical defensive seasons for a second baseman in recent history? Despite also being a poor defender prior to the ankle injury Weeks never had a season where his defense drug his value down by >2 WAR until post-injury in 2012 when he moved like a lamp post with a glove. Obviously Braun also had a terrible defensive WAR season in his rookie year at 3B, but overall those type of seasons look to be the exception among major league position players.

 

I know the defense for Hiura is a big question right now, but I will be a little surprised if he ends up being a significant defensive liability. For what it is worth it also sounds like he was still participating in fielding drills at second base in practice and warm-ups in front of scouts, just without throwing the ball.

[CheezWizHed]

Just saw that Enlow is going to get $2M from the Twins. That's about $1.3M over slot. The Twins reportedly agreed to a deal with the top pick, Lewis, for $1M under the $7.7M slot - so that's where they got the extra cash.

 

http://m.twins.mlb.com/news/article/236268358/twins-expect-to-sign-blayne-enlow/

 

An interesting example to those complaining about the possibility that the Brewers would "settle" on a lesser talent to sign him underslot. Lewis' pick was a bit of a surprise, but no one is really complaining that he wasn't first pick worthy. In fact, seems like most people had 5 players that could've been considered at #1.

 

So by making a deal with one of those, the Twins added another 1st round talent in the 3rd round.

 

Given the low, low hit rate on MLB draft picks making the majors, having more is better. The TT drafting strategy works at the MLB level too, its just trickier to make happen.

[patrickgpe]

I don't understand all the worries about signability. Teams are well aware of what each players numbers are. They understand chances of them signing. Too much to lose as Plush said if you aren't able to. Money is just gone. Once we get to round 11, that's were teams start to grab some of those guys with strong commitment & hope they saved enough pool money to sign them away as we did last year with McClanahan.

 

I'd expect a few seniors coming in the near rounds to collect more savings. Harrison should receive close to slot.

i saw yesterday that only 2 players last season didn't sign that were drafted in the top 10 rounds. teams know who they can sign and for about how much before this process starts. They know if a player is going to require overslot, under, or at. I am no MLB draft expert, but i have learned that you need to look at the top 10 as a hole, since its a giant puzzle and not based on best player available at each pick in all 10 rounds.