2017 Draft Pick Discussion, Rounds 1-5

[82brewcrew82]

So now that the picks are over for today...anyone I should hope for tomorrow? Seen some people wanting to take a shot with Tristan Beck, looks like he could maybe be there for our pick.

 

Anyone else? Anyone sitting there that one of you really want??

 

Enlow and Heatherly come into mind.

 

I'd add Allen, Skoug, and Beck to that list.

[Jenkins5]

Enlow must have major signability issues. One of my favorite pitchers in the draft due to him reminding a good amount of my favorite prep pitcher last year, Braxton Garrett.

 

I think Beck is probably dropping to point he where he will be back for junior season to rebuild stock & play with his little brother.

[Eye Black]

I didn't ask as a means of comparison. I just thought maybe some of those guys would still be available and along with Enlow and Stephens, it looks like Heatherly, Beck, and Scherff are still available at least. Maybe one to two of those picks make it through the first eight picks tomorrow?

I forgot about Enlow as well. I know the Scout guys are also pretty high on sophomore Arkansas RHP Blaine Knight who rose up draft boards this spring. To your point it seems likely that some solid pitching options should be available early on tomorrow.

[ecjimg]

The Baseball America guys on their post draft podcast are saying that the Cubs have been drafting pitchers based on organizational depth. Soooo, I guess it does happen. Or they are wrong.

[82brewcrew82]

I didn't ask as a means of comparison. I just thought maybe some of those guys would still be available and along with Enlow and Stephens, it looks like Heatherly, Beck, and Scherff are still available at least. Maybe one to two of those picks make it through the first eight picks tomorrow?

I forgot about Enlow as well. I know the Scout guys are also pretty high on sophomore Arkansas RHP Blaine Knight who rose up draft boards this spring. To your point it seems likely that some solid pitching options should be available early on tomorrow.

 

Look, sometimes this board gets carried away with who should have been picked where and whatnot. We think we know because we see some stats, see a start on tv or two and a couple of youtube videos. The fact is the Brewers have been tracking, watching and evaluating these kids for years. They have seen them play live multiple times by multiple people. They have interviewed them, their coaches and their families. They have analytics we can't even comprehend. The sheer amount of time and effort that goes into evaluating any one player is mind boggling.

 

Maybe that player busts, maybe that player is marginal, maybe that player becomes a star. Who knows, but the Brewers are not the only club that goes through that process. Half the picks in the second round could be considered reaches or risky even by conservative standards. I, for one, am excited to see the new talent in the system perform. I'll save my judgements of that talent in due time as we all will.

[Eye Black]

For the record I don't think I was getting carried away or being overly negative about the pick (or at least I certainly wasn't trying to give that impression). I am well aware of the oceans of information every one of these front offices have that we don't. I also don't hate the pick by any means. My original point regarding Lemons was that he appears to be (in my opinion on admittedly only video looks) a little earlier on the development curve than some of other pitchers being drafted around him. No question about the ceiling, but also no question that there is a long ways to go. I absolutely hope the Brewers develop him into a quality major league pitcher.

[trwi7]

Look, sometimes this board gets carried away with who should have been picked where and whatnot. We think we know because we see some stats, see a start on tv or two and a couple of youtube videos. The fact is the Brewers have been tracking, watching and evaluating these kids for years. They have seen them play live multiple times by multiple people. They have interviewed them, their coaches and their families. They have analytics we can't even comprehend. The sheer amount of time and effort that goes into evaluating any one player is mind boggling.

 

Maybe that player busts, maybe that player is marginal, maybe that player becomes a star. Who knows, but the Brewers are not the only club that goes through that process. Half the picks in the second round could be considered reaches or risky even by conservative standards. I, for one, am excited to see the new talent in the system perform. I'll save my judgements of that talent in due time as we all will.

 

I mean, the Brewers have been pretty terrible at drafting for a while. I think people can certainly express their opinion on why they didn't think a certain player was the right pick over a player they wanted.

[DHonks]

Good grief. We complain about high upside pitching and then complain when they go after it.

Not difficult to be worried about someone who can never/ever repeat a delivery.

 

what a ridiculous comment. He's 18 and learning. That's what the minors are for. Randy Johnson had inconsistent mechanics his first several big league seasons. Weren't JM Gold and Mike Jones known for their clean, effortless deliveries? Mark Rogers' athleticism as a 4-sport letter winner were supposed to help him repeat his mechanics and avoid injuries.

[CheeseheadInQC]

I don't know if it is just how the signability issues have played out this year or if this is a common occurrence and I just never paid attention to the distribution before, but it seems like a hitter-heavy draft so far with not only more of the hitters going but a heavy number of the "best available" guys on most of the lists who have fallen being pitchers.

[wildcat2237]

The Brewers picks pretty much make me want to puke. Here are my thoughts:

 

1. Hiura - I know many are high on his hit tool. I don't see it. To me, his ceiling is an MLB average second baseman. I would compare him to Rob Refsnyder or Kolton Wong. Decent player but I don't see All-Star potential. I agree with those who see him moving through the system fast and I would have liked him at pick #20+. However, I dont like him in the top 10.

 

2. Lutz - He looks like a football player. I might even compare his body type to Mike Trout, but that is where the comparison to Trout ends. He doesn't have anythwere near the athleticism of Trout. Moreover, I believe his swing is a mess and needs completely reworked.

 

3. Lemons - I actually don't hate this pick. However, my big question is whether his recent velocity tick from 91 to 97 is for real. My big concern is that he upped his velocity without adding much weight. Either way, he is likely 5 years from the bigs. Lots of time to add weight and hammer out the delivery.

 

I hope I'm proven very wrong about Hiura and Lutz. However, I feel the same as I did in 2011 and 2012 with Gray and Gallo, respectively. The Astros got a damn good pitcher at 15. The Pirates and Marlins also did very well with Baz and Rogers at 12 and 13.

[MrTPlush]

I don't have a problem with any of the Brewers picks really. Hiura seems like a legit bat, but if he can't stay at second probably not going to live up to his draft spot.

 

I actually really like Lutz. He is a toolsy outfielder with a lot of potential. Honestly he is the type of guy who in 3 years of college ball could be in the mix for Top 10 talk. You will find a lot of Top 10 college bats were ranked 25-100 coming out of high school. It is an attempt to grasp a budding high school guy before he could potentially sky rocket after college.

 

Now when it comes to Lemon I think a lot of people are selling him short. We are talking about a high school kid who is touching 97. He isn't that big and adding to his build will add to that. We could be talking about a guy in the mid 90s consistently hitting 100mph on gun(or close). Not huge on his off speed stuff, but that can improve with time. The guy has really good potential. Ace? Probably not, but I could tell you that about every pitcher in the draft outside of a few handful that were gone in the first half of the draft.

[Ennder]

I enjoy following the draft but the truth is nobody knows, the players just aren't that projectable. I'm sure there were Angels fans who were upset when Trout was drafted instead of their guy. Over half of the players drafted today will not post a positive WAR in the majors. I went back and looked at the 2010 draft since that one should mostly be done producing, there were 11 of the top 30 players I even recognized. Some of that 11 have basically done nothing at the majors. The baseball draft is throwing darts blindfolded and hoping to hit the board. So it is really hard for me to get too pumped up or too upset with who is taken.

[A Swing and A Drive]

The Brewers picks pretty much make me want to puke. Here are my thoughts:

 

1. Hiura - I know many are high on his hit tool. I don't see it. To me, his ceiling is an MLB average second baseman. I would compare him to Rob Refsnyder or Kolton Wong. Decent player but I don't see All-Star potential. I agree with those who see him moving through the system fast and I would have liked him at pick #20+. However, I dont like him in the top 10.

 

2. Lutz - He looks like a football player. I might even compare his body type to Mike Trout, but that is where the comparison to Trout ends. He doesn't have anythwere near the athleticism of Trout. Moreover, I believe his swing is a mess and needs completely reworked.

 

3. Lemons - I actually don't hate this pick. However, my big question is whether his recent velocity tick from 91 to 97 is for real. My big concern is that he upped his velocity without adding much weight. Either way, he is likely 5 years from the bigs. Lots of time to add weight and hammer out the delivery.

 

I hope I'm proven very wrong about Hiura and Lutz. However, I feel the same as I did in 2011 and 2012 with Gray and Gallo, respectively. The Astros got a damn good pitcher at 15. The Pirates and Marlins also did very well with Baz and Rogers at 12 and 13.

 

I agree with this assessment of the Brewers day one day picks. Hard to sugar coat my disappointment.

 

If Hiura doesn't have the arm to play on the left side of the infield. If he doesn't stay at 2B and absolutely rake, Brewers will regret this pick.

 

Lutz could be a nice middle of the order hitter in time but I agree that I don't like his swing. Time to fix it I suppose.

 

Lemons height worries me. Kids that tall almost always have issues repeating delivery and command issues. Would have preferred Sam Carlson who was still on the board.

 

I don't get it.

[Boomer5]

Based on Lutz and Lemons, it doesn't look like Huira was an underslot pick. That's disappointing.

[Eye Black]

A mildly interesting observation, the Brewers have now taken the hitter that led the USA Baseball collegiate team in OPS each of the past two summers in Ray (.971) and Hiura (.910). Admittedly very small sample sizes.

 

There are some interesting comments on Hiura from Eric Longenhagen at the 22:00 minute mark of this podcast from June 12 (yesterday): The Ringer MLB Show: Setting the Scene for the Amateur Draft

[JosephC]

I really like Hiura's bat but the defensive aspect really worries me. If I'm gambling with a player's glove this early in the draft it would have to be someone who projects to be a real masher...someone with 35-40 home run power like Prince Fielder or (on the flip side) Matt LaPorta. Hiura will likely hit, could prove to be a doubles machine, but could be one of those guys that has an offensive WAR of 4.0 that get's played down to a 2.0 if the defense isn't there. If he can't stick at second base I think it will be really hard to justify a #9 pick, hopefully either the defense won't be a problem and/or he'll end up having more pop in his bat than I am anticipating.

 

Really like the Lutz pick. Hit tool is probably the weakest aspect of his game but I still think he'll sit in the .250 - .260 range in the big leagues assuming he doesn't crap out before he gets there. Should make up for that with plus power. I think he could be a Wil Myers type hitter (career slash = .257/.328/.434/.762). Defense doesn't seem to be an issue, probably better than league average in one of the corner outfield spots. I think I would have went with Drew Waters over Lutz but the difference isn't big enough where I'd complain about this pick. Really thought Lutz would go in the 20's and pretty happy to land him at #34.

 

Didn't like the Lemons pick at all. Had the recent increase in velocity but it sounds like his mechanics are a mess and all of his secondary stuff is no better than fringe level at this point. Comes off to me like a Johnny Hellweg type player, a guy that a team messes with as a starter because of all the potential but probably ends up as a setup man if he hits his ceiling. Would have rather gone with someone like Griffin Canning, who may not have the upside but has a good chance to fit in a rotation as a #3 starter based on a real strong track record at UCLA.

[homer]

I haven't read anywhere that Hiura was a bad defender.

[wallus]

Where does Hiura fit in our top 10 list? Someone had to ask...

[Fear The Chorizo]

No matter what 5 minute scouting tape, 'Perfect Game' highlight reel, or 3 paragraph report any poster reads on any player, the truth is there's no way to tell who ends up having the best MLB careers of anyone drafted last night. For every Bryce Harper or Arod drafted 1.1 there are Matt Bushes, Brady Aikens, Luke Hochevars, Bullingtons, etc who end up either flaming out due to injury, personal problems, or just not being able to be all-star caliber players at the big league level.

 

My take on last night's picks has more to do with the current health of the Brewer organization compared to years' past. Just 2-3 seasons ago, the three picks last night would probably move straight to the top of their respective position rankings within the poor Brewer farm system. Now, there are multiple players at 2nd, OF, and P scattered throughout their system that are better prospects today, mainly due to them developing for several years as professionals. The cupboards are far from bare.

 

For the guys drafted last night, I'm hoping it'll take awhile to hear about them doing anything down on the farm...Hiura should get the elbow surgery done ASAP and make a full recovery before taking his 1st minor league AB next season. Lemons should essentially get shut down in terms of pitching and instead get to work on his body and overall arm strength (throwing/long toss program in concert with other training). Lutz needs to get signed and then you let him get some AB's later this year before getting his stance/swing adjusted over the winter to tap into his power potential - he'll struggle initially, but he's got time to develop. Bottom line is, get these kids (20 and two 18 yr olds) set up to succeed starting in 2018 and let the current crop of minor league talent down in rookie ball through A+ continue to sort themselves out.

[CheezWizHed]

Trent Clark is around #8 in the BF.net ratings. I'd guess he would fit in before or after him.

[JosephC]

Looks like last year the guys picked in the 8-10 range ended up being a back end top 100 player. If using the MLB.com list, I'd guess Hiura probably fits in at #6 behind Brinson, Ray, Hader, Ortiz and Diaz.

[82brewcrew82]

Looks like last year the guys picked in the 8-10 range ended up being a back end top 100 player. If using the MLB.com list, I'd guess Hiura probably fits in at #6 behind Brinson, Ray, Hader, Ortiz and Diaz.

 

 

I'd probably slot him 4th behind Hader. You have maybe the best pure hitter in the draft with what projects to be a plus power tool. I haven't seen anyone say they don't think he can play second, just that he hasn't played that spot much so he hasn't been scouted there defensively. If he sticks at second you have an all-star but the bat still plays if he moves to LF.

[82brewcrew82]

Look, sometimes this board gets carried away with who should have been picked where and whatnot. We think we know because we see some stats, see a start on tv or two and a couple of youtube videos. The fact is the Brewers have been tracking, watching and evaluating these kids for years. They have seen them play live multiple times by multiple people. They have interviewed them, their coaches and their families. They have analytics we can't even comprehend. The sheer amount of time and effort that goes into evaluating any one player is mind boggling.

 

Maybe that player busts, maybe that player is marginal, maybe that player becomes a star. Who knows, but the Brewers are not the only club that goes through that process. Half the picks in the second round could be considered reaches or risky even by conservative standards. I, for one, am excited to see the new talent in the system perform. I'll save my judgements of that talent in due time as we all will.

 

I mean, the Brewers have been pretty terrible at drafting for a while. I think people can certainly express their opinion on why they didn't think a certain player was the right pick over a player they wanted.

 

 

Of course they can. I don't recall telling anyone they couldn't. I would think, though, that the other side gets a voice too. Nobody was being attacked or having their opinion silenced.

 

I will say though that the opinion that the Brewers haven't drafted well in a while is a bit of a blanket statement. The current regime hasn't been in place all that long and frankly I think they have done an excellent job of adding talent up and down the system in a number of different ways including the draft.

 

Everyone can have an opinion but there is far more hyperbole coming from the "anti" camp right now.

[Roderick]

I haven't read anywhere that Hiura was a bad defender.

 

No, I suppose you can't state he is a bad defender if he never plays defense. If I am reading right, he was the DH all of this college season and prior to that it sounds like more OF/DH (2B?). Hence the concern if he can play defense or not. Or just hope that the DH comes to the NL the next go around.

[JosephC]

http://www.jsonline.com/story/sports/mlb/brewers/2017/06/13/brewdraft-13/388395001/

 

Sounds like the Brewer's saw video of Hiura playing shortstop in high school and that was enough to convince them that he's a second baseman. I'm really interested in what happened at UC-Irvine...did Hiura move to the outfield because a different player had shortstop locked down or what was it that resulted in the move? Add in the elbow issues and it raises more questions about the defensive aspect.

 

I also am wary about the Brewers likely putting off surgery for him. Even the quote states that there is "uncertainty" with how the rehab will progress. With the early end to the college season it seems like now would be the time to get the elbow right and only lose a minimal amount of at-bats at Wisconsin/Helena. He hurt the elbow in April 2016. He re-injured it in November. 7 months did not fix the problem. The injection allowed him to hit but he could not play the field. Partial tear of the UCL. Sure looks like a long-term issue if not corrected by surgery.